**Mastery Loadouts**
Due to issues related to the release of Mastery Loadouts, the "free swap" period will be extended.
The new end date will be May 1st.
Due to issues related to the release of Mastery Loadouts, the "free swap" period will be extended.
The new end date will be May 1st.
No bleed or poison Vanquishing blow?
Jackie2Cokes
Posts: 199 ★★
Are we to assume this is working as intended that they haven't been rolled?
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The way that this kind of system should always be set up is that the longer we go without a certain event, the more likely it is to happen. It's easy to set up, you just keep a list of all the events, and every day that an event doesn't happen, you raise the odds for that one a little bit. Whenever one happens, it's odds go back to the lowest level. That way it still isn't completely predictable, but the ones that haven't been seen in awhile always have the best odds.
Just depending on pure RNG is a terrible system that will almost always give results like what we're seeing now.
Yes, but not the way you're thinking.
If someone had said, "I think we'll go a long time without bleed and poison," before this month started, then your math would be right. That particular combination is low odds, so guessing it ahead of time would have been impressive.
However, the odds of *something* being skipped for a really long time are actually pretty high. It could have been that we went two weeks without Special 1 and Special 2. It could have been that we went two weeks without Light Attack and Medium Attack. Or Heavy Attack and Special 3. Or Shock and Poison, Bleed and Light attack, Medium Attack and Poison, etc, etc.
Random is streaky. With all the different VBs that they have to choose from, it would actually be unusual for a Random Number Generator to NOT skip one or two things.
Yes, but if we assume that the VB’s follow a uniform distribution meaning that all have the same probability of occurring after the last five are take out, both bleed and poison have a 1/5 chance separately to occur. That means that there is a 3/5 chance that neither occur for each new event given that bleed or poison has been chosen in the past 5 events. That being said, since each day is technically independent (to a certain point) from the previous day, we can then continue to multiple 3/5 by each other for each day that doesn’t have either bleed or poison. For example, 2 days without either given that they haven’t happened in the previous 5 days is (0.6)*(0.6) = 0.36 and so on. Currently, we are on day 12 (nov 19 - nov 2 + 5 days for the condition they have) which gives us (0.6)^12 = 0.002. So a very small chance of happening.
There's a very large chance or some combination of two events not happening.
If there had been a bleed event and a poison event, but there hadn't been a special 1 and a special 2 event, we'd be having this exact same conversation right now.
Get a 10 sided die. See how many rolls it takes to get every number, 1 through 10. The odds are very good that you will get several repeats before you get every number at least once.
This is how random works. Random is streaky. Random is unsatisfying. If you get consistent, satisfying results, it's almost certainly not random.
My prediction is that it will miraculously show up after maintenance tomorrow.
LOL I have the same suspicion, that someone is trying to secretly fix some open-secret bugs that no one is willing to admit, but instead they will secretly fix them hoping no one will notice. After all, players are dumb in the eyes of the developers, right?
Would love to have BLEED and POISON kill VANQUISHING BLOW rolling out soon. Better still, like the idea of KHAOS about "kill via damage over time vanquishing blow"
Just to help with understanding randomness. This might not be the case in this situation but we do not know.. They should have applied a different system.. Maybe on that considers the amount of times a "vanquishing blow" has been activated and reduces its chance to be activated in the next number of times.
@buffajr I disagree. Every single champ has a heavy, medium, sp1, sp2, etc. yet they run solo events for those attacks.
Makes no sense that a bleed vanquishing blow has not come up yet.
i agree. i think they deemed it too easy especially with bleed and so so they left it out.
No way that I believe this is an RNG issue.
Maybe you should be more active?
What device are you using?
TBH, Shock and Incinerate are such garbage.
That means the odds that we have not seen them yet is .1003%. RNG MY ARSE.
This type of game quality and mod support has become a norm especially after v12.0 and after Kabam is taken over by the Korean company, at least this is my perception, although I could be wrong.
Let's revisit this thread again by the end of this Valor event, and see if anyone from Kabam even care to bother, perhaps by then the Mod will close this thread saying it is NO longer relevant as the event has been concluded AS INTENDED.
I'm really looking forward to at least experiencing ONE or TWO of the BLEED and POISON kill events, as what has been advertized, but looks like my wish will not come thru
The next day - literally the next day - after a mod commented, Star Lord appears.
Re-reading the original announcement of Vanquishing Blow quests, there is no suggestion that these are generated randomly - https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com
The fact we haven't seen one commonly inflicted form of DoT could be seen as statistical chance. Not seeing the two commonest forms of DoT seems substantially less likely.
I've complained elsewhere about the difficulty of finishing an opponent of with Incinerate and and Shock; as these typically inflict far less damage than poison or bleed. But i have to admit that even I've got champs that could inflict that damage if I wanted to.
Is immunity the missing issue? No opponent is immune to a light/medium/heavy attack or Shock; and very few are immune to Incinerate.
It's entirely possible that Kabam's team decided not to use Bleed or Poison damage because it was felt there would be resentment about the number of champions immune to bleed and poison making it harder to complete.
I'd say that would be an understandable (but wrong) decision.
It would be nice to hear from a mod on this...
Incinerate, Shock, Special 2, Incinerate (again).
And we have had appearances like these happen a lot.
There are 10 different events...light, medium, heavy, sp1, sp2, sp3, incinerate, bleed, poison and shock
How are you get a 1/4 chance?
Sorry, then it's 2/10 which is 1/5. So, assuming 24 Vanquishing Blow events, the probability to not see bleed or poison is simply calculated by (1-1/5)^24... so it's .47% chance to not see them yet. I mean, either way, it's EXTREMELY unlikely to not see either of these after a sample size of 24. This means it is not working...
Compare this to Hero Use, Level Up, Event Quest Completion, and Arena wins....How often do you not see one of these for 24 days in a row? The odds are EXTREMELY unlikely, which proves that this is bugged.
I don't want to hear about RNG being streaky or any stuff like that when this sample size is high enough. It's broken.
Most likely won’t add nothin to my roaster..
Like legit, you have to do 554 matches on arena to get the final milestone on using 4*, I feel sorry for ppl that don’t have Hyperion & nebula for those events and trying to get those final points...
With the event coming to an end very soon, and judging the current responsiveness and trend, I would assume this "bug" will be ignored until it became irrelevant ...