Arena Vs Uncollected Arena

N0_U

So I was wondering what was the better arena crystal for units.

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Fear_of_Clowns2099

Not exactly. Basic is much better for units because you have a higher chance to get units. 5 chances compared to 1 chance. If you do get 225 units from the uncollected, that would be good lol.

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Daddrieda

Doesn’t matter - there are no evidence which is better because it’s RNG for everybody. Some gets better value in uncollected while others in normal ones. Sure there are videos showing 50 of normal crystal and 50 of uncollected crystal, but that kind of evidence is still weak even with data.

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Greekhit

5 chances compared to 1 chance, but for getting x5 the units on average.
Two crystals are almost identical in terms of gold/units per battlechip.
If someone believes the opposite, must revisit high school to get more familiar with basic statistics 😉

DNA3000

In the long run, they are exactly identical for units. The basic is not better for units. What the basic crystal is better for is generating the average results. Because you're opening five times more of smaller reward crystals, the probability is much higher they will average out to numbers closer to the average. Consider the difference between opening one UC arena crystal and five normal arena crystals. Obviously the UC crystal can only drop one thing. There's absolutely no way you're going to get some gold and some units. But this is at least possible with five normal crystals. For larger numbers, the results tend to continue in that direction statistically.

You can get lucky with either crystal, and you can get unlucky with either crystal. But in the long run both crystals generate exactly the same return for gold and units. The UC crystal costs five times as much and drops five times larger rewards. The only difference in terms of actual rewards is the UC crystal doesn't drop fives numbers the number of Punishers when that drops, instead it drops higher rarity (star) Punishers. I consider a 5* Punisher more than five times more valuable than five 4* Punishers and ditto for the 4* vs 3*, so the value of the UC arena crystals is very slightly higher. But in terms of units and gold, identical.

Now, if you need a small amount of units right now, but you almost don't care how many units, then opening basics is better, simply because while the UC crystals will average out in the long run, and you have a chance to get lucky and get way more units, you have a greater chance of temporarily getting a bad luck streak and getting no units.

To put it another way, if you need five units now, open basics. If you want the maximum amount of units over time and you only care about the long term return on investment, you can choose either crystal. in the long run, the UC crystal will generate better returns by a tiny amount because you'll get more 4* Punisher drops which (eventually) generate ISO and gold. That difference is relatively small, but as it is there I only open UC crystals, because why open any crystal that generates a tiny amount less for no reason.

SummonerNR

Not this again (so gonna put a different spin on it)

5 pulls on the Nickel slot machines vs 1 pull on the Quarter slots, but with the rewards payouts on Nickel slots of only 1/5th as much (Units/Gold) as on the Quarter slots, with the same odds of hitting Units/Gold in either case.

So (as for Units/Gold), Regular vs UC Arena crystals are the same.
Only difference is “Jackpot” (version of Punisher champ), and Energy (steps per Battlechip) of the low-odds Energy Refills (but Energy is not why you sat down at the Slot Machines).

Fear_of_Clowns2099

Sorry I screwed up lol. Thanks for the explanation

DNA3000

Doomsfist79

Hey there.. I've made a video about this previously.. but here is my most recent data after recent openings.. you can have a look at my data below..

Data from YT May 2019 to Dec 2020

Hope that helps..

Daddrieda

What I meant more that there are no evidence or any data that shows uncollected is better than the regular one or the regular one is better than uncollected because just like you said in a long run it is the same.

DNA3000

A word of caution. At least some of those videos were submitted after the fact, for example I'm reasonably certain without actually checking them individually that the Prof Hoff videos are submissions. You cannot trust them, because there's an impossible to correct for skew in videos that are submitted after the fact. The only crystal opening data you can trust for statistical analysis is data that was originally streamed, so the player had no opportunity to curate the data.

What I've noticed in the past in curated videos is a higher frequency of exceptional results above or below average than a standard distribution curve would predict. Meaning: people are showing off especially good and especially bad pulls slightly more often than they are showing off average ones.

Doomsfist79

Fair enough.. although the info from the youtube vids I collected falls in line with the info of my own openings.. the 3 prof hoff vids i have listed were all of info sent to him.. and none of them are exceptionally high or low for units compared to any of the others listed.

If you're interested i can send you my discord server and we can compare info in regards to bchips sometime if you want.. seems the two of us have a bit of an obsession with this subject matter