I don't always save up a 100,000 battle chips...

MMCskippyMMCskippy Posts: 311 ★★
But when I do...

I'm guaranteed to get skunked on units when I buy 10 Uncollected Battle Crystals.

Can you say "Waste of time"?

It's like the rifts... except different.

Comments

  • V1PER1987V1PER1987 Posts: 3,416 ★★★★★
    I used to only open UC arena crystals until a buddy said you get better odds of units in the regular arena crystals. I just opened these the other day and was pleasantly surprised. I think regular arena crystals it is from now on.


  • CrispyCrispy Posts: 35
    All different times in the same week, I have plenty of luck with uncollected arena crystals


  • Ch1efsterCh1efster Posts: 457 ★★
    About 2 months ago, I saved up 2m battle chips. I split them evenly between regular and uncollected. Got a little over 1900 units from 100 Uncollected crystals, gold and 5 energy refills. In the 500 regular, I got just over 1700 units, gold and 1 energy refill. Oddly enough, I did not get 1 punisher in any of them....even a 3*.
  • CoatHang3rCoatHang3r Posts: 2,322 ★★★★
    TwmR said:

    Bear3 said:

    Lol screenshotting your three lucky pulls to post when it serves you doesn’t mean they’re the way to go. It’s been tested and shown regular is the way to go for units and uc for gold. Matter settled. It is known. Any further comments are just meant to be argumentative.... see now it’s hard to write something else 😂😉

    It has not been shown at all. The expected units and gold per battlechip is exactly the same for regular and uc
    But someone opened 500 regs and 100 uncollected and did maths! /s

    Would think you’d want to compare the average of 500 against 500, but eh controversy>science on the YTs.

  • InfinityM04InfinityM04 Posts: 117
    Did someone really just called RNG "science"?
  • DiablosUltimateDiablosUltimate Posts: 1,009 ★★★
    TwmR said:

    Bear3 said:

    Lol screenshotting your three lucky pulls to post when it serves you doesn’t mean they’re the way to go. It’s been tested and shown regular is the way to go for units and uc for gold. Matter settled. It is known. Any further comments are just meant to be argumentative.... see now it’s hard to write something else 😂😉

    It has not been shown at all. The expected units and gold per battlechip is exactly the same for regular and uc
    Yeah, if you ignore the fact that you have 10 times more tries with regular crystals than with uncollected ones
  • CharlieMurphyKCCharlieMurphyKC Posts: 66
    I'm gonna keep opening UC arena crystals until I get at least 1 5* punisher.

    The odds are 1/5000, not sure how many I've opened but definitely not 5k yet.
  • Joseri123Joseri123 Posts: 1
    G
  • Dexman1349Dexman1349 Posts: 3,060 ★★★★★
    edited June 13
    The drop rates are identical between regular and UC.

    The perception is that you get more units from regular stems from the fact that you pull units more frequently simply because you're opening more crystals. Do not confuse frequency of pulls with quantity of units though. When you open 5x more crystals with the regular, it will naturally feel like you're pulling more units. However, you're getting only 1/5th of what you would pull from a UC.

    This turns into a similar debate between Stable vs Unstable rifts. Over the long run, they tend to average out to about the same payouts, but when you look at it in the micro-scale the Stable are the more consistent payouts. When the Unstable hits though, it's more than worth it.

    For those of us who grind a lot of arenas, it doesn't matter which ones you open because you're beating the RNG with pure volume. The only other reason to pull the UC ones (and my reason for going for them) is the inclusion of Punisher in the drop rates. Both my 3* and 4* Punishers are max sig and I'd love to dupe my 5* which is only found in the UC crystals.

    For those who only open a few at in-frequent intervals, the regular ones tend to be the safer option.
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 7,967 Guardian
    edited June 13

    TwmR said:

    Bear3 said:

    Lol screenshotting your three lucky pulls to post when it serves you doesn’t mean they’re the way to go. It’s been tested and shown regular is the way to go for units and uc for gold. Matter settled. It is known. Any further comments are just meant to be argumentative.... see now it’s hard to write something else 😂😉

    It has not been shown at all. The expected units and gold per battlechip is exactly the same for regular and uc
    Yeah, if you ignore the fact that you have 10 times more tries with regular crystals than with uncollected ones
    No, the expected units per battlechip is the same for both crystals if you correctly account for the fact that you have ten times more tries with regular crystals for one tenth the number of units per try.

    Note: it is, of course, five times the try for one fifth the reward in actuality.
  • Dexman1349Dexman1349 Posts: 3,060 ★★★★★
    DNA3000 said:

    TwmR said:

    Bear3 said:

    Lol screenshotting your three lucky pulls to post when it serves you doesn’t mean they’re the way to go. It’s been tested and shown regular is the way to go for units and uc for gold. Matter settled. It is known. Any further comments are just meant to be argumentative.... see now it’s hard to write something else 😂😉

    It has not been shown at all. The expected units and gold per battlechip is exactly the same for regular and uc
    Yeah, if you ignore the fact that you have 10 times more tries with regular crystals than with uncollected ones
    No, the expected units per battlechip is the same for both crystals if you correctly account for the fact that you have ten times more tries with regular crystals for one tenth the number of units per try.
    Correction, the ratio is 1:5. Not 1:10.
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 7,967 Guardian

    DNA3000 said:

    TwmR said:

    Bear3 said:

    Lol screenshotting your three lucky pulls to post when it serves you doesn’t mean they’re the way to go. It’s been tested and shown regular is the way to go for units and uc for gold. Matter settled. It is known. Any further comments are just meant to be argumentative.... see now it’s hard to write something else 😂😉

    It has not been shown at all. The expected units and gold per battlechip is exactly the same for regular and uc
    Yeah, if you ignore the fact that you have 10 times more tries with regular crystals than with uncollected ones
    No, the expected units per battlechip is the same for both crystals if you correctly account for the fact that you have ten times more tries with regular crystals for one tenth the number of units per try.
    Correction, the ratio is 1:5. Not 1:10.
    Yep, the thought popped into my head just as I was walking away from my computer.
  • CrispyCrispy Posts: 35
    Bear3 said:

    Lol screenshotting your three lucky pulls to post when it serves you doesn’t mean they’re the way to go. It’s been tested and shown regular is the way to go for units and uc for gold. Matter settled. It is known. Any further comments are just meant to be argumentative.... see now it’s hard to write something else 😂😉

    Couldn’t care less. I was just stating my luck with them. No point to be proven, no stats, just my experience bud. I just have excellent pulls with uc. In MY experience.
  • Spurgeo14Spurgeo14 Posts: 1,135 ★★★

    TwmR said:

    Bear3 said:

    Lol screenshotting your three lucky pulls to post when it serves you doesn’t mean they’re the way to go. It’s been tested and shown regular is the way to go for units and uc for gold. Matter settled. It is known. Any further comments are just meant to be argumentative.... see now it’s hard to write something else 😂😉

    It has not been shown at all. The expected units and gold per battlechip is exactly the same for regular and uc
    Yeah, if you ignore the fact that you have 10 times more tries with regular crystals than with uncollected ones
    It's 5 more tries, but I have had better luck with the regulars.
  • InfinityM04InfinityM04 Posts: 117
    I think I opened 20 UC BC the other day and I got a 5* punisher, 600K gold and 800 units. And my units and golds that I've received has always been pretty rewarding so, also from MY personal experience, UC is better :wink:
  • MMCskippyMMCskippy Posts: 311 ★★
    For a while, I've been strictly only pulling regular crystals in 10 packs and then taking a screenshot afterwards. I have 91 screen shots.

    Of those 91, 14 were pulls that rewarded no units. I'm not sure if that's tracking with the drop rates or not, but I don't want to figure it out until my sample size gets bigger.

    I'm going to switch back to regular and keep taking pictures and eventually create a histogram that tracks the # (out of 10) of crystals that dropped units... There are two 120 unit pulls (8 of 10 of the pack dropped units) in my sample now. There are a bunch of 15 and 30 unit pictures. I just want to see what the distribution really ends up being.

    For the record: There are ZERO, 10 out of 10 credit drop pulls in my small collection (150 units).

    With the UC variety, me hitting credits has been a rarity. I had a weird situation where I found myself with 50k of chips and then just thought: I'll just save up for a 10 pack of UC's... Maybe I'll get 1 or 2 of the 10 pack to drop units?

    Who has the time to get a decent sample size of UC's? That's a lot of arena grinding!
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 7,967 Guardian

    Did someone really just called RNG "science"?

    Actually, I consider random number generators to fall in the category of computational science. That might be my first edition Numerical Recipes in C showing.

    The fact that the study of randomness and random number generators is a science doesn't mean it gets treated properly on the forums. It tends not to.
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 7,967 Guardian
    MMCskippy said:

    For a while, I've been strictly only pulling regular crystals in 10 packs and then taking a screenshot afterwards. I have 91 screen shots.

    Of those 91, 14 were pulls that rewarded no units. I'm not sure if that's tracking with the drop rates or not, but I don't want to figure it out until my sample size gets bigger.

    Fair enough. For the record, the odds of pulling no units out of ten crystals is about 19.69%. That means out of 91 sets of pulls the expected number of pulls with no units is 17.9. The margin for error on that sample size is about 4.2. So I would expect to see something between 13.7 and 22.1 pulls with no units most of the time I conduct an experiment with 91 sets of pulls. Call it between 14 and 22.

    I have been accumulating BCs for a while now, waiting to see if an SA appears. I always open uncollected crystals, so at some point there could be a way to compare the two with large numbers. But of course someone who wants to can also look for streamed arena crystal openings and compare those. They have to have been originally streamed or uploaded by someone that consistently uploads without cherry picking so the data can't be influenced by upload-bias.
  • Dexman1349Dexman1349 Posts: 3,060 ★★★★★
    MMCskippy said:

    For a while, I've been strictly only pulling regular crystals in 10 packs and then taking a screenshot afterwards. I have 91 screen shots.

    Of those 91, 14 were pulls that rewarded no units. I'm not sure if that's tracking with the drop rates or not, but I don't want to figure it out until my sample size gets bigger.

    I'm going to switch back to regular and keep taking pictures and eventually create a histogram that tracks the # (out of 10) of crystals that dropped units... There are two 120 unit pulls (8 of 10 of the pack dropped units) in my sample now. There are a bunch of 15 and 30 unit pictures. I just want to see what the distribution really ends up being.

    For the record: There are ZERO, 10 out of 10 credit drop pulls in my small collection (150 units).

    With the UC variety, me hitting credits has been a rarity. I had a weird situation where I found myself with 50k of chips and then just thought: I'll just save up for a 10 pack of UC's... Maybe I'll get 1 or 2 of the 10 pack to drop units?

    Who has the time to get a decent sample size of UC's? That's a lot of arena grinding!

    To be completely accurate, you have to see how many crystals dropped units. Not how many bulk openings did or how many total units you received.

    To further complicate the drop rate discussion is the fact that there are two types of gold and two types of units drops. Overall, there is a 15% chance to drop units and an 85% chance for gold (ignoring the small chances for Punisher or energy refills). Within those chances to drop units and gold, you can pull either the base amount or an even rarer large amount.

    For example, in the UC crystals can drop 75 units as the base or a rare pull of 225 units. Similarly, the regular crystals drop 15 or 45. So when you open 10 regular crystals and see 90 units, that could mean you pulled units from either 2 (2x rare units), 4 (1x rare + 3x base) or 6 (6x base)crystals depending on the rarity of the unit drops for success rate between 20 and 60%.

    Figuring out how many crystals dropped gold or units and which were base or rare drops makes determining your actual success rate very difficult. When opening stacks of UC crystals, it's common to see 225 units but until I look at how much gold I got I don't know if I got units from 3 crystals or from only 1.
  • MMCskippyMMCskippy Posts: 311 ★★
    This all makes sense.

    Now... if someone could tell me the odds of me pulling 40% XP boosts out of the last 3 greater solo crystals AND the last 3 lesser solo crystals I can at least feel special about such a crappy event. The last 6 solo crystals I’ve opened have been 40% XP boosts. I guess that’s just what the solo crystals drop now!
  • Hopper99Hopper99 Posts: 80
    Thats why I only open the regular ones. Less chance of getting skunked. 1st time ever saving up 100k and opened today.


  • DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 7,967 Guardian

    MMCskippy said:

    For a while, I've been strictly only pulling regular crystals in 10 packs and then taking a screenshot afterwards. I have 91 screen shots.

    Of those 91, 14 were pulls that rewarded no units. I'm not sure if that's tracking with the drop rates or not, but I don't want to figure it out until my sample size gets bigger.

    I'm going to switch back to regular and keep taking pictures and eventually create a histogram that tracks the # (out of 10) of crystals that dropped units... There are two 120 unit pulls (8 of 10 of the pack dropped units) in my sample now. There are a bunch of 15 and 30 unit pictures. I just want to see what the distribution really ends up being.

    For the record: There are ZERO, 10 out of 10 credit drop pulls in my small collection (150 units).

    With the UC variety, me hitting credits has been a rarity. I had a weird situation where I found myself with 50k of chips and then just thought: I'll just save up for a 10 pack of UC's... Maybe I'll get 1 or 2 of the 10 pack to drop units?

    Who has the time to get a decent sample size of UC's? That's a lot of arena grinding!

    To be completely accurate, you have to see how many crystals dropped units. Not how many bulk openings did or how many total units you received.
    Yes, that does make analysis problematic. This occurred to me while watching Prof Hoffs arena crystal video. It is impossible to reverse calculate the drop odds from that video, only the rate of return.
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