2000 Uncollected Arena Crystals

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ItsDamien

Explain this (regular crystals),. I noticed the drop rate of units are very low when you open them while you are stuck in a quest. (Dynamic drop rate Patent)

The patent has nothing to do with RNG in game. Patents are registered so that the creator has some legal right if it is used by anyone else. Hell there's probably a patent to put a laser focuser on the moon to target cities. Doesn't mean it'll ever be used.

In other words, you got unlucky.

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ItsDamien

Explain this (regular crystals),. I noticed the drop rate of units are very low when you open them while you are stuck in a quest. (Dynamic drop rate Patent)

The patent has nothing to do with RNG in game. Patents are registered so that the creator has some legal right if it is used by anyone else. Hell there's probably a patent to put a laser focuser on the moon to target cities. Doesn't mean it'll ever be used.

In other words, you got unlucky.
Yeah they worked so hard to create that Patent but smh not using in their most popular game lol

Lots of companies have patents registered that are as beneficial to them, or have greater benefit, and don't use them.

Having a patent does not mean it is being used. Believing that it is, is conspiratorial and against the forum rules.

RamOnTheLake

You’re saying he’s wrong because he has no proof but where’s your proof that they aren’t using these patents? The only thing we know for a fact is that Kabam owns these patents. It’s not conspiratorial to suggest that Kabam is using a patent that they own. If a company can legally use a patent that would make them more money, then why the hell wouldn’t they use it? Remember this is the same company that only started showing their drop rates on crystals because the apple store forced them to. Also if you want the newly released characters you need to spend thousands of dollars. What about Kabam suggests they aren’t a company that would use anything at their disposal to make money? Of course, we can’t actually confirm if they’re using it but you can’t just dismiss the possibility because some companies have patents they don’t use. There’s also a lot of companies that do extremely unethical/questionable things so why doesn’t that apply here too?

SpideyFunko

well this turned into exactly what I expected it would turn into

Nice data DNA!

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SummonerNR

redacting my own “Space Lasers” comment, putting something useful instead 😀

Fyi, here's DNA's original analysis set from a while back that he mentioned...

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/173631/arena-crystal-drop-odds-analysis#latest

(Dynamic drop rate Patent)

You're going to have to be more specific. Precisely which "dynamic drop rate patent" are you referring to. Because I've read them all, and every time this comes up it turns out the people attempting to point this out haven't read the patent and do not understand what invention it claims to patent. None of them, when you read them, appear to have anything to do with MCOC.

You might be one of those people who thinks that Kabam has a patent that lets them adjust the drop rates of crystals whenever they want. But that's not true, because that's not even patentable. Patents must be specific and novel, and all of Kabam's loobox related patents specifically patent very specific things. I know because I've read them all, multiple times, and analyzed them all when this first came out, and the second time this was brought up, and two years ago when this was all brought up again.

For example, there's this patent: Mystery boxes that adjust due to past spending behavior. That doesn't seem relevant here. Also, COWhale's channel pretty much destroys the notion that this patent was used for any high value crystal in MCOC (I know because I used his videos to do exactly that).

People like to point out this one also: System and method for rotating drop rates in a mystery box. If you read that one, this is a patent for using spending data to periodically change the drop rates of old lootboxes to increase their perceived value so people will become more interested in buying them again. Which, you know, requires Kabam to actually inform the players when they do this for it to actually work.

This one just blows my mind every time someone mentions it: Dynamic item obtain rate based on player progression, action, and other in-game behavior. People read only the title and see "dynamic item obtain rate" and think "lootbox manipulation." However, if you read the patent it doesn't describe that at all: it actually describes a method for applying handicap bonuses to players of lower progress level to make it easier for them to complete content to obtain progressional rewards.

If your knowledge of this comes from Youtube videos, all of the ones I've seen have been uniformly uninformed. If your knowledge of this comes from Reddit, as far as I'm aware this particular tin foil hattery seems to have fallen out of favor there in the last couple years. Here on these forums, I haven't had to break down one of these in quite a while now.

SpideyFunko

(Dynamic drop rate Patent)
You're going to have to be more specific. Precisely which "dynamic drop rate patent" are you referring to. Because I've read them all, and every time this comes up it turns out the people attempting to point this out haven't read the patent and do not understand what invention it claims to patent. None of them, when you read them, appear to have anything to do with MCOC.

You might be one of those people who thinks that Kabam has a patent that lets them adjust the drop rates of crystals whenever they want. But that's not true, because that's not even patentable. Patents must be specific and novel, and all of Kabam's loobox related patents specifically patent very specific things. I know because I've read them all, multiple times, and analyzed them all when this first came out, and the second time this was brought up, and two years ago when this was all brought up again.

For example, there's this patent: Mystery boxes that adjust due to past spending behavior. That doesn't seem relevant here. Also, COWhale's channel pretty much destroys the notion that this patent was used for any high value crystal in MCOC (I know because I used his videos to do exactly that).

People like to point out this one also: System and method for rotating drop rates in a mystery box. If you read that one, this is a patent for using spending data to periodically change the drop rates of old lootboxes to increase their perceived value so people will become more interested in buying them again. Which, you know, requires Kabam to actually inform the players when they do this for it to actually work.

This one just blows my mind every time someone mentions it: Dynamic item obtain rate based on player progression, action, and other in-game behavior. People read only the title and see "dynamic item obtain rate" and think "lootbox manipulation." However, if you read the patent it doesn't describe that at all: it actually describes a method for applying handicap bonuses to players of lower progress level to make it easier for them to complete content to obtain progressional rewards.

If your knowledge of this comes from Youtube videos, all of the ones I've seen have been uniformly uninformed. If your knowledge of this comes from Reddit, as far as I'm aware this particular tin foil hattery seems to have fallen out of favor there in the last couple years. Here on these forums, I haven't had to break down one of these in quite a while now.

he’s probably a prof hoff viewer tbh

danielmath

You’re saying he’s wrong because he has no proof but where’s your proof that they aren’t using these patents? The only thing we know for a fact is that Kabam owns these patents. It’s not conspiratorial to suggest that Kabam is using a patent that they own. If a company can legally use a patent that would make them more money, then why the hell wouldn’t they use it? Remember this is the same company that only started showing their drop rates on crystals because the apple store forced them to. Also if you want the newly released characters you need to spend thousands of dollars. What about Kabam suggests they aren’t a company that would use anything at their disposal to make money? Of course, we can’t actually confirm if they’re using it but you can’t just dismiss the possibility because some companies have patents they don’t use. There’s also a lot of companies that do extremely unethical/questionable things so why doesn’t that apply here too?

Pretty much anytime someone actually compiled a meaningful sample size in this game, it’s matchup the given odds. There’s never been anything shown to question the rng. All the complaints are when someone opens a few crystals and gets unlucky.

You’re saying he’s wrong because he has no proof but where’s your proof that they aren’t using these patents? The only thing we know for a fact is that Kabam owns these patents. It’s not conspiratorial to suggest that Kabam is using a patent that they own. If a company can legally use a patent that would make them more money, then why the hell wouldn’t they use it? Remember this is the same company that only started showing their drop rates on crystals because the apple store forced them to. Also if you want the newly released characters you need to spend thousands of dollars. What about Kabam suggests they aren’t a company that would use anything at their disposal to make money? Of course, we can’t actually confirm if they’re using it but you can’t just dismiss the possibility because some companies have patents they don’t use. There’s also a lot of companies that do extremely unethical/questionable things so why doesn’t that apply here too?

We don't have to trust Kabam on whether they are using any of the previously discussed patents, we can just read them and ask whether those specific inventions appear to be applicable to anything Kabam does in MCOC. And none of them do. It is not a question of whether they would use them or not, it is a much simpler question of whether any of them describe something that wouldn't be obvious if done in MCOC. And so far as I can see, all of the patents attached to Kabam either describe patents that would be blatantly obvious if implemented in MCOC or describe patents that have nothing to do with anything MCOC does.

Explain this (regular crystals),. I noticed the drop rate of units are very low when you open them while you are stuck in a quest.

I should also point out the game has no way to know if you are "stuck in a quest." The game engine is simply not that smart. I open crystals when I am in or out of AQ, in or out of AW, and in or out of content. The game has no way to know whether at that moment I am "stuck" or not, unless you think at the beginning of time Kabam added a deep learning AI to the Unity engine to monitor player activity. Which, if they did, would have made them the most sophisticated game development studio on the planet back in 2013.

They could have added it later you say? They swapped one version of Unity for another newer version of Unity back in 2017 and broke well-timed blocks for months. That seems unlikely.

Generation of energy on surface of moon, and transport of the energy to earth by laser

Hell there's probably a patent to put a laser focuser on the moon to target cities.

RamOnTheLake

You’re saying he’s wrong because he has no proof but where’s your proof that they aren’t using these patents? The only thing we know for a fact is that Kabam owns these patents. It’s not conspiratorial to suggest that Kabam is using a patent that they own. If a company can legally use a patent that would make them more money, then why the hell wouldn’t they use it? Remember this is the same company that only started showing their drop rates on crystals because the apple store forced them to. Also if you want the newly released characters you need to spend thousands of dollars. What about Kabam suggests they aren’t a company that would use anything at their disposal to make money? Of course, we can’t actually confirm if they’re using it but you can’t just dismiss the possibility because some companies have patents they don’t use. There’s also a lot of companies that do extremely unethical/questionable things so why doesn’t that apply here too?
We don't have to trust Kabam on whether they are using any of the previously discussed patents, we can just read them and ask whether those specific inventions appear to be applicable to anything Kabam does in MCOC. And none of them do. It is not a question of whether they would use them or not, it is a much simpler question of whether any of them describe something that wouldn't be obvious if done in MCOC. And so far as I can see, all of the patents attached to Kabam either describe patents that would be blatantly obvious if implemented in MCOC or describe patents that have nothing to do with anything MCOC does.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ContestOfChampions/comments/ghpxw1/to_all_the_players_who_keep_saying_equal_chance/?ref=share&ref_source=link

“(18) In exemplary implementations, the system and method provides for drop rates associated with virtual items to be modified based on one or more "triggers" associated with a specific player, set of players or across all players of the game. When these triggers are met, the system then makes a change to drop rates associated with one or more virtual items which are available for purchase. (19) In some implementations, triggers may include an individual player purchasing a threshold number of mystery boxes in general or an individual purchasing a threshold number of a specific mystery box. In other implementations, a trigger may require a player to hold a threshold number of mystery boxes in that player's virtual goods inventory, or alternatively, hold a threshold number of a specific mystery box or set of mystery boxes in the player's virtual goods inventory. In these cases, if the trigger is met, when the specific player makes a purchase of an applicable mystery box, that player will obtain a different drop rate for one or more of the virtual items in the mystery box. Typically, the different drop rate will comprise an enhanced drop rate such that the player is more likely to obtain a high value virtual item although this is not required.”

First off I don’t necessarily agree with _sham_, but I disagree with the idea that Kabam wouldn’t use their shady patents because other companies don’t. The patent I linked is certainly applicable and this would be impossible to detect without lots and lots of data. This patent is about changing drop rates based on triggers(“triggers may include an individual player purchasing a threshold number of mystery boxes in general or an individual purchasing a threshold number of a specific mystery box”) which is states can include spending habits. I don’t have proof that this patent is being implemented but you also don’t have proof that it isn’t being implemented. I also don’t believe it’s as simple as, “can I personally detect the use of this patent”? Unless you have access to all of kabam’s user data, it would be impossible to detect something like this. The only factual things in this conversation is that Kabam owns a couple questionable patents and they’ve done shady things in the past(bait and switch with that 12.0 update/refusing to show drop rates until being it became mandatory). Like I said, I’m not saying Kabam is actually using these patents but I’m also not going to vindicate them when their is no justifiable reason to own such questionable patents.

Explain this (regular crystals),. I noticed the drop rate of units are very low when you open them while you are stuck in a quest. (Dynamic drop rate Patent)

The patent has nothing to do with RNG in game. Patents are registered so that the creator has some legal right if it is used by anyone else. Hell there's probably a patent to put a laser focuser on the moon to target cities. Doesn't mean it'll ever be used.

In other words, you got unlucky.
Yeah they worked so hard to create that Patent but smh not using in their most popular game lol
Lots of companies have patents registered that are as beneficial to them, or have greater benefit, and don't use them.

Having a patent does not mean it is being used. Believing that it is, is conspiratorial and against the forum rules.

I don't know if it is conspiratorial per se, but it is an odd assumption. For example, Kabam has this patent:

System and method for providing a quest from a probability item bundle in an online game

Why aren't people coming to the forums demanding to know why they aren't getting those quest keys? Also, a lot of people probably wish they implemented this one:

System and method for implementing a refund calculator in a game.

And I'm not sure how you'd force it into this game:

System and method for providing separate drift and steering controls

but it would probably make playing MODOK ten times more awesome.

“(18) In exemplary implementations, the system and method provides for drop rates associated with virtual items to be modified based on one or more "triggers" associated with a specific player, set of players or across all players of the game. When these triggers are met, the system then makes a change to drop rates associated with one or more virtual items which are available for purchase. (19) In some implementations, triggers may include an individual player purchasing a threshold number of mystery boxes in general or an individual purchasing a threshold number of a specific mystery box. In other implementations, a trigger may require a player to hold a threshold number of mystery boxes in that player's virtual goods inventory, or alternatively, hold a threshold number of a specific mystery box or set of mystery boxes in the player's virtual goods inventory. In these cases, if the trigger is met, when the specific player makes a purchase of an applicable mystery box, that player will obtain a different drop rate for one or more of the virtual items in the mystery box. Typically, the different drop rate will comprise an enhanced drop rate such that the player is more likely to obtain a high value virtual item although this is not required.”

You are making the common error of presuming that the patent covers every single thing mentioned in the patent separately. In other words, if it says they can adjust drop rates based on player actions, they've invented and patented the ability to do that. That's legally false. The quote above appears to come from the infamous "Mystery box" patent. The invention covered by that patent contains *all* of the elements listed as claims in the patent.

Anyone can read the patent here: https://patents.justia.com/patent/10307666. But if anyone is actually going to take the time to read it, I would recommend jumping straight to the section called "Claims." That section is the meat of the patent. I will quote a section of it to point out something that I keep pointing out, but no one seems to figure out on their own:

4. The system of claim 1, wherein said triggering criteria that result in adjustment of the first distribution probability includes a number of purchases within a given period of time of said first probability item bundle by a collective group of users that participate in said online game.

5. The system of claim 4, wherein said adjustment comprises an adjustment to a higher probability in connection with a lower level of purchases.

6. The system of claim 1, wherein said triggering criteria that result in adjustment of the first distribution probability includes a current level of inventory of said first probability item bundle held by said first user.

7. The system of claim 6, wherein said adjustment comprises an adjustment to a higher probability in connection with a higher level of inventory.

8. The system of claim 1, wherein said triggering criteria that result in adjustment of the first distribution probability includes a spend velocity associated with at least one of said probability item bundles within a given period of time by a collective group of users that participate in said online game.

9. The system of claim 8, wherein said adjustment comprises an adjustment to higher probability in connection with a lower level of spend velocity.

Notice it says over and over gain: "a system blah blah blah where the probability adjustment is higher based on blah blah." Repeatedly: a system where we look at this, and then adjust the probabilities UPWARD to reflect that. Why does it always say upward and never downward?

Because the patent explicitly states that its purpose is to ENHANCE the probabilities of the lootboxes to make them MORE ATTRACTIVE when interest in them wanes.

Now, how many people believe that Kabam does this? Makes crystals better so people buy more of them? Anyone?

Now, what about the statement "Typically, the different drop rate will comprise an enhanced drop rate such that the player is more likely to obtain a high value virtual item although this is not required." Doesn't this mean it isn't required to increase the value of the lootbox? No: it refers specifically to "high value items." You don't have to explicitly tweak the drop odds of high value items to make a lootbox more attractive, and the patent is careful to state that this is not necessary to prevent alternate patents from attempting to interpret this one narrowly.

There's also a smoking gun in the patent that ensures beyond any shadow of a doubt this patent specifically is not in use in MCOC:

12. The system of claim 1, further comprising a messaging component configured to notify users of a change in at least one of said distribution probabilities.

The patent explicitly states that one of the features of the invention is a method for notifying players of the change in odds. Why? Because how else are you going to encourage people to buy more of them if you don't TELL them that you've made the odds better? This would be obvious to anyone who read the patent in its entirety and understood the stated purpose of the invention: to encourage people to buy older lootboxes that had become less attractive over time.

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xNig

You’re saying he’s wrong because he has no proof but where’s your proof that they aren’t using these patents? The only thing we know for a fact is that Kabam owns these patents. It’s not conspiratorial to suggest that Kabam is using a patent that they own. If a company can legally use a patent that would make them more money, then why the hell wouldn’t they use it? Remember this is the same company that only started showing their drop rates on crystals because the apple store forced them to. Also if you want the newly released characters you need to spend thousands of dollars. What about Kabam suggests they aren’t a company that would use anything at their disposal to make money? Of course, we can’t actually confirm if they’re using it but you can’t just dismiss the possibility because some companies have patents they don’t use. There’s also a lot of companies that do extremely unethical/questionable things so why doesn’t that apply here too?

The fact is, you cannot prove something that isn’t happening. For example, how do you prove that you’re not an alcoholic?

So it’s always assumed innocent until proven guilty.

Don't forget when game came out there was data mining and there were proof posted that this game was based on well known Gatcha system.

This is an odd statement to make, because "Gatcha" based reward systems require no datamining or examination of the code to determine. In its simplest form, the champion crystals in MCOC are a form of gatcha reward system: they drop random champions from a large collection. Why would you datamine the game to attempt to prove this? This is something you could determine by playing the game, or by Kabam's own statements about how the crystals work.

I believe it is profile base because that's what I have noticed during my 6 years of playing this game. And that's more logical for a company to implement such system to make more money.

If this were true this would be easy to prove, because by definition if the game is changing the odds of crystals on you based on some kind of user profile in a way you could notice by human observation, careful data collection would be able to prove it beyond reasonable doubt. Conversely if you cannot detect that shift in odds through careful data collection, by definition it is something human observation alone cannot notice.

There's no way to prove the negative. However, at some point the default position has to be that the burden of proof is on those attempting to make the claim, because once you've looked at all the different crystals I have across all the different players of different types that I have and failed to find an odds discrepancy large enough to matter (if it was tiny and undetectable by me, what possible benefit could Kabam be getting from such small deviations from normal probability), the probability that there is such things going on in the game but they exist in a way that just happens to be unnoticable by me or anyone else who has done a credible data analysis becomes vanishingly small.

To put it another way, if you believe the game manipulates crystal odds based on player profiles, why am I immune? I've been looking at crystals for a very long time. I'm not a famous Youtuber and four years ago when I started analyzing PHC drops Kabam had no idea who I was. Even if you think they are playing four dimensional chess and are specifically freezing random crystals for anyone who measures them carefully and anyone who streams crystal openings (which would preserve any data of tampering) and anyone else they happen to think would be dangerous to manipulate, how did I evade manipulation from the beginning?

This game makes a ton of money. The incremental revenue increase from tiny random manipulation so small no one can detect it objectively seems to be not worth the risk associated with hidden tampering of RNG crystals.

And frankly you think we need a super AI to know the status of the player if they are or not in a Quest and how many units or revives they have ? It's just simple database query.

You said "stuck on a quest" which requires intelligence. If you believe that the game manipulates arena crystal odds based only on whether you are in a quest or not when the crystals are opened, that's an assertion I can demonstrate to be false in my crystal data.

Hell there's probably a patent to put a laser focuser on the moon to target cities.
Generation of energy on surface of moon, and transport of the energy to earth by laser

OMG. Hahahahaha.

@DNA3000 First I want make it clear that I am not one of those conspiracy theorist tin foil dude and I don't watch prof hof or whatever his name is.

Second I am big fan of your posts , I like how you always describe thing with detail and with intelligent thoughts. I never disagreed any of your post and find them so helpful.

I will be honest I haven't read all those patents posted by Kabam, there are so many and I don't have time or energy to read all that.

But I have been playing this game for more then 6 years and I have noticed alot of weird things and pattern regarding odds of stuff you need. For example for last 2 months I noticed I need Mutant sig stones and I have been putting it on a specific champ and all of sudden since 2 months either I don't get mutant at all or I get just 1 each time I open 10. And I have opened 100s. This is just 1 example.

Don't forget when game came out there was data mining and there were proof posted that this game was based on well known Gatcha system. I am pretty sure you know what is gacha system and what is it's purpose.

And frankly you think we need a super AI to know the status of the player if they are or not in a Quest and how many units or revives they have ? It's just simple database query.

We have no way sure to know because there hasn't been any Audit by any independent auditors of their system so neither you nor me can say it with 100% if it is real RNG or player profile base RNG.

I believe it is profile base because that's what I have noticed during my 6 years of playing this game. And that's more logical for a company to implement such system to make more money.

You're not a conspiracy theorist and your name is _Sham_? Hmm....

SummonerNR

@DNA3000 , you may want to backup the text of your original post up top here, maybe append to your earlier analysis thread (that one only slightly went “off the rails”, as opposed to what this one is turning into).

Or Kabam could just clean this one up.

You’re saying he’s wrong because he has no proof but where’s your proof that they aren’t using these patents? The only thing we know for a fact is that Kabam owns these patents. It’s not conspiratorial to suggest that Kabam is using a patent that they own. If a company can legally use a patent that would make them more money, then why the hell wouldn’t they use it? Remember this is the same company that only started showing their drop rates on crystals because the apple store forced them to. Also if you want the newly released characters you need to spend thousands of dollars. What about Kabam suggests they aren’t a company that would use anything at their disposal to make money? Of course, we can’t actually confirm if they’re using it but you can’t just dismiss the possibility because some companies have patents they don’t use. There’s also a lot of companies that do extremely unethical/questionable things so why doesn’t that apply here too?
The fact is, you cannot prove something that isn’t happening. For example, how do you prove that you’re not an alcoholic?

So it’s always assumed innocent until proven guilty.

We can disprove that Kabam does everything possible to make as much money as possible as they give stuff away.

You could argue that *everything* they do serves to ultimately make more money, even giving things away. But then all that says is if they aren't using the patented techniques, that's just because they know it won't make more money. In other words it says nothing about what they are or are not doing.

I've been posting data and analyses for a very long time now, and will continue to do so. I cannot control what people do with any of it. Some people will use that data objectively, and some will let their own subjective biases override them. A while ago I decided that the best path forward was not to focus on disproving the subjective stuff, but to strengthen the objective stuff instead. Over very long periods of time, this seems to have had a net positive effect.

I will say this about battlechips specifically. Anyone claiming that arena battlechips contain evidence of Kabam being greedy knows nothing about mobile game monetization. The arena is an almost broken source for grindable resources that you simply do not find in hardly any F2P mobile games. On a relative basis it is a ludicrous amount of rewards, especially virtual currency (units). I have never played any F2P game mobile or PC where it is extremely easy to grind several hundred dollars of virtual currency by just playing a casual game mode for a couple hours a day max. If Kabam's motives were what some people ascribe to them, arena milestones wouldn't be handing out the gigantic amount of rewards they currently do.

@DNA3000 , you may want to backup the text of your original post up top here, maybe append to your earlier analysis thread (that one only slightly went “off the rails”, as opposed to what this one is turning into).

Or Kabam could just clean this one up.

I did link to the original one in the OP, although maybe that isn't obvious on some viewing platforms. Also, yeah I do tend to save them if they are long enough, so I don't have to retype them if something goes awry later on.

Anything that discusses crystal odds is likely to stray into meta discussion. I try to make sure that discussion is generally civil, so the mods don't have to take corrective action. But it is ultimately their call.

You’re saying he’s wrong because he has no proof but where’s your proof that they aren’t using these patents? The only thing we know for a fact is that Kabam owns these patents. It’s not conspiratorial to suggest that Kabam is using a patent that they own. If a company can legally use a patent that would make them more money, then why the hell wouldn’t they use it? Remember this is the same company that only started showing their drop rates on crystals because the apple store forced them to. Also if you want the newly released characters you need to spend thousands of dollars. What about Kabam suggests they aren’t a company that would use anything at their disposal to make money? Of course, we can’t actually confirm if they’re using it but you can’t just dismiss the possibility because some companies have patents they don’t use. There’s also a lot of companies that do extremely unethical/questionable things so why doesn’t that apply here too?
The fact is, you cannot prove something that isn’t happening. For example, how do you prove that you’re not an alcoholic?

So it’s always assumed innocent until proven guilty.

To be precise, alcoholism (addiction) is a disease that occurs between the Frontal Lobe and the Midbrain Cortex. It has symptoms (increased tolerance, presence of cravings, inability to stop regardless of consequences), so technically you can prove the existence or absence of it.

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