All you have to do is Prey in RN Jesus However the crystal u buy with units are very bad deal best use unit to buy energy refills to get chapter completions rewards not all champs are bad if you use them properly they don't have to be meta to be good unless its **cough cough jabari panther** cough cough
Seeing as Mutant is generally considered the best class, I'm not seeing the problem here. Also, to find more of a silver lining, the less Catalysts you're using on any class (except for Mutant T6cc) means you're saving them for the class you DO want.
Maybe im being dense but what is wrong with 3 rank up gems in the mutant class. After science, it is the most diverse class in the game and 3 god tier mutants work in very different kind of content. Imagine getting 3 tech instead.
Yes ideally you want 3 different classes but 3 mutants are not bad. Hope RNG favors you with red mags, AA, KP and Apoc. You will love the gems then.
JUST PULLED MY 3RD MUTANT 4-5 GEM OUT OF A TOTAL OF 3 4-5 CRYSTALS… THAT IS A HALF OF A PERCENT CHANCE TO HAPPEN. THIS IS BULL, THIS GAME INTENTIONALLY GIVES YOU CLASSES YOU DONT WANT, THE WORST IN THE GAME… I DO NOT CARE IF THIS IS “luck” or not… this is a statistical impossibility, the odds of getting 1/6 THREE CONSECUTIVE TIMES IS ASTRONOMICAL, the only rational explanation is that this game favors classes that your roster has less strength in. At this point NOBODY can convince me other wise, I have basically won the lottery of bad luck UNLESS the game is rigged… therefore it must be rigged
You wanna talk about statical impossibility ?? There are over 200 champs in the game what is the probability of getting she Hulk in my first and second ever 6* crystal.
It happens at times, there was a time I only got 4* White Magneto back-to-back from 4* crystals, basically from a new champ all the way to max sig. Oh yeah, there was also that one time my first 7* was also my 2nd 7*, then my 3rd just so happened to also be my 4th lmao.
RNG in Marvel Contest of Champions is exactly that: random.
To list drop rates and secretly operate independently of them wouldn't just be unethical, it would be illegal.
Yes, sometimes mistakes happen and we work to quickly resolve them. But no, this isn't one of those times, and no this isn't a predetermined outcome meant to intentionally frustrate Summoners. (I definitely wouldn't allow mechanics to exist to intentionally funnel people into the forums to yell about stuff, that would make my job... yeesh)
I'm sorry for the poor RNG on this one, better luck on the next.
</p>
First lets get it straight. The drops ARE RIGGED. Not in the traditional sense, but the outcome is 100% NOT random and is based on a pre-determined set of parameters. As much as I respect Kabam Jax, it is incredibly audacious for him to think he would be privy to the information or details of this system. In a multi-million dollar business this type of system would only be green-lit and the particulars known to the few at the top who actually call the shots. This has been covered before and the patents for such a system documented.
Its not actually the constant same result which is telling. Getting mutant 3 times in a row is of course possible. Lets look at the T4cc crystal. Even now I have seen 30 opened and 1 class not drop. I'll even give it to them that its possible. You could roll a dice 30 times and not land a 6. But what is so telling is the correlation between the class not dropping and the fact that it is also the same class you have 0 of. And its always the class you have the least of that drops the least. That is consistency. Which by its very nature means its not random. So I could believe that a dice rolled 30 times may not roll a 6. But not that if someone were to give me a number prior to rolling that dice that I could just so happen to roll 30 times and not land on the number chosen. That correlation is whats happening consistently and at that point the idea of randomness has to be abandoned.
Also remember that they are accountable to no one or governed by no one. There is no gaming commission as with casinos to validate the fairness of their game. Although I believe in due time this will happen and we will see a big shake up. Maybe not with this game but in the future of mobile gaming.
RNG in Marvel Contest of Champions is exactly that: random.
To list drop rates and secretly operate independently of them wouldn't just be unethical, it would be illegal.
Yes, sometimes mistakes happen and we work to quickly resolve them. But no, this isn't one of those times, and no this isn't a predetermined outcome meant to intentionally frustrate Summoners. (I definitely wouldn't allow mechanics to exist to intentionally funnel people into the forums to yell about stuff, that would make my job... yeesh)
I'm sorry for the poor RNG on this one, better luck on the next.
</p>
First lets get it straight. The drops ARE RIGGED. Not in the traditional sense, but the outcome is 100% NOT random and is based on a pre-determined set of parameters. As much as I respect Kabam Jax, it is incredibly audacious for him to think he would be privy to the information or details of this system. In a multi-million dollar business this type of system would only be green-lit and the particulars known to the few at the top who actually call the shots. This has been covered before and the patents for such a system documented.
Its not actually the constant same result which is telling. Getting mutant 3 times in a row is of course possible. Lets look at the T4cc crystal. Even now I have seen 30 opened and 1 class not drop. I'll even give it to them that its possible. You could roll a dice 30 times and not land a 6. But what is so telling is the correlation between the class not dropping and the fact that it is also the same class you have 0 of. And its always the class you have the least of that drops the least. That is consistency. Which by its very nature means its not random. So I could believe that a dice rolled 30 times may not roll a 6. But not that if someone were to give me a number prior to rolling that dice that I could just so happen to roll 30 times and not land on the number chosen. That correlation is whats happening consistently and at that point the idea of randomness has to be abandoned.
Also remember that they are accountable to no one or governed by no one. There is no gaming commission as with casinos to validate the fairness of their game. Although I believe in due time this will happen and we will see a big shake up. Maybe not with this game but in the future of mobile gaming.
... These are absolutely not rigged. Yes these things are closely monitored and regulated. No, there is no algorithm or software working to avoid giving you things you want... because they wouldn't know which things you want.
First lets get it straight. The drops ARE RIGGED. Not in the traditional sense, but the outcome is 100% NOT random and is based on a pre-determined set of parameters. As much as I respect Kabam Jax, it is incredibly audacious for him to think he would be privy to the information or details of this system. In a multi-million dollar business this type of system would only be green-lit and the particulars known to the few at the top who actually call the shots. This has been covered before and the patents for such a system documented.
Its not actually the constant same result which is telling. Getting mutant 3 times in a row is of course possible. Lets look at the T4cc crystal. Even now I have seen 30 opened and 1 class not drop. I'll even give it to them that its possible. You could roll a dice 30 times and not land a 6. But what is so telling is the correlation between the class not dropping and the fact that it is also the same class you have 0 of. And its always the class you have the least of that drops the least. That is consistency. Which by its very nature means its not random. So I could believe that a dice rolled 30 times may not roll a 6. But not that if someone were to give me a number prior to rolling that dice that I could just so happen to roll 30 times and not land on the number chosen. That correlation is whats happening consistently and at that point the idea of randomness has to be abandoned.
Also remember that they are accountable to no one or governed by no one. There is no gaming commission as with casinos to validate the fairness of their game. Although I believe in due time this will happen and we will see a big shake up. Maybe not with this game but in the future of mobile gaming.
It has been a while since someone has brought out "the patents." I'll bet you haven't actually read them, because no one who brings them up ever seems to have actually read them. I've read them. The people pointing to the patents are completely wrong, and this has been pointed out many times. No one gets past reading the titles of those patents and completely misunderstanding what they even describe, much less anything else about the way patents are actually used.
I have tracked random drops for a lot of crystals. I have tested many RNG conspiracy theories. And every single one of them has been disproved within statistical limits. They are all bogus. This doesn't keep people from repeating discredited old ones or inventing new ones, but at this point the burden of proof is on the people making the claims, and they always say they can prove it, but then never actually seem able to do so.
Gaming commissions do not validate the fairness of games. They regulate them and ensure they follow the rules. But nowhere in the regulations governing things like slot machines is there a requirement to be "fair." Some slot machines average a 99% return. Some average a 93% return. Different games of chance return different average amounts per bet, and no one decides that one return is fair and another isn't (there is technically a minimum return on most slot machines, but it is incredibly low - about 75% - and still allows for a wide range of possibilities).
I've seen the actual implementation of how random lootboxes are implemented in other games. Not this one specifically, but if this was supposed to be some super secret thing, there's no way I would ever be allowed to see it. But it isn't, because it isn't super secret anything. The mechanics of lootboxes are the kind of thing that would barely qualify as interesting homework for a 200 level CompSci class, and is well documented in textbooks and gaming design courses.
If your theory of never getting the class you don't have was correct, this would be trivial to test for, and actually show irrefutable data for. But people are always saying they saw astronomically unlikely results like missing a class 30 times in a row, which first of all isn't astronomically rare (it is one chance in 237) but also there's never objective proof. No video evidence, no screenshots that can be verified, it is always "I know what I saw." For a claim like this, if it were true it would be easy to spot. And yet no one ever spots it and actually records it. To me, that's what's telling.
Every bug, error, mistake, implementation glitch, and straight up incorrect behavior regarding random anything in this game has always been documented. There's always strong evidence for it, because if it is a real phenomenon it is always captured by multiple players. Crystal RNG rigging has never, ever, ever been demonstrated to be occurring.
@DNA3000 I wont quote your post as to not clog up the thread. Let me set out by saying I regularly respect your views and find you to be a well educated and well informed member of the community. I would also like to take the opportunity to thank you for the now famous '1 loyalty revive' post which changed the face of AW forever.
Back to our discussion..
Ill grant you I have never read the patents and commend you for doing so. If you feel they don't cover any kind of biased system then i'm inclined to believe you. I do wonder why they exist in the first place but fair enough.
You cannot however throw the lack of evidence out there because lets be honest, this happens on a daily basis. I could open 50 T4cc crystals right now and before they are open I could tell you the class I will get the least of (the class I own the least of). I believe this happens too consistently too not mean something and can be demonstrated easily.
the fact of the matter is that nothing can be done about it so there is no point trying to prove it. Players just live with it. I have accepted we play in a rigged system, its just how much we can tolerate it and what are the upper limits of the system (If you have to open 50 T4cc to get 1 cat then so be it, and yes I've seen that happen too)
In regards to gaming commissions, you know what I mean. If they 'regulate' gambling then the lack thereof of such a commission in mobile gaming is the reason the above can continue unchecked.
To Kabam Jax, while I do believe in your sincerity and conviction, I just don't think you would be given a straight answer either. No one would ever confirm even if you asked at the top. Id also like to thank you for everything you do here and your great work in the community.
I myself am happy with the tolerance levels on the bias rolls, I think sometimes it pushes the upper limits but have accepted that its the price of playing the game and a price i'm willing to accept. Lets not fool ourselves however into thinking we are not playing with loaded dice.
@DNA3000 I wont quote your post as to not clog up the thread. Let me set out by saying I regularly respect your views and find you to be a well educated and well informed member of the community. I would also like to take the opportunity to thank you for the now famous '1 loyalty revive' post which changed the face of AW forever.
Back to our discussion..
Ill grant you I have never read the patents and commend you for doing so. If you feel they don't cover any kind of biased system then i'm inclined to believe you. I do wonder why they exist in the first place but fair enough.
You cannot however throw the lack of evidence out there because lets be honest, this happens on a daily basis. I could open 50 T4cc crystals right now and before they are open I could tell you the class I will get the least of (the class I own the least of). I believe this happens too consistently too not mean something and can be demonstrated easily.
the fact of the matter is that nothing can be done about it so there is no point trying to prove it. Players just live with it. I have accepted we play in a rigged system, its just how much we can tolerate it and what are the upper limits of the system (If you have to open 50 T4cc to get 1 cat then so be it, and yes I've seen that happen too)
In regards to gaming commissions, you know what I mean. If they 'regulate' gambling then the lack thereof of such a commission in mobile gaming is the reason the above can continue unchecked.
To Kabam Jax, while I do believe in your sincerity and conviction, I just don't think you would be given a straight answer either. No one would ever confirm even if you asked at the top. Id also like to thank you for everything you do here and your great work in the community.
I myself am happy with the tolerance levels on the bias rolls, I think sometimes it pushes the upper limits but have accepted that its the price of playing the game and a price i'm willing to accept. Lets not fool ourselves however into thinking we are not playing with loaded dice.
You cannot however throw the lack of evidence out there because lets be honest, this happens on a daily basis. I could open 50 T4cc crystals right now and before they are open I could tell you the class I will get the least of (the class I own the least of).
If you're that certain you can do that, then do so. People have said this before, then when challenged to actually simply do it, it never seems to actually work. One person literally told me the game could be changing the odds when it detects it is being recorded as the explanation for why what they knew for certain was happening couldn't be recorded.
Whenever I've done these experiments, they've never turned out the way the theories claim they should. And I've done it a lot. All it would take would be one person recording a statistically significant bias to demonstrate that that bias actually happens. But it is always something like five crystals in a row and post hoc predicted, not the claimed pre-roll prediction followed by an actual predicted sequence.
If someone can actually demonstrate this, I would look. But when I say no one has, I mean no one has done so to within any reasonable degree. And that's not just me not seeing what's there: I have actually backed the players who reported unusual streakiness or bias in Battlegrounds draft order. That one is something I believe is a real thing going on, and people have actually produced statistically significant evidence to show something is happening.
But the crystals? Across literally hundreds of thousands of crystals across many different crystal varieties, the supposed bias that is theorized to be there never shows up. Not in PHCs, not in featured crystals, not in special crystals, not in arena crystals, and not as far as I've seen so far in catalyst crystals. Again, if the bias was there and it was so obvious human beings could just *see* it plain as day, there is absolutely no way it could escape being recorded. It can't be so subtle it can't be recorded easily, and yet so blatant people can just spot it by normal human observation. That's impossible.
RNG in Marvel Contest of Champions is exactly that: random.
To list drop rates and secretly operate independently of them wouldn't just be unethical, it would be illegal.
Yes, sometimes mistakes happen and we work to quickly resolve them. But no, this isn't one of those times, and no this isn't a predetermined outcome meant to intentionally frustrate Summoners. (I definitely wouldn't allow mechanics to exist to intentionally funnel people into the forums to yell about stuff, that would make my job... yeesh)
I'm sorry for the poor RNG on this one, better luck on the next.
</p>
First lets get it straight. The drops ARE RIGGED. Not in the traditional sense, but the outcome is 100% NOT random and is based on a pre-determined set of parameters. As much as I respect Kabam Jax, it is incredibly audacious for him to think he would be privy to the information or details of this system. In a multi-million dollar business this type of system would only be green-lit and the particulars known to the few at the top who actually call the shots. This has been covered before and the patents for such a system documented.
Its not actually the constant same result which is telling. Getting mutant 3 times in a row is of course possible. Lets look at the T4cc crystal. Even now I have seen 30 opened and 1 class not drop. I'll even give it to them that its possible. You could roll a dice 30 times and not land a 6. But what is so telling is the correlation between the class not dropping and the fact that it is also the same class you have 0 of. And its always the class you have the least of that drops the least. That is consistency. Which by its very nature means its not random. So I could believe that a dice rolled 30 times may not roll a 6. But not that if someone were to give me a number prior to rolling that dice that I could just so happen to roll 30 times and not land on the number chosen. That correlation is whats happening consistently and at that point the idea of randomness has to be abandoned.
Also remember that they are accountable to no one or governed by no one. There is no gaming commission as with casinos to validate the fairness of their game. Although I believe in due time this will happen and we will see a big shake up. Maybe not with this game but in the future of mobile gaming.
Haha you mentioned patents. Someone watched some Prof Hoff videos.
Ill grant you I have never read the patents and commend you for doing so. If you feel they don't cover any kind of biased system then i'm inclined to believe you. I do wonder why they exist in the first place but fair enough.
Aka "Mystery boxes that adjust due to past spending behavior." Seems obvious, right? Until you read it. The patent describes an invention whereby a game can observe how players spend, and adjust the lootbox odds based on changes in their spending habits. You might think the idea is to reward whales with better odds, but actually the invention specifically calls out the opposite effect: "In some implementations the distribution probability may be increased so that the probability of stochastically choosing an individual potential award associated with the distribution probability is increased when a user's spending metric indicates a purchase history below a threshold."
In other words, when the game sees a player start spending less, it can bump up the odds on their lootboxes to try to get them to start spending more again. Is this something you think MCOC does? Furthermore, implicit in this patent is the notion that if you're going to do this, you are going to *tell* the players you are going to do this. Because if you intend to do this to get players to spend more money, what possible reason could you have to not just not tell them you're doing this, but actually lie about it and claim you aren't doing this. That would be like a store putting its stock on sale to generate more business, but then lying to its customers and saying nothing is marked down at all. What possible reason could there be to do that? That's completely counterproductive.
It also seems pretty clear that although the patent is written in such a way to be as general as possible to cover as many use cases as possible, the exemplar case the invention was written to describe is a fantasy MMORPG, not MCOC.
In second place is this patent: https://patents.justia.com/patent/11596862: "System and method for rotating drop rates in a mystery box" This patent describes an invention whereby a game can monitor how much a lootbox is purchased by the players, and when the players purchase rate drops, indicating a lack of interest in it, the drop rates for more valuable prizes can be increased to make the lootbox more valuable. Do you think Kabam does this? And once again, do you think Kabam would do this and not tell the players they were doing this, when the whole point is to make the lootboxes more valuable so players buy more of them? Once again, lying about doing this seems obviously counter productive. If you want to sell more lootboxes by making their odds more attractive, you advertise that, not hide it.
None of the patents attributed to Kabam describe a patent whereby the game attempts to determine what resources a player needs the most, and then deliberately alter the odds of lootboxes to make those things harder to get. Keep in mind that by law all patents are publicly accessible: patents must be published when granted. No company would patent such an invention, because no company would want to be associated with such a patent.
Furthermore, the same people who point to Kabam's patents also say that this sort of thing is common in the industry: that basically everyone does it. But if everyone does it, no one can own the patent on it. You can't own the patent on a common place thing. The term is prior art. If you apply for an invention and someone else can show that the thing you are trying to invent is already described or used elsewhere, that patent application would be invalid.
Honestly, the two patents described above also seem shaky to me on obviousness grounds. You can't patent obvious solutions to problems that any reasonable professional in the industry would think was trivial. The idea of making lootbox odds better to sell more when players buy less seems super obvious. The patent filers probably knew this, which makes it very likely these are defensive patents, not patents intended to be used actively. In other words, Kabam filed a ton of patents on a bunch of stuff trying to build up a patent portfolio they could use against anyone who tried to sue them for violation someone else's patents. But I doubt if they were seriously trying to corner the market on lootbox odds management.
@DNA3000 I wont quote your post as to not clog up the thread. Let me set out by saying I regularly respect your views and find you to be a well educated and well informed member of the community. I would also like to take the opportunity to thank you for the now famous '1 loyalty revive' post which changed the face of AW forever.
Back to our discussion..
Ill grant you I have never read the patents and commend you for doing so. If you feel they don't cover any kind of biased system then i'm inclined to believe you. I do wonder why they exist in the first place but fair enough.
You cannot however throw the lack of evidence out there because lets be honest, this happens on a daily basis. I could open 50 T4cc crystals right now and before they are open I could tell you the class I will get the least of (the class I own the least of). I believe this happens too consistently too not mean something and can be demonstrated easily.
the fact of the matter is that nothing can be done about it so there is no point trying to prove it. Players just live with it. I have accepted we play in a rigged system, its just how much we can tolerate it and what are the upper limits of the system (If you have to open 50 T4cc to get 1 cat then so be it, and yes I've seen that happen too)
In regards to gaming commissions, you know what I mean. If they 'regulate' gambling then the lack thereof of such a commission in mobile gaming is the reason the above can continue unchecked.
To Kabam Jax, while I do believe in your sincerity and conviction, I just don't think you would be given a straight answer either. No one would ever confirm even if you asked at the top. Id also like to thank you for everything you do here and your great work in the community.
I myself am happy with the tolerance levels on the bias rolls, I think sometimes it pushes the upper limits but have accepted that its the price of playing the game and a price i'm willing to accept. Lets not fool ourselves however into thinking we are not playing with loaded dice.
What you're describing is confirmation bias. When you open a Crystal, it sends a request to the server to instantaneously generate an outcome based on the available possibilities within the server pool. In the case of your example, one of six possibilities. There is no simultaneous assessment of your inventory, or what you lack, or what you're working on. All these things are part-and-parcel with RNG. You will see repeat outcomes. You will see some outcomes that rarely or never occur. What you call unfavorable is just luck. For every unlucky Player, there's likely one pulling everything they want. That has nothing to do with the Player. It's the way the RNG is generated. As to your question about why they exist, it's been covered before. When you're in the process of designing a game like this, you apply for as many patents as you can. Not all of them will be used.
RNG in Marvel Contest of Champions is exactly that: random.
To list drop rates and secretly operate independently of them wouldn't just be unethical, it would be illegal.
Yes, sometimes mistakes happen and we work to quickly resolve them. But no, this isn't one of those times, and no this isn't a predetermined outcome meant to intentionally frustrate Summoners. (I definitely wouldn't allow mechanics to exist to intentionally funnel people into the forums to yell about stuff, that would make my job... yeesh)
I'm sorry for the poor RNG on this one, better luck on the next.
</p>
First lets get it straight. The drops ARE RIGGED. Not in the traditional sense, but the outcome is 100% NOT random and is based on a pre-determined set of parameters. As much as I respect Kabam Jax, it is incredibly audacious for him to think he would be privy to the information or details of this system. In a multi-million dollar business this type of system would only be green-lit and the particulars known to the few at the top who actually call the shots. This has been covered before and the patents for such a system documented.
Its not actually the constant same result which is telling. Getting mutant 3 times in a row is of course possible. Lets look at the T4cc crystal. Even now I have seen 30 opened and 1 class not drop. I'll even give it to them that its possible. You could roll a dice 30 times and not land a 6. But what is so telling is the correlation between the class not dropping and the fact that it is also the same class you have 0 of. And its always the class you have the least of that drops the least. That is consistency. Which by its very nature means its not random. So I could believe that a dice rolled 30 times may not roll a 6. But not that if someone were to give me a number prior to rolling that dice that I could just so happen to roll 30 times and not land on the number chosen. That correlation is whats happening consistently and at that point the idea of randomness has to be abandoned.
Also remember that they are accountable to no one or governed by no one. There is no gaming commission as with casinos to validate the fairness of their game. Although I believe in due time this will happen and we will see a big shake up. Maybe not with this game but in the future of mobile gaming.
Can you explain to me how they can rig crystal drop rates so effectively and without any glitches or issues but somehow can't release a update without breaking something?
@DNA3000 I wont quote your post as to not clog up the thread. Let me set out by saying I regularly respect your views and find you to be a well educated and well informed member of the community. I would also like to take the opportunity to thank you for the now famous '1 loyalty revive' post which changed the face of AW forever.
Back to our discussion..
Ill grant you I have never read the patents and commend you for doing so. If you feel they don't cover any kind of biased system then i'm inclined to believe you. I do wonder why they exist in the first place but fair enough.
You cannot however throw the lack of evidence out there because lets be honest, this happens on a daily basis. I could open 50 T4cc crystals right now and before they are open I could tell you the class I will get the least of (the class I own the least of). I believe this happens too consistently too not mean something and can be demonstrated easily.
the fact of the matter is that nothing can be done about it so there is no point trying to prove it. Players just live with it. I have accepted we play in a rigged system, its just how much we can tolerate it and what are the upper limits of the system (If you have to open 50 T4cc to get 1 cat then so be it, and yes I've seen that happen too)
In regards to gaming commissions, you know what I mean. If they 'regulate' gambling then the lack thereof of such a commission in mobile gaming is the reason the above can continue unchecked.
To Kabam Jax, while I do believe in your sincerity and conviction, I just don't think you would be given a straight answer either. No one would ever confirm even if you asked at the top. Id also like to thank you for everything you do here and your great work in the community.
I myself am happy with the tolerance levels on the bias rolls, I think sometimes it pushes the upper limits but have accepted that its the price of playing the game and a price i'm willing to accept. Lets not fool ourselves however into thinking we are not playing with loaded dice.
In regards to gaming commissions, you know what I mean. If they 'regulate' gambling then the lack thereof of such a commission in mobile gaming is the reason the above can continue unchecked.
Gaming commissions only enforce specific gaming regulations. But they are not the only oversight on the gambling industry. The gambling industry is also subject to the law. If a casino advertises their slot machines have a certain percentage return, the gaming authorities could investigate them and determine that advertisement was false, which violates slot machine regulations. But they would separately be liable for fraud. If Kabam advertises specific drop odds and also that those odds are not manipulated, and this statement is false, they would also be committing an act of fraud, which is a crime.
You cannot however throw the lack of evidence out there because lets be honest, this happens on a daily basis. I could open 50 T4cc crystals right now and before they are open I could tell you the class I will get the least of (the class I own the least of).
One person literally told me the game could be changing the odds when it detects it is being recorded as the explanation for why what they knew for certain was happening couldn't be recorded.
Even if the game could detect recording software running, all you'd need to do to bypass that is record it with an external device. Unless they think the game can access the camera to detect another phone recording the screen. But then the solution is cover the camera. And if they think the game detects a covered camera and assumes it is being recorded, just cover the camera for all your openings and BOOM, you've tricked the game into better drop rates.
Well it seems this discussion came at a perfect time and may now come to somewhat of a conclusion and surprise to me. As we are now in the middle of an 8.4 beta I decided to test the theory and open a mass sample size of both T4cc and T3cc.
Of the 640 T4cc crystals opened the spread was 18/16/17/16/17/16 % across the classes. Of the 690 T3cc opened the spread was 15/16/18/18/17/16 % across all classes. NO class was much higher or lower than the rest despite each class catalyst having a very clear class deficiency and surplus.
To the OP I can say that I think, at least to me this has proven that there is no correlation to prior results on what we get. Please do not quit over your mutant rank up gems.
To @DNA3000 I want to thank you for an excellent discussion and encouraging me to do this.
To Kabam Jax, I apologise for any insinuations and can firmly say I believe there are no bias systems in place.
and to @ahmynuts I think I will go and check some of that grass out.
Thank you everyone for your thoughts and for putting this to bed in my mind. Ill certainly enjoy the game more now.
It always brings a smile to my face when people test things themselves, even if it is someone who initially disagrees with me. Ultimately, that's how these conspiracy theories die out, or at least fall out of vogue. Lots of people look, and contribute to the totality of data we have, collected by a wide range of different players with different perspectives. That makes it difficult for those who continue to promote those ideas to assert that everyone involved is either covering up the truth or is wrong.
Comments
However the crystal u buy with units are very bad deal best use unit to buy energy refills to get chapter completions rewards not all champs are bad if you use them properly they don't have to be meta to be good unless its **cough cough jabari panther** cough cough
Yes ideally you want 3 different classes but 3 mutants are not bad. Hope RNG favors you with red mags, AA, KP and Apoc. You will love the gems then.
There are over 200 champs in the game what is the probability of getting she Hulk in my first and second ever 6* crystal.
Oh yeah, there was also that one time my first 7* was also my 2nd 7*, then my 3rd just so happened to also be my 4th lmao.
This has been covered before and the patents for such a system documented.
Its not actually the constant same result which is telling. Getting mutant 3 times in a row is of course possible. Lets look at the T4cc crystal. Even now I have seen 30 opened and 1 class not drop. I'll even give it to them that its possible. You could roll a dice 30 times and not land a 6. But what is so telling is the correlation between the class not dropping and the fact that it is also the same class you have 0 of. And its always the class you have the least of that drops the least. That is consistency. Which by its very nature means its not random. So I could believe that a dice rolled 30 times may not roll a 6. But not that if someone were to give me a number prior to rolling that dice that I could just so happen to roll 30 times and not land on the number chosen. That correlation is whats happening consistently and at that point the idea of randomness has to be abandoned.
Also remember that they are accountable to no one or governed by no one. There is no gaming commission as with casinos to validate the fairness of their game. Although I believe in due time this will happen and we will see a big shake up. Maybe not with this game but in the future of mobile gaming.
These are absolutely not rigged.
Yes these things are closely monitored and regulated.
No, there is no algorithm or software working to avoid giving you things you want... because they wouldn't know which things you want.
And this is how misinformation spreads.
I have tracked random drops for a lot of crystals. I have tested many RNG conspiracy theories. And every single one of them has been disproved within statistical limits. They are all bogus. This doesn't keep people from repeating discredited old ones or inventing new ones, but at this point the burden of proof is on the people making the claims, and they always say they can prove it, but then never actually seem able to do so.
Gaming commissions do not validate the fairness of games. They regulate them and ensure they follow the rules. But nowhere in the regulations governing things like slot machines is there a requirement to be "fair." Some slot machines average a 99% return. Some average a 93% return. Different games of chance return different average amounts per bet, and no one decides that one return is fair and another isn't (there is technically a minimum return on most slot machines, but it is incredibly low - about 75% - and still allows for a wide range of possibilities).
I've seen the actual implementation of how random lootboxes are implemented in other games. Not this one specifically, but if this was supposed to be some super secret thing, there's no way I would ever be allowed to see it. But it isn't, because it isn't super secret anything. The mechanics of lootboxes are the kind of thing that would barely qualify as interesting homework for a 200 level CompSci class, and is well documented in textbooks and gaming design courses.
If your theory of never getting the class you don't have was correct, this would be trivial to test for, and actually show irrefutable data for. But people are always saying they saw astronomically unlikely results like missing a class 30 times in a row, which first of all isn't astronomically rare (it is one chance in 237) but also there's never objective proof. No video evidence, no screenshots that can be verified, it is always "I know what I saw." For a claim like this, if it were true it would be easy to spot. And yet no one ever spots it and actually records it. To me, that's what's telling.
Every bug, error, mistake, implementation glitch, and straight up incorrect behavior regarding random anything in this game has always been documented. There's always strong evidence for it, because if it is a real phenomenon it is always captured by multiple players. Crystal RNG rigging has never, ever, ever been demonstrated to be occurring.
Never.
Back to our discussion..
Ill grant you I have never read the patents and commend you for doing so. If you feel they don't cover any kind of biased system then i'm inclined to believe you. I do wonder why they exist in the first place but fair enough.
You cannot however throw the lack of evidence out there because lets be honest, this happens on a daily basis. I could open 50 T4cc crystals right now and before they are open I could tell you the class I will get the least of (the class I own the least of). I believe this happens too consistently too not mean something and can be demonstrated easily.
the fact of the matter is that nothing can be done about it so there is no point trying to prove it. Players just live with it. I have accepted we play in a rigged system, its just how much we can tolerate it and what are the upper limits of the system (If you have to open 50 T4cc to get 1 cat then so be it, and yes I've seen that happen too)
In regards to gaming commissions, you know what I mean. If they 'regulate' gambling then the lack thereof of such a commission in mobile gaming is the reason the above can continue unchecked.
To Kabam Jax, while I do believe in your sincerity and conviction, I just don't think you would be given a straight answer either. No one would ever confirm even if you asked at the top. Id also like to thank you for everything you do here and your great work in the community.
I myself am happy with the tolerance levels on the bias rolls, I think sometimes it pushes the upper limits but have accepted that its the price of playing the game and a price i'm willing to accept. Lets not fool ourselves however into thinking we are not playing with loaded dice.
Whenever I've done these experiments, they've never turned out the way the theories claim they should. And I've done it a lot. All it would take would be one person recording a statistically significant bias to demonstrate that that bias actually happens. But it is always something like five crystals in a row and post hoc predicted, not the claimed pre-roll prediction followed by an actual predicted sequence.
If someone can actually demonstrate this, I would look. But when I say no one has, I mean no one has done so to within any reasonable degree. And that's not just me not seeing what's there: I have actually backed the players who reported unusual streakiness or bias in Battlegrounds draft order. That one is something I believe is a real thing going on, and people have actually produced statistically significant evidence to show something is happening.
But the crystals? Across literally hundreds of thousands of crystals across many different crystal varieties, the supposed bias that is theorized to be there never shows up. Not in PHCs, not in featured crystals, not in special crystals, not in arena crystals, and not as far as I've seen so far in catalyst crystals. Again, if the bias was there and it was so obvious human beings could just *see* it plain as day, there is absolutely no way it could escape being recorded. It can't be so subtle it can't be recorded easily, and yet so blatant people can just spot it by normal human observation. That's impossible.
Aka "Mystery boxes that adjust due to past spending behavior." Seems obvious, right? Until you read it. The patent describes an invention whereby a game can observe how players spend, and adjust the lootbox odds based on changes in their spending habits. You might think the idea is to reward whales with better odds, but actually the invention specifically calls out the opposite effect: "In some implementations the distribution probability may be increased so that the probability of stochastically choosing an individual potential award associated with the distribution probability is increased when a user's spending metric indicates a purchase history below a threshold."
In other words, when the game sees a player start spending less, it can bump up the odds on their lootboxes to try to get them to start spending more again. Is this something you think MCOC does? Furthermore, implicit in this patent is the notion that if you're going to do this, you are going to *tell* the players you are going to do this. Because if you intend to do this to get players to spend more money, what possible reason could you have to not just not tell them you're doing this, but actually lie about it and claim you aren't doing this. That would be like a store putting its stock on sale to generate more business, but then lying to its customers and saying nothing is marked down at all. What possible reason could there be to do that? That's completely counterproductive.
It also seems pretty clear that although the patent is written in such a way to be as general as possible to cover as many use cases as possible, the exemplar case the invention was written to describe is a fantasy MMORPG, not MCOC.
In second place is this patent: https://patents.justia.com/patent/11596862: "System and method for rotating drop rates in a mystery box" This patent describes an invention whereby a game can monitor how much a lootbox is purchased by the players, and when the players purchase rate drops, indicating a lack of interest in it, the drop rates for more valuable prizes can be increased to make the lootbox more valuable. Do you think Kabam does this? And once again, do you think Kabam would do this and not tell the players they were doing this, when the whole point is to make the lootboxes more valuable so players buy more of them? Once again, lying about doing this seems obviously counter productive. If you want to sell more lootboxes by making their odds more attractive, you advertise that, not hide it.
None of the patents attributed to Kabam describe a patent whereby the game attempts to determine what resources a player needs the most, and then deliberately alter the odds of lootboxes to make those things harder to get. Keep in mind that by law all patents are publicly accessible: patents must be published when granted. No company would patent such an invention, because no company would want to be associated with such a patent.
Furthermore, the same people who point to Kabam's patents also say that this sort of thing is common in the industry: that basically everyone does it. But if everyone does it, no one can own the patent on it. You can't own the patent on a common place thing. The term is prior art. If you apply for an invention and someone else can show that the thing you are trying to invent is already described or used elsewhere, that patent application would be invalid.
Honestly, the two patents described above also seem shaky to me on obviousness grounds. You can't patent obvious solutions to problems that any reasonable professional in the industry would think was trivial. The idea of making lootbox odds better to sell more when players buy less seems super obvious. The patent filers probably knew this, which makes it very likely these are defensive patents, not patents intended to be used actively. In other words, Kabam filed a ton of patents on a bunch of stuff trying to build up a patent portfolio they could use against anyone who tried to sue them for violation someone else's patents. But I doubt if they were seriously trying to corner the market on lootbox odds management.
All these things are part-and-parcel with RNG. You will see repeat outcomes. You will see some outcomes that rarely or never occur. What you call unfavorable is just luck. For every unlucky Player, there's likely one pulling everything they want. That has nothing to do with the Player. It's the way the RNG is generated.
As to your question about why they exist, it's been covered before. When you're in the process of designing a game like this, you apply for as many patents as you can. Not all of them will be used.
Explain these
Such a silly theory.
Apoc?
Who else? Damn
Of the 640 T4cc crystals opened the spread was 18/16/17/16/17/16 % across the classes.
Of the 690 T3cc opened the spread was 15/16/18/18/17/16 % across all classes.
NO class was much higher or lower than the rest despite each class catalyst having a very clear class deficiency and surplus.
To the OP I can say that I think, at least to me this has proven that there is no correlation to prior results on what we get. Please do not quit over your mutant rank up gems.
To @DNA3000 I want to thank you for an excellent discussion and encouraging me to do this.
To Kabam Jax, I apologise for any insinuations and can firmly say I believe there are no bias systems in place.
and to @ahmynuts I think I will go and check some of that grass out.
Thank you everyone for your thoughts and for putting this to bed in my mind. Ill certainly enjoy the game more now.