Any mathematicians in the house?

100%

You didn't have just 80 shots. You had more than that since the pool would adjust. Although since the pool is large enough, this can be expected

P(Not getting Hulk in 8Abyss Nexus crystals)= P(Not getting Hulk in one abyss Nexus Crystal)^8= 0.726 ^8= 0.086

≈ 8.6%. . Not too shabby tbh

GroundedWisdom

@DNA3000

Skydad23

You didn't have just 80 shots. You had more than that since the pool would adjust. Although since the pool is large enough, this can be expected

P(Not getting Hulk in 8Abyss Nexus crystals)= P(Not getting Hulk in one abyss Nexus Crystal)^8= 0.726 ^8= 0.086

≈ 8.6%. . Not too shabby tbh

Are you saying I had an 8% chance to get him or not to get him?

There are 38 science champions in the crystal you get 10 shots in each crystal that’s more than a 25% chance in each crystal and when you stack on the odds that the one I would not get is the one of the 38 I did not have having all 37 others percentage seems astronomical to not get that one?

MarvelNoob

This is what I think (Just a highschooler).
1/38 chance each attempt, 80 attempts.
1/38 ≈ 2.6%. (Each attempt)
2.6%(.0026) x 80 ≈ 2.1(210%)

So you had a 210% chance of getting your one champ, but you didn't. Thats if every champ had an equal chance of dropping and it's an average. So this is an outlier right? Sorry I'm trying my best with this math.

You didn't have just 80 shots. You had more than that since the pool would adjust. Although since the pool is large enough, this can be expected

P(Not getting Hulk in 8Abyss Nexus crystals)= P(Not getting Hulk in one abyss Nexus Crystal)^8= 0.726 ^8= 0.086

≈ 8.6%. . Not too shabby tbh
Are you saying I had an 8% chance to get him or not to get him?

There are 38 science champions in the crystal you get 10 shots in each crystal that’s more than a 25% chance in each crystal and when you stack on the odds that the one I would not get is the one of the 38 I did not have having all 37 others percentage seems astronomical to not get that one?

You actually have a 1/38 + 1/37 + ... + 1/29 chance of getting hulk per abyss nexus which comes out to 29% chance per nexus.

danielmath

This is what I think (Just a highschooler).
1/38 chance each attempt, 80 attempts.
1/38 ≈ 2.6%. (Each attempt)
2.6%(.0026) x 80 ≈ 2.1(210%)

So you had a 210% chance of getting your one champ, but you didn't. Thats if every champ had an equal chance of dropping and it's an average. So this is an outlier right? Sorry I'm trying my best with this math.

Not how math works…

This is what I think (Just a highschooler).
1/38 chance each attempt, 80 attempts.
1/38 ≈ 2.6%. (Each attempt)
2.6%(.0026) x 80 ≈ 2.1(210%)

So you had a 210% chance of getting your one champ, but you didn't. Thats if every champ had an equal chance of dropping and it's an average. So this is an outlier right? Sorry I'm trying my best with this math.

You have a 29% chance per nexus. See my previous post on how you get that. Then to find the chance of it not happening after 8 independent events, you do (1-.29)^8 which is a little more than 6%

What you did wrong was had 1/38 over 80 attempts, when it is 1/38 over a decreasing pool size, over 8 tries.

I am a mathematician. I did not see the correct answer yet, so:

For 1 crystal the chance that you do not get him is: 37/38 * 36/38 * ... * 28/38 which is roughly 0.2013 (20.13% chance).

For 8 crystals it is: 0.2013^8 = 0.000002696 (which is 0.00027%) that is extremely low chance.

Just to point out the 29% theory is not that bad, the problem is that those odds are not independent, you would need to have used inclusion-exclusion principle if you calculate the odds of pulling him instead of the odds of not pulling him.

See when you say 1/38 + 1/37 + ... you ignore the fact that it is impossible to pull him more times in 1 crystal (also production must be used instead of addition)

Just to point out the 29% theory is not that bad, the problem is that those odds are not independent, you would need to have used inclusion-exclusion principle if you calculate the odds of pulling him instead of the odds of not pulling him.

See when you say 1/38 + 1/37 + ... you ignore the fact that it is impossible to pull him more times in 1 crystal (also production must be used instead of addition)

Fair enough, haven't taken stats in 5 years and forget some of these things 🤣

Chris_Summers

Kabam rng… 0% chance of getting the one you want.

EVER.

You didn't have just 80 shots. You had more than that since the pool would adjust. Although since the pool is large enough, this can be expected

P(Not getting Hulk in 8Abyss Nexus crystals)= P(Not getting Hulk in one abyss Nexus Crystal)^8= 0.726 ^8= 0.086

≈ 8.6%. . Not too shabby tbh
Are you saying I had an 8% chance to get him or not to get him?

There are 38 science champions in the crystal you get 10 shots in each crystal that’s more than a 25% chance in each crystal and when you stack on the odds that the one I would not get is the one of the 38 I did not have having all 37 others percentage seems astronomical to not get that one?

You had an 8.6% chance of not getting Hulk at all

I am a mathematician. I did not see the correct answer yet, so:

For 1 crystal the chance that you do not get him is: 37/38 * 36/38 * ... * 28/38 which is roughly 0.2013 (20.13% chance).

For 8 crystals it is: 0.2013^8 = 0.000002696 (which is 0.00027%) that is extremely low chance.

Why have you kept the denominator as 38 itself? If the numerator is decreasing, surely the denominator should too?

Why have you kept the denominator as 38 itself? If the numerator is decreasing, surely the denominator should too?

Yupp, you are totally right my bad. Also now that I think of it, my answer is totally incorrect

(because the 'order' of the 10 does not matter)

So to correct myself, this is how to calc it, exactly as you have said before:

I will use the notation (n k) for n choose k (which is n! / (k! * (n-k)!) )
- For 1 crystal the chance you don't get him is: (37 10) / (38 10) = 0.7368 (73.68%)
- For 8 crystals it is: 0.7368^8 = 0.0869 (8.69%)

P.S. I'll think about myself now...

I_tell_no_tales_1

You didn't have just 80 shots. You had more than that since the pool would adjust. Although since the pool is large enough, this can be expected

P(Not getting Hulk in 8Abyss Nexus crystals)= P(Not getting Hulk in one abyss Nexus Crystal)^8= 0.726 ^8= 0.086

≈ 8.6%. . Not too shabby tbh
Are you saying I had an 8% chance to get him or not to get him?

There are 38 science champions in the crystal you get 10 shots in each crystal that’s more than a 25% chance in each crystal and when you stack on the odds that the one I would not get is the one of the 38 I did not have having all 37 others percentage seems astronomical to not get that one?

You actually have a 1/38 + 1/37 + ... + 1/29 chance of getting hulk per abyss nexus which comes out to 29% chance per nexus.

That's not how it works for crystals
Otherwise people wouldn't have had to open 30-40 crystals and then still come to forums to complain about not getting
the champion they desire

It's 1/38 for each crystal
So he just had 2.6 % chance of getting hulk in each crystal
And he will have 2.6% chance of getting hulk in each crystal even if he opens 100 abyss nexus

But still it's quite sad that you couldn't get him
I really love playing my r2 hulk in BGs
But give me that 6* Juggs Kabam

Skydad23

You didn't have just 80 shots. You had more than that since the pool would adjust. Although since the pool is large enough, this can be expected

P(Not getting Hulk in 8Abyss Nexus crystals)= P(Not getting Hulk in one abyss Nexus Crystal)^8= 0.726 ^8= 0.086

≈ 8.6%. . Not too shabby tbh
Are you saying I had an 8% chance to get him or not to get him?

There are 38 science champions in the crystal you get 10 shots in each crystal that’s more than a 25% chance in each crystal and when you stack on the odds that the one I would not get is the one of the 38 I did not have having all 37 others percentage seems astronomical to not get that one?

You actually have a 1/38 + 1/37 + ... + 1/29 chance of getting hulk per abyss nexus which comes out to 29% chance per nexus.
That's not how it works for crystals
Otherwise people wouldn't have had to open 30-40 crystals and then still come to forums to complain about not getting
the champion they desire

It's 1/38 for each crystal
So he just had 2.6 % chance of getting hulk in each crystal
And he will have 2.6% chance of getting hulk in each crystal even if he opens 100 abyss nexus

But still it's quite sad that you couldn't get him
I really love playing my r2 hulk in BGs
But give me that 6* Juggs Kabam

You’re forgetting the very important part that the one and 38 you’re choosing one of 10 getting a choice of 10 changes, if there is 40 of some thing and you open a box and there are 10 of that 40 in there with no duplicates and you get to pick one of the 10 that is 25% figuring this is one and 38 choosing one out of 10 the odds of each crystal is higher than 25%

That's not how it works for crystals
Otherwise people wouldn't have had to open 30-40 crystals and then still come to forums to complain about not getting
the champion they desire

It's 1/38 for each crystal
So he just had 2.6 % chance of getting hulk in each crystal
And he will have 2.6% chance of getting hulk in each crystal even if he opens 100 abyss nexus

But still it's quite sad that you couldn't get him
I really love playing my r2 hulk in BGs
But give me that 6* Juggs Kabam

By your logic if science class would only consist of 10 champs, you only had 1/10 chance of pulling your desired one with an abyss.

SummonerNR

That's not how it works for crystals
Otherwise people wouldn't have had to open 30-40 crystals and then still come to forums to complain about not getting
the champion they desire

It's 1/38 for each crystal
So he just had 2.6 % chance of getting hulk in each crystal
And he will have 2.6% chance of getting hulk in each crystal even if he opens 100 abyss nexus

But still it's quite sad that you couldn't get him
I really love playing my r2 hulk in BGs
But give me that 6* Juggs Kabam

You’re thinking of it as normal 1-champ crystals.
It is a 10-CHOICE NEXUS.
The potentials of all of the 10 choices of the Nexus (like the 3-choice Nexus's) are dependent on each other in that you will not be given the same champ for multiple of the 10 choices.

So calculate that first (which is what the 38 and 10x calculations are first doing), and THEN proceed to do the (as you say) independent relation for the 8 of those such Nexus's.

SummonerNR

If the consensus from prior replies is such as…
(and just to further explain it in more understandable terms)..

Odds of NOT getting in SLOT #1 of 10 choices of Nexus is 37/38
And then of NOT getting in SLOT #2 is 36/37
Etc, down to final SLOT being 28/29.

Numerators going from 37, 36, 35 .. 28
Denominators going from 38, 37, 36 .. 29
Odds for Not getting for that particular Nexus boils down to (9 of the 10 numbers are same in Numer. and Denom.) 28/38.
Which is 0.7368.. (73.68 chance of NOT getting in a single 10-choice Nexus)

Then take that, as correctly said before, as an “8 factorial” (8 Nexus crystals).
To become 0.0869 (8.7% chance you will NOT get him).

Is that right ?

( @AverageDesi , where was your original 0.726 coming from, instead of 0.7368 above. Or just typo between switching apps doing calculations ??)

klobberintyme

Kabam rng… 0% chance of getting the one you want.

EVER.

She's the one that i wanted.

Woo oo ooo, baby