Paragon and Paragon Featured “Drop Rates”

These drop rates are not accurate… thats the post. Can’t tell you how many videos I’ve seen of people opening stupid amounts of these crystals and getting completely shafted. I’m not even talking getting or missing the featured champs I’m purely talking about star rarity. According to the drop rates, we should be getting a 6 star about every or 9 crystals of the featureds, a bit lower on the regular paragons (not even taking into account your minuscule chance at a 7 star). I’ve lost count of how many times I’ve popped open crystals to be greeted by a stack of 4 and 5 stars. There is no light at the end of the tunnel. 12% my heinie.

Comments

DNA3000

These drop rates are not accurate… thats the post. Can’t tell you how many videos I’ve seen of people opening stupid amounts of these crystals and getting completely shafted. I’m not even talking getting or missing the featured champs I’m purely talking about star rarity. According to the drop rates, we should be getting a 6 star about every or 9 crystals of the featureds, a bit lower on the regular paragons (not even taking into account your minuscule chance at a 7 star). I’ve lost count of how many times I’ve popped open crystals to be greeted by a stack of 4 and 5 stars. There is no light at the end of the tunnel. 12% my heinie.
Each crystal has independent drop rates and are not cumulative. Everything you said is wrong.
Same how each coin toss has an independent chance, but I’ve rolled heads 20 times in a row. What’s the chance of that happening, since I got 20 4 stars in a row 🤷‍♂️

One in a million, if that actually happened. However, this gets more complicated if you ask the meta question: what are the odds of a player seeing this? There are thousands of players collectively opening millions of crystals. The odds of someone somewhere seeing this happen start adding up fast. My guesstimate (I’m not in a position to calculate the odds directly at the moment, I’m about to board a flight), is this happens on average in one out of every 2.5 million paragon crystal openings, which is maybe once every few months to someone somewhere.

More likely: someone is misremembering.

GroundedWisdom

People can hate on my opinion all they want but I have yet to see any physical proof that the rates are correct. However what I have seen is people who have opened well over 100 crystals total and have yet to get a 6 star from them. Probability says that that will happen sometimes but I personally believe it’s a lot more often than it should be and we’re led to believe we have a higher chance than we actually do at getting anything decent.
It is a legal requirement for Kabam to post the correct rates of lootboxes. They couldn't falsify them even if they wanted to

I mean, technically they COULD, but they wouldn't break their contracts and create issues for their legal team. That would be career suicide.

OP, you have an 88% chance of it not falling within that 12%. That's a vast margin. It's also not a large enough sample size to determine they're not operating as stated.

Demonzfyre

People can hate on my opinion all they want but I have yet to see any physical proof that the rates are correct. However what I have seen is people who have opened well over 100 crystals total and have yet to get a 6 star from them. Probability says that that will happen sometimes but I personally believe it’s a lot more often than it should be and we’re led to believe we have a higher chance than we actually do at getting anything decent.

What you believe and have a "gut" feeling about, doesn't apply to RNG. You're just going to have to accept it and move on.

DNA3000

People can hate on my opinion all they want but I have yet to see any physical proof that the rates are correct. However what I have seen is people who have opened well over 100 crystals total and have yet to get a 6 star from them. Probability says that that will happen sometimes but I personally believe it’s a lot more often than it should be and we’re led to believe we have a higher chance than we actually do at getting anything decent.
It is a legal requirement for Kabam to post the correct rates of lootboxes. They couldn't falsify them even if they wanted to

Technically there’s no legal requirement for them to do so (many crystals have no posted odds) but posting deliberately incorrect odds would probably violate their developer agreement with Apple and subject them to potential fraud tort (I.e. they could be sued). There’s no reason to do that when there’s no reason to lie about the odds. Few people seem to understand what odds mean regardless, and Kabam isn’t shy about posting very low odds for very rare drops. There’s absolutely no reason to lie about 1% odds in a crystal, when they are comfortable listing 0.3% odds or even 0.02% odds in crystals.

ahmynuts

People can hate on my opinion all they want but I have yet to see any physical proof that the rates are correct. However what I have seen is people who have opened well over 100 crystals total and have yet to get a 6 star from them. Probability says that that will happen sometimes but I personally believe it’s a lot more often than it should be and we’re led to believe we have a higher chance than we actually do at getting anything decent.
It is a legal requirement for Kabam to post the correct rates of lootboxes. They couldn't falsify them even if they wanted to
Technically there’s no legal requirement for them to do so (many crystals have no posted odds) but posting deliberately incorrect odds would probably violate their developer agreement with Apple and subject them to potential fraud tort (I.e. they could be sued). There’s no reason to do that when there’s no reason to lie about the odds. Few people seem to understand what odds mean regardless, and Kabam isn’t shy about posting very low odds for very rare drops. There’s absolutely no reason to lie about 1% odds in a crystal, when they are comfortable listing 0.3% odds or even 0.02% odds in crystals.

Didnt Canada have something passed where the rates of all purchasable loot boxes had to be displayed? Or as that a different country

Demonzfyre

People can hate on my opinion all they want but I have yet to see any physical proof that the rates are correct. However what I have seen is people who have opened well over 100 crystals total and have yet to get a 6 star from them. Probability says that that will happen sometimes but I personally believe it’s a lot more often than it should be and we’re led to believe we have a higher chance than we actually do at getting anything decent.
It is a legal requirement for Kabam to post the correct rates of lootboxes. They couldn't falsify them even if they wanted to
Technically there’s no legal requirement for them to do so (many crystals have no posted odds) but posting deliberately incorrect odds would probably violate their developer agreement with Apple and subject them to potential fraud tort (I.e. they could be sued). There’s no reason to do that when there’s no reason to lie about the odds. Few people seem to understand what odds mean regardless, and Kabam isn’t shy about posting very low odds for very rare drops. There’s absolutely no reason to lie about 1% odds in a crystal, when they are comfortable listing 0.3% odds or even 0.02% odds in crystals.
Didnt Canada have something passed where the rates of all purchasable loot boxes had to be displayed? Or as that a different country

Apple did.

Kabam Miike

People can hate on my opinion all they want but I have yet to see any physical proof that the rates are correct. However what I have seen is people who have opened well over 100 crystals total and have yet to get a 6 star from them. Probability says that that will happen sometimes but I personally believe it’s a lot more often than it should be and we’re led to believe we have a higher chance than we actually do at getting anything decent.

That's not how math works.

There is literally ZERO benefit to us lying about drop rates. Not to us, not to you, not to anybody.