Side quest ‘chance it’ odds bugged

ProjecteXProjecteX Member Posts: 53 ★
in General Discussion
I’ve just taken the chance it path 8 times one after another and hit path A all 8 times. Mike stated in the side quest forum post that this was the most common path at a 60% chance. I’m no mathematician but 8 times in a row at 60% chance per time, works out at 0.01% chance.
Am I incredibly lucky (unlucky) or is this a bug ?

Comments

  • SummonerNRSummonerNR Member, Guardian Posts: 12,355 Guardian
    Bad luck, but not as bad as you thought.
    You’re confusing writing a number versus a percent.

    0.60 to the 8th power = 1.68% (not 0.0168%)

    0.0168 = 1.68%, same way 0.60 = 60%
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Member, Guardian Posts: 19,424 Guardian
    Just to put a period to the sentence, 0.0168 or 1.68% chance is one in 59.54, or about one in sixty. So on average, one out of every sixty players that burns eight keys in a row will end up taking the A path all eight times.

    That's uncommon, but not exceptionally rare. With all the players doing the side quest, it is essentially guaranteed that thousands of players have seen this.
  • KerneasKerneas Member Posts: 3,807 ★★★★★
    As it was said, this happens to 1/60 players. With 1M players worldwide, you'd find nearly 17k people who have seen this as well
  • HeattblasttHeattblastt Member Posts: 254 ★★
    edited February 22
    .
  • DiscoNnectKingDiscoNnectKing Member Posts: 493 ★★★
    edited February 22
    Not bugged i got 4x out of 5 path c yesterday
  • BlızzyBlızzy Member Posts: 80 ★
    edited February 22
    I have gotten ag 7* shards path 3 times… its not rigged
  • PantherusNZPantherusNZ Member Posts: 2,038 ★★★★★
    Given it's 60% chance to get Path A, wouldn't that mean that getting Path A every time is actually the most likely single eventuality out of any other combination?
  • Mr Wilson FiskMr Wilson Fisk Member Posts: 300 ★★
    So far this week I got B, D, B, A, C using Chance It
  • AcidBurn404AcidBurn404 Member Posts: 351 ★★
    DNA3000 said:

    Just to put a period to the sentence, 0.0168 or 1.68% chance is one in 59.54, or about one in sixty. So on average, one out of every sixty players that burns eight keys in a row will end up taking the A path all eight times.

    That's uncommon, but not exceptionally rare. With all the players doing the side quest, it is essentially guaranteed that thousands of players have seen this.

    Bro teach me math......I'm learning parrallel lines and intersection and it's burning me out ( i'm a seventh grader in china)
    Do you do these math urslef or by caculators?
  • ProjecteXProjecteX Member Posts: 53 ★
    SummonerNR said:

    Bad luck, but not as bad as you thought.
    You’re confusing writing a number versus a percent.

    0.60 to the 8th power = 1.68% (not 0.0168%)

    0.0168 = 1.68%, same way 0.60 = 60%

    My mistake, thanks for explaining the real chance of this occurring.
  • WhiteKnightWhiteKnight Member Posts: 513 ★★★
    I also did 8 runs and got path A everytime, someone wanna work out the chances of two people achieving a 1.68% chance? 👀
  • captain_rogerscaptain_rogers Member Posts: 8,335 ★★★★★
    AcidBurn404 said:

    DNA3000 said:

    Just to put a period to the sentence, 0.0168 or 1.68% chance is one in 59.54, or about one in sixty. So on average, one out of every sixty players that burns eight keys in a row will end up taking the A path all eight times.

    That's uncommon, but not exceptionally rare. With all the players doing the side quest, it is essentially guaranteed that thousands of players have seen this.

    Bro teach me math......I'm learning parrallel lines and intersection and it's burning me out ( i'm a seventh grader in china)
    Do you do these math urslef or by caculators?
    Chinese Asking help in maths is wild ☠️
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Member, Guardian Posts: 19,424 Guardian
    AcidBurn404 said:

    DNA3000 said:

    Just to put a period to the sentence, 0.0168 or 1.68% chance is one in 59.54, or about one in sixty. So on average, one out of every sixty players that burns eight keys in a row will end up taking the A path all eight times.

    That's uncommon, but not exceptionally rare. With all the players doing the side quest, it is essentially guaranteed that thousands of players have seen this.

    Bro teach me math......I'm learning parrallel lines and intersection and it's burning me out ( i'm a seventh grader in china)
    Do you do these math urslef or by caculators?
    It has been a few years since I’ve done Euclidean geometry. Generally, I do the math in my head and use calculators for calculation, because no one has the time to do 0.6^8 by hand.

    I say I do math in my head and calculate with calculators because calculation is not math. What you’re doing now is math. What we’re doing here is arithmetic. Geometry might seem abstract and difficult to keep straight, and it is, but math is about understanding the concepts well enough to be able to manipulate them and understand the relationships between them and how to use them in combination. It is like understanding how champions work. You can read the numbers, but to really be good at using the champs you have to understand how the champs interact with each other, where the advantages and disadvantages are, how to leverage the powers and abilities against each other.

    The thought process that figures out how to construct a line B parallel to line A through point X is not all that different from figuring out how to find a good counter for Nebula in Winter of Woe. You have a situation, you have a set of tools, and you have constraints that limit your options. Now go win.

    (Construct circle H centered on point X that intersects Line A at points M and N. Construct circles J and K centered on points M and N with radius MX = NX. J and K intersect at point X and another point Y. Construct Line XY. XY is perpendicular to Line A. Using same construction construct Line B perpendicular to Line XY through point X. Line B is parallel to Line A through point X. QED.)
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