Should basic crystals temporarily exclude featured crystal contents?

I was thinking about featured crystal contents recently. Featured crystals currently contain six new featured champions and eighteen older champions. Sometimes those older champions are highly desired champs, and sometimes not. One common complaint is that a featured crystal contains many champions that are undesirable. Now, I don't always agree with that assessment, but it occurred to me that for every champion some people will find that champion more desirable and some will find him less desirable. When we take a more desirable champion and stick him into the featured crystal because that crystal has only twenty four options it definitely makes that crystal more desirable (maybe not enough to buy, but still). But for everyone who thinks that same champion is less desirable we've made the crystal itself less valuable. What if we could make every champion crystal decision have some value to everyone?

Suppose that when the featured crystal's contents are chosen, for every non-featured champion that is chosen to be included, that champion is temporarily removed from the corresponding basic crystal. In other words, if Colossus is in the featured crystal this month, he's not in the basic crystal. This could act as a kind of counterbalance when making crystal decisions. Every desired champion in the featured makes the featured more valuable. But every undesired champion in the featured makes the *basic* more valuable, because that champion isn't in the basic at that time.

This isn't a huge change to crystal odds, but it is significant. If you don't want any of the eighteen basic champs in the featured, that can increase the value of the basic crystal to you by something on the order of 15% - 20%. It makes every less valuable champion that shows up in the featured crystal slightly less of a downer. By making the two crystals exclusive, they become more of a distinct choice.

I can't think of an obvious downside, and I don't think this harms the general randomness of the crystals. It mostly adds a silver lining to every featured crystal content list, and gives players something else to think about when making crystal opening choices. But if someone has a downside to this happening, I'd like to know what that might be.

Comments

  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 20,516 ★★★★★
    I wouldn't have any objections to the idea.
  • Timone147Timone147 Posts: 794 ★★★
    edited December 2018
    For me the downside is that for a large period of time the only way to pull or dupe some of previously released strong champs you want will be stuck in the featured crystal for more shards. I wouldn't want to be forced to buy a crystal for 15000 shard for a chance at a champ released a year ago or a chance at duping a champ I want.

    With pulling lackluster champs out of the basic you are also pulling out any of the God and demi god tier champs in the featured as well.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 20,516 ★★★★★
    edited December 2018
    Timone147 wrote: »
    For me the downside is that for a large period of time the only way to pull or dupe some of previously released strong champs you want will be stuck in the featured crystal for more shards. I wouldn't want to be forced to buy a crystal for 15000 shard for a chance at a champ released a year ago or a chance at duping a champ I want.

    With pulling lackluster champs out of the basic you are also pulling out any of the God and demi god tier champs in the featured as well.

    You would have a 1 in 24 chance, as opposed to, say 1 in 120?
  • Timone147 wrote: »
    For me the downside is that for a large period of time the only way to pull or dupe some of previously released strong champs you want will be stuck in the featured crystal for more shards. I wouldn't want to be forced to buy a crystal for 15000 shard for a chance at a champ released a year ago or a chance at duping a champ I want.

    With pulling **** champs out of the basic you are also pulling out any of the God and demi god tier champs in the featured as well.

    If they are in the featured (speaking specifically about the 5* featured here) if you specifically wanted those high value champs wouldn't you go for featured? You have a four times greater chance to get them from the featured than the basic, isn't that worth 50% more shards?

    I'm sure there are more complex calculations involving situations where there are some random number of desirable champs in the featured verses the basic, but does this help in more situations than it hurts overall?

    If your strategy is to simply always open basics period, and never actually consider the featured, then I suppose sometimes this helps and sometimes this hurts. Does having the option to save shards until the pendulum swings your way make up for the long durations when you would not be opening crystals?
  • V1PER1987V1PER1987 Posts: 3,474 ★★★★★
    Timone147 wrote: »
    For me the downside is that for a large period of time the only way to pull or dupe some of previously released strong champs you want will be stuck in the featured crystal for more shards. I wouldn't want to be forced to buy a crystal for 15000 shard for a chance at a champ released a year ago or a chance at duping a champ I want.

    With pulling lackluster champs out of the basic you are also pulling out any of the God and demi god tier champs in the featured as well.

    You would have a 1 in 24 chance, as opposed to, say 1 in 120?

    In any given featured crystal there is roughly 18 champs I would be happy to get, yet I’ve gone 0/19 at this point. The odds are not equal. 19 times in a row I’ve somehow managed to get boned with a 25% chance? Not likely.

    This idea makes it a tiny bit better I guess. Assuming there are in fact 120 champs and 18 of those champs are in the featured champ, it would increase your odds of obtaining a specific champ from 1/120 (.008333) to a whopping 1/102 (.0098). Still not enough of a benefit to be worth the overhaul and potential bugs.
  • V1PER1987 wrote: »
    Timone147 wrote: »
    For me the downside is that for a large period of time the only way to pull or dupe some of previously released strong champs you want will be stuck in the featured crystal for more shards. I wouldn't want to be forced to buy a crystal for 15000 shard for a chance at a champ released a year ago or a chance at duping a champ I want.

    With pulling lackluster champs out of the basic you are also pulling out any of the God and demi god tier champs in the featured as well.

    You would have a 1 in 24 chance, as opposed to, say 1 in 120?

    In any given featured crystal there is roughly 18 champs I would be happy to get, yet I’ve gone 0/19 at this point. The odds are not equal. 19 times in a row I’ve somehow managed to get boned with a 25% chance? Not likely.

    Approximately one in 237.
  • V1PER1987V1PER1987 Posts: 3,474 ★★★★★
    DNA3000 wrote: »
    V1PER1987 wrote: »
    Timone147 wrote: »
    For me the downside is that for a large period of time the only way to pull or dupe some of previously released strong champs you want will be stuck in the featured crystal for more shards. I wouldn't want to be forced to buy a crystal for 15000 shard for a chance at a champ released a year ago or a chance at duping a champ I want.

    With pulling lackluster champs out of the basic you are also pulling out any of the God and demi god tier champs in the featured as well.

    You would have a 1 in 24 chance, as opposed to, say 1 in 120?

    In any given featured crystal there is roughly 18 champs I would be happy to get, yet I’ve gone 0/19 at this point. The odds are not equal. 19 times in a row I’ve somehow managed to get boned with a 25% chance? Not likely.

    Approximately one in 237.

    I think your math is off.
  • OrdalcaOrdalca Posts: 384 ★★
    DNA3000 wrote: »
    V1PER1987 wrote: »
    Timone147 wrote: »
    For me the downside is that for a large period of time the only way to pull or dupe some of previously released strong champs you want will be stuck in the featured crystal for more shards. I wouldn't want to be forced to buy a crystal for 15000 shard for a chance at a champ released a year ago or a chance at duping a champ I want.

    With pulling lackluster champs out of the basic you are also pulling out any of the God and demi god tier champs in the featured as well.

    You would have a 1 in 24 chance, as opposed to, say 1 in 120?

    In any given featured crystal there is roughly 18 champs I would be happy to get, yet I’ve gone 0/19 at this point. The odds are not equal. 19 times in a row I’ve somehow managed to get boned with a 25% chance? Not likely.

    Approximately one in 237.

    How do you get that number? 25% ^ 19 would be 1/2^38, or about 1 in 275 billion.
  • V1PER1987 wrote: »
    DNA3000 wrote: »
    V1PER1987 wrote: »
    Timone147 wrote: »
    For me the downside is that for a large period of time the only way to pull or dupe some of previously released strong champs you want will be stuck in the featured crystal for more shards. I wouldn't want to be forced to buy a crystal for 15000 shard for a chance at a champ released a year ago or a chance at duping a champ I want.

    With pulling lackluster champs out of the basic you are also pulling out any of the God and demi god tier champs in the featured as well.

    You would have a 1 in 24 chance, as opposed to, say 1 in 120?

    In any given featured crystal there is roughly 18 champs I would be happy to get, yet I’ve gone 0/19 at this point. The odds are not equal. 19 times in a row I’ve somehow managed to get boned with a 25% chance? Not likely.

    Approximately one in 237.

    I think your math is off.

    I misread your post: few people want 18 out of 24 as opposed to wanting to avoid 18 out of 24. To be honest, I wish this was a game where I was in a position to be able to request the logs for that activity. That would be noteworthy if it was provable, and it is theoretically provable. But unlikely to be in practical terms by players.
  • V1PER1987V1PER1987 Posts: 3,474 ★★★★★
    Ordalca wrote: »
    DNA3000 wrote: »
    V1PER1987 wrote: »
    Timone147 wrote: »
    For me the downside is that for a large period of time the only way to pull or dupe some of previously released strong champs you want will be stuck in the featured crystal for more shards. I wouldn't want to be forced to buy a crystal for 15000 shard for a chance at a champ released a year ago or a chance at duping a champ I want.

    With pulling lackluster champs out of the basic you are also pulling out any of the God and demi god tier champs in the featured as well.

    You would have a 1 in 24 chance, as opposed to, say 1 in 120?

    In any given featured crystal there is roughly 18 champs I would be happy to get, yet I’ve gone 0/19 at this point. The odds are not equal. 19 times in a row I’ve somehow managed to get boned with a 25% chance? Not likely.

    Approximately one in 237.

    How do you get that number? 25% ^ 19 would be 1/2^38, or about 1 in 275 billion.

    Yes exactly. It’s a little lower than 1 in 237.
    DNA3000 wrote: »
    V1PER1987 wrote: »
    DNA3000 wrote: »
    V1PER1987 wrote: »
    Timone147 wrote: »
    For me the downside is that for a large period of time the only way to pull or dupe some of previously released strong champs you want will be stuck in the featured crystal for more shards. I wouldn't want to be forced to buy a crystal for 15000 shard for a chance at a champ released a year ago or a chance at duping a champ I want.

    With pulling lackluster champs out of the basic you are also pulling out any of the God and demi god tier champs in the featured as well.

    You would have a 1 in 24 chance, as opposed to, say 1 in 120?

    In any given featured crystal there is roughly 18 champs I would be happy to get, yet I’ve gone 0/19 at this point. The odds are not equal. 19 times in a row I’ve somehow managed to get boned with a 25% chance? Not likely.

    Approximately one in 237.

    I think your math is off.

    I misread your post: few people want 18 out of 24 as opposed to wanting to avoid 18 out of 24. To be honest, I wish this was a game where I was in a position to be able to request the logs for that activity. That would be noteworthy if it was provable, and it is theoretically provable. But unlikely to be in practical terms by players.

    As much as I enjoy your skepticism about my truth telling, I assure you I have purchased 19 5* featured crystals and have not been happy with/ranked one of the 19. The odds are pretty crazy, so yes, you’ll forgive me if I don’t truly believe in “RNG”.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 20,516 ★★★★★
    I think that's the fundamental thing about RNG. It doesn't guarantee happy. It guarantees a random outcome based on the odds. In this case, it's a 1 in 24 chance at any.
  • V1PER1987 wrote: »
    Ordalca wrote: »
    DNA3000 wrote: »
    V1PER1987 wrote: »
    Timone147 wrote: »
    For me the downside is that for a large period of time the only way to pull or dupe some of previously released strong champs you want will be stuck in the featured crystal for more shards. I wouldn't want to be forced to buy a crystal for 15000 shard for a chance at a champ released a year ago or a chance at duping a champ I want.

    With pulling lackluster champs out of the basic you are also pulling out any of the God and demi god tier champs in the featured as well.

    You would have a 1 in 24 chance, as opposed to, say 1 in 120?

    In any given featured crystal there is roughly 18 champs I would be happy to get, yet I’ve gone 0/19 at this point. The odds are not equal. 19 times in a row I’ve somehow managed to get boned with a 25% chance? Not likely.

    Approximately one in 237.

    How do you get that number? 25% ^ 19 would be 1/2^38, or about 1 in 275 billion.

    Yes exactly. It’s a little lower than 1 in 237.
    DNA3000 wrote: »
    V1PER1987 wrote: »
    DNA3000 wrote: »
    V1PER1987 wrote: »
    Timone147 wrote: »
    For me the downside is that for a large period of time the only way to pull or dupe some of previously released strong champs you want will be stuck in the featured crystal for more shards. I wouldn't want to be forced to buy a crystal for 15000 shard for a chance at a champ released a year ago or a chance at duping a champ I want.

    With pulling lackluster champs out of the basic you are also pulling out any of the God and demi god tier champs in the featured as well.

    You would have a 1 in 24 chance, as opposed to, say 1 in 120?

    In any given featured crystal there is roughly 18 champs I would be happy to get, yet I’ve gone 0/19 at this point. The odds are not equal. 19 times in a row I’ve somehow managed to get boned with a 25% chance? Not likely.

    Approximately one in 237.

    I think your math is off.

    I misread your post: few people want 18 out of 24 as opposed to wanting to avoid 18 out of 24. To be honest, I wish this was a game where I was in a position to be able to request the logs for that activity. That would be noteworthy if it was provable, and it is theoretically provable. But unlikely to be in practical terms by players.

    As much as I enjoy your skepticism about my truth telling, I assure you I have purchased 19 5* featured crystals and have not been happy with/ranked one of the 19. The odds are pretty crazy, so yes, you’ll forgive me if I don’t truly believe in “RNG”.

    My skepticism comes from two facts. First, I've been here before many times. Statistically speaking the odds of a game player correctly and accurately reporting a statistical anomaly in a video game is extremely small, regardless of how certain their reporting sounds. Second, no featured crystal was loaded with eighteen unambiguously highly desirable champions, so the fact that your featured crystal pulls contained on average eighteen acceptable ones is something specific to your evaluation of them. The game servers could not possibly know which ones you wanted in that circumstance, so even if they were loaded against desirable champions in some way it is highly unlikely they could have loaded the crystals in the correct direction to avoid all of your preferences consistently. Furthermore, we have a lot of publicly available streamed crystal opening data, and there's no evidence that featured champions drop less often than you'd expect statistically, so on top of everything else unless all of your acceptable choices included none of the actual featured champions the only way for the game to be rigged in such a way to generate your reported result and all of the results we can confirm actually happened from video evidence is for the game to be specifically targeting you personally while conveniently avoiding anyone that happens to be recording openings.

    That's not impossible, but I have no problem wearing a sign around my neck calling me skeptical of that result.
  • V1PER1987V1PER1987 Posts: 3,474 ★★★★★
    DNA3000 wrote: »
    V1PER1987 wrote: »
    Ordalca wrote: »
    DNA3000 wrote: »
    V1PER1987 wrote: »
    Timone147 wrote: »
    For me the downside is that for a large period of time the only way to pull or dupe some of previously released strong champs you want will be stuck in the featured crystal for more shards. I wouldn't want to be forced to buy a crystal for 15000 shard for a chance at a champ released a year ago or a chance at duping a champ I want.

    With pulling lackluster champs out of the basic you are also pulling out any of the God and demi god tier champs in the featured as well.

    You would have a 1 in 24 chance, as opposed to, say 1 in 120?

    In any given featured crystal there is roughly 18 champs I would be happy to get, yet I’ve gone 0/19 at this point. The odds are not equal. 19 times in a row I’ve somehow managed to get boned with a 25% chance? Not likely.

    Approximately one in 237.

    How do you get that number? 25% ^ 19 would be 1/2^38, or about 1 in 275 billion.

    Yes exactly. It’s a little lower than 1 in 237.
    DNA3000 wrote: »
    V1PER1987 wrote: »
    DNA3000 wrote: »
    V1PER1987 wrote: »
    Timone147 wrote: »
    For me the downside is that for a large period of time the only way to pull or dupe some of previously released strong champs you want will be stuck in the featured crystal for more shards. I wouldn't want to be forced to buy a crystal for 15000 shard for a chance at a champ released a year ago or a chance at duping a champ I want.

    With pulling lackluster champs out of the basic you are also pulling out any of the God and demi god tier champs in the featured as well.

    You would have a 1 in 24 chance, as opposed to, say 1 in 120?

    In any given featured crystal there is roughly 18 champs I would be happy to get, yet I’ve gone 0/19 at this point. The odds are not equal. 19 times in a row I’ve somehow managed to get boned with a 25% chance? Not likely.

    Approximately one in 237.

    I think your math is off.

    I misread your post: few people want 18 out of 24 as opposed to wanting to avoid 18 out of 24. To be honest, I wish this was a game where I was in a position to be able to request the logs for that activity. That would be noteworthy if it was provable, and it is theoretically provable. But unlikely to be in practical terms by players.

    As much as I enjoy your skepticism about my truth telling, I assure you I have purchased 19 5* featured crystals and have not been happy with/ranked one of the 19. The odds are pretty crazy, so yes, you’ll forgive me if I don’t truly believe in “RNG”.

    My skepticism comes from two facts. First, I've been here before many times. Statistically speaking the odds of a game player correctly and accurately reporting a statistical anomaly in a video game is extremely small, regardless of how certain their reporting sounds. Second, no featured crystal was loaded with eighteen unambiguously highly desirable champions, so the fact that your featured crystal pulls contained on average eighteen acceptable ones is something specific to your evaluation of them. The game servers could not possibly know which ones you wanted in that circumstance, so even if they were loaded against desirable champions in some way it is highly unlikely they could have loaded the crystals in the correct direction to avoid all of your preferences consistently. Furthermore, we have a lot of publicly available streamed crystal opening data, and there's no evidence that featured champions drop less often than you'd expect statistically, so on top of everything else unless all of your acceptable choices included none of the actual featured champions the only way for the game to be rigged in such a way to generate your reported result and all of the results we can confirm actually happened from video evidence is for the game to be specifically targeting you personally while conveniently avoiding anyone that happens to be recording openings.

    That's not impossible, but I have no problem wearing a sign around my neck calling me skeptical of that result.

    There is a universally agreed upon pool of undesired champs whether you choose to believe it or not. That data is within the game from what champs people use in Story Quests, EQ, AQ, and AW. People are not using Hulkbusters and Rhino in quests or war and the game knows it. Now I’m not trying to imply the game itself has a conscious mind and is intentionally programming my crystals to only pull them, but I really find it hard to believe on any level that there’s no weighted odds. I can accept a bad string of pulls, but when I’m expected to have ~14 decent champs out of 19 attempts and I have 0, forgive me but thinking something is sketchy. Even 5/19 would be ok as I would still be working on ranking some of them. But zero out of 19, no sir. Don’t feed me manure and tell me it’s chocolate. I should have just as good a chance to get a good champ as bad (even more so, 75% chance). So forgive me if I have a very legimate belief that the RNG in this game is seriously flawed.
  • V1PER1987 wrote: »
    There is a universally agreed upon pool of undesired champs whether you choose to believe it or not.

    Name them.
  • ẞlооdẞlооd Posts: 1,347 ★★★
    I like the idea. It really should be implemented. I usually go for basic as I'm mainly running 4*s still, so it would be nice if a small fraction was removed for the featured.

    But I will say I believe the game is designed to make money as it's FTP. They do need to make a profit somehow. I just hope they still listen to us summoners at least sometimes..
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 20,516 ★★★★★
    edited December 2018
    V1PER1987 wrote: »
    DNA3000 wrote: »
    V1PER1987 wrote: »
    Ordalca wrote: »
    DNA3000 wrote: »
    V1PER1987 wrote: »
    Timone147 wrote: »
    For me the downside is that for a large period of time the only way to pull or dupe some of previously released strong champs you want will be stuck in the featured crystal for more shards. I wouldn't want to be forced to buy a crystal for 15000 shard for a chance at a champ released a year ago or a chance at duping a champ I want.

    With pulling lackluster champs out of the basic you are also pulling out any of the God and demi god tier champs in the featured as well.

    You would have a 1 in 24 chance, as opposed to, say 1 in 120?

    In any given featured crystal there is roughly 18 champs I would be happy to get, yet I’ve gone 0/19 at this point. The odds are not equal. 19 times in a row I’ve somehow managed to get boned with a 25% chance? Not likely.

    Approximately one in 237.

    How do you get that number? 25% ^ 19 would be 1/2^38, or about 1 in 275 billion.

    Yes exactly. It’s a little lower than 1 in 237.
    DNA3000 wrote: »
    V1PER1987 wrote: »
    DNA3000 wrote: »
    V1PER1987 wrote: »
    Timone147 wrote: »
    For me the downside is that for a large period of time the only way to pull or dupe some of previously released strong champs you want will be stuck in the featured crystal for more shards. I wouldn't want to be forced to buy a crystal for 15000 shard for a chance at a champ released a year ago or a chance at duping a champ I want.

    With pulling lackluster champs out of the basic you are also pulling out any of the God and demi god tier champs in the featured as well.

    You would have a 1 in 24 chance, as opposed to, say 1 in 120?

    In any given featured crystal there is roughly 18 champs I would be happy to get, yet I’ve gone 0/19 at this point. The odds are not equal. 19 times in a row I’ve somehow managed to get boned with a 25% chance? Not likely.

    Approximately one in 237.

    I think your math is off.

    I misread your post: few people want 18 out of 24 as opposed to wanting to avoid 18 out of 24. To be honest, I wish this was a game where I was in a position to be able to request the logs for that activity. That would be noteworthy if it was provable, and it is theoretically provable. But unlikely to be in practical terms by players.

    As much as I enjoy your skepticism about my truth telling, I assure you I have purchased 19 5* featured crystals and have not been happy with/ranked one of the 19. The odds are pretty crazy, so yes, you’ll forgive me if I don’t truly believe in “RNG”.

    My skepticism comes from two facts. First, I've been here before many times. Statistically speaking the odds of a game player correctly and accurately reporting a statistical anomaly in a video game is extremely small, regardless of how certain their reporting sounds. Second, no featured crystal was loaded with eighteen unambiguously highly desirable champions, so the fact that your featured crystal pulls contained on average eighteen acceptable ones is something specific to your evaluation of them. The game servers could not possibly know which ones you wanted in that circumstance, so even if they were loaded against desirable champions in some way it is highly unlikely they could have loaded the crystals in the correct direction to avoid all of your preferences consistently. Furthermore, we have a lot of publicly available streamed crystal opening data, and there's no evidence that featured champions drop less often than you'd expect statistically, so on top of everything else unless all of your acceptable choices included none of the actual featured champions the only way for the game to be rigged in such a way to generate your reported result and all of the results we can confirm actually happened from video evidence is for the game to be specifically targeting you personally while conveniently avoiding anyone that happens to be recording openings.

    That's not impossible, but I have no problem wearing a sign around my neck calling me skeptical of that result.

    There is a universally agreed upon pool of undesired champs whether you choose to believe it or not. That data is within the game from what champs people use in Story Quests, EQ, AQ, and AW. People are not using Hulkbusters and Rhino in quests or war and the game knows it. Now I’m not trying to imply the game itself has a conscious mind and is intentionally programming my crystals to only pull them, but I really find it hard to believe on any level that there’s no weighted odds. I can accept a bad string of pulls, but when I’m expected to have ~14 decent champs out of 19 attempts and I have 0, forgive me but thinking something is sketchy. Even 5/19 would be ok as I would still be working on ranking some of them. But zero out of 19, no sir. Don’t feed me manure and tell me it’s chocolate. I should have just as good a chance to get a good champ as bad (even more so, 75% chance). So forgive me if I have a very legimate belief that the RNG in this game is seriously flawed.

    Not exactly accurate. People use both those Champs in modes like War. I myself use Rhino because he's Duped, and the Armor is decent.
    The game is not intelligently altering pulls based on popularly. I understand you're having a string of bad luck, but all that shows is the RNG is working as intended. It's not meant to give what we want every pull. It can't predict what we're going for and what we're not. That's just skeptical at best.
  • ẞlооd wrote: »
    I like the idea. It really should be implemented. I usually go for basic as I'm mainly running 4*s still, so it would be nice if a small fraction was removed for the featured.

    But I will say I believe the game is designed to make money as it's FTP. They do need to make a profit somehow. I just hope they still listen to us summoners at least sometimes..

    I think you could make the case that this idea is relatively revenue neutral. Technically anything that gives any amount of control over rewards to players contains some seed of reducing revenue, but that can be counterbalanced a bit by making people more enthusiastic about participation in general. This swings control only slightly towards the players, so it doesn't need to be counterbalanced by a large swing in enthusiasm. Even a tiny amount might be enough to be considered a wash.

    Also, the reward system in the game ratchets upward slowly: things slowly get easier to earn over time. I'd argue that the small increase in reward control this offers would be ultimately buried in the overall reward increases the game is designed to crank upward over time as part of natural progression.
  • V1PER1987V1PER1987 Posts: 3,474 ★★★★★
    V1PER1987 wrote: »
    DNA3000 wrote: »
    V1PER1987 wrote: »
    Ordalca wrote: »
    DNA3000 wrote: »
    V1PER1987 wrote: »
    Timone147 wrote: »
    For me the downside is that for a large period of time the only way to pull or dupe some of previously released strong champs you want will be stuck in the featured crystal for more shards. I wouldn't want to be forced to buy a crystal for 15000 shard for a chance at a champ released a year ago or a chance at duping a champ I want.

    With pulling lackluster champs out of the basic you are also pulling out any of the God and demi god tier champs in the featured as well.

    You would have a 1 in 24 chance, as opposed to, say 1 in 120?

    In any given featured crystal there is roughly 18 champs I would be happy to get, yet I’ve gone 0/19 at this point. The odds are not equal. 19 times in a row I’ve somehow managed to get boned with a 25% chance? Not likely.

    Approximately one in 237.

    How do you get that number? 25% ^ 19 would be 1/2^38, or about 1 in 275 billion.

    Yes exactly. It’s a little lower than 1 in 237.
    DNA3000 wrote: »
    V1PER1987 wrote: »
    DNA3000 wrote: »
    V1PER1987 wrote: »
    Timone147 wrote: »
    For me the downside is that for a large period of time the only way to pull or dupe some of previously released strong champs you want will be stuck in the featured crystal for more shards. I wouldn't want to be forced to buy a crystal for 15000 shard for a chance at a champ released a year ago or a chance at duping a champ I want.

    With pulling lackluster champs out of the basic you are also pulling out any of the God and demi god tier champs in the featured as well.

    You would have a 1 in 24 chance, as opposed to, say 1 in 120?

    In any given featured crystal there is roughly 18 champs I would be happy to get, yet I’ve gone 0/19 at this point. The odds are not equal. 19 times in a row I’ve somehow managed to get boned with a 25% chance? Not likely.

    Approximately one in 237.

    I think your math is off.

    I misread your post: few people want 18 out of 24 as opposed to wanting to avoid 18 out of 24. To be honest, I wish this was a game where I was in a position to be able to request the logs for that activity. That would be noteworthy if it was provable, and it is theoretically provable. But unlikely to be in practical terms by players.

    As much as I enjoy your skepticism about my truth telling, I assure you I have purchased 19 5* featured crystals and have not been happy with/ranked one of the 19. The odds are pretty crazy, so yes, you’ll forgive me if I don’t truly believe in “RNG”.

    My skepticism comes from two facts. First, I've been here before many times. Statistically speaking the odds of a game player correctly and accurately reporting a statistical anomaly in a video game is extremely small, regardless of how certain their reporting sounds. Second, no featured crystal was loaded with eighteen unambiguously highly desirable champions, so the fact that your featured crystal pulls contained on average eighteen acceptable ones is something specific to your evaluation of them. The game servers could not possibly know which ones you wanted in that circumstance, so even if they were loaded against desirable champions in some way it is highly unlikely they could have loaded the crystals in the correct direction to avoid all of your preferences consistently. Furthermore, we have a lot of publicly available streamed crystal opening data, and there's no evidence that featured champions drop less often than you'd expect statistically, so on top of everything else unless all of your acceptable choices included none of the actual featured champions the only way for the game to be rigged in such a way to generate your reported result and all of the results we can confirm actually happened from video evidence is for the game to be specifically targeting you personally while conveniently avoiding anyone that happens to be recording openings.

    That's not impossible, but I have no problem wearing a sign around my neck calling me skeptical of that result.

    There is a universally agreed upon pool of undesired champs whether you choose to believe it or not. That data is within the game from what champs people use in Story Quests, EQ, AQ, and AW. People are not using Hulkbusters and Rhino in quests or war and the game knows it. Now I’m not trying to imply the game itself has a conscious mind and is intentionally programming my crystals to only pull them, but I really find it hard to believe on any level that there’s no weighted odds. I can accept a bad string of pulls, but when I’m expected to have ~14 decent champs out of 19 attempts and I have 0, forgive me but thinking something is sketchy. Even 5/19 would be ok as I would still be working on ranking some of them. But zero out of 19, no sir. Don’t feed me manure and tell me it’s chocolate. I should have just as good a chance to get a good champ as bad (even more so, 75% chance). So forgive me if I have a very legimate belief that the RNG in this game is seriously flawed.

    Not exactly accurate. People use both those Champs in modes like War. I myself use Rhino because he's Duped, and the Armor is decent.
    The game is not intelligently altering pulls based on popularly. I understand you're having a string of bad luck, but all that shows is the RNG is working as intended. It's not meant to give what we want every pull. It can't predict what we're going for and what we're not. That's just skeptical at best.

    Actually no it doesn’t show RNG is working as intended. If RNG was working as intended I wouldn’t constantly get bad pulls. Just like RNG wouldn’t be working if I only got god tier pulls. But I give up. You and DNA are right and RNG is perfect.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 20,516 ★★★★★
    V1PER1987 wrote: »
    V1PER1987 wrote: »
    DNA3000 wrote: »
    V1PER1987 wrote: »
    Ordalca wrote: »
    DNA3000 wrote: »
    V1PER1987 wrote: »
    Timone147 wrote: »
    For me the downside is that for a large period of time the only way to pull or dupe some of previously released strong champs you want will be stuck in the featured crystal for more shards. I wouldn't want to be forced to buy a crystal for 15000 shard for a chance at a champ released a year ago or a chance at duping a champ I want.

    With pulling lackluster champs out of the basic you are also pulling out any of the God and demi god tier champs in the featured as well.

    You would have a 1 in 24 chance, as opposed to, say 1 in 120?

    In any given featured crystal there is roughly 18 champs I would be happy to get, yet I’ve gone 0/19 at this point. The odds are not equal. 19 times in a row I’ve somehow managed to get boned with a 25% chance? Not likely.

    Approximately one in 237.

    How do you get that number? 25% ^ 19 would be 1/2^38, or about 1 in 275 billion.

    Yes exactly. It’s a little lower than 1 in 237.
    DNA3000 wrote: »
    V1PER1987 wrote: »
    DNA3000 wrote: »
    V1PER1987 wrote: »
    Timone147 wrote: »
    For me the downside is that for a large period of time the only way to pull or dupe some of previously released strong champs you want will be stuck in the featured crystal for more shards. I wouldn't want to be forced to buy a crystal for 15000 shard for a chance at a champ released a year ago or a chance at duping a champ I want.

    With pulling lackluster champs out of the basic you are also pulling out any of the God and demi god tier champs in the featured as well.

    You would have a 1 in 24 chance, as opposed to, say 1 in 120?

    In any given featured crystal there is roughly 18 champs I would be happy to get, yet I’ve gone 0/19 at this point. The odds are not equal. 19 times in a row I’ve somehow managed to get boned with a 25% chance? Not likely.

    Approximately one in 237.

    I think your math is off.

    I misread your post: few people want 18 out of 24 as opposed to wanting to avoid 18 out of 24. To be honest, I wish this was a game where I was in a position to be able to request the logs for that activity. That would be noteworthy if it was provable, and it is theoretically provable. But unlikely to be in practical terms by players.

    As much as I enjoy your skepticism about my truth telling, I assure you I have purchased 19 5* featured crystals and have not been happy with/ranked one of the 19. The odds are pretty crazy, so yes, you’ll forgive me if I don’t truly believe in “RNG”.

    My skepticism comes from two facts. First, I've been here before many times. Statistically speaking the odds of a game player correctly and accurately reporting a statistical anomaly in a video game is extremely small, regardless of how certain their reporting sounds. Second, no featured crystal was loaded with eighteen unambiguously highly desirable champions, so the fact that your featured crystal pulls contained on average eighteen acceptable ones is something specific to your evaluation of them. The game servers could not possibly know which ones you wanted in that circumstance, so even if they were loaded against desirable champions in some way it is highly unlikely they could have loaded the crystals in the correct direction to avoid all of your preferences consistently. Furthermore, we have a lot of publicly available streamed crystal opening data, and there's no evidence that featured champions drop less often than you'd expect statistically, so on top of everything else unless all of your acceptable choices included none of the actual featured champions the only way for the game to be rigged in such a way to generate your reported result and all of the results we can confirm actually happened from video evidence is for the game to be specifically targeting you personally while conveniently avoiding anyone that happens to be recording openings.

    That's not impossible, but I have no problem wearing a sign around my neck calling me skeptical of that result.

    There is a universally agreed upon pool of undesired champs whether you choose to believe it or not. That data is within the game from what champs people use in Story Quests, EQ, AQ, and AW. People are not using Hulkbusters and Rhino in quests or war and the game knows it. Now I’m not trying to imply the game itself has a conscious mind and is intentionally programming my crystals to only pull them, but I really find it hard to believe on any level that there’s no weighted odds. I can accept a bad string of pulls, but when I’m expected to have ~14 decent champs out of 19 attempts and I have 0, forgive me but thinking something is sketchy. Even 5/19 would be ok as I would still be working on ranking some of them. But zero out of 19, no sir. Don’t feed me manure and tell me it’s chocolate. I should have just as good a chance to get a good champ as bad (even more so, 75% chance). So forgive me if I have a very legimate belief that the RNG in this game is seriously flawed.

    Not exactly accurate. People use both those Champs in modes like War. I myself use Rhino because he's Duped, and the Armor is decent.
    The game is not intelligently altering pulls based on popularly. I understand you're having a string of bad luck, but all that shows is the RNG is working as intended. It's not meant to give what we want every pull. It can't predict what we're going for and what we're not. That's just skeptical at best.

    Actually no it doesn’t show RNG is working as intended. If RNG was working as intended I wouldn’t constantly get bad pulls. Just like RNG wouldn’t be working if I only got god tier pulls. But I give up. You and DNA are right and RNG is perfect.

    What you're not acknowledging is the common denominator is you. What I mean by that is, you're the one determining what is a good pull and what is a bad pull. The system just generates a random outcome. It's not intelligently predicting what you need or want and what you don't. To the best of my knowledge, it's not even capable of that in an instantaneous fashion. You click. It generates. It doesn't analyze your Roster, spending habits, game habits, or any other factor. There isn't a separate algorithm for different Players. It is just RNG.
  • ẞlооdẞlооd Posts: 1,347 ★★★
    DNA3000 wrote: »
    ẞlооd wrote: »
    I like the idea. It really should be implemented. I usually go for basic as I'm mainly running 4*s still, so it would be nice if a small fraction was removed for the featured.

    But I will say I believe the game is designed to make money as it's FTP. They do need to make a profit somehow. I just hope they still listen to us summoners at least sometimes..

    I think you could make the case that this idea is relatively revenue neutral. Technically anything that gives any amount of control over rewards to players contains some seed of reducing revenue, but that can be counterbalanced a bit by making people more enthusiastic about participation in general. This swings control only slightly towards the players, so it doesn't need to be counterbalanced by a large swing in enthusiasm. Even a tiny amount might be enough to be considered a wash.

    Also, the reward system in the game ratchets upward slowly: things slowly get easier to earn over time. I'd argue that the small increase in reward control this offers would be ultimately buried in the overall reward increases the game is designed to crank upward over time as part of natural progression.
    Yeah you have good points there. I agree with you. I guess now we wait and see. CoC is a game of wait after all..

    Overall I think they can be a little more generous. What are your thoughts on the 6* crystal champs? Because that is end game atm and there are plenty of champs in there that just don't help anyone's roster besides arena. Most people besides huge whales don't have many 6*s so it's quite the build up and understandably frustrating to grind for so long for a DXF.
  • I like the idea. My main reason for not going for featured crystals is, a) too expensive, and b) because the basic pool has *all* the gods, not just a few. The one enticing part is when champs that haven’t been released to the basic are in the featured. Temporarily taking some champs out of the basic and putting them in a featured is smart, because it essentially makes them an exclusive champ.

    That, and everyone can cheer a little when kabam puts colossus and hulk buster in the featured, which will ease complaints of them throwing in “trash.” Just go for the conservative play (basic) over the high risk-high reward featured with the best and the worst.
  • ẞlооd wrote: »
    DNA3000 wrote: »
    ẞlооd wrote: »
    I like the idea. It really should be implemented. I usually go for basic as I'm mainly running 4*s still, so it would be nice if a small fraction was removed for the featured.

    But I will say I believe the game is designed to make money as it's FTP. They do need to make a profit somehow. I just hope they still listen to us summoners at least sometimes..

    I think you could make the case that this idea is relatively revenue neutral. Technically anything that gives any amount of control over rewards to players contains some seed of reducing revenue, but that can be counterbalanced a bit by making people more enthusiastic about participation in general. This swings control only slightly towards the players, so it doesn't need to be counterbalanced by a large swing in enthusiasm. Even a tiny amount might be enough to be considered a wash.

    Also, the reward system in the game ratchets upward slowly: things slowly get easier to earn over time. I'd argue that the small increase in reward control this offers would be ultimately buried in the overall reward increases the game is designed to crank upward over time as part of natural progression.
    Yeah you have good points there. I agree with you. I guess now we wait and see. CoC is a game of wait after all..

    Overall I think they can be a little more generous. What are your thoughts on the 6* crystal champs? Because that is end game atm and there are plenty of champs in there that just don't help anyone's roster besides arena. Most people besides huge whales don't have many 6*s so it's quite the build up and understandably frustrating to grind for so long for a DXF.

    While I certainly don't think the 6* rollout was perfect, I do think compared to the 5* roll out their impact on the game is far better overall. Consider that when 5* champions arrived the rank up bottleneck resource was T4CC. And you needed T4CC to rank up 4* champs to 5/50 and also 5* champs to 3/45, which had similar strength. So if you were stuck behind the T4CC bottleneck and couldn't rank to 5/50, landing your first 5* didn't help matters. All you could do is rank it up to 2/35 and let it play with your other 4/40s. But today the equivalent rank up bottleneck is T2 alpha. It takes a lot of them to rank 5* champs to 4/55, but a 6* champion doesn't need them to rank up to 1/25. In effect, for most players their first 6* champion is *at least* a 4/55-level champion right out of the box, bypassing the T2 alpha bottleneck.

    So while you could argue that for many players there are many 6* champs that have very little utility beyond arena grinding, I'd bet for the vast majority of players most 6* champions have some positive impact on their rosters, and almost certainly a bigger impact than similar players got from their first 5* champion when they were introduced. It isn't perfect, but it is better.

    Also, like it or not but the arena is a significant component of this game. And you don't need to spend dozens of hours in the arena to get decent rewards. The current iteration of the arenas didn't exist when 5* champions were first introduced, so another benefit 6* champs have that 5* champs did not have is that they score a huge amount of points in, say, the 5* featured arena. And you don't need to grind for the top scores to get 5* shards from lower milestone and rank rewards. For players that are constrained on T2A, earning as many 5* shards as possible is a backdoor way of bypassing the T2A bottleneck because duping 5* champions earns 6* shards, and 6* shards bypass the T2A bottleneck at least to the equivalent of 4/55.

    And while people often point to the whales as having a huge advantage in 6* champs over normal players, I actually think the reverse is closer to the truth. The Crystal Opening Whale has 23 6* champions for the cost of a small house. I have 5. Is that really a huge advantage in the game relative to the cost? That's a matter of opinion, but I happen to think that's a very small advantage relative to the cost. He's spent hundreds of times more than I have, but his account isn't hundreds of times more powerful. Because compared to how fast you can earn 6* champions through regular gameplay, they are incredibly expensive to try to buy (indirectly).

    While I can sympathize with people who get bad luck drops from 6* crystals (or any crystal really) when I look at 6* champions on the whole, I think more players get more out of them than originally with 5* crystals, and in non-trivial ways. In the long run I think luck will average out better for more players than 5* champs did.
  • Mitchell35 wrote: »
    I like the idea. My main reason for not going for featured crystals is, a) too expensive, and b) because the basic pool has *all* the gods, not just a few. The one enticing part is when champs that haven’t been released to the basic are in the featured. Temporarily taking some champs out of the basic and putting them in a featured is smart, because it essentially makes them an exclusive champ.

    That, and everyone can cheer a little when kabam puts colossus and hulk buster in the featured, which will ease complaints of them throwing in “trash.” Just go for the conservative play (basic) over the high risk-high reward featured with the best and the worst.

    Instead of "save for Blade" there would be "save for She Hulk, Colossus, and Iron Patriot" except instead of saving to open that crystal, you'd be saving to open the basic crystal that didn't contain them.

    And for all that we complain about some champs being better or worse than others, the devs respond to data better. If they put a bunch of champs into the featured crystal and it spikes a huge increase in opening the basic specifically to avoid them, that would give them a much stronger data signal as to who they might need to buff next. How we choose to spend our shards would be a very strong signal to the devs if that spending was connected to an actual player choice.
  • ẞlооdẞlооd Posts: 1,347 ★★★
    @DNA3000

    Ok I like the optimism. I won't say too much on 6*s as I'm not quite there yet but your logic does make sense. I'm mainly here to learn from the vets haha.

    Anyways, hopefully your idea gets implemented because 5*as are still the most relevant.

    Thanks for the response!
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