Statistical Near Impossibility

DukeZman

I opened a 5* and a 6* basic crystals back to back within 1 minute of each other. Pulled Venom from both. With nearly 300 champs to choose from, how does that even happen? That’s like a 0.0012% chance.

Average_Desi

The chance is 1 /300 . So only .3%. not an anomaly .

The chance of any champion from the crystal is .3%. so you'll have to start making posts every time you open a crystal

Bosley

Ha that's nothing! I opened 2 5-star crystals and got 2 Red Magneto....... before he was buffed

willrun4adonut

I pulled a Mojo 6* and then immediately pulled a Mojo 7* when all I needed was a Mojo for my last EoP Carina's challenge after just finishing the Tigta Carina's challenge. But it's still RNG.

DukeZman

Average_Desi said:

The chance is 1 /300 . So only .3%. not an anomaly .

The chance of any champion from the crystal is .3%. so you'll have to start making posts every time you open a crystal

Incorrect. While each crystal has its own individual probability (approx 1 in 300), the probability of pulling the same champ twice in a row becomes 1/300 x 1/300. Or 1/90,000.
But since not every playable character is in the basic pools (and I didn’t feel like googling the exact number), I picked 1/290 randomly as a guess. 1/290 x 1/290 = 0.0000119

Demo7

Unknown

This content has been removed.

DukeZman

Demo7 said:

See, that’s highly improbable. And, from a backend perspective, makes me highly suspicious that when it happens, it’s the result of some kind of temporary server side lag/latency/coding glitch where it produces the same result twice instead of a true double roll.

BeastDad

#winning

willrun4adonut

DukeZman said:

Average_Desi said:

The chance is 1 /300 . So only .3%. not an anomaly .

The chance of any champion from the crystal is .3%. so you'll have to start making posts every time you open a crystal

Incorrect. While each crystal has its own individual probability (approx 1 in 300), the probability of pulling the same champ twice in a row becomes 1/300 x 1/300. Or 1/90,000.
But since not every playable character is in the basic pools (and I didn’t feel like googling the exact number), I picked 1/290 randomly as a guess. 1/290 x 1/290 = 0.0000119

That's not the probability of pulling the same champ twice in a row. The first crystal pull doesn't have any effect on the second pull. What you listed is the chance that a specific character is pulled twice, not any character.

So what you listed is the chance of pulling Venom twice, or the chance of pulling Mojo twice, not the chance of pulling ANY champ twice. 1/300 is for any champ being pulled twice, 1/90,000 is the chance for a specific champ to be pulled twice.

WinterFields

DukeZman said:

Average_Desi said:

The chance is 1 /300 . So only .3%. not an anomaly .

The chance of any champion from the crystal is .3%. so you'll have to start making posts every time you open a crystal

Incorrect. While each crystal has its own individual probability (approx 1 in 300), the probability of pulling the same champ twice in a row becomes 1/300 x 1/300. Or 1/90,000.
But since not every playable character is in the basic pools (and I didn’t feel like googling the exact number), I picked 1/290 randomly as a guess. 1/290 x 1/290 = 0.0000119

Respectfully, you're confusing the chance of pulling Venom back to back with the chance of pulling any champion back to back

DukeZman

willrun4adonut said:

DukeZman said:

Average_Desi said:

The chance is 1 /300 . So only .3%. not an anomaly .

The chance of any champion from the crystal is .3%. so you'll have to start making posts every time you open a crystal

Incorrect. While each crystal has its own individual probability (approx 1 in 300), the probability of pulling the same champ twice in a row becomes 1/300 x 1/300. Or 1/90,000.
But since not every playable character is in the basic pools (and I didn’t feel like googling the exact number), I picked 1/290 randomly as a guess. 1/290 x 1/290 = 0.0000119

That's not the probability of pulling the same champ twice in a row. The first crystal pull doesn't have any effect on the second pull. What you listed is the chance that a specific character is pulled twice, not any character.

So what you listed is the chance of pulling Venom twice, or the chance of pulling Mojo twice, not the chance of pulling ANY champ twice. 1/300 is for any champ being pulled twice, 1/90,000 is the chance for a specific champ to be pulled twice.

Yes…you’re making my point. The fact that I didn’t specifically want venom twice does not affect the outcome statistics. You’re saying that if I *had* wanted Venom twice in a row then 1/90,000 would be my odd. But since I didn’t, but I still pulled him twice reduces my odds back to 1/300? That’s nonsensical.

Average_Desi

DukeZman said:

Average_Desi said:

The chance is 1 /300 . So only .3%. not an anomaly .

The chance of any champion from the crystal is .3%. so you'll have to start making posts every time you open a crystal

Incorrect. While each crystal has its own individual probability (approx 1 in 300), the probability of pulling the same champ twice in a row becomes 1/300 x 1/300. Or 1/90,000.
But since not every playable character is in the basic pools (and I didn’t feel like googling the exact number), I picked 1/290 randomly as a guess. 1/290 x 1/290 = 0.0000119

No. The probability of two Venoms in a row is 1/300 × 1/300.

The probability of any champion being pulled twice is 1/300.

Yesterday, I pulled Iron man from one crystal and Strom from the next. The probability is 1/300 × 1/300. So is that a statistical anomaly?

willrun4adonut

Here you go. This goes into much more depth for you.

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/319483/what-are-the-odds-of-this/p1

Average_Desi

willrun4adonut said:

Here you go. This goes into much more depth for you.

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/319483/what-are-the-odds-of-this/p1

The problem is, unless OP wants to learn, it's a statistical anomaly (😉) that they will correct their mistake. Considering that they've already delved into " true roll, lag, backend", it's unlikely.

willrun4adonut

Average_Desi said:

willrun4adonut said:

Here you go. This goes into much more depth for you.

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/319483/what-are-the-odds-of-this/p1

The problem is, unless OP wants to learn, it's a statistical anomaly (😉) that they will correct their mistake. Considering that they've already delved into " true roll, lag, backend", it's unlikely.

I can have hope though, can't I?

DukeZman

willrun4adonut said:

Here you go. This goes into much more depth for you.

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/319483/what-are-the-odds-of-this/p1

Still wrong. The probability of pulling, say, Rogue and then Venom out of 2 crystals from a pool of 300 champs is only still 1/90,000 - if we're talking about targeting that specific pairing. It is absolutely incorrect to say that pulling any random 5* and then any random 6* is the same probability as pulling a specific pairing: whether it's Venom/Venom or Rogue/Venom. If you're talking a specific pairing, then the probability is 1/90,000 if you're talking any random pairing where you don't care what the outcome is, then probability is actually 1 (100%) because you're always going to get a random 5* and then a random 6*. Pulling any two specific champs in a specific order = 1/90,000.

willrun4adonut

@DNA3000 sorry to tag you, but care to weigh in. You don't have to write an entire essay, and you can also ignore if you choose.

TotemCorruption

DukeZman said:

willrun4adonut said:

DukeZman said:

Average_Desi said:

The chance is 1 /300 . So only .3%. not an anomaly .

The chance of any champion from the crystal is .3%. so you'll have to start making posts every time you open a crystal

Incorrect. While each crystal has its own individual probability (approx 1 in 300), the probability of pulling the same champ twice in a row becomes 1/300 x 1/300. Or 1/90,000.
But since not every playable character is in the basic pools (and I didn’t feel like googling the exact number), I picked 1/290 randomly as a guess. 1/290 x 1/290 = 0.0000119

That's not the probability of pulling the same champ twice in a row. The first crystal pull doesn't have any effect on the second pull. What you listed is the chance that a specific character is pulled twice, not any character.

So what you listed is the chance of pulling Venom twice, or the chance of pulling Mojo twice, not the chance of pulling ANY champ twice. 1/300 is for any champ being pulled twice, 1/90,000 is the chance for a specific champ to be pulled twice.

Yes…you’re making my point. The fact that I didn’t specifically want venom twice does not affect the outcome statistics. You’re saying that if I *had* wanted Venom twice in a row then 1/90,000 would be my odd. But since I didn’t, but I still pulled him twice reduces my odds back to 1/300? That’s nonsensical.

1/300 × 1/300 = 1/90,000 if you’re asking for a specific champion twice.

But if you’re asking more generally—what’s the chance that whoever you pull first is the same as the second one, then:
• First pull: anything (no restriction).
• Second pull: must match the first pull, which has a 1/300 chance.

So the answer in that case is just 1/300.

If you don't care about who you get first, then it's not 1/300, it's 300/300. The odds only become relevant during the second draw when you're trying to match whom you just pulled.

Average_Desi

Probability of getting CMM - 1/300
Probability of getting Leader - 1/300
So total - 0.0012%.

Kabam needs to investigate this statistical anomaly!!!

MrSakuragi

Average_Desi said:

Probability of getting CMM - 1/300
Probability of getting Leader - 1/300
So total - 0.0012%.

Kabam needs to investigate this statistical anomaly!!!

That’s wild, game is def broken

SummonerNR

If you were to say BEFORE the pulls “Anyone but Venom, Anyone but Venom …”, specifically saying just Venom, and only Venom, then yes.

But because your point was that they were the SAME (could have been any champ that was the SAME), then it is just 1/300.

Even though you say “well, I didn’t want Venom”. Well, there are probably 280 others that you would say you wouldn’t want either (or at least 250).
So getting a duplicate of ANY of the 250 ones you wouldn’t want would agreeably be a little more rare than just 1/300, but not by that much.

Snizzbar

I think in general people aren't very good with probabilities in the real world, and also tend to overestimate their ability with statistics in general 🤷‍♂️
This issue comes up a lot because it's really two different calculations that are easily conflated - 1. pulling a specific champ twice in a row, and 2. pulling the same champ in the next crystal opening.

Toyota_2015

The chance of you pulling Venom twice in a row is equal to the chance of literally every other outcome occurring, you were just as likely to get Venom twice as you were to get Psycho-Man and then Kushala.

DukeZman

Alright, I get it and stand corrected.
Getting any two of the same champion, if I do not care what the champion is = 1/300. Because the 1st crystal is technically 300/300 — it just sets the target for the 2nd crystal; so then the only probability in play is crystal #2, trying to match the 1st crystal: thus 1/300.
However if i ONLY wanted Venom, so he was the target of both crystals, then the probability of both crystals comes into play: 1/300 x 1/300 = 1/90,000.
So even though the outcome was technically the same — double Venom — the probability jumps to 1/90,000 due to desiring a specific result in BOTH crystals.

Thanks for the statistical lesson.

Perfect_jab

They say that you have the same percent chance at pulling any champ in the crystal. If anyone actually believes that, then thats sad an will be disappointed alot. Higher chance at pulling a low tier champ an higher chance at pulling low tiers champs back to back an getting those same champs over an over again. Seen so many people argue about percentages an all of it. Never pull top tier champs over an over.

Toyota_2015

Perfect_jab said:

They say that you have the same percent chance at pulling any champ in the crystal. If anyone actually believes that, then thats sad an will be disappointed alot. Higher chance at pulling a low tier champ an higher chance at pulling low tiers champs back to back an getting those same champs over an over again. Seen so many people argue about percentages an all of it. Never pull top tier champs over an over.

You feel like there’s a lower chance of getting the champions you want because there IS a lower chance of getting the champions you want. If you want to understand what I mean, next time you open a crystal make a list of the champions you want. You’ll probably notice that the list you make will be representative of something like 30 out of the 300 possible champions in the crystal. So yeah, in that case, there’s a 10% chance of you being happy with what you get and a 90% chance of you being unhappy with what you get, but those odds are set by your expectations, not the actual code.

Nomis13

DukeZman said:

Average_Desi said:

The chance is 1 /300 . So only .3%. not an anomaly .

The chance of any champion from the crystal is .3%. so you'll have to start making posts every time you open a crystal

Incorrect. While each crystal has its own individual probability (approx 1 in 300), the probability of pulling the same champ twice in a row becomes 1/300 x 1/300. Or 1/90,000.
But since not every playable character is in the basic pools (and I didn’t feel like googling the exact number), I picked 1/290 randomly as a guess. 1/290 x 1/290 = 0.0000119

the probability of pulling venom twice in a row there is just 1/90000. however, the probability of pulling the same champ twice in a row is 1/300.

Average_Desi

DukeZman said:

Alright, I get it and stand corrected.
Getting any two of the same champion, if I do not care what the champion is = 1/300. Because the 1st crystal is technically 300/300 — it just sets the target for the 2nd crystal; so then the only probability in play is crystal #2, trying to match the 1st crystal: thus 1/300.
However if i ONLY wanted Venom, so he was the target of both crystals, then the probability of both crystals comes into play: 1/300 x 1/300 = 1/90,000.
So even though the outcome was technically the same — double Venom — the probability jumps to 1/90,000 due to desiring a specific result in BOTH crystals.

Thanks for the statistical lesson.

Awesome. Now you can join us the next time someone makes a post

JESUSCHRIST

I got a 6* Juggernaut followed by a 7* juggernaut very recently
First dupe for my 7* rank 3 juggernaut so I'm quite happy with the RNG

SirGamesBond

Theres no Probability.
It's allll rigggeedd