Blade 5* basic vs premium

moonmebaby

So...what would be the better option. 2 premium 5* blade crystals or 3 basic 5* blade crystals.

Comments

OwGss

20% chance in the two premium vs .02% chance in regular...

NinjAlan

He's referring to the unit ones I think?

NinjAlan

Zoddymam

NinjAlan wrote: »

He's referring to the unit ones I think?

dont think so. Blade is in basic 5 star on feb 13. Then on 22nd he is featured. If blade is your goal the featured will give better odds but like any crystal shehulk is waiting etc

DNA3000

NinjAlan wrote: »

Assuming the data itself is fairly clean of biases, that suggests that the odds of pulling 4* are about one in eight, and the odds of pulling 5* are about one in 40. That would suggest the odds of pulling 5* are better than the odds of pulling 4* from the PHC, which are closer to one in 100 to 120.

It could be a coincidence, but these numbers also seem consistent with a 120 entry drop table, just as the PHC numbers seem roughly consistent with a 120 entry drop table. The numbers above seem very consistent with a drop table that looks like this:

1 - 5* featured (1 entry)
2-3 - 5* non-featured (2 entries)
4-7 - 4* featured (4 entries)
8-18 - 4* non-featured (11 entries)
19-120 - 3* champion (102 entries)

The expected percentage distribution from this table would be:

5* featured - 0.83%
5* non-featured - 1.67%
4* featured - 3.33%
4* non-featured - 9.16%
3* champion - 85%

That's a pretty good fit relative to the margin for error. What's interesting to me is my analysis of PHC drops long ago seemed to suggest a 4* champion drop rate from PHCs as closer to one in 120 rather than one in 100. Maybe this is an echo of the PHC drop table.

NinjAlan

In my very limited experience (monitoring 2 alliances worth of pulls for each featured) this table seems to be extremely accurate

moonmebaby

Wow. Great graphic. Thanks guys.

TillerTheKiller

Feature