Arena battle chip crystal change?

Was wondering if other people have been getting less units in their battle chip crystals. I usually get the uncollected ones, out of 100k chips I’d get around 800-900 units.. this month has been 225 units out of 200k chips.

Anyone seeing this also? And does getting cavalier change the algorithm?

Comments

unknown

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Jaded

No, not seeing it.
And no being cavalier won’t matter for your arena crystals.

KRoNX1

I got nothing this month. Absolutely nothing

Riptide

RNG

winterthur

That is very good!

ShtickRick

I know its RNG, but 15 uncollected arena crystals with only gold doesn't feel good

Unyonface

I have over 30 million in gold and sometimes all I get is gold out of 100k/10 UC bc crystals. Definitely RNG because the last 6 I just opened, 3 at a time, I have gotten 225 units each time.

Destroyer123

That’s insanely good rng spoiled you if I recall the average was around 2k per million bcs

ABOMB

Just popped 300K chips of uncollected and got about 500 units..not sure if thats good or not but it seems about in the range of my previous openings.

Jr_Stark

I once opened 700k worth of battlechips (70x UC) after becoming Cavalier and got only 450 units with 2.2M gold. Since then I have limited myself to normal arena crystals (2000 cost one) and tbh, I get better unit drop rates in it. I open them in a batch of 10 normal crystals, which give me around 60-120 units every time (120 is the highest I got). So I would advise sticking with the basic one.

Also being Uncollected/Cavalier/TB doesn't change the drop rates.

Corkscrew

Honestly that seems about 4x the rate I normally get. I almost always open 200K chips and get about 300-500 units. Over the last year, I've very rarely seen it diverge from that worst being about 200 units and best being about 650 units. How many times have you done BC openings because your "average" seems incredibly high.

Daddrieda

Drop rate are the same in normal arena crystal and uncollected arena crystal. Only difference is that uncollected arena crystal gives 5x more value of what Normal arena crystal would give. We just had bad RNG. Sometimes when opening 100k I get 400 units and sometimes just golds, but it eventually grows fast.

Liquidkold

They are the same. Very RNG dependent. I open a million uncollected battle chips at a time. I get from about 1800 tto about 2200 units every time.

FiiNCH

You need to understand the drop rates in uncollected crystals are very inconsistent.

A ton of analysis has been done on the drop rates. The accepted rule for battlechips is the average per million is 2k units.

Regular battlechips have a better chance of achieving the average of 2k units, however the uncollected ones offer increased variability. You can get way above the average (as you seem to have done) however you can also get way below the average also.

Search through some of @DNA3000 threads, he’s done some comprehensive analysis.

DNA3000

I believe you are misremembering your drops. There's simply no way to get 900 units in 10 UC arena crystals on any consistent basis.

To put this into perspective, 100k chips is 10 UC crystals. There are two unit drops possible for UC arena crystals: 225 units and 75 units. The 75 unit drop is more common. But let's say someone were to get those at a 50/50 even split. It would then take six drops to equal 900 units - three each. So to get 900 units out of 10 crystals you'd have to see six out of ten crystals be units. But let's say you never get the lower drop and only get the higher drop. It would then take four unit drops to reach 900 units. The stated drop rate for units in those crystals is 15% (which testing has confirmed is more or less accurate). Someone getting 900 units out of ten crystals on average would have to either be consistently averaging twice the unit drop rate that is both stated and measured and only getting the best unit drops possible, or even more than twice the drop rate assuming they get a more normal spread of unit drops.

I now have 1800 crystals recorded. In that data, I believe there's only a single stretch of ten consecutive crystals that equals or exceeds 900 units.

That's what 900 units in ten crystals looks like in a sea of openings (technically, it is 1050 units).

DNA3000

The statistical average for ten regular arena crystals would be about 18 units. 60 units would require averaging one 15 unit drop an one 45 unit drop (the two possibilities for normal arena crystals) every ten openings on average, which is significantly above the stated 15% drop rate (and also significantly above the split odds for the lower and higher drop).

450 units is significantly below the average for 70 UC arena crystals. The average would be closer to ~1300 or so. You probably got a bad luck opening with the UCs, then got a good luck opening with the normals, then stopped keeping close tabs on the normals. Even 60, much less 120, is so far above the average that if you think you're getting that on average, you should start recording your openings.

N0toriousRED53

Appreciate all the responses! I guess I was lucky for awhile! 800-900 was a rounded range... the last 100k before this post was 975 units out of 100k chips in UC. I would normally open 2 at a time. I’ll keep track again. Hopefully my luck has been given to someone else!

Jr_Stark

The drop rate remains the same, yes I agree. I was speaking in my experience that Normal crystal gave me more units than the UC one. It can vary from person to person.

Jr_Stark

I don't have video but got pictures - 10+1 Normal Arena Crystals

CaptainGame

I grind arena a lot and have usually found units once or twice a week out of 6 or 7 crystals. I haven’t pulled units since December. I don’t believe in something that can’t be proven like Rng. Rigged number generator is easier to prove based off consistently getting shards for catalysts I don’t need to send into overflow though. Especially when there are t4 selector deals randomly popping up here and there too. Makes sense on the sales side. Unethical but still.

Mr_Platypus

Yes that’s called getting very lucky.
Not impossible, just lucky.

unknown

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Wubbie075

With the regular crystals you're a little more likely to get closer to the expected distribution because you're opening more crystals for the same number of battlechips, and the more crystals you open the closer it will be, in general.

With the UC crystals, you're more likely to see somewhat more extreme distributions in one direction of the other in the smaller number of crystals, but again, the more crystals you open, the more it will approach the expected distribution.

In most (all?) cases, we're not popping enough crystals in a single opening to overcome the short term variance. That's why long term data collection like DNA's is valuable. I have no clue how many crystals it would actually take, but if we were somehow able to collect data for every single opening by every single summoner over a significant period of time (like 6 months or a year,) we'll probably see something pretty close to the programmed drop rates. Someone with an actual background in probability and statistics would be able to give a better answer on how many crystals it would actually take.

Jr_Stark

Yes, it's called luck. I was totally talking about my experience and I felt normal gives more units than UC one. Some out there can have an entirely different experience and I'm fine with it. I just wanted to give an idea to OP to try basic next time because I was suggested the same when I got very less units from UC and now I'm happy with the units I get from normal.

Got this today from basic

Gamer

That’s u it there is very lucky

N0toriousRED53

120k battle chips and still no units... RNG REALLY NOT GOOD hahaha

DNA3000

You said "every time." Once or twice is possible, but over large numbers it is incredibly unlikely.

N0toriousRED53

150k battles chips no units so i saved 50k for when the new month event starts to see if it changes haha

TheBoogyMan

This is the level of commitment kabam expects from each of us...lol

N0toriousRED53

10 UC crystals(100k battle chips)
Ssssssick