Number of active players

Tijjy007

Do we know? Or is there a way to figure out the number of active players for this game?

Comments

peixemacaco

Interesting question

Only Kabam knows

obsidiman

Interesting question

Only Kabam knows

Or maybe @DNA3000...

EdisonLaw

Thousands I'm guessing

ShashankGupta

Thousands I'm guessing

Lol just thousands bro what I think it's in lakhs

SummonerNR

Do the bare minimum of some Solo Event that has Rank Rewards, and then see what Rank # place you get.

Or Arena.

But the term “Active” is very subjective.
They login once a day to get free stuff.
They do couple fights a day.
Or actually do full things during the month like EQ, AQ, AW, etc.

Or look at AW Season rankings, of lowest Alliances (that must have still been doing wars), multiply by 30. Knock some off for lower alliances that are probably not full.

Etc.

Demonzfyre

Last estimate that I saw was 300-500 thousand. Not sure how accurate it is now.

peixemacaco

Found month downloads info below

Link= https://app.sensortower.com/ios/publisher/kabam-games-inc/1453908357

All games from Netmarble/Kabam

Mcoc with 200k on iOS

peixemacaco

2024 Info from Kabam site

Buttehrs

Found month downloads info below

Link= https://app.sensortower.com/ios/publisher/kabam-games-inc/1453908357

All games from Netmarble/Kabam

Mcoc with 200k on iOS

Monthly downloads certainly doesn't even remotely come close to equaling how many active players there are on a day to day basis.

Masquirade

"Monthly downloads certainly doesn't even remotely come close to equaling how many active players there are on a day to day basis."

Rather than being so dismissive, I think we can acknowledge this is a useful stat which indicates the potential amount of new players coming through the door, whether they're successfully retained or not. It's also more than you're attempting to contribute to the conversation 👍

Usagicassidy

Let's take a head count.

Hi, I'm an active player.

Colinwhitworth69

I have zero idea about this site's accuracy, but it looks like it knows: https://activeplayer.io/marvel-contest-of-the-champions/

peixemacaco

Let's take a head count.

Hi, I'm an active player.

🙋🏻‍♂️🙋🏻‍♂️ 2 now...

And Kabam's site info of 300m downloads since 2014 i wouldn't be surprised if more than 1m have the game and at least half of them plays day by day.

Vanitelia

Another variable that will impact any sort of data are alt accounts. Some people may keep them "active". I have an alt and I log into it every day and complete the gold track objective. People may have an account they only log in to collect the calendar rewards for the day.

peixemacaco

I have zero idea about this site's accuracy, but it looks like it knows: https://activeplayer.io/marvel-contest-of-the-champions/

Whoaaa
I didn't clicked the link

Great info

DNA3000

Interesting question

Only Kabam knows
Or maybe @DNA3000...

I don’t know, but I can estimate. It’s probably in the range of 600k to 700k players.

What do we know for certain? It’s definitely a lot more than 250k players, because that’s how many people show up in BG leaderboards, and BG does not have 100% participation and BG cannot include players below Uncollected.

From here we can make strong guesstimates. There’s about 30k alliances that show up in the AW leaderboards, although this fluctuates. On the one hand, not all alliances participate in war. On the other hand, the absolute bottom of the leaderboards are filled with barely participating players and alliances with only a few players. Also, an account can be on an alliance roster but be inactive. We can take a reasonable guess that the average alliance that shows up in the leaderboards has at least 10 active players, and thus there are about 300k players accounted for on the AW leaderboards. Again, AW does not have 100% participation, so we know the number of players is very likely significantly above that.

We can place a reasonable upper bound on the number of players as well. Years ago when the devs released the Rocket button, they actually stated that 1.3m game accounts pressed the button. Here I’m using “accounts” and ‘players” synonymously because even though there are players that play multiple accounts (I’m one of them) the vast majority of players probably play one, so the average is close to one, so the number of active accounts is going to be relatively close to the active number of players. I find it unlikely that the game got way more popular since then. It’s possible, but unlikely. I would guess that the current active player count is at least slightly lower than that.

So we have a credible range of active players between about 300k and 1.3M. Active here being players that log in and play at least once or twice a month. More likely given reasonable percentages of players active in various game modes the range is between about 500k and 1M players. Taking other factors into account, my gut instinct is we have between 600k and 700k active players in the game.

There are sites that attempt to estimate this using various statistical models. I’ve found all of them to be wildly inaccurate both estimating active players and game revenue. I would take all of them with a grain of salt. While I don’t know the exact numbers, the sites generally show numbers that are demonstrably impossible. The activeplayer.io counts shown above, for example, are completely ludicrous.

DNA3000

"Monthly downloads certainly doesn't even remotely come close to equaling how many active players there are on a day to day basis."

Rather than being so dismissive, I think we can acknowledge this is a useful stat which indicates the potential amount of new players coming through the door, whether they're successfully retained or not. It's also more than you're attempting to contribute to the conversation 👍

I find download counts to be only useful to compare to other game’s download counts, not to estimate active players. The problem is a factor we don’t have a good way to characterize: turnover.

A download is not a (new) player. Downloads can be new players, or they can be existing players downloading the game again. Every time a player gets a new phone, they become a new download. Every time someone resets their game client they become a new download. Between new phones and new tablets and device resets I’m probably responsible for over thirty downloads in ten years.

Of the downloads that are actually downloaded by people who do not currently play the game, we have to consider whether to count a player that plays for five minutes, decides the game is not for them, and never returns. Is this an “active player.” If we measure all unique logins for the month, they show up. But if we count players who shows up once and only for a short period of time and then never again, this would dramatically inflate our active player count. Every day the game experiences some turnover: players who played then quit and we need to make decisions on when to count a player who plays for a while and then quits, and when to not count them. Obviously, someone who has been playing every day for years and then suddenly quite and never shows up again should still count as an active player for this month. They were an active player in July. But a player that plays for five minutes and then never returns probably shouldn’t, because counting them would be a misleading statistic.

The dynamics of turnover in MCOC is something I don’t know how we would estimate, which means we can’t apply any sort of judgment to download numbers to even wildly estimate to what degree they convert to players active enough that we should be counting them. What we do know is that the conversion rate is very small in absolute terms, because the game has been downloaded hundred of millions of times but we don’t have hundreds of millions of players. My guess is that there’s a very short window of time where we lose most of the people who download the game. Maybe a day to a week. If we retain them for at least a week and they play multiple times in that week and keep coming back, we then retain a much higher percentage of those players because they become engaged with the game.

peixemacaco

"Monthly downloads certainly doesn't even remotely come close to equaling how many active players there are on a day to day basis."

Rather than being so dismissive, I think we can acknowledge this is a useful stat which indicates the potential amount of new players coming through the door, whether they're successfully retained or not. It's also more than you're attempting to contribute to the conversation 👍
I find download counts to be only useful to compare to other game’s download counts, not to estimate active players. The problem is a factor we don’t have a good way to characterize: turnover.

A download is not a (new) player. Downloads can be new players, or they can be existing players downloading the game again. Every time a player gets a new phone, they become a new download. Every time someone resets their game client they become a new download. Between new phones and new tablets and device resets I’m probably responsible for over thirty downloads in ten years.

Of the downloads that are actually downloaded by people who do not currently play the game, we have to consider whether to count a player that plays for five minutes, decides the game is not for them, and never returns. Is this an “active player.” If we measure all unique logins for the month, they show up. But if we count players who shows up once and only for a short period of time and then never again, this would dramatically inflate our active player count. Every day the game experiences some turnover: players who played then quit and we need to make decisions on when to count a player who plays for a while and then quits, and when to not count them. Obviously, someone who has been playing every day for years and then suddenly quite and never shows up again should still count as an active player for this month. They were an active player in July. But a player that plays for five minutes and then never returns probably shouldn’t, because counting them would be a misleading statistic.

The dynamics of turnover in MCOC is something I don’t know how we would estimate, which means we can’t apply any sort of judgment to download numbers to even wildly estimate to what degree they convert to players active enough that we should be counting them. What we do know is that the conversion rate is very small in absolute terms, because the game has been downloaded hundred of millions of times but we don’t have hundreds of millions of players. My guess is that there’s a very short window of time where we lose most of the people who download the game. Maybe a day to a week. If we retain them for at least a week and they play multiple times in that week and keep coming back, we then retain a much higher percentage of those players because they become engaged with the game.

Awesome

So, Kabam of course have real numbers of Mcoc Accounts, maybe not all actives, but the gross number.

But if they want to share this is up to them...

obsidiman

I knew @DNA3000 would come through.

klobberintyme

Numbers? I love numbers! Here's fun numbers:

(source: https://company.netmarble.com/)

Netmarble revenue over 4 years:

(negative profit numbers makes shareholders, like me, a little sad.)

2024 Q1 revenue (overall in KRW):

Of that, MCOC accounts for 8%:

What's that in USD, you ask?

A little over $11 million USD monthly! That's great! Right? Well, for Year over Year (YoY) comparisons...
(for clarity, all KRW to USD conversions are by historical exchange rates)

2024 Q1 MCOC earnings: $34M (rounded)
2023 Q1 MCOC earnings: $42M
2022 Q1 MCOC earnings: $43.4M
2021 Q1 MCOC earnings: $59.8M
2020 Q1 MCOC earnings: $62.1M
2019 Q1 MCOC earnings: $61M
2018 Q1 MCOC earnings: $69.1M
2017 Q2 MCOC earnings: $59.8M (earliest earnings report available)

But hey, you might say, Q1 is notoriously the sleepiest fiscal quarter! Look at Q2 and Q4, that's when the big things happen! That's exactly why you look YoY at Q1 trends, when there's no bells and whistles and you can see the actual state of the game. That declining number? That's what they call in the biz a "trend". Not a good one, either.

Operating costs for Kabam are buried in the stew, but here's a fun nugget:

Circled is that magic phrase you're going to hear more of when Q2 numbers roll in: "optimization of work forces."
In the UK they call it "redundancy," and it's what companies do to lower costs to try and show a profit to appease angry shareholders like me.

So, active users, downloads, player engagement hours, yadda yadda, those are all metrics that number crunchers use to sell to their bosses potential revenue, but in the end, revenue is revenue.

Netmarble wants Kabam to change this downward trend. If Crashed says they're putting more money into it, you best believe they're pointing to past results and saying "Get that." To which I say, sincerely, good luck.

But hey, don't take my (former) business analyst word for it, feel free to peruse their library of earnings reports. There's lots more numbers there, and numbers are fun!

winterthur

(negative profit numbers makes shareholders, like me, a little sad.)

Do you receive the annual report? In the segment information, there maybe Kabam's information. I saw it once but forgot where to find it now.

SummonerNR

Where is the King Arthur game at ? (the one that Kabam was initially developing)
I keep trying to find it every now and then in Apple Store, it never shows up.
(Search auto-fill loads up that text string, as if it is high in search queries from people, but even then the App itself is not available).

Even going to a different NetMarble App, and then clicking “view all other NetMarble Apps.

Is it PC based instead, or currently “invite only - preview” ?

PistolcuApa

Demonzfyre

Where is the King Arthur game at ? (the one that Kabam was initially developing)
I keep trying to find it every now and then in Apple Store, it never shows up.
(Search auto-fill loads up that text string, as if it is high in search queries from people, but even then the App itself is not available).

Even going to a different NetMarble App, and then clicking “view all other NetMarble Apps.

Is it PC based instead, or currently “invite only - preview” ?

It was bought out by Netmarble. Here is the official announcement -

Greetings Noble Knights!

We would like to remind you all that the current beta will end and servers will close on 05-31-2024 4:00 PM Pacific Time (time should be localized here: ) after which beta progress and data will be wiped while we focus on refining and improving King Arthur: Legends Rise.

One major change we want to bring to your attention is a change of Publisher from Kabam to Netmarble. As some of you may know, Netmarble, the publisher behind global hit games such as Solo Leveling: ARISE, Marvel Future Fight, The Seven Deadly Sins: Grand Cross, and Seven Knights Idle Adventure, is the parent company of Kabam, and as such, will be collaborating closely to make sure we launch the best version of this game as we can. King Arthur: Legends Rise will still be developed by Kabam, but now also supported by the extensive resources of Netmarble's publishing team who have robust experience launching games globally.

After a thorough examination, we feel that this change will best position our game for success in the future. We once again highly recommend signing up for our newsletter if you have not done so already; to subscribe to our emails visit https://playkingarthurlegendsrise.com/news/ and sign up for our newsletter at the bottom of the page. Thank you all again for your invaluable support, we look forward to sharing the next update to King Arthur: Legends Rise with you when it is ready!
@everyonerunaway

For now, it's been taken off all game stores.

peixemacaco

Lol
They have KoF games too

DNA3000

Netmarble wants Kabam to change this downward trend. If Crashed says they're putting more money into it, you best believe they're pointing to past results and saying "Get that." To which I say, sincerely, good luck

That’s probably somewhat oversimplistic. I doubt anyone would really expect MCOC to somehow return to the Covid boom numbers. If we factor those years out, it is clear that MCOC revenue has been on a steady decline, but that doesn’t mean that extrapolates indefinitely. Generally, games such as this either eventually disappear, or they stabilize at some soft landing sustainable revenue. The more realistic expectation is that MCOC stabilize somewhere around $200m USD per year than it return to the ~$300m USD per year it was generating at its peak, assuming it eventually achieves a soft landing.

Also, revenue numbers in isolation aren’t everything, for two reasons. First, they don’t tell us profitability because Netmarble does not do breakouts of per game operating costs. And second and more subtly, player engagement numbers provide very important context for revenue numbers.

Quick: what’s better: 50% more revenue and 30% fewer active players, or equal revenue and 30% more active players? Obviously, the former. Except if that becomes a trend, then the former becomes worse, because you can’t keep squeezing more revenue out of fewer players. The latter is sustainable, the former is not. So in the long run, active player numbers do matter, because they tell you where you revenue is coming from.

SummonerNR

@Demonzfyre
Yes, the basics of that I recall, although I didn’t know it was actually something players had access to even as a Beta. (thought it was still under development only)

But some of the pics above and within links seems to show King Arthur has been having downloads, etc,

So was that while it was still a Beta, and where were people getting the Beta from (before being pulled) ?

Which is why I asked, I have never seen it be available for download.

Was still always a “coming soon” under Kabam, before it went away, and never showed up under NetMarble in AppStore whenever I looked.
But thanks.

Demonzfyre

@Demonzfyre
Yes, the basics of that I recall, although I didn’t know it was actually something players had access to even as a Beta. (thought it was still under development only)

But some of the pics above and within links seems to show King Arthur has been having downloads, etc,

So was that while it was still a Beta, and where were people getting the Beta from (before being pulled) ?

Which is why I asked, I have never seen it be available for download.

Was still always a “coming soon” under Kabam, before it went away, and never showed up under NetMarble in AppStore whenever I looked.
But thanks.

There was an open beta for awhile. I'm still on the discord because it's still active for some reason. I played it a bit.