Arena crystals give no more units??
endryu
Member Posts: 66 ★
I just opened 52 arena crystals and 0 units, they dont give anymore units?? Its first time i get 0 from that much units
6
Comments
60% unit drop rate is just a big fat lie
5-10-even 100 crystals arent a reliable sample size...
I've had a real life experience where I won 7 straight times on a roulette table in a row, and if it weren't for the nice lady asking "Would you like to cash out some of your chips?" I probably would have lost everything. I didn't even know how much I had won up until that moment I cashed it all out. I'm not much of a real life gambler.
While the odds are extremely low for it to happen, it's not impossible. Improbable yes, impossible no.
I'm at the more realistic side of things here...60%unit drop rate ,can not stay the same when you open a few thousand crystals in total
This is a common problem in statistics. The probability of something happening before it happens is calculable. The probability of something happening that has already happened is always 100%. Because it happened. The past is always certain. It is only the future that can be assigned a probability, because probability is a measure of uncertainty. Colloquially we often use these terms synonymously, but that's only reasonable when we're talking about generalities. Once we start taking about technical statistical specifics, using the wrong words leads to entirely wrong places.
The biggest mistake in statistics is when someone tries to calculate the probability of something that has already happened as if it hasn't happened yet, and that calculation makes the wrong assumptions. It is the root of problems like when someone pulls two Starlords in a row and says the odds against that happening are one in ten thousand (or so). But that makes the assumption that you were trying to pull Starlord both times randomly. The odds of pulling two specific champs in a row is about one in ten thousand (assuming about one hundred different champs). But the odds of pulling *any* champ twice is only one in a hundred. What's worse, while the odds of pulling Starlord twice in a row is one in ten thousand, the odds of pulling Spider Gwen followed by Hulkbuster is the exact same odds: one in ten thousand. The difference is that pulling SL twice is *notable* while pulling two other random champs back to back tends to be not notable.
When we look at the past we tend to automatically filter for notability. But filtering for notability after the fact breaks the fundamentals of statistical calculation.
You must have been betting on odds or evens or colors. That couldn’t have been individual numbers or you are one of the top 100 wealthiest people in the world now.
Having said that, I have noticed a drop in units from arena crystals since the most recent update. I have literally received 0 units from all of the crystals I have opened since the update.
If you say "I opened one and it was units, so 100% of my openings was units so about 100% of all the crystals contain units" then that would be a statistical analysis, and a horribly incorrect one, in any language.
I, usually, get over 500k gold and 800 units.