Is the drop rate even complicated than we thought?

I wanted to know what is the probability of the 2% occurring?
I am experiencing both good and bad drop rate. On my first account I pull 4* for every 50-65 phc that is 1.5%-2% chance and the probability of that is 0.02 but on my second account i have opened around 500 phc but not a single 4*. I assume the probability of 2% chance occurring is zero.
No matter the chance percentage because the probability will screw you up.

Comments

GroundedWisdom

Each Crystal you open has a 2% chance to drop a 4*. Which means there's a 98% chance not to drop one. You could open 1000 and still not get one. It's random.

Hammerbro_64

I love it how he drop rates for gold crystals are just
Gold—100%

No quantities or anything

Rap

Yes it should be broken down by gold amount.

unknown

This content has been removed.

GroundedWisdom

There is no chance over the Basic in the Featured 5*. It's an equal chance at each Champ. Therefore, it's 100% guaranteed 5*.

Rajuteda

% = 100

If there is no sample size how can one say an X amount of percent exsists?

And IF 2% is independent per crystal, then how can one know when will that 2% occur? And if its random , then there can be no percentage!!!

An archer fires an arrow and based on past sample data they deduce % probablility of hitting bulls eye which is accurate more than often even though each arrow is independent..

This whole crystal spin is a SCAM

DiablosUltimate

Rajuteda wrote: »

% = 100

If there is no sample size how can one say an X amount of percent exsists?

And IF 2% is independent per crystal, then how can one know when will that 2% occur? And if its random , then there can be no percentage!!!

An archer fires an arrow and based on past sample data they deduce % probablility of hitting bulls eye which is accurate more than often even though each arrow is independent..

This whole crystal spin is a SCAM

Algorithm for 2% is "if random number between 1 and 100 is 2 or lower, then [4star] else [garbage]", so even though the "dice roll" (random number generator) is random, the odds define possibility of it landing on 4star.

Rajuteda

How are 100 numbers coming up in the first place? There are more than 100 champs in the roll out..

So once again % has been completely thrown off the window...its just there for show piece and really dosent mean anything becuase kabam can still give 2*s without being fair and held accountable

GroundedWisdom

I'm not sure you understand how RNG works.

DiablosUltimate

Or even what % is lmao. I only broke first part of code which decides if its 4star or not, coz there is 2% chance for that and thats what you been asking for. 2 out of 100 is 2%, thats where number 100 comes from. If it lands on 4star then another roll takes place, which decides which champion it is

alpha_PI_omega

guys its like a slot machine. the percentage is computed on What Number? You can open a million and got no 4*.
If we buy 9,300 unit=297£. this is likely 46.6 grandmaster crystal. In every crystal the change to have a 5 star champ is 1%. Does it mean anything? even you spend 1000$ or 717£ always think 1% to every crystal is not worthy. Even i will spend 1,000,000$ still i have 1% change. to get a 5 star.