Paragon and Paragon Featured “Drop Rates”

EliOrSomething

These drop rates are not accurate… thats the post. Can’t tell you how many videos I’ve seen of people opening stupid amounts of these crystals and getting completely shafted. I’m not even talking getting or missing the featured champs I’m purely talking about star rarity. According to the drop rates, we should be getting a 6 star about every or 9 crystals of the featureds, a bit lower on the regular paragons (not even taking into account your minuscule chance at a 7 star). I’ve lost count of how many times I’ve popped open crystals to be greeted by a stack of 4 and 5 stars. There is no light at the end of the tunnel. 12% my heinie.

Zuro

Answer: RNG

Demonzfyre

EliOrSomething said:

These drop rates are not accurate… thats the post. Can’t tell you how many videos I’ve seen of people opening stupid amounts of these crystals and getting completely shafted. I’m not even talking getting or missing the featured champs I’m purely talking about star rarity. According to the drop rates, we should be getting a 6 star about every or 9 crystals of the featureds, a bit lower on the regular paragons (not even taking into account your minuscule chance at a 7 star). I’ve lost count of how many times I’ve popped open crystals to be greeted by a stack of 4 and 5 stars. There is no light at the end of the tunnel. 12% my heinie.

Each crystal has independent drop rates and are not cumulative. Everything you said is wrong.

Licky

EliOrSomething said:

These drop rates are not accurate… thats the post. Can’t tell you how many videos I’ve seen of people opening stupid amounts of these crystals and getting completely shafted. I’m not even talking getting or missing the featured champs I’m purely talking about star rarity. According to the drop rates, we should be getting a 6 star about every or 9 crystals of the featureds, a bit lower on the regular paragons (not even taking into account your minuscule chance at a 7 star). I’ve lost count of how many times I’ve popped open crystals to be greeted by a stack of 4 and 5 stars. There is no light at the end of the tunnel. 12% my heinie.

Well I got 2 7 stars from 5 normal paragon crystals so can't complain

SecondSkriller

Demonzfyre said:

EliOrSomething said:

These drop rates are not accurate… thats the post. Can’t tell you how many videos I’ve seen of people opening stupid amounts of these crystals and getting completely shafted. I’m not even talking getting or missing the featured champs I’m purely talking about star rarity. According to the drop rates, we should be getting a 6 star about every or 9 crystals of the featureds, a bit lower on the regular paragons (not even taking into account your minuscule chance at a 7 star). I’ve lost count of how many times I’ve popped open crystals to be greeted by a stack of 4 and 5 stars. There is no light at the end of the tunnel. 12% my heinie.

Each crystal has independent drop rates and are not cumulative. Everything you said is wrong.

Same how each coin toss has an independent chance, but I’ve rolled heads 20 times in a row. What’s the chance of that happening, since I got 20 4 stars in a row 🤷‍♂️

Colinwhitworth69

LOL. They should require players take a course on probability before allowing them to post of the forums.

There are MANY good posts explaining it that you can find via search. Do your homework before starting a post about something you clearly misunderstand.

MrSakuragi

As others have said, independent probabilities. The paragon crystals are no more “broken” than this roulette wheel.

Demonzfyre

SecondSkriller said:

Demonzfyre said:

EliOrSomething said:

These drop rates are not accurate… thats the post. Can’t tell you how many videos I’ve seen of people opening stupid amounts of these crystals and getting completely shafted. I’m not even talking getting or missing the featured champs I’m purely talking about star rarity. According to the drop rates, we should be getting a 6 star about every or 9 crystals of the featureds, a bit lower on the regular paragons (not even taking into account your minuscule chance at a 7 star). I’ve lost count of how many times I’ve popped open crystals to be greeted by a stack of 4 and 5 stars. There is no light at the end of the tunnel. 12% my heinie.

Each crystal has independent drop rates and are not cumulative. Everything you said is wrong.

Same how each coin toss has an independent chance, but I’ve rolled heads 20 times in a row. What’s the chance of that happening, since I got 20 4 stars in a row 🤷‍♂️

The chance of that happening is high because 4*'s have the highest drop rate. Your confirmation bias is getting in the way of your logical thinking.

Demonzfyre

People on complain about drop rates when they don't get what they want.

BeastDad

100% accurate post.

Phantomfire500

And I'm sure you've taken a very large sample of thousands of these crystals and noted a statistically significant difference between the expected mean and the actual mean for the higher rarity champs.

If you'd have come here and claimed the odds that legally have to be correct are actually lies based purely on your anecdotal analysis of a few hundred crystals being opened, you'd look like a fool to anyone with basic critical thinking skills.

ahmynuts

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_number_generation

Demonzfyre

BeastDad said:

100% accurate post.

No. I still don't know why you even play this game and come to the forums.

DrZola

If you’ve actually pulled 20 4* in a row (I’m sure feels like that often, but it’s truly unlikely), then yes—I would say pRNG is somehow off. Odds of that type of 20 result string if 4* is a 50% pull are extremely low.

But I doubt the accuracy of your claim if 20 consecutive 4*. Now, if you’ve pulled 20 crystals without pulling a single 6/7*, you’ve got about a 15% chance of that string of pulls happening. Anyone who’s played this game more than a day knows 15% in MCoC is high probability—just consider OGBW 7% evade chance.

Dr. Zola

BeastDad

Demonzfyre said:

BeastDad said:

100% accurate post.

No. I still don't know why you even play this game and come to the forums.

Ironic, I could say the same about you.

DRTO

Another day, another "I don't understand RNG and drop rates so I'll just say it's rigged" post

ReignkingTW

I've had 3 from whatever we've gotten free -- 40-60?

haha.

Demonzfyre

BeastDad said:

Demonzfyre said:

BeastDad said:

100% accurate post.

No. I still don't know why you even play this game and come to the forums.

Ironic, I could say the same about you.

I actually like the game. You do nothing but complain, about everything.

Thi101

SecondSkriller said:

Demonzfyre said:

EliOrSomething said:

These drop rates are not accurate… thats the post. Can’t tell you how many videos I’ve seen of people opening stupid amounts of these crystals and getting completely shafted. I’m not even talking getting or missing the featured champs I’m purely talking about star rarity. According to the drop rates, we should be getting a 6 star about every or 9 crystals of the featureds, a bit lower on the regular paragons (not even taking into account your minuscule chance at a 7 star). I’ve lost count of how many times I’ve popped open crystals to be greeted by a stack of 4 and 5 stars. There is no light at the end of the tunnel. 12% my heinie.

Each crystal has independent drop rates and are not cumulative. Everything you said is wrong.

Same how each coin toss has an independent chance, but I’ve rolled heads 20 times in a row. What’s the chance of that happening, since I got 20 4 stars in a row 🤷‍♂️

This is a terrible analogy
Rolling heads 20 times in a row has the exact same chance of rolling whatever combination of heads and tails 20 times.

Getting 4* is the likely outcome for a paragon crystal, given the %. Opening that many is not that big of a stretch

BeastDad

Demonzfyre said:

BeastDad said:

Demonzfyre said:

BeastDad said:

100% accurate post.

No. I still don't know why you even play this game and come to the forums.

Ironic, I could say the same about you.

I actually like the game. You do nothing but complain, about everything.

Am I required to like every single aspect of the game? Not allowed to call out suspect stuff? Please explain to me the rules, I am clearly falling behind.

48k disagrees cannot all be wrong.

Colinwhitworth69

BeastDad said:

Demonzfyre said:

BeastDad said:

Demonzfyre said:

BeastDad said:

100% accurate post.

No. I still don't know why you even play this game and come to the forums.

Ironic, I could say the same about you.

I actually like the game. You do nothing but complain, about everything.

Am I required to like every single aspect of the game? Not allowed to call out suspect stuff? Please explain to me the rules, I am clearly falling behind.

48k disagrees cannot all be wrong.

You understand that a disagree represents an opinion, not proof of anything, right?

You claim this post is 100 percent accurate, but your "proof" are posts by people complaining the crystals are rigged, when those people's proof is "it's obvious".

This is a disaster in critical thinking.

ahmynuts

Colinwhitworth69 said:

BeastDad said:

Demonzfyre said:

BeastDad said:

Demonzfyre said:

BeastDad said:

100% accurate post.

No. I still don't know why you even play this game and come to the forums.

Ironic, I could say the same about you.

I actually like the game. You do nothing but complain, about everything.

Am I required to like every single aspect of the game? Not allowed to call out suspect stuff? Please explain to me the rules, I am clearly falling behind.

48k disagrees cannot all be wrong.

You understand that a disagree represents an opinion, not proof of anything, right?

You claim this post is 100 percent accurate, but your "proof" are posts by people complaining the crystals are rigged, when those people's proof is "it's obvious".

This is a disaster in critical thinking.

The MCOC forum is not a place known for its user's critical thinking ability

BeastDad

Colinwhitworth69 said:

BeastDad said:

Demonzfyre said:

BeastDad said:

Demonzfyre said:

BeastDad said:

100% accurate post.

No. I still don't know why you even play this game and come to the forums.

Ironic, I could say the same about you.

I actually like the game. You do nothing but complain, about everything.

Am I required to like every single aspect of the game? Not allowed to call out suspect stuff? Please explain to me the rules, I am clearly falling behind.

48k disagrees cannot all be wrong.

You understand that a disagree represents an opinion, not proof of anything, right?

You claim this post is 100 percent accurate, but your "proof" are posts by people complaining the crystals are rigged, when those people's proof is "it's obvious".

This is a disaster in critical thinking.

His "opinion" was that I am somehow do not like the game, which couldn't be further from the truth.

Just figured one opinion deserved another.

Buttehrs

BeastDad said:

Demonzfyre said:

BeastDad said:

Demonzfyre said:

BeastDad said:

100% accurate post.

No. I still don't know why you even play this game and come to the forums.

Ironic, I could say the same about you.

I actually like the game. You do nothing but complain, about everything.

Am I required to like every single aspect of the game? Not allowed to call out suspect stuff? Please explain to me the rules, I am clearly falling behind.

48k disagrees cannot all be wrong.

Your certainly allowed to not like what you don't like about the game, but complaining about "rigged " crystals isn't one of them. It's a gacha game. And all gacha are the same unless they include a penalty system. Maybe you just need to study up on RNG some more.

EliOrSomething

People can hate on my opinion all they want but I have yet to see any physical proof that the rates are correct. However what I have seen is people who have opened well over 100 crystals total and have yet to get a 6 star from them. Probability says that that will happen sometimes but I personally believe it’s a lot more often than it should be and we’re led to believe we have a higher chance than we actually do at getting anything decent.

Omega_Runner

I dislike most in this game is "RNG"

JollyHawk

EliOrSomething said:

People can hate on my opinion all they want but I have yet to see any physical proof that the rates are correct. However what I have seen is people who have opened well over 100 crystals total and have yet to get a 6 star from them. Probability says that that will happen sometimes but I personally believe it’s a lot more often than it should be and we’re led to believe we have a higher chance than we actually do at getting anything decent.

What type of "physical" proof are you looking for?

Pikolu

EliOrSomething said:

People can hate on my opinion all they want but I have yet to see any physical proof that the rates are correct. However what I have seen is people who have opened well over 100 crystals total and have yet to get a 6 star from them. Probability says that that will happen sometimes but I personally believe it’s a lot more often than it should be and we’re led to believe we have a higher chance than we actually do at getting anything decent.

The physical proof is kabam is required by law to show the correct drop rates. Why on earth would kabam risk a huge lawsuit over something so insignificant?

Buttehrs

EliOrSomething said:

People can hate on my opinion all they want but I have yet to see any physical proof that the rates are correct. However what I have seen is people who have opened well over 100 crystals total and have yet to get a 6 star from them. Probability says that that will happen sometimes but I personally believe it’s a lot more often than it should be and we’re led to believe we have a higher chance than we actually do at getting anything decent.

You want physical proof? Fine, I opened 3 from the summer calendar today and pulled 1 6* a dupe on cap Sam wilson.

DNA3000

EliOrSomething said:

People can hate on my opinion all they want but I have yet to see any physical proof that the rates are correct. However what I have seen is people who have opened well over 100 crystals total and have yet to get a 6 star from them. Probability says that that will happen sometimes but I personally believe it’s a lot more often than it should be and we’re led to believe we have a higher chance than we actually do at getting anything decent.

You won’t ever see “physical proof” the posted rates are accurate because there’s no such thing. All anyone can do is determine the statistical likelihood that the observed rates fall within the statistically reasonable range predicted if the posted drop rates were accurate, and to the best of my knowledge no one has posted credible evidence of the crystal odds not being accurate, outside of some confirmed errors in some crystals in the past (I.e. crystals acknowledged to erroneously not contain certain champions).

To within the statistical margin of error, I’ve never seen results inconsistent with the published drop odds when careful documented testing was performed. I also know of no one who has done more extensive independent testing of crystals than I have.

ahmynuts

EliOrSomething said:

People can hate on my opinion all they want but I have yet to see any physical proof that the rates are correct. However what I have seen is people who have opened well over 100 crystals total and have yet to get a 6 star from them. Probability says that that will happen sometimes but I personally believe it’s a lot more often than it should be and we’re led to believe we have a higher chance than we actually do at getting anything decent.

It is a legal requirement for Kabam to post the correct rates of lootboxes. They couldn't falsify them even if they wanted to