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Repeatedly pulling the same class from 5* Awakening Gems

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Comments

  • ArylAryl Posts: 1,302 ★★★★
    MΛSSΛCRE said:

    Aryl said:

    MΛSSΛCRE said:

    I’m done debating but I find humor in all the keyboard warriors rallying to aid one another at this point I feel like I’m just helping you get your fix

    I'm an advocate for evidence and truth.

    I don't care who agrees with me or not since I have empirical fact on my side.

    The patent doesn't have anything to do with the BS in this thread.

    And, AG RNG is 1 in 6. Period.
    So three periods? Two numerical periods and one grammatical period?
    Derp
  • DemonzfyreDemonzfyre Posts: 20,959 ★★★★★
    MΛSSΛCRE said:

    Aryl said:

    MΛSSΛCRE said:

    I’m done debating but I find humor in all the keyboard warriors rallying to aid one another at this point I feel like I’m just helping you get your fix

    I'm an advocate for evidence and truth.

    I don't care who agrees with me or not since I have empirical fact on my side.

    The patent doesn't have anything to do with the BS in this thread.

    And, AG RNG is 1 in 6. Period.
    So three periods? Two numerical periods and one grammatical period?
    Dude. You lied again. You said you were done.
  • MΛSSΛCREMΛSSΛCRE Posts: 101 ★
    Demonzfyre said:

    MΛSSΛCRE said:

    Aryl said:

    MΛSSΛCRE said:

    I’m done debating but I find humor in all the keyboard warriors rallying to aid one another at this point I feel like I’m just helping you get your fix

    I'm an advocate for evidence and truth.

    I don't care who agrees with me or not since I have empirical fact on my side.

    The patent doesn't have anything to do with the BS in this thread.

    And, AG RNG is 1 in 6. Period.
    So three periods? Two numerical periods and one grammatical period?
    Dude. You lied again. You said you were done.
    And I gave you one more fix and you have yet to thank me.
  • DemonzfyreDemonzfyre Posts: 20,959 ★★★★★
    MΛSSΛCRE said:

    Demonzfyre said:

    MΛSSΛCRE said:

    Aryl said:

    MΛSSΛCRE said:

    I’m done debating but I find humor in all the keyboard warriors rallying to aid one another at this point I feel like I’m just helping you get your fix

    I'm an advocate for evidence and truth.

    I don't care who agrees with me or not since I have empirical fact on my side.

    The patent doesn't have anything to do with the BS in this thread.

    And, AG RNG is 1 in 6. Period.
    So three periods? Two numerical periods and one grammatical period?
    Dude. You lied again. You said you were done.
    And I gave you one more fix and you have yet to thank me.
    Thank you for your insanity.
  • DemonzfyreDemonzfyre Posts: 20,959 ★★★★★
    MΛSSΛCRE said:

    Demonzfyre said:

    MΛSSΛCRE said:

    Aryl said:

    MΛSSΛCRE said:

    I’m done debating but I find humor in all the keyboard warriors rallying to aid one another at this point I feel like I’m just helping you get your fix

    I'm an advocate for evidence and truth.

    I don't care who agrees with me or not since I have empirical fact on my side.

    The patent doesn't have anything to do with the BS in this thread.

    And, AG RNG is 1 in 6. Period.
    So three periods? Two numerical periods and one grammatical period?
    Dude. You lied again. You said you were done.
    And I gave you one more fix and you have yet to thank me.

  • MΛSSΛCREMΛSSΛCRE Posts: 101 ★
    Everything that has been commented on here this evening is insanity. It’s an online mobile game forum. It’s insane that any of us chose to spend our Sunday evening here.
  • ArylAryl Posts: 1,302 ★★★★
    MΛSSΛCRE said:

    Aryl said:

    MΛSSΛCRE said:

    I’m done debating but I find humor in all the keyboard warriors rallying to aid one another at this point I feel like I’m just helping you get your fix

    I'm an advocate for evidence and truth.

    I don't care who agrees with me or not since I have empirical fact on my side.

    The patent doesn't have anything to do with the BS in this thread.

    And, AG RNG is 1 in 6. Period.
    So three periods? Two numerical periods and one grammatical period?

  • DemonzfyreDemonzfyre Posts: 20,959 ★★★★★
    MΛSSΛCRE said:

    Everything that has been commented on here this evening is insanity. It’s an online mobile game forum. It’s insane that any of us chose to spend our Sunday evening here.

    What comments? This is the first one of the thread? Whatchu talking bout Willis
  • MΛSSΛCREMΛSSΛCRE Posts: 101 ★
    Goodnight
  • DemonzfyreDemonzfyre Posts: 20,959 ★★★★★
    MΛSSΛCRE said:

    Goodnight

    We've heard that before. 😒
  • ArylAryl Posts: 1,302 ★★★★
    MΛSSΛCRE said:

    Goodnight

    Kisses
  • Suros_moonSuros_moon Posts: 454 ★★★
    Lormif said:

    UmbertoDelRio said:

    Wedgemonster said:

    Lormif said:

    They have said it is completely random, and no it does not happen "far to many times to be anecdotal", because it could happen a thousand times and as long as there are enough people to counterbalance that account it is still anecdotal, or even what is known as an outlier.

    4 times in a row is (1/6)^4, which is only 1 in 1296, considering the thousands of open AGs that is not that odd.

    Seems like I taught you how to calculate probability in this comment you chose not to acknowledge. So I guess that’s good. Care to do so?

    *clears throat*

    The drop chances in this game still aren't cumulative. It is absolutely irrelevant how minor the odds for "pulling storm 5 times in a row" are, because that's not what the game is calculating.

    You have 5 crystals, each being their own distinct and seperate pull/event and each with their own set odds.

    Pulling storm in the first crystal does not influence the odds of pulling her in the second, third, fourth or fifth crystal.
    They are not cumulative.
    You can calculate the probability of pulling 2 champs from independant crystals, even though the odds themselves are not related. The chances of pulling from a crystal may not be related to one another, but since they should still follow a standard distribution it would be 1/N where in is the number of champs in the pull raised to the number of pulls.

    you can use dice to make it simple. The chance of rolling a die and getting a 6 is 1/6, but the chance of rolling 2 dice and getting 2 6s is 1/36, (1/6)^2.. This can be proved with a table of possible outcomes:

    (1, 1) (1, 2) (1, 3) (1, 4) (1, 5) (1, 6)
    (2, 1) (2, 2) (2, 3) (2, 4) (2, 5) (2, 6)
    (3, 1) (3, 2) (3, 3) (3, 4) (3, 5) (3, 6)
    (4, 1) (4, 2) (4, 3) (4, 4) (4, 5) (4, 6)
    (5, 1) (5, 2) (5, 3) (5, 4) (5, 5) (5, 6)
    (6, 1) (6, 2) (6, 3) (6, 4) (6, 5) (6, 6)

    I am not going to create a table for possible outcomes for pulling 5 storms in a row because that would be absurd.

    Now you can compare this to something like pulling the same suit from a deck 2x in a row, where the odds are dependent. The first is 1/4, the second is 12/51, so 1/4 * 12/51 or about 1/17 (~5.9%).

    So to be clear, just because the individual odds are independant in no way means that you are unable to calculate accumulative odds.
    True but the law of large numbers states that you are very unlikely to get an accurate picture of the probability from the measly amounts of crystals we open at a time as 1 outlier will completely scew what the results are in duch a small sample.

    Also the people are forgetting that they are only accounting for their INDIVIDUAL pulls instead of the entire comminity. If you could show me data for the hundreds of thousands of people opening awakening gems and nit just scattered stories on a forum that people only come to to complain about outliers then maybe you could argue with some validity (though the data probably wouldnt show you what your conspiracies atre claiming).

    As an example if i opened 2 AG's and one was science and one was skill, it doesnt mean they have a 50% chance each. Just means you havent opened enough to align with the statistics. Anyone who has mass opened sig stones will know the spread is about even but when you open 3-6 there very well could be a skew because you have so few pulls to work with.
  • Kabam LyraKabam Lyra Posts: 2,936 ★★★
    Aldac said:

    Has anyone ever had a response from Kabam on this, or have they ever stated anything on the forums? It happens too frequently for too many players to be merely anecdotal.
    Was happy with my first couple of Mutant gems as they’re such a good class (and still holding out hope for Omega Red someday) but just opened my 4th in a row and it really feels odd. So many others have had the same experience and we can’t all be imagining it. I’m no programmer but surely there is some way for Kabam to tweak the algorithm to stop players pulling the same gems every single time? 60-70 dollars is a lot of money guys- I’m aware we take that risk when we buy, but come on.

    We've answered a few times. Drops are random and aren't affected by what you have in your inventory or what Champions you have.
This discussion has been closed.