Black Widow 3% Evade? Cool Story Bro

DTMelodicMetalDTMelodicMetal Posts: 2,799 ★★★★★


3% evade chance working as intended
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  • DTMelodicMetalDTMelodicMetal Posts: 2,799 ★★★★★
    edited August 2018
    CapWW2 wrote: »
    Lmao wait until you play the 200,000 PI Black widow in LOL. She evades a ton. Like og spidy or Nc 😂

    Yep she's much worse in LOL. I still chose to fight her 3 times, Venompool was much worse. At least LOL Black Widow doesn't nullify parry.
  • CapWW2CapWW2 Posts: 2,901 ★★★★
    CapWW2 wrote: »
    Lmao wait until you play the 200,000 PI Black widow in LOL. She evades a ton. Like og spidy or Nc 😂

    Yep she's much worse in LOL. I still chose to fight her 3 times, Venompool was much worse. At least LOL Black Widow doesn't nullify parry.

    Agreed. I had to force heavy attacks agaisnt her. Insanity!!!
  • Hammerbro_64Hammerbro_64 Posts: 6,402 ★★★★★
    I’m not even in LOL but I know EX champs have a higher chance to evade. All champs have a chance to evade in LOL
  • DTMelodicMetalDTMelodicMetal Posts: 2,799 ★★★★★
    I’m not even in LOL but I know EX champs have a higher chance to evade. All champs have a chance to evade in LOL

    Yes that's why we said BW is worse there. 10% chance to evade all attacks.
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 11,766 Guardian
    dparm wrote: »
    It's way worse with Ultron, especially in harder game modes or in Alliance War. There are times when he will evade several attacks in a row. Explain to me how that is even possible if he evades every 7 seconds.

    It has been discussed in the past, but it seems Ultron doesn't evade every seven seconds literally, because if you think about it that doesn't really work in a game: if you aren't attacking at that precise instant Ultron can't evade anything. Instead, what seems to happen under the hood is that every seven seconds Ultron gets an invisible passive evade buff that lasts about a second or so. During that window he is capable of evading any attack. So if you attack Ultron in rapid succession at approximately the moment he triggers his "every seven second" evade, he can evade a couple times in a row from that one evade trigger.
  • DTMelodicMetalDTMelodicMetal Posts: 2,799 ★★★★★
    Hey OP,

    This looks normal to me, unless I'm missing something. 3% Chance to Evade per hit does not mean she will only evade 3 out of 100 attacks, or even a guarantee that she would evade 1 in 1000. This is not how probability works. With a 3% chance per attack, there's a slim chance that you could throw 100 attacks, and she could evade each and every one of them.

    It's best not to treat Black Widow like a Champion that can't evade. This is something I see come up a lot, but treat her the same way you treat Spider-Man, or Nightcrawler. Champions that can suppress Ability Accuracy, or negate Evasion (Ice-Man!) are great choices. I know that this isn't always possible in Dungeons, however, as you have your team of 3 and can't spy ahead.

    That clears things up. Probability can be hard to understand, studying for that and permutations for the GRE was worse than going to the dentist.
  • BadroseBadrose Posts: 675 ★★★
    DNA3000 wrote: »
    Badrose wrote: »
    No, 3% means a very, VERY RARE chance. The truth is lately Black Widow is evading like spiderman in every part of the contest. In that video she's not even evading so much.

    No, that's not what it means. 3% chance means, on average, about one evade every 33 attacks. In the video posted, BW evaded apparently three times in about 33 attacks. That's unlucky, but not ridiculously so.

    So what, that's exaclty what I've said. I was referring to Mike post who said that " With a 3% chance per attack, there's a slim chance that you could throw 100 attacks, and she could evade each and every one of them."
  • Haji_SaabHaji_Saab Posts: 5,123 ★★★★★
    PolarisCV wrote: »
    Also worth mentioning that 12 of those 33 hits came while she was stunned. So evaded 3 times out of 21 hits (including multi hit specials). Roughly 14%

    May be she wouldn't have evaded in the next 80 hits ... small samples produce skewed results in determination of odds
  • RagamugginGunnerRagamugginGunner Posts: 2,210 ★★★★★
    Remember when Spidy was evading when he wasn't supposed to and it took a full sig BW to prove to Kabam that he was actually bugged? Good times.
  • 10or_Strong10or_Strong Posts: 987 ★★★
    @Kabam Miike is correct in his assertion. It is a very slim chance, but remember that the 3% chance to evade is applied anew to EVERY ATTACK. So, IN THEORY, you could see 100 attacks with each evaded. OP's video, as someone else pointed out, is just an example of being unlucky with those odds. We see the same kind of dispersion of luck with crystals. Take the Goldpool event, when you had a slim chance of opening Goldpool from the golden crystals. Some people came onto the forum to share that they opened hundreds of crystals without a single Goldpool, while others opened 10 and duped him. It's the same principle here.
  • iRetr0iRetr0 Posts: 1,240 ★★★★
    The game seems to use independent events of probability rather than dependent events
  • GrimmbananaGrimmbanana Posts: 711 ★★
    Hey OP,

    This looks normal to me, unless I'm missing something. 3% Chance to Evade per hit does not mean she will only evade 3 out of 100 attacks, or even a guarantee that she would evade 1 in 1000. This is not how probability works. With a 3% chance per attack, there's a slim chance that you could throw 100 attacks, and she could evade each and every one of them.

    It's best not to treat Black Widow like a Champion that can't evade. This is something I see come up a lot, but treat her the same way you treat Spider-Man, or Nightcrawler. Champions that can suppress Ability Accuracy, or negate Evasion (Ice-Man!) are great choices. I know that this isn't always possible in Dungeons, however, as you have your team of 3 and can't spy ahead.

    of course it would lol
  • BitterSteelBitterSteel Posts: 3,254 ★★★★★
    Anyone who says this situation is impossible really doesn’t understand statistics
  • BitterSteelBitterSteel Posts: 3,254 ★★★★★
    DNA3000 wrote: »
    dparm wrote: »
    It's way worse with Ultron, especially in harder game modes or in Alliance War. There are times when he will evade several attacks in a row. Explain to me how that is even possible if he evades every 7 seconds.

    It has been discussed in the past, but it seems Ultron doesn't evade every seven seconds literally, because if you think about it that doesn't really work in a game: if you aren't attacking at that precise instant Ultron can't evade anything. Instead, what seems to happen under the hood is that every seven seconds Ultron gets an invisible passive evade buff that lasts about a second or so. During that window he is capable of evading any attack. So if you attack Ultron in rapid succession at approximately the moment he triggers his "every seven second" evade, he can evade a couple times in a row from that one evade trigger.

    Yep, for example if you use Drax his double medium can trigger 2 evades from ultron since the attacks both land within this window
  • GrimmbananaGrimmbanana Posts: 711 ★★
    DNA3000 wrote: »
    dparm wrote: »
    It's way worse with Ultron, especially in harder game modes or in Alliance War. There are times when he will evade several attacks in a row. Explain to me how that is even possible if he evades every 7 seconds.

    It has been discussed in the past, but it seems Ultron doesn't evade every seven seconds literally, because if you think about it that doesn't really work in a game: if you aren't attacking at that precise instant Ultron can't evade anything. Instead, what seems to happen under the hood is that every seven seconds Ultron gets an invisible passive evade buff that lasts about a second or so. During that window he is capable of evading any attack. So if you attack Ultron in rapid succession at approximately the moment he triggers his "every seven second" evade, he can evade a couple times in a row from that one evade trigger.

    Yep, for example if you use Drax his double medium can trigger 2 evades from ultron since the attacks both land within this window

    you hit drax he gets mad and he has fury and destroyssssssssss
  • CFreeCFree Posts: 491 ★★
    The game seems to use independent events of probability rather than dependent events

    That’s because they are independent events. Right?
  • VoltolosVoltolos Posts: 959 ★★★
    edited August 2018
    Verzz wrote: »
    Anyone who says this situation is impossible really doesn’t understand statistics

    Do you mean BW evading 100 attacks in a row? My quick math says that it is about a 1 out of 1.94*10^153 so I guess if that is possible for you then I salute your optimism.

    No he means evading 3 out of 21 attacks
  • BitterSteelBitterSteel Posts: 3,254 ★★★★★
    Verzz wrote: »
    Anyone who says this situation is impossible really doesn’t understand statistics

    Do you mean BW evading 100 attacks in a row? My quick math says that it is about a 1 out of 1.94*10^153 so I guess if that is possible for you then I salute your optimism.

    That wasn’t what I was talking about, but yes it applies too. It’s possible for a 3% event to occur 100 times. It’s possible for 1000 times. It’s possible that a 3% event can occur infinitely.

    The word you’re looking for is improbable. Not impossible.
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