**UPDATE - iPAD STUCK FLICKERING SCREEN**
The 47.0.1 hotfix to address the issue of freezing & flashing lights on loading screens when trying to enter a fight, along with other smaller issues, is now ready to be downloaded through the App Store on IOS.
More information here.

Paragon and Paragon Featured “Drop Rates”

EliOrSomethingEliOrSomething Member Posts: 115 ★★
edited August 2023 in General Discussion
These drop rates are not accurate… thats the post. Can’t tell you how many videos I’ve seen of people opening stupid amounts of these crystals and getting completely shafted. I’m not even talking getting or missing the featured champs I’m purely talking about star rarity. According to the drop rates, we should be getting a 6 star about every or 9 crystals of the featureds, a bit lower on the regular paragons (not even taking into account your minuscule chance at a 7 star). I’ve lost count of how many times I’ve popped open crystals to be greeted by a stack of 4 and 5 stars. There is no light at the end of the tunnel. 12% my heinie.
Post edited by Kabam Miike on
«1

Comments

  • LickyLicky Member Posts: 331 ★★★

    These drop rates are not accurate… thats the post. Can’t tell you how many videos I’ve seen of people opening stupid amounts of these crystals and getting completely shafted. I’m not even talking getting or missing the featured champs I’m purely talking about star rarity. According to the drop rates, we should be getting a 6 star about every or 9 crystals of the featureds, a bit lower on the regular paragons (not even taking into account your minuscule chance at a 7 star). I’ve lost count of how many times I’ve popped open crystals to be greeted by a stack of 4 and 5 stars. There is no light at the end of the tunnel. 12% my heinie.

    Well I got 2 7 stars from 5 normal paragon crystals so can't complain
  • Colinwhitworth69Colinwhitworth69 Member Posts: 7,438 ★★★★★
    LOL. They should require players take a course on probability before allowing them to post of the forums.

    There are MANY good posts explaining it that you can find via search. Do your homework before starting a post about something you clearly misunderstand.
  • MrSakuragiMrSakuragi Member Posts: 4,963 ★★★★★
    As others have said, independent probabilities. The paragon crystals are no more “broken” than this roulette wheel.


  • DemonzfyreDemonzfyre Member Posts: 21,848 ★★★★★

    These drop rates are not accurate… thats the post. Can’t tell you how many videos I’ve seen of people opening stupid amounts of these crystals and getting completely shafted. I’m not even talking getting or missing the featured champs I’m purely talking about star rarity. According to the drop rates, we should be getting a 6 star about every or 9 crystals of the featureds, a bit lower on the regular paragons (not even taking into account your minuscule chance at a 7 star). I’ve lost count of how many times I’ve popped open crystals to be greeted by a stack of 4 and 5 stars. There is no light at the end of the tunnel. 12% my heinie.

    Each crystal has independent drop rates and are not cumulative. Everything you said is wrong.
    Same how each coin toss has an independent chance, but I’ve rolled heads 20 times in a row. What’s the chance of that happening, since I got 20 4 stars in a row 🤷‍♂️
    The chance of that happening is high because 4*'s have the highest drop rate. Your confirmation bias is getting in the way of your logical thinking.
  • BeastDadBeastDad Member Posts: 1,813 ★★★★★
    100% accurate post.
  • Phantomfire500Phantomfire500 Member Posts: 232 ★★
    And I'm sure you've taken a very large sample of thousands of these crystals and noted a statistically significant difference between the expected mean and the actual mean for the higher rarity champs.

    If you'd have come here and claimed the odds that legally have to be correct are actually lies based purely on your anecdotal analysis of a few hundred crystals being opened, you'd look like a fool to anyone with basic critical thinking skills.
  • DrZolaDrZola Member Posts: 8,988 ★★★★★
    If you’ve actually pulled 20 4* in a row (I’m sure feels like that often, but it’s truly unlikely), then yes—I would say pRNG is somehow off. Odds of that type of 20 result string if 4* is a 50% pull are extremely low.

    But I doubt the accuracy of your claim if 20 consecutive 4*. Now, if you’ve pulled 20 crystals without pulling a single 6/7*, you’ve got about a 15% chance of that string of pulls happening. Anyone who’s played this game more than a day knows 15% in MCoC is high probability—just consider OGBW 7% evade chance.

    Dr. Zola
  • BeastDadBeastDad Member Posts: 1,813 ★★★★★

    BeastDad said:

    100% accurate post.

    No. I still don't know why you even play this game and come to the forums.
    Ironic, I could say the same about you.
  • DRTODRTO Member Posts: 1,654 ★★★★★
    Another day, another "I don't understand RNG and drop rates so I'll just say it's rigged" post
  • ReignkingTWReignkingTW Member Posts: 2,774 ★★★★★
    I've had 3 from whatever we've gotten free -- 40-60?

    haha.
  • Thi101Thi101 Member Posts: 807 ★★★

    These drop rates are not accurate… thats the post. Can’t tell you how many videos I’ve seen of people opening stupid amounts of these crystals and getting completely shafted. I’m not even talking getting or missing the featured champs I’m purely talking about star rarity. According to the drop rates, we should be getting a 6 star about every or 9 crystals of the featureds, a bit lower on the regular paragons (not even taking into account your minuscule chance at a 7 star). I’ve lost count of how many times I’ve popped open crystals to be greeted by a stack of 4 and 5 stars. There is no light at the end of the tunnel. 12% my heinie.

    Each crystal has independent drop rates and are not cumulative. Everything you said is wrong.
    Same how each coin toss has an independent chance, but I’ve rolled heads 20 times in a row. What’s the chance of that happening, since I got 20 4 stars in a row 🤷‍♂️
    This is a terrible analogy
    Rolling heads 20 times in a row has the exact same chance of rolling whatever combination of heads and tails 20 times.

    Getting 4* is the likely outcome for a paragon crystal, given the %. Opening that many is not that big of a stretch
  • BeastDadBeastDad Member Posts: 1,813 ★★★★★

    BeastDad said:

    BeastDad said:

    100% accurate post.

    No. I still don't know why you even play this game and come to the forums.
    Ironic, I could say the same about you.
    I actually like the game. You do nothing but complain, about everything.
    Am I required to like every single aspect of the game? Not allowed to call out suspect stuff? Please explain to me the rules, I am clearly falling behind.

    48k disagrees cannot all be wrong.
  • BeastDadBeastDad Member Posts: 1,813 ★★★★★

    BeastDad said:

    BeastDad said:

    BeastDad said:

    100% accurate post.

    No. I still don't know why you even play this game and come to the forums.
    Ironic, I could say the same about you.
    I actually like the game. You do nothing but complain, about everything.
    Am I required to like every single aspect of the game? Not allowed to call out suspect stuff? Please explain to me the rules, I am clearly falling behind.

    48k disagrees cannot all be wrong.
    You understand that a disagree represents an opinion, not proof of anything, right?

    You claim this post is 100 percent accurate, but your "proof" are posts by people complaining the crystals are rigged, when those people's proof is "it's obvious".

    This is a disaster in critical thinking.

    His "opinion" was that I am somehow do not like the game, which couldn't be further from the truth.

    Just figured one opinion deserved another.
  • EliOrSomethingEliOrSomething Member Posts: 115 ★★
    People can hate on my opinion all they want but I have yet to see any physical proof that the rates are correct. However what I have seen is people who have opened well over 100 crystals total and have yet to get a 6 star from them. Probability says that that will happen sometimes but I personally believe it’s a lot more often than it should be and we’re led to believe we have a higher chance than we actually do at getting anything decent.
  • Omega_RunnerOmega_Runner Member Posts: 143 ★★
    I dislike most in this game is "RNG"
  • JollyHawkJollyHawk Member Posts: 605 ★★★

    People can hate on my opinion all they want but I have yet to see any physical proof that the rates are correct. However what I have seen is people who have opened well over 100 crystals total and have yet to get a 6 star from them. Probability says that that will happen sometimes but I personally believe it’s a lot more often than it should be and we’re led to believe we have a higher chance than we actually do at getting anything decent.

    What type of "physical" proof are you looking for?
  • PikoluPikolu Member, Guardian Posts: 7,464 Guardian
    edited August 2023

    People can hate on my opinion all they want but I have yet to see any physical proof that the rates are correct. However what I have seen is people who have opened well over 100 crystals total and have yet to get a 6 star from them. Probability says that that will happen sometimes but I personally believe it’s a lot more often than it should be and we’re led to believe we have a higher chance than we actually do at getting anything decent.

    The physical proof is kabam is required by law to show the correct drop rates. Why on earth would kabam risk a huge lawsuit over something so insignificant?
  • ButtehrsButtehrs Member Posts: 5,687 ★★★★★

    People can hate on my opinion all they want but I have yet to see any physical proof that the rates are correct. However what I have seen is people who have opened well over 100 crystals total and have yet to get a 6 star from them. Probability says that that will happen sometimes but I personally believe it’s a lot more often than it should be and we’re led to believe we have a higher chance than we actually do at getting anything decent.

    You want physical proof? Fine, I opened 3 from the summer calendar today and pulled 1 6* a dupe on cap Sam wilson.
  • ahmynutsahmynuts Member Posts: 7,339 ★★★★★

    People can hate on my opinion all they want but I have yet to see any physical proof that the rates are correct. However what I have seen is people who have opened well over 100 crystals total and have yet to get a 6 star from them. Probability says that that will happen sometimes but I personally believe it’s a lot more often than it should be and we’re led to believe we have a higher chance than we actually do at getting anything decent.

    It is a legal requirement for Kabam to post the correct rates of lootboxes. They couldn't falsify them even if they wanted to
This discussion has been closed.