Featured drop rates

ReminyReminy Member Posts: 3 ★
in General Discussion
Come on kabam… I opened 19 featured crystal till now and the only featured one I got was shocker… isn’t featured ones supposed to have a drop rate of nearly 25%? Why the drop rates for me is nearly 5%?

Here are the ones I got:
yellowjacket

doctor strange

Symbiote supreme

Shocker

Purgatory

Hela 2

Jane foster 2

Cable 2

super skrull

Red skull

She Hulk

Wolverine 2

Annihillus

Cgr

Task master

Comments

  • ButtehrsButtehrs Member Posts: 7,018 ★★★★★
    It is not 25% that was the old featured styles. All 24 in the featured crystals now have equal drop rates.
  • KingInBlackKingInBlack Member Posts: 327 ★★★
    Bro of the 30 or so I've opened nearly half have been YJ and Strange.
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Member, Guardian Posts: 20,384 Guardian
    Reminy said:

    Come on kabam… I opened 19 featured crystal till now and the only featured one I got was shocker… isn’t featured ones supposed to have a drop rate of nearly 25%? Why the drop rates for me is nearly 5%?

    Because the crystals do not have a drop rate. They have drop odds. The odds are, for any one crystal spin, there's a one in four chance to get a featured champ (because there are six of them out of twenty four options). However, if you miss, the next crystal also has the same 25% chance. And the next, and the next. If you miss seven times in a row, the odds are still only 25% of getting one in the next crystal spin. So it is possible to miss more than 25% of the time. Similarly, it is possible to hit more than 25% of the time. This is how random chance works.

    For the record, in the current crystal I am 6 for 18 or 33% (7 if you count Wolverine). In the previous crystals I was 6 of 33 or 18%, and 22 of 69 or 32%. If you count all three crystals combined I was 34 out of 120 or 28%.

    The margin for error for this sample size is about 6, which means you would expect the actual statistical odds of the crystal to be between 28 out of 120 and 40 out of 120 or between about 23% and 33%, which it happens to be.

    There is actually about a 2.8% chance for someone opening 19 crystals to get just one featured champ. That's not terrible, about one in 37 people will see that. So while that is uncommon, it is not rare either.

    (The odds of all 19 crystals failing to generate a single featured drop is about one in 237. Rare, but not astronomically rare.)
  • ReminyReminy Member Posts: 3 ★
    DNA3000 said:

    Reminy said:

    Come on kabam… I opened 19 featured crystal till now and the only featured one I got was shocker… isn’t featured ones supposed to have a drop rate of nearly 25%? Why the drop rates for me is nearly 5%?

    Because the crystals do not have a drop rate. They have drop odds. The odds are, for any one crystal spin, there's a one in four chance to get a featured champ (because there are six of them out of twenty four options). However, if you miss, the next crystal also has the same 25% chance. And the next, and the next. If you miss seven times in a row, the odds are still only 25% of getting one in the next crystal spin. So it is possible to miss more than 25% of the time. Similarly, it is possible to hit more than 25% of the time. This is how random chance works.

    For the record, in the current crystal I am 6 for 18 or 33% (7 if you count Wolverine). In the previous crystals I was 6 of 33 or 18%, and 22 of 69 or 32%. If you count all three crystals combined I was 34 out of 120 or 28%.

    The margin for error for this sample size is about 6, which means you would expect the actual statistical odds of the crystal to be between 28 out of 120 and 40 out of 120 or between about 23% and 33%, which it happens to be.

    There is actually about a 2.8% chance for someone opening 19 crystals to get just one featured champ. That's not terrible, about one in 37 people will see that. So while that is uncommon, it is not rare either.

    (The odds of all 19 crystals failing to generate a single featured drop is about one in 237. Rare, but not astronomically rare.)
    Thanks for the reply mate! It’s just so frustrating to get basically everyone except the featured ones. I guess it is just what it is….
  • Wu_Bangerz23Wu_Bangerz23 Member Posts: 1,084 ★★★
    Reminy said:

    Come on kabam… I opened 19 featured crystal till now and the only featured one I got was shocker… isn’t featured ones supposed to have a drop rate of nearly 25%? Why the drop rates for me is nearly 5%?

    Here are the ones I got:
    yellowjacket

    doctor strange

    Symbiote supreme

    Shocker

    Purgatory

    Hela 2

    Jane foster 2

    Cable 2

    super skrull

    Red skull

    She Hulk

    Wolverine 2

    Annihillus

    Cgr

    Task master

    I don't ever cry or entertain the conspiracies of MCOC but I've opened 12 of this particular one and have gotten a total of zero new features....is this even possible???
  • SummonerNRSummonerNR Member, Guardian Posts: 13,654 Guardian
    Buttehrs said:

    It is not 25% that was the old featured styles. All 24 in the featured crystals now have equal drop rates.

    Think they mean that with 25% of the pool being “newer Features” the odds of getting at least ANY of the “newer feature” compared to getting one of the other older champs in those 15,000 Feature crystal would be 25%.

    (When there are 6x NEW, and 18x OLD in there).
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Member, Guardian Posts: 20,384 Guardian
    Reminy said:

    DNA3000 said:

    Reminy said:

    Come on kabam… I opened 19 featured crystal till now and the only featured one I got was shocker… isn’t featured ones supposed to have a drop rate of nearly 25%? Why the drop rates for me is nearly 5%?

    Because the crystals do not have a drop rate. They have drop odds. The odds are, for any one crystal spin, there's a one in four chance to get a featured champ (because there are six of them out of twenty four options). However, if you miss, the next crystal also has the same 25% chance. And the next, and the next. If you miss seven times in a row, the odds are still only 25% of getting one in the next crystal spin. So it is possible to miss more than 25% of the time. Similarly, it is possible to hit more than 25% of the time. This is how random chance works.

    For the record, in the current crystal I am 6 for 18 or 33% (7 if you count Wolverine). In the previous crystals I was 6 of 33 or 18%, and 22 of 69 or 32%. If you count all three crystals combined I was 34 out of 120 or 28%.

    The margin for error for this sample size is about 6, which means you would expect the actual statistical odds of the crystal to be between 28 out of 120 and 40 out of 120 or between about 23% and 33%, which it happens to be.

    There is actually about a 2.8% chance for someone opening 19 crystals to get just one featured champ. That's not terrible, about one in 37 people will see that. So while that is uncommon, it is not rare either.

    (The odds of all 19 crystals failing to generate a single featured drop is about one in 237. Rare, but not astronomically rare.)
    Thanks for the reply mate! It’s just so frustrating to get basically everyone except the featured ones. I guess it is just what it is….
    Some people are choosing to count Wolverine as a pseudo featured champ, because he hasn't shown up before. So in this crystal there are seven "first timers" including the new featured champs and Wolvie. You pulled three of these out of 19 crystals, which is 16% of them. Not as good as 25%, but awakening Wolverine is something a lot of people would be happy to get. As a consolation prize, just horseman him and go ham.
  • SirGamesBondSirGamesBond Member Posts: 6,155 ★★★★★

  • captain_rogerscaptain_rogers Member Posts: 11,592 ★★★★★
    DNA3000 said:

    Reminy said:

    Come on kabam… I opened 19 featured crystal till now and the only featured one I got was shocker… isn’t featured ones supposed to have a drop rate of nearly 25%? Why the drop rates for me is nearly 5%?

    Because the crystals do not have a drop rate. They have drop odds. The odds are, for any one crystal spin, there's a one in four chance to get a featured champ (because there are six of them out of twenty four options). However, if you miss, the next crystal also has the same 25% chance. And the next, and the next. If you miss seven times in a row, the odds are still only 25% of getting one in the next crystal spin. So it is possible to miss more than 25% of the time. Similarly, it is possible to hit more than 25% of the time. This is how random chance works.

    For the record, in the current crystal I am 6 for 18 or 33% (7 if you count Wolverine). In the previous crystals I was 6 of 33 or 18%, and 22 of 69 or 32%. If you count all three crystals combined I was 34 out of 120 or 28%.

    The margin for error for this sample size is about 6, which means you would expect the actual statistical odds of the crystal to be between 28 out of 120 and 40 out of 120 or between about 23% and 33%, which it happens to be.

    There is actually about a 2.8% chance for someone opening 19 crystals to get just one featured champ. That's not terrible, about one in 37 people will see that. So while that is uncommon, it is not rare either.

    (The odds of all 19 crystals failing to generate a single featured drop is about one in 237. Rare, but not astronomically rare.)
    Though the probability of independent event does not affect each other.... But when we continuosly repeat the activity,we tend to geore stable results at higher numbers right?
    Example:- 3 heads in a row and 30 heads in a row have similar probability (each time 50%),but it is less likely to get 30 heads in a row as we increase the sample size,the number of heads nd tails tend to become 50/50.This is what i learnt in probability

    So it's natural that OP find it fishy when he/she got only 1 champ out of 19 runs,while the probability is 25%. So what happened to him/her was either terrible luck or kabam changing probabilities in the background. (I gues it's the first one)
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