New Crystal Update

The coming update does sound good but here is the problem I have with it. Of all the grandmaster crystals I have ever opened, I've only received 2 4 star champs and all the rest were 3 star champs. I have yet to pull a 5 star and now the drop rate percentage will be even lower now. This could only mean that the chances of me pulling a nexus crystal would be slim and none. The drop rate percentages are way too low as it is and I've been playing this game from day one and haven't missed a login in years. I play daily so you would think I would have a greater chance at pulling a 5 star champ but that is not the case. How is this a benefit? I still believe this is the best Android game ever and the only game to hold my attention for so long.

Cheers.

Comments

LeNoirFaineant

The drop rate isn't lower. It's exactly the same. The odds of pulling a 5* haven't changed at all. The odds of pulling a non nexus 5* are slightly smaller, and the odds of pulling a nexus are very small. The odds of pulling either a nexus or a regular 5* are the same as the current odds of pulling a 5*.

No_oneuk

Why do you think the 5* drop rate will be lower!?

DNA3000

The coming update does sound good but here is the problem I have with it. Of all the grandmaster crystals I have ever opened, I've only received 2 4 star champs and all the rest were 3 star champs. I have yet to pull a 5 star and now the drop rate percentage will be even lower now. This could only mean that the chances of me pulling a nexus crystal would be slim and none. The drop rate percentages are way too low as it is and I've been playing this game from day one and haven't missed a login in years. I play daily so you would think I would have a greater chance at pulling a 5 star champ but that is not the case. How is this a benefit? I still believe this is the best Android game ever and the only game to hold my attention for so long.

Cheers.

The odds are not dropping. I tried to explain what's happening in the announcement thread using a mental model that simplifies things here: https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/1421588/#Comment_1421588. That description applies to the Cavalier crystals, but a similar idea holds for the Grandmaster and other crystals.

ItsDamien

In layman's terms, if you land on a 5* it has the chance to become a nexus.

unknown

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HavocGamer49

I just opened my first ever gm and got a 4* 🤯

MaxGaming

I just opened my first ever gm and got a 4* 🤯

Aww how cute

and 2 more

DNA3000

In layman's terms, if you land on a 5* it has the chance to become a nexus.

This works, but because of how featured odds work this is slightly tricky to extend to describe what happens with featured crystals.

shadow_lurker22

So many people on these forums failed math apparently.

Lobster44

Yeah I fail to see how this is a meaningful buff. Think about how many 5*s you get from grandmasters (aka barely any), now you get to pick 20% of them from a pool of 3. Nexus crystals are cool and it's nice to see them incorporated more into the game, but the odds here are just so bad I don't see how it's going to affect anyone.

Crcrcrc

The bar is the 5* drop rate. Notice it stays the same size when the nexus chance gets added. Nexus is dark red and 5* is red

DNA3000

Yeah I fail to see how this is a meaningful buff. Think about how many 5*s you get from grandmasters (aka barely any), now you get to pick 20% of them from a pool of 3. Nexus crystals are cool and it's nice to see them incorporated more into the game, but the odds here are just so bad I don't see how it's going to affect anyone.

I think in all the Cav crystals I've opened I've gotten two 6* champs total. But I've gotten quite a few 5* champs, so the odds that I'll see a few 5* Nexus crystals from Cavs is not bad.

But let's try to answer this question, because a lot of people keep saying they can't see how this will help anyone. Some people open a lot of Grandmaster or Cav crystals, some only open a few. Let's say the average player opens just ten Grandmaster crystals in a year. That averages out across players that open many, and some that open none. 3% of those will be 5* champs, and one fifth of those, or 0.6% net, will pop open as Nexus crystals.

And let's say out of the millions of people who play this game (well, over a million at least) only the top 100,00 are opening those average ten crystals per year. Everyone else we don't count at all. That's about one million grandmaster crystals. That equates to an average of 6000 Nexus crystals per year. So thousands of players will see at least one, and this is likely extremely conservative. I would bet money the real number is much higher.

Even if the Cav opening numbers are similar, and again I suspect they are much higher, that would still be 2000 6* Nexus crystals per year across the game. That doesn't mean 2000 players will see the Nexus opening because this wouldn't be distributed uniformly, but it is still likely that the real numbers are thousands of players.

So yeah, even a small percentage of players getting these ends up being thousands, if not tens of thousands of players over a time scale of a year. Not an insignificant number of players benefiting from the change.

How about going from the other direction. Let's ignore the whales, because they can just buy whatever they want, and consider the case of an F2P arena grinder. Doing all the arena milestones nets you about 7000 units a month. That's a lot of grinding, so let's consider someone doing only half the milestones, which is actually less than half the time (the last milestones take more time than the first ones do). Such a player could, if they are trying to build up their roster, buy 15 Cavs a month. But let's reduce that to 10 Cavs a month and say the rest of the units are saved up for other things. That's 120 Cavs a year. Such a player could expect to pull 1.2 6* champs a year from those Cavs on average, and 13.2 5* champs. This kind of player would get a 6* Nexus on average on every four years, and between two and three 5* nexus crystals ever year. That means 6* nexus crystals would be uncommon, but 5* crystals would be less so.

So both from the global perspective of guestimating how many players in the playerbase would see these Nexus crystals, and how likely it is someone who is actually acquiring and opening these kinds of crystals in the first place in any notable quantities would see these nexus crystals, they do in fact have a measurable impact on the playerbase. They would not be so rare so as to be unnoticable for a single player, and something between thousands and tens of thousands of players would be seeing them. That cannot be dismissed as not really benefitting anyone.