respect for the thought it took to write all of this. i was leaning one way for sure until you mentioned it's like giving up 5 tries of which you'd probably get that gem anyway. now it's a tough choice .. gee thanks man LOL
You wouldn't probably get the gem you want in 5 tries. I have yet to get an awakening gem of any kind from the rifts, and you might not even see the gem you want in 5 tries.
I just have one question and it’s not related to the chance of me getting something.
So if I buy a tier 4 rift and enter it, and see that there’s a skill awakening gem that I rly want for some reason, but I haven’t bought the chronometer yet, will I be able to go to the intel store, purchase the chronometer bundle for 3000 intel, go back into the rift and use it? And when I say go to the intel store from the rift, I do not mean quitting the quest. Just using the drop down menu to go to the store and buy
Tagged miike and a few of the others above to ask the same question - think a few people want to know this. You'll likely need to have a minimum of 3000 saved already - I hope we can buy a chronometer retrospectively of seeing what is on the path.
Very likely no. So I need to wait for 6 days before being able to enter rifts with the chronometer.
I just have one question and it’s not related to the chance of me getting something.
So if I buy a tier 4 rift and enter it, and see that there’s a skill awakening gem that I rly want for some reason, but I haven’t bought the chronometer yet, will I be able to go to the intel store, purchase the chronometer bundle for 3000 intel, go back into the rift and use it? And when I say go to the intel store from the rift, I do not mean quitting the quest. Just using the drop down menu to go to the store and buy
Tagged miike and a few of the others above to ask the same question - think a few people want to know this. You'll likely need to have a minimum of 3000 saved already - I hope we can buy a chronometer retrospectively of seeing what is on the path.
Very likely no. So I need to wait for 6 days before being able to enter rifts with the chronometer.
6 days? The chronometer is 3k intel. We get 258 intel per epic red Room/day so that would be 12 days... Unless you're talking about a lower tier chronometer.
I just have one question and it’s not related to the chance of me getting something.
So if I buy a tier 4 rift and enter it, and see that there’s a skill awakening gem that I rly want for some reason, but I haven’t bought the chronometer yet, will I be able to go to the intel store, purchase the chronometer bundle for 3000 intel, go back into the rift and use it? And when I say go to the intel store from the rift, I do not mean quitting the quest. Just using the drop down menu to go to the store and buy
That's the big question on everyone's mind. The answer is at the moment no one knows, and it is possible no one will be absolutely certain until someone earns enough Intel for both an entry and a Chronometer purchase on top of that to test it out.
I just have one question and it’s not related to the chance of me getting something.
So if I buy a tier 4 rift and enter it, and see that there’s a skill awakening gem that I rly want for some reason, but I haven’t bought the chronometer yet, will I be able to go to the intel store, purchase the chronometer bundle for 3000 intel, go back into the rift and use it? And when I say go to the intel store from the rift, I do not mean quitting the quest. Just using the drop down menu to go to the store and buy
Tagged miike and a few of the others above to ask the same question - think a few people want to know this. You'll likely need to have a minimum of 3000 saved already - I hope we can buy a chronometer retrospectively of seeing what is on the path.
Very likely no. So I need to wait for 6 days before being able to enter rifts with the chronometer.
6 days? The chronometer is 3k intel. We get 258 intel per epic red Room/day so that would be 12 days... Unless you're talking about a lower tier chronometer.
In which case Walkerdog, save up 3k Intel, buy the chronometer before entering any rifts, then hope in one of the 13 you open theres a mutant gem to select.
If it's like the atlantean rifts we had last year the gems showed relatively frequently, but the chances of us landing on them were (and still are without the chronometer) minimal. I would be hoping to see each class once over the 13 rifts, but obviously I havent got a clue.
If mutant doesn't show up, you just pick whatever else you want on your 13th rift and accept that RNG wasnt on your side.
I'm going to focus on the Epic difficulty tier for this discussion. Without getting into the details, the bottom line is if you do everything you can do to earn the currency you need to enter these Rifts you'll be able to enter the Epic 18 times. BUT if you buy the Chronometer package you'll only be able to enter 13 times. The Chronometer basically will cost you five entries, which means fiver fewer times you can get Rift rewards.
But the catch is the Chronometer can be used ONCE to force the Rift you're in to give you whichever reward you want. So if you want the awakening gem and the class you want is on your current map you don't have to rely on luck: you just use the Chronometer and bam, you'll be on that path, and that awakening gem is yours.
So should you buy it? Is the value of picking the reward worth losing five entries?
First of all, if you really, really want a 5* awakening gem, my recommendation is (assuming you are capable of earning everything you need and can do the Rifts at Epic difficulty in the first place) buy the Chronometer, and then every time you enter look for the class you want: if you see it, burn it. You'll have thirteen tries to get the class you want: there's a 91% chance the class you want will eventually pop up. If you want at least two different classes, the odds are even better: 99.5% chance that one of those two classes will come up.
But what if you don't want the awakening gem? Maybe you have a bunch of them, maybe you don't need anything awakened, maybe you want something else even more, like 6* shards. Is it worth it to trade five entries for picking the reward then?
Probably. First of all, what's the statistical average expected outcome if you enter the Epic Rift five times? Basically, the math says:
That's the statistical average total haul for five entries. Of course, different people will get different results randomly. But that's the average value of five entries. Note: to get the 7200 5* shards I decided to value the 5* featured crystal as approximately 10,000 shards. I know they cost 15k, but Sigil players pay less and the *value* to a player might be nothing more than one more 5* pull. So I thought that was a safe estimate for the value of the crystal.
If you want 1000 6* shards instead of the 5* awakening gem, I'd say you should use the Chronometer. But if your thought was to target either the 10000 5* shards or the 5* featured crystal, I think it is a closer proposition. Personally, I think that package of stuff listed above is worth at least as much as 10k 5* shards or a featured 5* crystal. But other people might disagree.
In my opinion, buy the Epic Chronometer if a) you're targeting the 5* awakening gem, b) you're targeting the 1000 6* shards, c) you really, really, really hate having bad luck. But if you were not specifically targeting those resources, and you think your luck is not bad, and you're looking for the best possible value, then I'd consider carefully if the Chronometer is really giving you the best possible value. For example I don't think I would buy the Chronometer and target the T5B shards.
Of course, if you really really want something, then buy the Chronometer and target that thing. That's entirely your choice: do what will make you happy. But if you don't have a super strong preference (among the top rewards) and want to know which option gives more value, then the question is: is there something you can target with the Chronometer that is worth more than that basket of stuff above. If you believe you can, get the Chronometer. If you think none of the rewards you might pick is as good as that basket of stuff, and you don't mind leaving it to chance, skip the Chronometer.
As an aside, I'm 99.9% sure this is NOT how it works (NOT NOT NOT), but what would have made the Chronometer very interesting is if it could be used *after* you went through the path selector in the Rift. In other words, if the Chronometer could have erased one bad random roll. That would have been very interesting.
This is good analysis but the one thing you have to overcome in this game which isnt simply skill-related is RNG. For me, tech would be okay, but Mutant opens up OR for me. I dont want any of the others since I have one and a good awakened character in each non-mutant class. Hitting that mutant AG will give me progression that none of the other stuff will.
As I mention, if you want the 5* AG and you also care which class, then your best strategy is save up enough intel for the Chronometer, and when you do then buy that and then start entering Rifts. Doing this means you'll have thirteen shots at using the Chronometer to pick an AG class you want. If you try your luck first, and then change your mind the Chronometer has less value because you'll have fewer chances to essentially "reroll" the AG and use the Chronometer to get that one.
The power of the Chronometer is two-fold. First, if you want a static reward (something that never changes from run to run, like the 6* shards) you can guarantee that you get that reward. But the second thing the Chronometer does is for rewards with class, particularly the 5* awakening gem, you not only get to ensure you get it, you also get to pick *which* one you get from a sequence of randomly generated ones. As the calculations above, point out, if you buy the Chronometer first and then do thirteen runs after you get it, you increase your odds of getting one specific class of AG from one in six to over 90%. Still not guaranteed, but much better.
You can't eliminate RNG, but you can swing the odds into your favor. But if you wait until the very end and then decide to buy the Chronometer, you still guarantee you'll get an AG, but you'll have to settle for whatever class comes up. You don't get a second chance.
For those that missed the explanation of how it’s a 90.7% chance (if you’re looking for just 1 particular Class of AwakeningGem) and the 99.5% chance (if OK with either of 2 different Classes), he did a great job of explaining in plain language (even if you don’t remember your Permutation and Combination formulas from school).
And if you want to calculate them on a scientific calculator, you can use “x” to the “y” power button (x^y) to avoid manually multiplying it out 13 times.. (5/6) (x^y) 13.
Versus the “taking a chance” odds of the random rifts giving you a specific Class AG at anytime during a full 18 tries (WITHOUT buying the Chronometer) being quite small at only 8.6% (or 16.5% if OK with either of 2 different AG Classes).
But how can there be a “disagree“ on his math ??? After all, “Math is Math”. Or is it just because we’re in an age where “Science” is sometimes no longer “Science”.
Excellent post and answered the main question that I had: do I buy the Chronometer immediately or wait a little while and try my luck and if I'm not lucky get it towards the end.
Update to question asking if you can wait to buy the Chronometer until after you’ve entered the Rift Quest and seen that the particular Class AG you want is present.
YES (confirmed by Miike, it acts like a “Gate Key” that will lead you to a different Portal to choose your own Destination, instead of just the normal Random Portal), so long as you still have enough extra Intel available to go and buy your Chronometer/Detector pak. And so long as you DO NOT QUIT the rift quest (just go to Store directly via Menu and buy it, then Resume the Rift).
But how can there be a “disagree“ on his math ??? After all, “Math is Math”.
It is a probability post. I'm surprised there's only one.
Probability is one of those math subjects in which the calculations themselves aren't difficult, but the underlying understanding of how the calculations themselves are supposed to be used are often not well understood, even by people who actually do it a lot. I remember when the Monty Maul problem literally took over math forums, where even people who are supposed to know how to do statistics correctly were willing to die on the hill of being completely wrong.
The Monty Haul problem is a long standing math pseudo-paradox based on the game show of the same name. I have three boxes. I put a thousand dollars in one, the other two are empty. I close and shuffle the boxes, then I let you pick one. After you pick one, I open one of the other boxes and show you that it is empty. I now give you the chance to trade the box you have for the remaining unopened box. Question: should you trade.
The wrong answer: it doesn't matter.
Correct answer: you switch. The odds of the money being in your box is 1/3rd, and the odds of the money being in the other remaining box is 2/3rds.
The pseudo-paradox: how did the odds of the money being in the last box change? If it can change, why didn't the odds of my box having the money go up as well, and keep everything 50/50?
There are some colloquial reasons why, but the hard core mathematically precise reason why is subtle, and involves the very underlying definitions of what probability even is. And there are always supposedly well educated mathematicians that will still argue the wrong thing, even though this is something trivial to demonstrate in practice.
Monty Hall (unless implying you can “haul” in the Big Deal of the Day, lol).
Yep, I would guess the logic is (assume you picked Box C) that in a case that they WOULD HAVE wanted to show you a 1/3 probability Box A, but COULDN'T because the prize is actually IN Box A, so then they would HAVE to show you Box B instead. Thus Box B would have inherently absorbed both probabilities that the money was in EITHER A -OR- B, while your Box C odds never changed.
If the money were really in your Box C, they would not have needed to change plans from showing you Box A to begin with. 😀😀
I'm contemplating it. I may run one or two more and see how my luck is faring. If it's not well, I don't mind sacrificing 5 Rifts to have something of my choosing.
Monty Hall (unless implying you can “haul” in the Big Deal of the Day, lol).
Yep, I would guess the logic is (assume you picked Box C) that in a case that they WOULD HAVE wanted to show you a 1/3 probability Box A, but COULDN'T because the prize is actually IN Box A, so then they would HAVE to show you Box B instead. Thus Box B would have inherently absorbed both probabilities that the money was in EITHER A -OR- B, while your Box C odds never changed.
If the money were really in your Box C, they would not have needed to change plans from showing you Box A to begin with. 😀😀
The probabilistic argument is: there are three possibilities, the money is in box A, B, or C. Let's call the one you pick A, and the other two B and C. If the money is in A, Monty can show you either box: this gives no information. If the money is in B, he has to show you C, which means showing you the box gives you information. Probability is a measure of unknown possibilities; initially there was a 2/3rds chance the money was in either B or C; opening C means the odds of the money being in C is now zero, and the odds of the money being in B is now 2/3ds. A similar argument holds for the case of the money being in C. So there's a 1/3 chance you picked the money box immediately, and a 2/3rds chance you didn't. For the case where you didn't, which ever box is opened the odds of the money being in that box is zero (because you see it empty) and the odds of the money being in the other box is 100% (it is the only box left). Summing possibilities the odds you have the money is 1/3, and the odds it is in the other box is 2/3.
Here's the common sense argument that is intuitive. Suppose it was a million boxes, not three. And suppose there are two players, me and you. You pick first, and pick one box. Now I get to have *all the rest*. Who's more likely to have the money? Now suppose I let you trade your box for *one* of mine? Would you trade? Why bother, the odds are the same. One box is no better than any other, because all of them are equally likely to have the money.
But suppose I were to open 999,998 of mine and show you they are empty. Would you trade now? Of course, because I've just told you which ones are empty. Do you think by opening those boxes I made the game even? I doubt it. I think you still think you had only one in a million chance to get the money and I had 999,999 out of a million chances. Opening those boxes just tells you which one of mine has the money. So you trade.
Same argument works for three. And for those that don't believe either argument, you can simulate this game with a computer program or three cups and a wad of paper. Regardless, you'll discover that the person who always switches very quickly wins more than the person who never switches.
@DNA3000 , any insight into the 5* FEATURE HERO CRYSTAL (on a 5% chance path)...
is this the same as the currently available 15000 shard Feature Hero Crystal ?
Is that “locked in” to the currently available Feature Hero Set ?
Or what if you hang on to it for a few months until the NEXT 15000 Feature Set comes around before opening it, will it be the THEN FEATURE SET, or still based on what's in there currently.
@DNA3000 , any insight into the 5* FEATURE HERO CRYSTAL (on a 5% chance path)...
is this the same as the currently available 15000 shard Feature Hero Crystal ?
Is that “locked in” to the currently available Feature Hero Set ?
Or what if you hang on to it for a few months until the NEXT 15000 Feature Set comes around before opening it, will it be the THEN FEATURE SET, or still based on what's in there currently.
I presume it will be the same as the one running now. Could be wrong.
I need a skill gem for my AEgon. Pulled him almost a year ago and 3 AG crystals pass by and no luck. Hearing that we have a 91% chance for the gem we need to appear makes me happy. Definitely going for 1 guaranteed.
Let's not think too much. It's pretty simple actually, if you want a particular class AG, then get the chronometer first and try your luck, now with 100% guarantee to get that gem as long as that particular gem is available in the remaining 13 tries. Else count your blessing as you try it 18 times without the chronometer. Hey who knows, you might get another class AG or even awaken that particular champ thus month from the shards (doubtful).
Let's not think too much. It's pretty simple actually, if you want a particular class AG, then get the chronometer first and try your luck, now with 100% guarantee to get that gem as long as that particular gem is available in the remaining 13 tries. Else count your blessing as you try it 18 times without the chronometer. Hey who knows, you might get another class AG or even awaken that particular champ thus month from the shards (doubtful).
Why would you buy it now? Keep 3k Intel in the bank and just keep doing rifts until what you want shows itself. If you get through 12 rifts without showing, then you just do 6 more and forget about the chronometer.
Let's not think too much. It's pretty simple actually, if you want a particular class AG, then get the chronometer first and try your luck, now with 100% guarantee to get that gem as long as that particular gem is available in the remaining 13 tries. Else count your blessing as you try it 18 times without the chronometer. Hey who knows, you might get another class AG or even awaken that particular champ thus month from the shards (doubtful).
Why would you buy it now? Keep 3k Intel in the bank and just keep doing rifts until what you want shows itself. If you get through 12 rifts without showing, then you just do 6 more and forget about the chronometer.
To buy it up front makes zero sense.
You can't run 18 rifts AND get a chronometer! You have to make a choice to save for the chronometer, meaning skipping 6 rifts
respect for the thought it took to write all of this. i was leaning one way for sure until you mentioned it's like giving up 5 tries of which you'd probably get that gem anyway. now it's a tough choice .. gee thanks man LOL
You wouldn't probably get the gem you want in 5 tries. I have yet to get an awakening gem of any kind from the rifts, and you might not even see the gem you want in 5 tries.
"I have yet to get an awakening gem of any kind from the rifts" so you're basing your assumption off the fact that you haven't got an awakening gem, from the rifts that have only been available for 2 days.. and that we've only been able to enter once lol.
Let's not think too much. It's pretty simple actually, if you want a particular class AG, then get the chronometer first and try your luck, now with 100% guarantee to get that gem as long as that particular gem is available in the remaining 13 tries. Else count your blessing as you try it 18 times without the chronometer. Hey who knows, you might get another class AG or even awaken that particular champ thus month from the shards (doubtful).
Why would you buy it now? Keep 3k Intel in the bank and just keep doing rifts until what you want shows itself. If you get through 12 rifts without showing, then you just do 6 more and forget about the chronometer.
To buy it up front makes zero sense.
You can't run 18 rifts AND get a chronometer! You have to make a choice to save for the chronometer, meaning skipping 6 rifts
No fooling. I didn't say run 18 rifts. Run the 12 while keeping 3k Intel in the bank. Get through 12 without finding your gem and then run the last 6. Not rocket science.
That's why it's dumb to buy it up front. If you buy it, run 12 rifts and never see the gem you want, you just wasted six rifts of rewards for nothing.
Let's not think too much. It's pretty simple actually, if you want a particular class AG, then get the chronometer first and try your luck, now with 100% guarantee to get that gem as long as that particular gem is available in the remaining 13 tries. Else count your blessing as you try it 18 times without the chronometer. Hey who knows, you might get another class AG or even awaken that particular champ thus month from the shards (doubtful).
Why would you buy it now? Keep 3k Intel in the bank and just keep doing rifts until what you want shows itself. If you get through 12 rifts without showing, then you just do 6 more and forget about the chronometer.
To buy it up front makes zero sense.
You can't run 18 rifts AND get a chronometer! You have to make a choice to save for the chronometer, meaning skipping 6 rifts
No fooling. I didn't say run 18 rifts. Run the 12 while keeping 3k Intel in the bank. Get through 12 without finding your gem and then run the last 6. Not rocket science.
That's why it's dumb to buy it up front. If you buy it, run 12 rifts and never see the gem you want, you just wasted six rifts of rewards for nothing.
Do you even understand what you wrote? How do you run 12 while keeping 3k banked, then you say if you run 12 without seeing your gem, run the last 6. If you bank 3k, there's only 12 rifts available, no way to run the other 6!
Let's not think too much. It's pretty simple actually, if you want a particular class AG, then get the chronometer first and try your luck, now with 100% guarantee to get that gem as long as that particular gem is available in the remaining 13 tries. Else count your blessing as you try it 18 times without the chronometer. Hey who knows, you might get another class AG or even awaken that particular champ thus month from the shards (doubtful).
Why would you buy it now? Keep 3k Intel in the bank and just keep doing rifts until what you want shows itself. If you get through 12 rifts without showing, then you just do 6 more and forget about the chronometer.
To buy it up front makes zero sense.
You can't run 18 rifts AND get a chronometer! You have to make a choice to save for the chronometer, meaning skipping 6 rifts
No fooling. I didn't say run 18 rifts. Run the 12 while keeping 3k Intel in the bank. Get through 12 without finding your gem and then run the last 6. Not rocket science.
That's why it's dumb to buy it up front. If you buy it, run 12 rifts and never see the gem you want, you just wasted six rifts of rewards for nothing.
Do you even understand what you wrote? How do you run 12 while keeping 3k banked, then you say if you run 12 without seeing your gem, run the last 6. If you bank 3k, there's only 12 rifts available, no way to run the other 6!
He's saying he SAVED the 3000, NOT that he bought the chronometer. So if he runs 12 and decides he doesn't want to BUY the chronometer with what he SAVED, he can run the extra 6.
Comments
If it's like the atlantean rifts we had last year the gems showed relatively frequently, but the chances of us landing on them were (and still are without the chronometer) minimal.
I would be hoping to see each class once over the 13 rifts, but obviously I havent got a clue.
If mutant doesn't show up, you just pick whatever else you want on your 13th rift and accept that RNG wasnt on your side.
The power of the Chronometer is two-fold. First, if you want a static reward (something that never changes from run to run, like the 6* shards) you can guarantee that you get that reward. But the second thing the Chronometer does is for rewards with class, particularly the 5* awakening gem, you not only get to ensure you get it, you also get to pick *which* one you get from a sequence of randomly generated ones. As the calculations above, point out, if you buy the Chronometer first and then do thirteen runs after you get it, you increase your odds of getting one specific class of AG from one in six to over 90%. Still not guaranteed, but much better.
You can't eliminate RNG, but you can swing the odds into your favor. But if you wait until the very end and then decide to buy the Chronometer, you still guarantee you'll get an AG, but you'll have to settle for whatever class comes up. You don't get a second chance.
And if you want to calculate them on a scientific calculator, you can use “x” to the “y” power button (x^y) to avoid manually multiplying it out 13 times.. (5/6) (x^y) 13.
Versus the “taking a chance” odds of the random rifts giving you a specific Class AG at anytime during a full 18 tries (WITHOUT buying the Chronometer) being quite small at only 8.6% (or 16.5% if OK with either of 2 different AG Classes).
But how can there be a “disagree“ on his math ??? After all, “Math is Math”.
Or is it just because we’re in an age where “Science” is sometimes no longer “Science”.
YES (confirmed by Miike, it acts like a “Gate Key” that will lead you to a different Portal to choose your own Destination, instead of just the normal Random Portal), so long as you still have enough extra Intel available to go and buy your Chronometer/Detector pak. And so long as you DO NOT QUIT the rift quest (just go to Store directly via Menu and buy it, then Resume the Rift).
Probability is one of those math subjects in which the calculations themselves aren't difficult, but the underlying understanding of how the calculations themselves are supposed to be used are often not well understood, even by people who actually do it a lot. I remember when the Monty Maul problem literally took over math forums, where even people who are supposed to know how to do statistics correctly were willing to die on the hill of being completely wrong.
The Monty Haul problem is a long standing math pseudo-paradox based on the game show of the same name. I have three boxes. I put a thousand dollars in one, the other two are empty. I close and shuffle the boxes, then I let you pick one. After you pick one, I open one of the other boxes and show you that it is empty. I now give you the chance to trade the box you have for the remaining unopened box. Question: should you trade.
The wrong answer: it doesn't matter.
Correct answer: you switch. The odds of the money being in your box is 1/3rd, and the odds of the money being in the other remaining box is 2/3rds.
The pseudo-paradox: how did the odds of the money being in the last box change? If it can change, why didn't the odds of my box having the money go up as well, and keep everything 50/50?
There are some colloquial reasons why, but the hard core mathematically precise reason why is subtle, and involves the very underlying definitions of what probability even is. And there are always supposedly well educated mathematicians that will still argue the wrong thing, even though this is something trivial to demonstrate in practice.
Yep, I would guess the logic is (assume you picked Box C) that in a case that they WOULD HAVE wanted to show you a 1/3 probability Box A, but COULDN'T because the prize is actually IN Box A, so then they would HAVE to show you Box B instead. Thus Box B would have inherently absorbed both probabilities that the money was in EITHER A -OR- B, while your Box C odds never changed.
If the money were really in your Box C, they would not have needed to change plans from showing you Box A to begin with.
😀😀
Here's the common sense argument that is intuitive. Suppose it was a million boxes, not three. And suppose there are two players, me and you. You pick first, and pick one box. Now I get to have *all the rest*. Who's more likely to have the money? Now suppose I let you trade your box for *one* of mine? Would you trade? Why bother, the odds are the same. One box is no better than any other, because all of them are equally likely to have the money.
But suppose I were to open 999,998 of mine and show you they are empty. Would you trade now? Of course, because I've just told you which ones are empty. Do you think by opening those boxes I made the game even? I doubt it. I think you still think you had only one in a million chance to get the money and I had 999,999 out of a million chances. Opening those boxes just tells you which one of mine has the money. So you trade.
Same argument works for three. And for those that don't believe either argument, you can simulate this game with a computer program or three cups and a wad of paper. Regardless, you'll discover that the person who always switches very quickly wins more than the person who never switches.
is this the same as the currently available 15000 shard Feature Hero Crystal ?
Is that “locked in” to the currently available Feature Hero Set ?
Or what if you hang on to it for a few months until the NEXT 15000 Feature Set comes around before opening it, will it be the THEN FEATURE SET, or still based on what's in there currently.
So if I have to sacrifice ⁶ random paths, for guaranteed path of my choosing, you damn right I'm gone do it!!!
It's pretty simple actually, if you want a particular class AG, then get the chronometer first and try your luck, now with 100% guarantee to get that gem as long as that particular gem is available in the remaining 13 tries.
Else count your blessing as you try it 18 times without the chronometer.
Hey who knows, you might get another class AG or even awaken that particular champ thus month from the shards (doubtful).
To buy it up front makes zero sense.
That's why it's dumb to buy it up front. If you buy it, run 12 rifts and never see the gem you want, you just wasted six rifts of rewards for nothing.
Do you even understand what you wrote? How do you run 12 while keeping 3k banked, then you say if you run 12 without seeing your gem, run the last 6. If you bank 3k, there's only 12 rifts available, no way to run the other 6!