You're essentially charging a fixed 2 1/2 4* for an 80% chance to get a 4* anyway. As someone with a packed roster, I'm now getting less four star champs (which I don't need anyway), but more importantly, I'm likely getting 550 less 5* shards. Math...Assuming that you don’t care one bit about any more 4* champs because you have most of them anyways (except for using 5* Shards you get from pulling 4* Dups), and your 5* are exceeding your 4* in strength because you’re starting to take those 5* champs to higher ranks ...Getting a Dup 4* would give only 275 shards toward 5*.Let's do calculations based on buying 5 of these Legendary black market crystals (since over the long haul doing 5 of them will average out to pulling one 5* champ from them).———5 Legendaries will cost you 25,000x 4* Shards.(on average) you will pull one whole 5* champ (which otherwise equates to 10,000x 5* Shards cost), and will also give you another 1100x 5* Shards (4 * 275) from the (assumed) 4* Dups of the rest.Versus using 25,000x 4* Shards all on normal 4* crystals.You would get (assumed Dups, and even rounding up to 26,000) 3575x 5* Shards (13 * 275).And let’s give the benefit of doubt that maybe 8 of the 13 will have also been Max Sig as well, that would be another 2200x 5* Shards. For a total of only 5775x 5* Shards.— Summary —So buying 5 Legendaries would have given you (on average) the equivalent of 11,100x 5* Shards. In the form of an actual 5* champ plus another 1100x (at a minimum, because didn’t even account for potential MaxSig from those 4 other Legendaries that gave you 4* Dups).Versus using them as 4* would have only received around 5775x 5* Shards. That's about half as much as if you bought the black market Legendaries instead. 1) Your math is horrible, as you miss certain factors like max six gems that can net a total of 550 5* shards for each duped.2) Your math assumes you are guaranteed a 5* out of 5 crystals. However, RNG is fickle and there is a strong chance you will get 0 for the five Legendary. People have a 15% of a 5* from a Cavalier... how many actual get 1 out of 10 crystals?The issue is perceived probability versus actual probability. Your actual chance of getting a 5* on each crystal is still 80%. Pick up two 10-sided dice and roll them 5 times. While there is a 20% chance you will roll 80+ (one being the first number and the second die being the lower number), when you roll the dice the second time the previous roll does not increase your odds. In mathematics, the probability resets on each and every roll. There is a statistical probability that out of five attempts you will get the 20%, but it isn’t guaranteed.Also, when you factor dupes and max sigs crystals, you need to double the 5* shards for many players that have extensive rosters. I have all 4* and almost all are max sig. many players that have been in the game 4+ years are in similar position as this.Sorry to burst your theory, but it does not adequately reflect what actually will be experienced by many. Most people will not save up 5 legendaries... and on 5 independent attempts, most will get 5 @ 4* and not receive the 5* shards you are claiming. While statistically they should, in actuality... they will most likely not.
You're essentially charging a fixed 2 1/2 4* for an 80% chance to get a 4* anyway. As someone with a packed roster, I'm now getting less four star champs (which I don't need anyway), but more importantly, I'm likely getting 550 less 5* shards. Math...Assuming that you don’t care one bit about any more 4* champs because you have most of them anyways (except for using 5* Shards you get from pulling 4* Dups), and your 5* are exceeding your 4* in strength because you’re starting to take those 5* champs to higher ranks ...Getting a Dup 4* would give only 275 shards toward 5*.Let's do calculations based on buying 5 of these Legendary black market crystals (since over the long haul doing 5 of them will average out to pulling one 5* champ from them).———5 Legendaries will cost you 25,000x 4* Shards.(on average) you will pull one whole 5* champ (which otherwise equates to 10,000x 5* Shards cost), and will also give you another 1100x 5* Shards (4 * 275) from the (assumed) 4* Dups of the rest.Versus using 25,000x 4* Shards all on normal 4* crystals.You would get (assumed Dups, and even rounding up to 26,000) 3575x 5* Shards (13 * 275).And let’s give the benefit of doubt that maybe 8 of the 13 will have also been Max Sig as well, that would be another 2200x 5* Shards. For a total of only 5775x 5* Shards.— Summary —So buying 5 Legendaries would have given you (on average) the equivalent of 11,100x 5* Shards. In the form of an actual 5* champ plus another 1100x (at a minimum, because didn’t even account for potential MaxSig from those 4 other Legendaries that gave you 4* Dups).Versus using them as 4* would have only received around 5775x 5* Shards. That's about half as much as if you bought the black market Legendaries instead.
You're essentially charging a fixed 2 1/2 4* for an 80% chance to get a 4* anyway. As someone with a packed roster, I'm now getting less four star champs (which I don't need anyway), but more importantly, I'm likely getting 550 less 5* shards.
You're essentially charging a fixed 2 1/2 4* for an 80% chance to get a 4* anyway. As someone with a packed roster, I'm now getting less four star champs (which I don't need anyway), but more importantly, I'm likely getting 550 less 5* shards. Math...Assuming that you don’t care one bit about any more 4* champs because you have most of them anyways (except for using 5* Shards you get from pulling 4* Dups), and your 5* are exceeding your 4* in strength because you’re starting to take those 5* champs to higher ranks ...Getting a Dup 4* would give only 275 shards toward 5*.Let's do calculations based on buying 5 of these Legendary black market crystals (since over the long haul doing 5 of them will average out to pulling one 5* champ from them).———5 Legendaries will cost you 25,000x 4* Shards.(on average) you will pull one whole 5* champ (which otherwise equates to 10,000x 5* Shards cost), and will also give you another 1100x 5* Shards (4 * 275) from the (assumed) 4* Dups of the rest.Versus using 25,000x 4* Shards all on normal 4* crystals.You would get (assumed Dups, and even rounding up to 26,000) 3575x 5* Shards (13 * 275).And let’s give the benefit of doubt that maybe 8 of the 13 will have also been Max Sig as well, that would be another 2200x 5* Shards. For a total of only 5775x 5* Shards.— Summary —So buying 5 Legendaries would have given you (on average) the equivalent of 11,100x 5* Shards. In the form of an actual 5* champ plus another 1100x (at a minimum, because didn’t even account for potential MaxSig from those 4 other Legendaries that gave you 4* Dups).Versus using them as 4* would have only received around 5775x 5* Shards. That's about half as much as if you bought the black market Legendaries instead. 1) Your math is horrible, as you miss certain factors like max six gems that can net a total of 550 5* shards for each duped.2) Your math assumes you are guaranteed a 5* out of 5 crystals. However, RNG is fickle and there is a strong chance you will get 0 for the five Legendary. People have a 15% of a 5* from a Cavalier... how many actual get 1 out of 10 crystals?The issue is perceived probability versus actual probability. Your actual chance of getting a 5* on each crystal is still 80%. Pick up two 10-sided dice and roll them 5 times. While there is a 20% chance you will roll 80+ (one being the first number and the second die being the lower number), when you roll the dice the second time the previous roll does not increase your odds. In mathematics, the probability resets on each and every roll. There is a statistical probability that out of five attempts you will get the 20%, but it isn’t guaranteed.Also, when you factor dupes and max sigs crystals, you need to double the 5* shards for many players that have extensive rosters. I have all 4* and almost all are max sig. many players that have been in the game 4+ years are in similar position as this.Sorry to burst your theory, but it does not adequately reflect what actually will be experienced by many. Most people will not save up 5 legendaries... and on 5 independent attempts, most will get 5 @ 4* and not receive the 5* shards you are claiming. While statistically they should, in actuality... they will most likely not. Fundamentally speaking, people who are only going to buy one or two crystals, either because they psychologically give up on them or because they don't play long enough or subscribe to the Sigil long enough, could have a high chance of "falling behind" the break even point for the Legendary crystal, but those players also lose practically nothing in the exchange. Someone only buying one or two crystals are changing their progress plus or minus an insignificance amount. More to the point, they aren't trusting the odds. They were expecting to lose, and they gave up as soon as they lost. That's not the odds that did that, that was dependent behavior that did that. That is irrelevant to the value of the crystal. If you're that guy, don't buy them at all.The question is, or at least should be, if someone actually does the objective evaluation and buys purely based on the best expected value, what are the odds that they will nevertheless lose by buying Legendary crystals over the long haul. That's also calculable. To "break even" on the cost of the crystal requires something between one in 12 and one in 24 crystals to be a 5*, depending on what percentage of your 4* roster is at max sig. The more max sig crystals you get on average from 4* champs, the more valuable 4* champs are (within this context) and the less valuable Legendary crystals are by comparison. But the best case scenario for Legendary crystals is you never get max sig, which means 24.2 is the break even, and the worst case scenario is you always get max sig in which case 12.1 is the break even. That's compared to the average drop rate which is one in five.If you buy the Legendary crystal every week for 48 weeks (just under one year), the odds of falling behind by pulling fewer 5* champs than necessary to match the shard rate of just buying 4* champs is thus between one in 127 and one in 3449. Those aren't the odds of pulling *no* 5* champs, just the odds of pulling fewer than necessary to break even with just buying 4* champs.If you're just going to give up after one pull, don't bother: you have an 80% chance of losing shards and then quitting. That's probably not worth the trouble. If you're going to pull them consistently, the odds that this will turn out to be a losing decision in the long run is less than one in a hundred, and for most players probably less than one in a thousand. If you're afraid to play a random game in which 126 out of 127 players win because you think you're going to be that one guy out of 127 then you shouldn't play any game with random odds in it, or you're living in a Final Destination movie.In general when the odds favor you in a game, the longer you play the more likely you'll be ahead of the game than behind, even though random chance says there's no guarantee. Billion dollar casinos are built on this premise. In effect, casinos bet huge amounts of money on games of chance where the odds favor them far less than the Legendary crystal favors players. And that's why they are billion dollar casinos and most players end up losing: they understand odds and players don't. In this case, players who think the Legendary crystal isn't worth it are in effect believing they can beat the odds in a casino: because not buying the crystal is a form of risk-taking. You're buying an inferior reward (4* champs) believing that the odds favor doing that. They don't, and that's a form of self-applied penalty.
While I agree with your breakdown of the odds on the legendary crystal I still have to argue that the cost is too high for the additional resources lost. Even if all your champs aren't max sig you are giving up a lot of iso and a small amount of gold for every 4* dupe you would have pulled. While you may pull a 5* 1 out of 5 crystals the lost iso and gold makes the cost too high in a resource reliant game. With the cost of rankups increasing as your game progression continues and rankup resources become more easily obtained this crystal seems like a short term gain at best with it's high cost. There is still value in the sigil if you are willing to trade cash for time when gathering resources but this crystal seems to be a poor addition to the sigil. I dont see it changing the value in the sigil but I fail to see where it adds anything to intice new people to purchase it.
Please study the Gambler’s Fallacy first:https://study.com/academy/lesson/gamblers-fallacy-example-definition-quiz.htmlThe odds never change. It doesn’t matter what came first, if the pulls are 5 over 5 months... or five in the same day. The odds on every single opening is 80% that you will get a 4*. While on average, yes a 1 in 5 chance exists in the coding, it is NOT guaranteed. So, all the theoretical math being used as actual fact is hogwash.The Gambler’s Fallacy is why you have billion dollar casinos and billion dollar mobile game companies. You are programmed to think that over time you WILL hit. However, the odds are not in your favor and regardless of the math on paper, you can not escape that ever pull is not in your favor and you only have a 20% chance for a five star on each pull.You are a very smart person, but in this... you are flat wrong. There are some that will beat the odds, and those that may never pull a 5*. But telling people they will in every 5 pulls is Deceptive at best.
Quote...The Gambler’s Fallacy is why you have billion dollar casinos and billion dollar mobile game companies. You are programmed to think that over time you WILL hit. However, the odds are not in your favor and regardless of the math on paper, you can not escape that ever pull is not in your favor and you only have a 20% chance for a five star on each pull.No, Casino Odds DO NOT promise that over a long enough time that the odds will tend towards you ever making money, instead it is just the opposite. Ie, Roulette is actually 38 spots (black/red 1-36, but then 2 extra green 0 and 00). So even if the odds of landing on a certain number are 1 to 36 (not sure, maybe it is even 1 to 35 ?) even though there are 38 possibilities, that means statistically the sum total to infinite plays is always a LOSS.The sum total to infinite pulls of Legendary Crystals is actually better than sticking with 4* crystals, at least as far as 5* Heroes and/or Shards are concerned (unless you always save up 5* Shards to use towards buying 15000 Feature 5* versions instead). And it could even be that statistically the ISO and Gold is probably close as well (or nonetheless, it is not such of a disadvantage with Legendary as to be the reason you would stick with doing 4* crystals).
If we are going to risk getting a 4* at 80% why not make the trade in 10k 3* shards? I could justify that. But spending 2 guaranteed 4*’s worth of shards for 1 4* seems counterintuitive to me.
If we are going to risk getting a 4* at 80% why not make the trade in 10k 3* shards? I could justify that. But spending 2 guaranteed 4*’s worth of shards for 1 4* seems counterintuitive to me. That would be stupid. But that is not what the trade is. To be honest, I don't mind doing the calculations and informing people of what the value of the trade is, because math iz hard. But there's a part of me that also thinks if people want to ignore the math and make badly informed decisions, that just means everyone who goes with the math will get farther ahead of the people who goes with their gut, and that's an appropriate way for the universe to reward good judgment.Well, something between 126 out of 127 people and 3448 out of 3449 people will get farther ahead. I'll take those odds any day.
thanks, i hate it. also, how about you go ahead and fix the price of that legendary crystal before i laugh so hard my eyeballs fall out. thx.
That legendary crystal is a terrible deal. I'll never buy it. 2.5 4*s to get another 4*? No thanks
Please study the Gambler’s Fallacy first:https://study.com/academy/lesson/gamblers-fallacy-example-definition-quiz.htmlThe odds never change. It doesn’t matter what came first, if the pulls are 5 over 5 months... or five in the same day. The odds on every single opening is 80% that you will get a 4*. While on average, yes a 1 in 5 chance exists in the coding, it is NOT guaranteed. So, all the theoretical math being used as actual fact is hogwash.The Gambler’s Fallacy is why you have billion dollar casinos and billion dollar mobile game companies. You are programmed to think that over time you WILL hit. However, the odds are not in your favor and regardless of the math on paper, you can not escape that ever pull is not in your favor and you only have a 20% chance for a five star on each pull.You are a very smart person, but in this... you are flat wrong. There are some that will beat the odds, and those that may never pull a 5*. But telling people they will in every 5 pulls is Deceptive at best. The fact that you're mentioning this at all tells me you don't understand probability or the Gambler's Fallacy or my post. In fact you couldn't have even skimmed lightly over my post. I actually calculate the odds of not pulling enough 5* champs to break even and yet you're accusing me of believing that the results of the crystal openings will always be the statistical average. That's literally not understanding anything about this topic at all.Nowhere do I say that people are guaranteed to pull a 5* in every five pulls. That is the exact opposite of what I said. This is what happens when someone tries to pretend to understand a subject but is just Googling their way through a conversation.
We appreciate any constructive feedback you can offer. Simply saying "thanks, i hate it" doesn't really tell us what your full thoughts are. Thanks in advance for clarifying! @Kabam Vydious Let me explain it this way...let’s there was a dinner buffet you kinda liked, they had some stuff there, but just enough to keep you coming back. Then one day you went to this buffet, the the stuff you liked wasn’t there anymore, and was replaced with something you’d never put on your plate. And when you asked management, why? You got one of these 🤷🏻♂️Don’t frequent buffets, Same here...Or let’s say you signed up for those monthly Prize Crates where, and $10 a month was just enough to keep you subscribed. And one month you opened the box and the stuff you actually liked getting was cut in half and replaced with a board game, something you’d never use. And when you asked why? You got one of these 🤷🏼Don’t subscribe to that stuff, me neither...Ok, let’s say you go to a gym, and for $10 a month, it’s open all day and night. Small place, but you were able to do cardio and lift weights and do aerobics, you used all three....one day you walked in, and one of the three aspects was replaced with something you’d never use. When you asked why, you got one of these 🤷♀️Don’t work out? Ok, np, let’s say you purchased a monthly bus pass, and rather than taking you to your destination where you had to walk three blocks, now you gotta walk a 6-blocks even though the driver passes your old drop off, and when you asked why...well, hopefully you get the point by now.You took something that most people barely felt was worth buying due to the fact that you have to use items to level up champs and go through resources like crazy just to even make it worth buying and made it worse. Hope that helps
We appreciate any constructive feedback you can offer. Simply saying "thanks, i hate it" doesn't really tell us what your full thoughts are. Thanks in advance for clarifying!
@neotekno @CoatHang3r I hope it's okay to tag you guys and you don't mind it.I'm one of the sigil holder with expiry in next 3 days. I wanted to use this last week resources, but now i could only buy 2k red shards instead of the normal 3k red shards from 4 star shards earlier. So basically i lost 1k red shards. This change should have affected my account once i renewed the sigil and not to already active sigil. And the legendary crystal is a total ripoff. I can't remember even once i opened a 5 star from it. And must have opened 100s. I agree it's just an additional stuff and you aren't bound to buy it. But when it's added, PPL are bound to do mistake of buying it and later repent on it. It should never be visible. If you get 4 star from the legendary crystal then you are basically at a disadvantage than the non sigil members, is that what sigil will represent now on? 80% chance (which really goes to 100%) sigil members being at disadvantage than non sigil members? I really think they should reduce it to 2k 4 star shards.
@DNA3000 , in your last, are you saying that 1 out of 12 of getting a 5* out of legendary (or 1 out of 24 if not at Max Sig territory yet) would be the minimum rate of getting lucky with 5* draws to make it more worthwhile than just buying basic 4* crystals ?? (just trying to understand what the 12 or 24 numbers represent).
And the legendary crystal is a total ripoff. I can't remember even once i opened a 5 star from it. And must have opened 100s. I agree it's just an additional stuff and you aren't bound to buy it. But when it's added, PPL are bound to do mistake of buying it and later repent on it. It should never be visible. If you get 4 star from the legendary crystal then you are basically at a disadvantage than the non sigil members, is that what sigil will represent now on? 80% chance (which really goes to 100%) sigil members being at disadvantage than non sigil members? I really think they should reduce it to 2k 4 star shards.