Iceman Cutoff

Bullfighter77Bullfighter77 Member Posts: 68 ★
in General Discussion
What would the estimated cutoff be? I'll try to go for 6.5 mill but i need to know if it should be higher.

Comments

  • RotmgmoddyRotmgmoddy Member Posts: 916 ★★★
    There were quite a few threads on this, and most people have said that his cutoff will not go higher than 7m. So that should be your rough guideline.

    Of course, don't strictly follow that number because sometimes, the unexpected might happen and his cutoff goes way higher than estimated. I suggest you aim higher than 7m to be safe.
  • MarvelbbMarvelbb Member Posts: 3
    7mil
  • OzzziieOzzziie Member Posts: 35 ★
    Come on now, by saying 7 mil, people are going to push it higher than 7 mil which just puts the number needed to get Iceman higher.
  • KhanMedinaKhanMedina Member Posts: 927 ★★★
    If you can't push for 6.5, I wouldn't bother. No t4b or aq going on, and arena event is active.
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Member, Guardian Posts: 19,841 Guardian
    Ozzziie wrote: »
    Come on now, by saying 7 mil, people are going to push it higher than 7 mil which just puts the number needed to get Iceman higher.

    Well then I think it will go for nine million, which will make everyone think the cutoff will push above ten million, so everyone else will give up and I will get him for two million.

    You can't control the behavior of 130,000 arena grinders and 10-13 thousand top grinders in particular by posting random guesses. Most of the people who grind hard for basics and do pay attention to cutoff information study the reddit data themselves and have their own opinions which might get influenced by discussion, but not by much. These people also always aim higher than the expected cutoff because the goal is to win, not to tie the cutoff. The people who grind hard for basics and don't study the cutoff data probably aren't lurking in guess threads either.

    Fact is, when the consensus average guess is wrong, it is generally wrong too high half the time and too low half the time. That basically says that the consensus guesses aren't pushing scores higher.

    Put it this way. I know Iceman is going to be a highly valued basic. I don't know precisely how much, but I have a guess. But my own guess won't influence my grinding. I'm just going to keep grinding until the event is over. When the scores come out, that will tell me how hard I need to grind in round two. Nobody's guesses, not even my own, are going to change my grind unless I get past eight million or something. Until then, I'm not going to take chances since I want him as a 4* (even though I already have him as a 5*, which is the degree to which I think he is useful).
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Member Posts: 36,628 ★★★★★
    DNA3000 wrote: »
    Ozzziie wrote: »
    Come on now, by saying 7 mil, people are going to push it higher than 7 mil which just puts the number needed to get Iceman higher.

    Well then I think it will go for nine million, which will make everyone think the cutoff will push above ten million, so everyone else will give up and I will get him for two million.

    You can't control the behavior of 130,000 arena grinders and 10-13 thousand top grinders in particular by posting random guesses. Most of the people who grind hard for basics and do pay attention to cutoff information study the reddit data themselves and have their own opinions which might get influenced by discussion, but not by much. These people also always aim higher than the expected cutoff because the goal is to win, not to tie the cutoff. The people who grind hard for basics and don't study the cutoff data probably aren't lurking in guess threads either.

    Fact is, when the consensus average guess is wrong, it is generally wrong too high half the time and too low half the time. That basically says that the consensus guesses aren't pushing scores higher.

    Put it this way. I know Iceman is going to be a highly valued basic. I don't know precisely how much, but I have a guess. But my own guess won't influence my grinding. I'm just going to keep grinding until the event is over. When the scores come out, that will tell me how hard I need to grind in round two. Nobody's guesses, not even my own, are going to change my grind unless I get past eight million or something. Until then, I'm not going to take chances since I want him as a 4* (even though I already have him as a 5*, which is the degree to which I think he is useful).

    This is correct. Talking about the cutoff doesn't increase it.
    I would say that my prediction is somewhere around the 6.8-7.1 range. Anything can happen. It will be high is my guess.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Member Posts: 36,628 ★★★★★
    Dropfaith wrote: »
    He's not rare mines Sig 99 that Abomination tho.. I need that guy.

    Funny part no joke here

    Well, people do Grind for collection purposes as well. :)
  • The_OneThe_One Member Posts: 2,936 ★★★★
    I'm going for 7 mil.
    If I miss I'll try second time round when t4b arena and AQ are running.
    I have an awakening gem so I only need to get him once
  • bm3eppsbm3epps Member Posts: 1,166 ★★★
    LiquidButt wrote: »
    2 mil tops. hes one of the worst champs in the game

    lies..lol
  • Nexus_UY_ScutiNexus_UY_Scuti Member Posts: 480 ★★
    Anything more than 10 mil should be safe.
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