What’s the story with Arenas?

BigPoppaCBONEBigPoppaCBONE Posts: 1,144 ★★★★
Why are these 5 star repeat nobodies like Darkhawk still cutting-off so high? Even trash commons like Red Skull are too high to be people actually wanting them, so what’s the deal?

New champs with some buzz, I get. Champs with no buzz at all that are known to suck, it doesn’t make sense.

Comments

  • DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 10,241 Guardian
    Darkhawk is a nobody?

    Darkhawk went for between 36 and 38 million. That's the current normal cutoff for medium desirable champs. Red Skull went for between 26 and 29 million. That's the current normal for below average but less common champs. Those numbers are almost certainly the result of increasing numbers of 6* champs being used in the arena. Heck even I can do 26 million now without too much difficulty if I really tried: just cycling my 6* champs alone six times in a three day event generates about eleven million points in less than two hours of play. That's total, not per day. There's quite a few people out there with twice my roster doing twenty million points without even trying.
  • CassyCassy Posts: 691 ★★
    Not everybody deems them trash?

    Collectors?

    Beginners?

    For starters
  • 5* and 6* Shards. As well as Battlechips (which == UNITS). If they stopped giving out Battlechips as Fight/Match Rewards (say after reaching the final Milestone in that Arena), then I’d bet the cutoffs would be a lot lower.
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 10,241 Guardian

    5* and 6* Shards. As well as Battlechips (which == UNITS). If they stopped giving out Battlechips as Fight/Match Rewards (say after reaching the final Milestone in that Arena), then I’d bet the cutoffs would be a lot lower.

    Probably not. Back when I used to analyze arena data, it was clear that there was a limited group of players actually trying for the top rewards (this was in the pre-12.0 arenas mostly). If you charted the distribution of points (back when we had more data) you'd see there was a cluster of players from the top and descending towards and through the cutoff point, and then a dramatic fall off to a lower plateau of players that were aiming for the lower rank percentage cutoffs. There were fewer people than you'd perhaps expect between the two cutoffs, because the tendency was to either do just enough to get over the percentage hurdle plus a little more, or push all the way up. Eliminating BC rewards wouldn't stop the people at the top from pushing to win, and it wouldn't stop the people pushing to the lower cutoff from trying, it would just remove the few people in the middle just going for BC.

    Probably easier to show than describe:



    That's one I did a long time ago. You can see there's a rapid fall off in scores from the top and then it levels out. Then there's another sudden falloff in scores until you reach about two million. That's the Gwenpool arena from 2017, and the featured cutoff was about 14 million, the basic cutoff was about 5 million, and the 3* cutoff was about 2.5 million. The data hints at the consensus guestimates for that arena with people pushing to get between six and eight million, or else mostly giving up past about three million.

    My guess is that arena scores probably still do something like this, but we no longer have enough data to confirm it.
  • BigPoppaCBONEBigPoppaCBONE Posts: 1,144 ★★★★
    DNA3000 said:

    Darkhawk is a nobody?

    In terms of current desirable standout champs, yes. He’s an easily replaceable mid-card jobber.
    DNA3000 said:



    Darkhawk went for between 36 and 38 million. That's the current normal cutoff for medium desirable champs. Red Skull went for between 26 and 29 million. That's the current normal for below average but less common champs. Those numbers are almost certainly the result of increasing numbers of 6* champs being used in the arena. Heck even I can do 26 million now without too much difficulty if I really tried: just cycling my 6* champs alone six times in a three day event generates about eleven million points in less than two hours of play. That's total, not per day. There's quite a few people out there with twice my roster doing twenty million points without even trying.

    The nth time around for a midlevel champ 36-38 million is pretty high. More work than I want to put into acquiring an older champ I already have with less upside than other champs I already have.

    It shouldn’t be battlechips and units because they’re easier to get in the other arenas.

  • DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 10,241 Guardian

    DNA3000 said:

    Darkhawk is a nobody?

    In terms of current desirable standout champs, yes. He’s an easily replaceable mid-card jobber.
    The reason you're puzzled by the arena scores is you seem to have two classifications for champions: "desirable standouts" and "nobodies" but the actual people grinding arena have more nuance.
  • Mathking13Mathking13 Posts: 877 ★★★
    lol I clicked on this thread thinking it was someone asking the lore reasoning behind arenas...
    but yeah anything between around 35-40M suggests a champion that is moderately desirable by the community.
  • BigPoppaCBONEBigPoppaCBONE Posts: 1,144 ★★★★
    DNA3000 said:

    DNA3000 said:

    Darkhawk is a nobody?

    In terms of current desirable standout champs, yes. He’s an easily replaceable mid-card jobber.
    The reason you're puzzled by the arena scores is you seem to have two classifications for champions: "desirable standouts" and "nobodies" but the actual people grinding arena have more nuance.
    Kudos on being smug but also condescending in only one sentence. Usually it takes several paragraphs.
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 10,241 Guardian

    DNA3000 said:

    DNA3000 said:

    Darkhawk is a nobody?

    In terms of current desirable standout champs, yes. He’s an easily replaceable mid-card jobber.
    The reason you're puzzled by the arena scores is you seem to have two classifications for champions: "desirable standouts" and "nobodies" but the actual people grinding arena have more nuance.
    Kudos on being smug but also condescending in only one sentence. Usually it takes several paragraphs.
    In this case, you did most of the heavy lifting.
  • BigPoppaCBONEBigPoppaCBONE Posts: 1,144 ★★★★
    DNA3000 said:

    DNA3000 said:

    DNA3000 said:

    Darkhawk is a nobody?

    In terms of current desirable standout champs, yes. He’s an easily replaceable mid-card jobber.
    The reason you're puzzled by the arena scores is you seem to have two classifications for champions: "desirable standouts" and "nobodies" but the actual people grinding arena have more nuance.
    Kudos on being smug but also condescending in only one sentence. Usually it takes several paragraphs.
    In this case, you did most of the heavy lifting.
    Honestly I don’t think anyone has to do much assisting to get high-level smug condescension out of you, but I’ll take that as a compliment from the master.

    Anyway, I would think that repeat champs that don’t have much special use at this time would be closer to the final milestone.
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 10,241 Guardian

    I would think that repeat champs that don’t have much special use at this time would be closer to the final milestone.

    For at least the past year there's been a very strong pattern of the low desirable champs being around the low 20's, rising over time to the high 20s; moderate desirable champs generally being around the mid to high 30s; and the top champs being 60+. Darkhawk follows the general pattern of a relatively new champion with moderate desirability and moderate utility.

    The lowest it has been recently was 18 and 22 million for Civil Warrior which was predictable as he's a very low desirability champ. But even King Groot went for 25 million and Cable went for 24 and 26 million.

    Darkhawk is more useful and desirable than you're acknowledging which is why his score is higher than you seem to think it should be. But also, no champ is going to go for what you seem to think Darkhawk should go for, because featured cutoff scores have been much higher than the last milestone for over a year and a half. In the last 18 months the only champs going for under 20 million were Cyclops (19 and 22 million), Diablo (18 million), Doc Oc (17 and 21 million) and Ant-Man (19 million).

    The last time a champ went for anything close to the last milestone (12 million) was Corvus Glaive in April of 2018 who went for 14 million, and that was clearly one of those weird glitches that sometimes happens when everyone thinks it isn't worth shooting for because the score will be too high, so ironically no one goes for him because in round two he went for 30 million.

    It has actually *never* happened in the history of the current arena system post 12.0 that a featured 5* champ went for anywhere near the last cutoff in both rounds. The lowest combined cutoff was probably Jane Foster in February of 2018 who went for 15 and 20 million. No featured champ has gone for less since, not even Hulkbuster (19 and 20 million).

    Also, the cutoff for 2000 5* shards has also been rising steadily over time: it currently sits just under 15 million. No featured champ is likely to ever go for lower than that no matter how trash people think it is.
  • KattohSKattohS Posts: 549 ★★
    MCOC forums.....always good for a math lesson.
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