@DNA3000 and I am not saying that you are saying people will get it in 12 tries. However, the person that I commented to original did say you should get 1 5* out of 5 and used that to show how many 5* shards you would get.
ON AVERAGE.... guess you’re unfamiliar with the concept.
@Anurag1606 lol....how are sigil owners at a disadvantage over other ppl? That doesn't even make sense. Do u buy the sigil every month? Were u planning on getting it next month? I highly doubt u have opened hundreds of legendary crystals and never got a single 5*. Sounds like u are exaggerating a little bit about that. Also why would they reduce the cost to just 2k shards. Then it would be stupid not to get it because u are guaranteed to get at least the 4* champ u originally would and a chance at a 5* champ.
I was at a disadvantage of not getting 3k red shards if it were the usual. Instead i got 2k shards. What I'm saying is they should have instituted the new rules to the PPL when they get a fresh sigil. And regarding if I'm going to buy again or not is totally immaterial. And yes i remember vividly of not getting any 5 stars from any legendary crystals ever. And obviously I have opened many many, maybe amounting to 100. Obviously I'm not counting it right. It's just a statement to say that i have opened many and i have never got a 5 star and I'm also not saying that i will never. Ofcourse i may get but the chance is really slim seeing my past luck. It can vary for others. Don't hold on to literal statement of 100. It just means i have opened many.
I'm not sure what the issue with the price is or how people arrived at 3k. In a hypothetical where someone has good luck, you would essentially be turning 3 4*s into 2 5*s. It's a chance. One that has a cost. You can either open your 2 and a half 4*s (which from what I understand people at that stage don't even use them for the most part), which would yield 1100 5* Shards at best, or you can take a chance at a 5*. It's a pretty simple decision, really. The game isn't likely going to provide a way to convert 4*s into 5*s with direct value. There has to be some sort of a cost.
@DNA3000 and I am not saying that you are saying people will get it in 12 tries. However, the person that I commented to original did say you should get 1 5* out of 5 and used that to show how many 5* shards you would get.
ON AVERAGE.... guess you’re unfamiliar with the concept.
Oh, I am... but that does not refute that the true odds never change from the 20% on each independent pull. You can come up with equations on probabilities, but the probabilities change with each consecutive pull as to when you will pull a 5*. While on Average, you should be fine.... if you have an extensive roster, your odds are worse At breaking even.
While you should be able to pull 1 in 5, 1 in 12, or 1 in 24... when you ACTUALLY start pulling, the only thing that truly matters is the odds on the pull you are doing at each exact time. Your odds never truly increase or decrease from the pull you are conducting, which is 1 in 5.
As you actually pull, and provided that each time you pull a 4*... the odds will change as to whether you will pull another 4* or 5* with the last remaining pulls. At best, it is an educated guess as to when the 5* might come. The only constant is the 20%, so as you ACTUALLY pull your odds never change from 1 in 5. I had discussions in length about this with an Engineer from Georgia Tech. He was the one that changed my way of thinking on probability. While the math seems to favor the average person over consecutive pulls at a glance, what truly matters to each independent person is what will happen in actual practice.
Then factor whether the 1 in 5 is the actual rate our not. We have no way to prove that without imperical data. It is the odds that Kabam states the code allows a given chance. Unlike a coin where you can see there are only 2 sides or roulette where you know the exact number of likely outcomes because you actual see all the likely outcomes, the 1 in 5 as stated is based on a claim that the algorithm allows it.
Now, this is a team that quite regularly, accidentally creates bugs... it is very easy for there to be a error in the code and the odds are greater or lesser than what is posted. We are all guessing based on trust that the 1 in 5 is truthful. It is not like a coin where is physically see there are only 2 outcomes.
Not to mention that you also have to look at the fact that you may want a specific champion. Would it be better to save 15,000 for a better chance at then 5* in a featured crystal... or spend those 4* shards for a 20% chance at a random 5* that has a larger odds of not being one you wanted?
At the end of the day, what matters is each individuals position in the game and what they are trying to achieve. For me, I have 146 5* champs with virtually all the champs available in the basic pool. I am better off at saving my 5* shards from duped 4’s for pulling a featured 5* rather than waste them on a 1 in 5 with a greater chance of getting a champ I don’t want.
The legendary crystal is more for players wanting to increase their rosters rather than focus on getting a particular champ.
If Kabam wanted to make money here, they’d throw in one 5* nexus crystal per month min. (1 per fortnight would get me to sign up ASAP)
But what’s currently on offer has very little value to a 1m base hero rated account like mine.
The best deal is the $7.99AUD monthly unit card - get 135 units ASAP and then 20 each day for 30 days.’ That’s the smartest deal Kabam have ever offered and I thank them for it each month.
The thing is that the premium shards for an Ultimate completely cuts out the 2* and guarantees a 3*… which is worth the trade. But 5k 4* shards for a 20% chance at the basic pool of 5*s is hefty. It would be a better value at 3k 4* shards.
People saying you get more 5* shards on the basis you get a 5* are missing the point that most players are hunting specific champions for either clearing content or competitiveness in AW or Prestige. The best chance for a specific character is the featured crystal for 15k 5* shards. How many people spent year hunting Starlord? One guy in my alliance finally duped his after 4 years of playing. Ironically, SL isn’t even that coveted anymore... so he laughed about his “luck”.
While over the course of 4 years, he should have duped SL. The odds got worse and worse with each passing basic pool available champions increase. It came to the point that you now have a greater chance of pulling something you do not want versus a champ you do want. Look at the posts of complaints on horrible pulls from the basic crystals that appear regularly on the forums.
At 5k shards, the deal is better for those that want to expand their 5* rosters. However, if you are hunting for a specific champ and already have an extensive roster, it is better to collect 5* shards in opening 4* crystals to use when the champ you are looking for is in the 5* featured crystal. Even then, the odds are still fickle. I have yet to pull Doom from the current one in order to dup him... even after 30 attempts. While statistically I had a strong chance of pulling him at least once, I did not. I am not upset about it, it just that the odds didn’t work out in my favor.
No probabilities or equations can determine when I will get my dup... it is all random and will always be subject to the odds of the crystal I am opening at that exact moment. Will I get him? Eventually... When? No one knows. My odds will be better with the current 5* featured for 15k shards versus when he will eventually enter the basic pool.
The problem with probabilities is they create assumptions that you will get the champ. However, there is a chance you may not. People tend to get more and more emotional with each pull that they don’t get their desired outcome. Yet on paper, the numbers say the should.
The moral of the story is do not wager more than you intend to lose... and accept the outcome regardless of the results. But never false assume your odds are ever greater than the advertised rates even upon multiple attempts. There are anomalies and outliers that will contradict in both ways. Even making what appear to be sound bets, you still are subject to the Gambler’s Fallacy. The outcomes are completely random and there are no patterns.
Just know you have a 1 in 5 for a 1 in 140 chance for a specific champ should you be in the search for a particular champ. Unless you are willing to accept the high chance of using 2.5x 4* shards for a 20% chance at much higher chance of getting a 5* champ you do not want, the buyer should beware.
While I agree with your breakdown of the odds on the legendary crystal I still have to argue that the cost is too high for the additional resources lost. Even if all your champs aren't max sig you are giving up a lot of iso and a small amount of gold for every 4* dupe you would have pulled. While you may pull a 5* 1 out of 5 crystals the lost iso and gold makes the cost too high in a resource reliant game. With the cost of rankups increasing as your game progression continues and rankup resources become more easily obtained this crystal seems like a short term gain at best with it's high cost. There is still value in the sigil if you are willing to trade cash for time when gathering resources but this crystal seems to be a poor addition to the sigil. I dont see it changing the value in the sigil but I fail to see where it adds anything to intice new people to purchase it.
That's an notable point, but even there the Legendary crystal adds something to the Sigil. Most players, even ISO and Gold starved players, probably believe that the 2000 4* -> 1000 5* shard trade is a good one, in that I've never heard of anyone complaining about it. But that does cost ISO and gold: you're trading basically ten 4* champs for one 5* champ, and that means you're likely losing at least ten 4* champs worth of ISO and gold in dups. You might get one dup on the 5* pull, which generates about the same amount as a 4* dup, so the net loss is perhaps nine 4* dups worth.
Statistically speaking, the Legendary crystal trades about 12.5 4* champs for 4 4* champs and a 5* champ. The net trade is thus 8.5 4* champs for a 5* champ. That's slightly better than the 2k 4* -> 1k 5* trade. So if you think the 2k 4* to 1k 5* trade is reasonable, the Legendary crystal will, over the long haul, end up costing you less ISO and gold for the same amount of 5* champs. For players for whom gold and ISO aren't a problem, they can safely buy both options without it costing them any noticeable amount of ISO and gold.
As to whether it will entice anyone to subscribe, we can't know with certainty whether any one particular person subscribed to the Sigil because of any one particular offer, but what we can know with reasonable certainty is that there's always people on the fence, and added value always kicks a few off the fence. But I doubt that addition was intended on its own to make a dramatic change in the value of the Sigil, as I expect that in general there's no incentive for Kabam to make dramatic changes to the value of the Sigil. Gradual changes over time give you all of the same benefits that adding value create, without incurring any of the penalties associated with setting unrealistic expectations on the value of the subscription.
While you are right that many players believe trading 2k 4* shards for 1k 5* shards is a good deal I'd argue that its because of the guaranteed value. Duping a max sig 4* gives 550 5* shards with the max sig crystal. You are basically trading the iso and gold at that point for 450 5* shards buy buying that offer. There is no gamble in this. The legendary crystal is a big gamble with the resources you are trading. The other thing with trading shards for shards is that you can then choose how to use those shards. The legendary crystal is a 20% gamble on a basic 5* if you win. The shards can be used on basic or hoarded for the 5* feature of your choice at a later date. While I still don't see value in the feature crystal as I stated in my previous post it gives that option as well as the guarantee of the shards rather than gambling on rng in a crystal that is an 80% chance at a 4*. Again I don't see it taking away from the value of the sigil but I don't see any added value from putting this crystal in the black iso store.
honestly though, kabam changed the terms of what i paid for WHILE it was active. breach of contract? come on. you cant do that.
They haven't removed anything or decreased the amount of anything you can purchase in the black iso store. They altered the timers to reduce the amount you can purchase at one time but over the course of the month you can still purchase the same amount. So they haven't breached any contract with you. They closed s loophole allowing people to skip a week in purchasing the sigil and acquiring the same amount of items. Now not instantly renewing the sigil will cause you to lose out on some items but again this is not a breach of the contract.
I think the legendary crystal should be priced at 5k 4* shards for those not yet uncollected, 4k for uncollected, and 3k for Cav players. It should be structured similar to the featured 5* crystal where the price is reduced based on your level of progression.
I think the legendary crystal should be priced at 5k 4* shards for those not yet uncollected, 4k for uncollected, and 3k for Cav players. It should be structured similar to the featured 5* crystal where the price is reduced based on your level of progression.
people who are not uncollected need all the 4 stars they can get and shouldnt be wasting their shards chasing 20% chances at 5 stars, but i do agree that cav players should not be having to pay any more than 3k shards for a legendary
@MetroidBlaster it should be up to the player to decide if it's worth it or not. An argument could also be made ppl not yet uncollected shouldn't be wasting shards on the featured 5* crystal but it's still available to them just at less of a discount.
While I agree with your breakdown of the odds on the legendary crystal I still have to argue that the cost is too high for the additional resources lost. Even if all your champs aren't max sig you are giving up a lot of iso and a small amount of gold for every 4* dupe you would have pulled. While you may pull a 5* 1 out of 5 crystals the lost iso and gold makes the cost too high in a resource reliant game. With the cost of rankups increasing as your game progression continues and rankup resources become more easily obtained this crystal seems like a short term gain at best with it's high cost. There is still value in the sigil if you are willing to trade cash for time when gathering resources but this crystal seems to be a poor addition to the sigil. I dont see it changing the value in the sigil but I fail to see where it adds anything to intice new people to purchase it.
That's an notable point, but even there the Legendary crystal adds something to the Sigil. Most players, even ISO and Gold starved players, probably believe that the 2000 4* -> 1000 5* shard trade is a good one, in that I've never heard of anyone complaining about it. But that does cost ISO and gold: you're trading basically ten 4* champs for one 5* champ, and that means you're likely losing at least ten 4* champs worth of ISO and gold in dups. You might get one dup on the 5* pull, which generates about the same amount as a 4* dup, so the net loss is perhaps nine 4* dups worth.
Statistically speaking, the Legendary crystal trades about 12.5 4* champs for 4 4* champs and a 5* champ. The net trade is thus 8.5 4* champs for a 5* champ. That's slightly better than the 2k 4* -> 1k 5* trade. So if you think the 2k 4* to 1k 5* trade is reasonable, the Legendary crystal will, over the long haul, end up costing you less ISO and gold for the same amount of 5* champs. For players for whom gold and ISO aren't a problem, they can safely buy both options without it costing them any noticeable amount of ISO and gold.
As to whether it will entice anyone to subscribe, we can't know with certainty whether any one particular person subscribed to the Sigil because of any one particular offer, but what we can know with reasonable certainty is that there's always people on the fence, and added value always kicks a few off the fence. But I doubt that addition was intended on its own to make a dramatic change in the value of the Sigil, as I expect that in general there's no incentive for Kabam to make dramatic changes to the value of the Sigil. Gradual changes over time give you all of the same benefits that adding value create, without incurring any of the penalties associated with setting unrealistic expectations on the value of the subscription.
While you are right that many players believe trading 2k 4* shards for 1k 5* shards is a good deal I'd argue that its because of the guaranteed value. Duping a max sig 4* gives 550 5* shards with the max sig crystal. You are basically trading the iso and gold at that point for 450 5* shards buy buying that offer. There is no gamble in this. The legendary crystal is a big gamble with the resources you are trading. The other thing with trading shards for shards is that you can then choose how to use those shards. The legendary crystal is a 20% gamble on a basic 5* if you win. The shards can be used on basic or hoarded for the 5* feature of your choice at a later date. While I still don't see value in the feature crystal as I stated in my previous post it gives that option as well as the guarantee of the shards rather than gambling on rng in a crystal that is an 80% chance at a 4*. Again I don't see it taking away from the value of the sigil but I don't see any added value from putting this crystal in the black iso store.
But now you're arguing two different points incompatibly. You said that that people who really need ISO and Gold will see a reduction in those if they trade 4* shards for the Legendary crystal. But they also lose those when they trade for the 5* shards. Trading for the Legendary crystal offers, on average, more of both in most situations: more ISO and Gold than trading for 5* shards, and for most players more 5* champs over the long haul as well.
If they buy the Legendary crystal instead of trading for 5* shards, they are *guaranteed* to get more ISO and Gold. For people who are constrained on both, that should be a significant consideration. On top of that, they have an overwhelmingly high chance of getting at least as many and possibly more 5* champions.
If they think that's a bad deal, maybe that explains why they are short of ISO and Gold.
It’s both fair and unfair. There are grinders that have all maxed 4* r5 and their 4* shards just keep building over time to only be used as an ISO if it does run out of it. So it’s still up to the player to spend their accumulated 4* shards to convert to legendary crystal for a chance of 5*.
While I agree with your breakdown of the odds on the legendary crystal I still have to argue that the cost is too high for the additional resources lost. Even if all your champs aren't max sig you are giving up a lot of iso and a small amount of gold for every 4* dupe you would have pulled. While you may pull a 5* 1 out of 5 crystals the lost iso and gold makes the cost too high in a resource reliant game. With the cost of rankups increasing as your game progression continues and rankup resources become more easily obtained this crystal seems like a short term gain at best with it's high cost. There is still value in the sigil if you are willing to trade cash for time when gathering resources but this crystal seems to be a poor addition to the sigil. I dont see it changing the value in the sigil but I fail to see where it adds anything to intice new people to purchase it.
That's an notable point, but even there the Legendary crystal adds something to the Sigil. Most players, even ISO and Gold starved players, probably believe that the 2000 4* -> 1000 5* shard trade is a good one, in that I've never heard of anyone complaining about it. But that does cost ISO and gold: you're trading basically ten 4* champs for one 5* champ, and that means you're likely losing at least ten 4* champs worth of ISO and gold in dups. You might get one dup on the 5* pull, which generates about the same amount as a 4* dup, so the net loss is perhaps nine 4* dups worth.
Statistically speaking, the Legendary crystal trades about 12.5 4* champs for 4 4* champs and a 5* champ. The net trade is thus 8.5 4* champs for a 5* champ. That's slightly better than the 2k 4* -> 1k 5* trade. So if you think the 2k 4* to 1k 5* trade is reasonable, the Legendary crystal will, over the long haul, end up costing you less ISO and gold for the same amount of 5* champs. For players for whom gold and ISO aren't a problem, they can safely buy both options without it costing them any noticeable amount of ISO and gold.
As to whether it will entice anyone to subscribe, we can't know with certainty whether any one particular person subscribed to the Sigil because of any one particular offer, but what we can know with reasonable certainty is that there's always people on the fence, and added value always kicks a few off the fence. But I doubt that addition was intended on its own to make a dramatic change in the value of the Sigil, as I expect that in general there's no incentive for Kabam to make dramatic changes to the value of the Sigil. Gradual changes over time give you all of the same benefits that adding value create, without incurring any of the penalties associated with setting unrealistic expectations on the value of the subscription.
While you are right that many players believe trading 2k 4* shards for 1k 5* shards is a good deal I'd argue that its because of the guaranteed value. Duping a max sig 4* gives 550 5* shards with the max sig crystal. You are basically trading the iso and gold at that point for 450 5* shards buy buying that offer. There is no gamble in this. The legendary crystal is a big gamble with the resources you are trading. The other thing with trading shards for shards is that you can then choose how to use those shards. The legendary crystal is a 20% gamble on a basic 5* if you win. The shards can be used on basic or hoarded for the 5* feature of your choice at a later date. While I still don't see value in the feature crystal as I stated in my previous post it gives that option as well as the guarantee of the shards rather than gambling on rng in a crystal that is an 80% chance at a 4*. Again I don't see it taking away from the value of the sigil but I don't see any added value from putting this crystal in the black iso store.
But now you're arguing two different points incompatibly. You said that that people who really need ISO and Gold will see a reduction in those if they trade 4* shards for the Legendary crystal. But they also lose those when they trade for the 5* shards. Trading for the Legendary crystal offers, on average, more of both in most situations: more ISO and Gold than trading for 5* shards, and for most players more 5* champs over the long haul as well.
If they buy the Legendary crystal instead of trading for 5* shards, they are *guaranteed* to get more ISO and Gold. For people who are constrained on both, that should be a significant consideration. On top of that, they have an overwhelmingly high chance of getting at least as many and possibly more 5* champions.
If they think that's a bad deal, maybe that explains why they are short of ISO and Gold.
I'm not trying to argue both sides but what I am saying is if they choose to buy the shards they are getting guaranteed value with the resources they are giving up. The legendary crystal is requiring sacrificing the iso and shards for a gamble of a 5* with the most probable outcome being a 4*. Again I'm not arguing the value of the sigil which hasn't changed but instead arguing the value of the legendary crystal. If someone wants to take that gamble feel free but we do see a lot of complaints on the forum about being screwed by rng. There is no guaranteed value in the legendary crystal which is why I'd argue the cost is very high to offer any additional value to the sigil. To those arguing that the sigil has lost value I would disagree it's the same purchase amounts just spread over a longer period. I was hoping the legendary crystal would be slightly cheaper by about 1k 4* shards to make it more enticing to keep the sigil. Always fun debating with you and I love that you do the math to back up your points @DNA3000
While I agree with your breakdown of the odds on the legendary crystal I still have to argue that the cost is too high for the additional resources lost. Even if all your champs aren't max sig you are giving up a lot of iso and a small amount of gold for every 4* dupe you would have pulled. While you may pull a 5* 1 out of 5 crystals the lost iso and gold makes the cost too high in a resource reliant game. With the cost of rankups increasing as your game progression continues and rankup resources become more easily obtained this crystal seems like a short term gain at best with it's high cost. There is still value in the sigil if you are willing to trade cash for time when gathering resources but this crystal seems to be a poor addition to the sigil. I dont see it changing the value in the sigil but I fail to see where it adds anything to intice new people to purchase it.
That's an notable point, but even there the Legendary crystal adds something to the Sigil. Most players, even ISO and Gold starved players, probably believe that the 2000 4* -> 1000 5* shard trade is a good one, in that I've never heard of anyone complaining about it. But that does cost ISO and gold: you're trading basically ten 4* champs for one 5* champ, and that means you're likely losing at least ten 4* champs worth of ISO and gold in dups. You might get one dup on the 5* pull, which generates about the same amount as a 4* dup, so the net loss is perhaps nine 4* dups worth.
Statistically speaking, the Legendary crystal trades about 12.5 4* champs for 4 4* champs and a 5* champ. The net trade is thus 8.5 4* champs for a 5* champ. That's slightly better than the 2k 4* -> 1k 5* trade. So if you think the 2k 4* to 1k 5* trade is reasonable, the Legendary crystal will, over the long haul, end up costing you less ISO and gold for the same amount of 5* champs. For players for whom gold and ISO aren't a problem, they can safely buy both options without it costing them any noticeable amount of ISO and gold.
As to whether it will entice anyone to subscribe, we can't know with certainty whether any one particular person subscribed to the Sigil because of any one particular offer, but what we can know with reasonable certainty is that there's always people on the fence, and added value always kicks a few off the fence. But I doubt that addition was intended on its own to make a dramatic change in the value of the Sigil, as I expect that in general there's no incentive for Kabam to make dramatic changes to the value of the Sigil. Gradual changes over time give you all of the same benefits that adding value create, without incurring any of the penalties associated with setting unrealistic expectations on the value of the subscription.
While you are right that many players believe trading 2k 4* shards for 1k 5* shards is a good deal I'd argue that its because of the guaranteed value. Duping a max sig 4* gives 550 5* shards with the max sig crystal. You are basically trading the iso and gold at that point for 450 5* shards buy buying that offer. There is no gamble in this. The legendary crystal is a big gamble with the resources you are trading. The other thing with trading shards for shards is that you can then choose how to use those shards. The legendary crystal is a 20% gamble on a basic 5* if you win. The shards can be used on basic or hoarded for the 5* feature of your choice at a later date. While I still don't see value in the feature crystal as I stated in my previous post it gives that option as well as the guarantee of the shards rather than gambling on rng in a crystal that is an 80% chance at a 4*. Again I don't see it taking away from the value of the sigil but I don't see any added value from putting this crystal in the black iso store.
But now you're arguing two different points incompatibly. You said that that people who really need ISO and Gold will see a reduction in those if they trade 4* shards for the Legendary crystal. But they also lose those when they trade for the 5* shards. Trading for the Legendary crystal offers, on average, more of both in most situations: more ISO and Gold than trading for 5* shards, and for most players more 5* champs over the long haul as well.
If they buy the Legendary crystal instead of trading for 5* shards, they are *guaranteed* to get more ISO and Gold. For people who are constrained on both, that should be a significant consideration. On top of that, they have an overwhelmingly high chance of getting at least as many and possibly more 5* champions.
If they think that's a bad deal, maybe that explains why they are short of ISO and Gold.
I'm not trying to argue both sides but what I am saying is if they choose to buy the shards they are getting guaranteed value with the resources they are giving up. The legendary crystal is requiring sacrificing the iso and shards for a gamble of a 5* with the most probable outcome being a 4*
But that's not true, because you're forgetting the Legendary crystal is not just a gamble for a 5*, the worst case scenario is a 4*. So if you use 4* shards to buy 5* shards you will *only* get a 5* after ten trades. This is guaranteed, but that's *all* you get. For the same cost you can buy four Legendary crystals. That's not just four chances at a 5*, the worst case scenario is four 4* champs which are bound to generate more ISO and Gold than the one 5* champ you're guaranteed.
The Legendary crystal does have a guaranteed result: four champs verses one. They might be four 4* champs, or a mix of 4* and 5* champs, but you will definitely get four champs. And that will always generate more ISO and Gold than one 5* champ, because 5* duplication generates the same ISO and Gold as 4* duplication. So four > one.
If you only care about getting guaranteed 5* champs, such that you're fine with getting guaranteed 5* champs even if 99% of people who gamble will do as good or better than you, then the 4* -> 5* trade is the best deal. If you care about getting the most 5* champs over time, and you're willing to take the chance that you're not going to be among the <1% of worst luck players, then the Legendary crystal is the better trade. If you're concerned about ISO and Gold, then the Legendary crystal is better than the 4* -> 5* trade. Just buying 4* champs is even better, but it reduces your 5* champion acquisition to the worst possible level out of all the options.
We appreciate any constructive feedback you can offer. Simply saying "thanks, i hate it" doesn't really tell us what your full thoughts are. Thanks in advance for clarifying!
Lower the price to 3000 4 stars shards and make the legendary crystal a Nexus legendary crystal. that would be a good deal
That would be an absurdly low cost for such a crystal. You're basically buying a 50% chance for a 5* champion for 3000 4* shards.
No you are basically buying 20% chance to get a 5 star for 3000 4-star shards with an increase chance to get a five stars if the crystal is a nexus.
Nexus crystal does not give you 50% chance to get a 5 stars champion as every one of the three possible champions of the nexus crystal have the same probability (80% for a 4 stars and 20% for a 5 stars) but at least that give you the choice of the champion you will have.
We appreciate any constructive feedback you can offer. Simply saying "thanks, i hate it" doesn't really tell us what your full thoughts are. Thanks in advance for clarifying!
Lower the price to 3000 4 stars shards and make the legendary crystal a Nexus legendary crystal. that would be a good deal
That would be an absurdly low cost for such a crystal. You're basically buying a 50% chance for a 5* champion for 3000 4* shards.
No you are basically buying 20% chance to get a 5 star for 3000 4-star shards with an increase chance to get a five stars if the crystal is a nexus.
Nexus crystal does not give you 50% chance to get a 5 stars champion as every one of the three possible champions of the nexus crystal have the same probability (80% for a 4 stars and 20% for a 5 stars) but at least that give you the choice of the champion you will have.
The Nexus WOULD give you better chance of at least one of the 3 choices being a 5*, as they are all randomly determined independently. It is the “Focus Crystal” that would first roll whether it is a 4* or a 5* and then gives you 3 choices all of either 4* or all at 5* to choose from.
Having this black market Legendary made into a “Focus” crystal would be nice though (if that is what you really meant, even if you seemed to confirm that is not what you meant), so that at least on the 20% chance that it rolls a 5* you could at least then choose WHICH 5* you would want from among 3 choices. (hopefully at least one of the 3 would be a halfway decent choice as a 5*).
i dont know how anyone can say that kabam isnt breaching the deal or that a refund or compensation isnt due.
for example, my sigil expires in 2 days. since the last time i renewed, i should have had access to, for example, 6k 5 star shards. now i get 5k. this also applies to everything else in the store. i PAID for the access for the amounts and quantities at the beginning of the month, and now at the end of the month, they have reduced what i can get.
its not hard to wrap your mind around, its simple math. kabam has given me less than i agreed to pay for, the product they advertised to me is not the product i received.
they should have done the responsible thing and made it so all the new changes go into effect AFTER you renew if you were on the old system.
Comments
guess you’re unfamiliar with the concept.
*Proceeds to buy cavs/gmc with an even lower chance
While you should be able to pull 1 in 5, 1 in 12, or 1 in 24... when you ACTUALLY start pulling, the only thing that truly matters is the odds on the pull you are doing at each exact time. Your odds never truly increase or decrease from the pull you are conducting, which is 1 in 5.
As you actually pull, and provided that each time you pull a 4*... the odds will change as to whether you will pull another 4* or 5* with the last remaining pulls. At best, it is an educated guess as to when the 5* might come. The only constant is the 20%, so as you ACTUALLY pull your odds never change from 1 in 5. I had discussions in length about this with an Engineer from Georgia Tech. He was the one that changed my way of thinking on probability. While the math seems to favor the average person over consecutive pulls at a glance, what truly matters to each independent person is what will happen in actual practice.
Then factor whether the 1 in 5 is the actual rate our not. We have no way to prove that without imperical data. It is the odds that Kabam states the code allows a given chance. Unlike a coin where you can see there are only 2 sides or roulette where you know the exact number of likely outcomes because you actual see all the likely outcomes, the 1 in 5 as stated is based on a claim that the algorithm allows it.
Now, this is a team that quite regularly, accidentally creates bugs... it is very easy for there to be a error in the code and the odds are greater or lesser than what is posted. We are all guessing based on trust that the 1 in 5 is truthful. It is not like a coin where is physically see there are only 2 outcomes.
Not to mention that you also have to look at the fact that you may want a specific champion. Would it be better to save 15,000 for a better chance at then 5* in a featured crystal... or spend those 4* shards for a 20% chance at a random 5* that has a larger odds of not being one you wanted?
At the end of the day, what matters is each individuals position in the game and what they are trying to achieve. For me, I have 146 5* champs with virtually all the champs available in the basic pool. I am better off at saving my 5* shards from duped 4’s for pulling a featured 5* rather than waste them on a 1 in 5 with a greater chance of getting a champ I don’t want.
The legendary crystal is more for players wanting to increase their rosters rather than focus on getting a particular champ.
(1 per fortnight would get me to sign up ASAP)
But what’s currently on offer has very little value to a 1m base hero rated account like mine.
The best deal is the $7.99AUD monthly unit card - get 135 units ASAP and then 20 each day for 30 days.’
That’s the smartest deal Kabam have ever offered and I thank them for it each month.
But will agree about the Legendary crystal that's over priced
People saying you get more 5* shards on the basis you get a 5* are missing the point that most players are hunting specific champions for either clearing content or competitiveness in AW or Prestige. The best chance for a specific character is the featured crystal for 15k 5* shards. How many people spent year hunting Starlord? One guy in my alliance finally duped his after 4 years of playing. Ironically, SL isn’t even that coveted anymore... so he laughed about his “luck”.
While over the course of 4 years, he should have duped SL. The odds got worse and worse with each passing basic pool available champions increase. It came to the point that you now have a greater chance of pulling something you do not want versus a champ you do want. Look at the posts of complaints on horrible pulls from the basic crystals that appear regularly on the forums.
At 5k shards, the deal is better for those that want to expand their 5* rosters. However, if you are hunting for a specific champ and already have an extensive roster, it is better to collect 5* shards in opening 4* crystals to use when the champ you are looking for is in the 5* featured crystal. Even then, the odds are still fickle. I have yet to pull Doom from the current one in order to dup him... even after 30 attempts. While statistically I had a strong chance of pulling him at least once, I did not. I am not upset about it, it just that the odds didn’t work out in my favor.
No probabilities or equations can determine when I will get my dup... it is all random and will always be subject to the odds of the crystal I am opening at that exact moment. Will I get him? Eventually... When? No one knows. My odds will be better with the current 5* featured for 15k shards versus when he will eventually enter the basic pool.
The problem with probabilities is they create assumptions that you will get the champ. However, there is a chance you may not. People tend to get more and more emotional with each pull that they don’t get their desired outcome. Yet on paper, the numbers say the should.
The moral of the story is do not wager more than you intend to lose... and accept the outcome regardless of the results. But never false assume your odds are ever greater than the advertised rates even upon multiple attempts. There are anomalies and outliers that will contradict in both ways. Even making what appear to be sound bets, you still are subject to the Gambler’s Fallacy. The outcomes are completely random and there are no patterns.
Just know you have a 1 in 5 for a 1 in 140 chance for a specific champ should you be in the search for a particular champ. Unless you are willing to accept the high chance of using 2.5x 4* shards for a 20% chance at much higher chance of getting a 5* champ you do not want, the buyer should beware.
If they buy the Legendary crystal instead of trading for 5* shards, they are *guaranteed* to get more ISO and Gold. For people who are constrained on both, that should be a significant consideration. On top of that, they have an overwhelmingly high chance of getting at least as many and possibly more 5* champions.
If they think that's a bad deal, maybe that explains why they are short of ISO and Gold.
The Legendary crystal does have a guaranteed result: four champs verses one. They might be four 4* champs, or a mix of 4* and 5* champs, but you will definitely get four champs. And that will always generate more ISO and Gold than one 5* champ, because 5* duplication generates the same ISO and Gold as 4* duplication. So four > one.
If you only care about getting guaranteed 5* champs, such that you're fine with getting guaranteed 5* champs even if 99% of people who gamble will do as good or better than you, then the 4* -> 5* trade is the best deal. If you care about getting the most 5* champs over time, and you're willing to take the chance that you're not going to be among the <1% of worst luck players, then the Legendary crystal is the better trade. If you're concerned about ISO and Gold, then the Legendary crystal is better than the 4* -> 5* trade. Just buying 4* champs is even better, but it reduces your 5* champion acquisition to the worst possible level out of all the options.
Paying 2,5 times the price of a 4 star for a crystal that give you 80% chances to get a 4 star champion is too high !
Lower the price to 3000 4 stars shards and make the legendary crystal a Nexus legendary crystal. that would be a good deal
Nexus crystal does not give you 50% chance to get a 5 stars champion as every one of the three possible champions of the nexus crystal have the same probability (80% for a 4 stars and 20% for a 5 stars) but at least that give you the choice of the champion you will have.
It is the “Focus Crystal” that would first roll whether it is a 4* or a 5* and then gives you 3 choices all of either 4* or all at 5* to choose from.
Having this black market Legendary made into a “Focus” crystal would be nice though (if that is what you really meant, even if you seemed to confirm that is not what you meant), so that at least on the 20% chance that it rolls a 5* you could at least then choose WHICH 5* you would want from among 3 choices. (hopefully at least one of the 3 would be a halfway decent choice as a 5*).
for example, my sigil expires in 2 days. since the last time i renewed, i should have had access to, for example, 6k 5 star shards. now i get 5k. this also applies to everything else in the store. i PAID for the access for the amounts and quantities at the beginning of the month, and now at the end of the month, they have reduced what i can get.
its not hard to wrap your mind around, its simple math. kabam has given me less than i agreed to pay for, the product they advertised to me is not the product i received.
they should have done the responsible thing and made it so all the new changes go into effect AFTER you renew if you were on the old system.
why is this hard to understand?