You have a better chance of falling to your death...

I found this funny, and just wanted to remind everyone thinking about going for IMIW how terrible the odds are. You have a .84% chance to die by falling

Your odds of pulling a 5* IMIW from the Infinity Protocol Crystal are .4%. The odds of pulling a 4* from the Nanite Crystal are .85%, so about as likely as you falling to your own death! Good luck to everyone going for him, and please be careful around ledges...

Comments

  • DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 11,225 Guardian
    The lifetime odds of dying from falling appear to be about one in 170, or about 0.6%. Your odds of pulling IMIW in your entire lifetime depend on how many crystals you open. If you want to pull IMIW before you fall to your death, I would recommend opening at least a couple of crystals, or adding safety bars to your home.
  • Johnnyblaze23Johnnyblaze23 Posts: 43
    Odds are the same, no? Whether he/she opens one or a hundred, it'll still be .4% each time
  • BitterSteelBitterSteel Posts: 2,946 ★★★★★
    Odds are the same, no? Whether he/she opens one or a hundred, it'll still be .4% each time

    The odds of pulling at least one iron man from an increasing number of crystals quite clearly increases. The odds are not 0.4% to pull one iron man from 100 crystals.
  • AxeCopFireAxeCopFire Posts: 1,115 ★★★
    Odds are the same, no? Whether he/she opens one or a hundred, it'll still be .4% each time

    There's always one of these guys
  • Johnnyblaze23Johnnyblaze23 Posts: 43
    So if I flip a coin once, my chance at heads is 50%. But if I flip it 100 times, my chances go up? Thanks for the math
  • BitterSteelBitterSteel Posts: 2,946 ★★★★★
    edited May 2018
    So if I flip a coin once, my chance at heads is 50%. But if I flip it 100 times, my chances go up? Thanks for the math

    You are just proving how ignorant you are by not reading any of the posts properly. Do you believe that if you flip a coin 1 million times that the chances of you getting at least 1 head is 50%? No, it’s an astronomically high chance.
  • Primmer79Primmer79 Posts: 2,954 Guardian
    edited May 2018
    So if I flip a coin once, my chance at heads is 50%. But if I flip it 100 times, my chances go up? Thanks for the math

    If you flip a coin once, the odds are 50%.
    If you flip a coin a second time, the odds are 50% each.

    The odds of the coin landing on tails TWICE is 25%.
    The odds of the coin landing on heads AT LEAST ONCE is 75%.

    We're talking about fractions of a percent in this actual situation, but a single outcome's % can increase in a series of independent flips.

    Edit: You're welcome for the math. Please call me a nerd.
  • Ronin916Ronin916 Posts: 85
    Technically the chances of you landing on heads at least once goes up with each coin flip. But the odds of every individual coin flip remain at 50%.

    So the odds of you pulling an IMIW from any individual crystal are all the same, but if you open 10, the odds of you pulling him once from those 10 go up with each one. But so do the chances of economic instability and ruining your entire life
  • JC_JC_ Posts: 518 ★★★
    I am $200 poorer and 20 three star champs richer. :neutral: first and last time I whale out like that, I was desperate to upgrade my defense.
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 11,225 Guardian
    Odds are the same, no? Whether he/she opens one or a hundred, it'll still be .4% each time

    The odds of pulling IMIW per crystal are the same no matter how many you open. But the odds of getting him at all increase if you open more crystals. The OP (humorously) was comparing the lifetime odds of dying by falling with the odds of pulling IMIW in a single opening. The more proper comparison is comparing the lifetime odds of dying by falling with the lifetime odds of pulling IMIW across all the crystal openings you attempt.
  • Johnnyblaze23Johnnyblaze23 Posts: 43
    JC_ wrote: »
    I am $200 poorer and 20 three star champs richer. :neutral: first and last time I whale out like that, I was desperate to upgrade my defense.

    Spend $200 more. You have better odds now!
  • TaxTax Posts: 76
    Dear math nerds: What are the odds of getting the feature 5* twice in four crystals?
  • BitterSteelBitterSteel Posts: 2,946 ★★★★★
    JC_ wrote: »
    I am $200 poorer and 20 three star champs richer. :neutral: first and last time I whale out like that, I was desperate to upgrade my defense.

    Spend $200 more. You have better odds now!

    You don’t understand statistics. You are twisting the words that people are saying to you. You don’t get better odds per crystal, you get better odds for getting AT LEAST one iron man from more crystals. Please, just do some research, educate yourself. It almost hurts.
  • EnderDraco58EnderDraco58 Posts: 958 ★★
    Normally, I'm a nerd/techie who would look into this and criticize you for being wrong. But I'm feeling lazy so I'll just let you have your fun.

    Good luck pulling IMIW!
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 11,225 Guardian
    JC_ wrote: »
    I am $200 poorer and 20 three star champs richer. :neutral: first and last time I whale out like that, I was desperate to upgrade my defense.

    Spend $200 more. You have better odds now!

    No, he doesn't. The odds of pulling IMIW out of 40 crystals is higher than the odds of pulling him in twenty, but if he buys another twenty after opening the first twenty, the odds of pulling IMIW in that twenty are the same as they were in the first twenty. That's because we know what the odds of pulling IMIW in the first twenty are now that those crystals were opened: the odds are now zero, because we actually know what those contents are.

    The odds of a coin toss being heads is fifty fifty, but if you flip a coin once and see that it is tails, then the odds of that coin toss being heads is now zero, because we know what the flip is. Statistics is a way of summarizing what we don't know. There are no odds associated with things we already know happened. The odds of the past happening as we witness it happening are exactly 100%. The odds of history happening any other way are zero.
  • BitterSteelBitterSteel Posts: 2,946 ★★★★★
    DNA3000 wrote: »
    JC_ wrote: »
    I am $200 poorer and 20 three star champs richer. :neutral: first and last time I whale out like that, I was desperate to upgrade my defense.

    Spend $200 more. You have better odds now!

    No, he doesn't. The odds of pulling IMIW out of 40 crystals is higher than the odds of pulling him in twenty, but if he buys another twenty after opening the first twenty, the odds of pulling IMIW in that twenty are the same as they were in the first twenty. That's because we know what the odds of pulling IMIW in the first twenty are now that those crystals were opened: the odds are now zero, because we actually know what those contents are.

    The odds of a coin toss being heads is fifty fifty, but if you flip a coin once and see that it is tails, then the odds of that coin toss being heads is now zero, because we know what the flip is. Statistics is a way of summarizing what we don't know. There are no odds associated with things we already know happened. The odds of the past happening as we witness it happening are exactly 100%. The odds of history happening any other way are zero.

    I fear that explaining this concept to him is equivalent to smashing your head against a brick wall.
  • BigTimeBigTime Posts: 246 ★★
    STOP BUYING EXTREMWLY OVERPRICED CRYSTALS WITH EXTREMELY BAD ODDS
  • The_RikerpThe_Rikerp Posts: 59
    Never again will I buy featured crystals. I had the units to buy them, and got all 3*’s. Maybe my luck would increase if.... nope, I just blew my act 5 unit stash. At least I didn’t spend cash.
  • Blax4everBlax4ever Posts: 683 ★★★
    Trying to explain the difference between probability and odds is not easy unless you have strong grasp of both.
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 11,225 Guardian
    Blax4ever wrote: »
    Trying to explain the difference between probability and odds is not easy unless you have strong grasp of both.

    I think you mean probability and statistics. Odds are just a different way to state probability. Three to one odds is the same thing as 25% probability. But the difference between probability and statistics is pretty subtle.
  • MaldorovMaldorov Posts: 19
    Let me say this, i don't care about IMIW, i duped my 5* blade on the 3rd crystal. Granted I'm uncollected and spent 1500 units on 5 of the 3*-5* crystal for IMIW, also got and duped 3*s of PM and CG
  • SnizzbarSnizzbar Posts: 1,830 ★★★★★
    DNA3000 wrote: »
    Blax4ever wrote: »
    Trying to explain the difference between probability and odds is not easy unless you have strong grasp of both.

    I think you mean probability and statistics. Odds are just a different way to state probability. Three to one odds is the same thing as 25% probability. But the difference between probability and statistics is pretty subtle.

    You're almost right. Odds can be calculated from probability, and vice versa, and they are often used as synonyms in conversation, but mathematically they are not the same.
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