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Math experts help me here(dual class crystal probability)

I really want to duplicate my Ant Man, let's say(I don't know the exactly numbers of champions of science and mystic in total, but it doesn't matter) there are 45 champions in total of these classes. What is the probability that in 5(50k shards) tries I'm able to get my Ant boy in one of them?
Ps: sorry if there is some grammar error, latino here.
«1345

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    Lucifer1810Lucifer1810 Posts: 366 ★★★
    edited August 2020
    11 percent
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    Roman4544Roman4544 Posts: 85
    Elad17 said:

    1/45 per roll so out of 5 crystals your chances are .00045

    I know the probability to get him in one crystal is 1/45, something around 2%. But what you saying is that I have less chances to pull him, even if I'm opening more crystals??? I should have more chances to get him at least once I think than 2 ish %
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    Roman4544Roman4544 Posts: 85

    I think you have a 2.22% chance per crystal to get an Antman.

    I know, but if I open 5 of them, my chances should be higher than that. I used to know that stuff, but my math nowadays suck
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    Batman_bruce31Batman_bruce31 Posts: 246 ★★
    Hey mate, these crystals don't work like that.
    Each crystal has individual probabilities.
    Lets say you have 2 % chance for 1 crystal.
    The next crystal also has only 2 % chance.
    The probability doesn't add up like that.
    Thats why it's called probability.

    Correct me if i am wrong but i this is what i know.
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    SneakyWarriorSneakyWarrior Posts: 853 ★★★★
    @Elad17 ur math indicates the Probability of pulling consecutive Ant Mans. As for the answer, the probability will remain the same no matter how many crystals you open, 2.22% because opening multiple crystals does not change how likely you are to pull a single champion.
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    Roman4544Roman4544 Posts: 85

    Roman4544 said:

    I think you have a 2.22% chance per crystal to get an Antman.

    I know, but if I open 5 of them, my chances should be higher than that. I used to know that stuff, but my math nowadays suck
    Each crystals has an individual roll of RNG. So each time you open one, the chance remains the same. 2.22%.
    But I don't wanna pull him multiple times, my question is what is the odds to pull him ONE TIME out of these 5. Let's take heads or tails for example. I wanna bet on Heads to show up 1 time only in 10 tries, my chances definitely should be higher than 1/2 or 50%. It could pop 9 Tails, I only wanna get 1 Heads..
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    Clarkkent76Clarkkent76 Posts: 282
    It's exactly the same as rolling dice hoping for a 6. If you roll one dice, it's 1/6. If you roll 6 dice and you only want one 6 there are 6 available positive outcomes out of 36 available outcomes, so it's 6/36 which is....1/6.
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    MecikiMeciki Posts: 2
    edited August 2020
    Nm
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    HeattblasttHeattblastt Posts: 254 ★★
    Almost 11%
    (5/45) ×100~ 11%
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    Roman4544Roman4544 Posts: 85
    Mayis said:

    Roman4544 said:



    The probability that you will pull one in one try is:

    P = 1/N

    P = 1/45 = 2.22%

    The probability will be the same for every crystal opening but the probability of success that you will pull him after a number of tries can be computed with:

    1-(1-P)^n

    where n is the number of tries:

    1-(1-0.0222~)^5

    10.63%

    Mayis said:

    There are 45 champs and we want 1 of them — Ant-man. You have 44/45 chance of not getting ant-man on single try, so if u multiply 44/45 * 44/45 *... five times (its power 5 in english, i guess) u get the probability of NOT getting him in five tries.

    So if we substract this number from 1, we get the chances to get at least 1 ant-man in 5 tries. Its a number from 0 to 1, and to convert it to percents just multiply it by 100. The answer is near to 10.6 %



    Hope this explanation will help u in future

    I can see you guys know what you saying, but you are saying by that explanation that if in 5 tries I have 10 ish %, so if I open 50 crystals I have more than 100% to get him? That's we know for sure it might not happen.
    No, in 50 tries u should multiply 44/45 with himself 50 times. Its still in range 0-1
    Thanks man!
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    ShafeeqShafeeq Posts: 569 ★★★

    The probability that you will pull one in one try is:

    P = 1/N

    P = 1/45 = 2.22%

    The probability will be the same for every crystal opening but the probability of success that you will pull him after a number of tries can be computed with:

    1-(1-P)^n

    where n is the number of tries:

    1-(1-0.0222~)^5

    10.63%

    The probability that you will pull one in one try is:

    P = 1/N

    P = 1/45 = 2.22%

    The probability will be the same for every crystal opening but the probability of success that you will pull him after a number of tries can be computed with:

    1-(1-P)^n

    where n is the number of tries:

    1-(1-0.0222~)^5

    10.63%

    Wish I studied my probability classes from forums
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    Roman4544Roman4544 Posts: 85
    edited August 2020
    Mayis said:

    Above I gave u the chances of pulling AT LEAST 1 ant-man. Here I'll give the chances of pulling exact 1 ant-man

    If we want the event to occur exactly k times out of n tries, the probability will be:

    P(k) = (n, k) * p^k * (1-p)^(n-k)
    where ^k is k degree
    p is probability of occuring the event in single try
    (n, k) = n!/((n-k)!k!) (it's called COMBINATION, u can google it if u want to do other calculations. its total number of potential successes, bc we can get ant-man in first, second, third, fourth and fifth crystals)

    Our event is getting ant-man, and it's probability in single try is 1/45
    1-p = 44/45
    our n is 5, because we have 5 tries
    and k = 1, because we want to get him 1 time

    So we get

    P(1) = (5, 1) * 1/45 * (44/45)^4
    (5,1) is 5

    I'll spare u the math: we get

    P(1) = 0.1015

    Again, in probability we work with numbers from 0 to 1, so to convert it to percents we just multiply it by 100: chances are 10.15 %

    As u see, the chances of getting EXACTLY 1 ant-man are smaller, than getting AT LEAST one, because latter contains situations with 2, 3, 4 and 5 ant-mans.

    So, again: chances of getting 1 ant-man are 10.15 %, and chances of getting AT LEAST 1 ant-man are 10,62 %. If u want to, u can use this formulas with another number of tries (n), another number of potential successes (k) and probability (p). For example, if u want to both pull and dupe someone, k will be equal to 2. For incursions crystal p will be equal to 1/10, because there are 10 possible pools.

    Excellent explanation thanks! I will study this tomorrow, my head is so broken right now, long time since I don't practice this.
    ps: the detail you mentioned(about one time only and at least) reminded of my math teacher who always make sure that we pay very close attention to the whole title of the question and their tricky meaning
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