**Mastery Loadouts**
Due to issues related to the release of Mastery Loadouts, the "free swap" period will be extended.
The new end date will be May 1st.
Due to issues related to the release of Mastery Loadouts, the "free swap" period will be extended.
The new end date will be May 1st.
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guess you’re unfamiliar with the concept.
*Proceeds to buy cavs/gmc with an even lower chance
While you should be able to pull 1 in 5, 1 in 12, or 1 in 24... when you ACTUALLY start pulling, the only thing that truly matters is the odds on the pull you are doing at each exact time. Your odds never truly increase or decrease from the pull you are conducting, which is 1 in 5.
As you actually pull, and provided that each time you pull a 4*... the odds will change as to whether you will pull another 4* or 5* with the last remaining pulls. At best, it is an educated guess as to when the 5* might come. The only constant is the 20%, so as you ACTUALLY pull your odds never change from 1 in 5. I had discussions in length about this with an Engineer from Georgia Tech. He was the one that changed my way of thinking on probability. While the math seems to favor the average person over consecutive pulls at a glance, what truly matters to each independent person is what will happen in actual practice.
Then factor whether the 1 in 5 is the actual rate our not. We have no way to prove that without imperical data. It is the odds that Kabam states the code allows a given chance. Unlike a coin where you can see there are only 2 sides or roulette where you know the exact number of likely outcomes because you actual see all the likely outcomes, the 1 in 5 as stated is based on a claim that the algorithm allows it.
Now, this is a team that quite regularly, accidentally creates bugs... it is very easy for there to be a error in the code and the odds are greater or lesser than what is posted. We are all guessing based on trust that the 1 in 5 is truthful. It is not like a coin where is physically see there are only 2 outcomes.
Not to mention that you also have to look at the fact that you may want a specific champion. Would it be better to save 15,000 for a better chance at then 5* in a featured crystal... or spend those 4* shards for a 20% chance at a random 5* that has a larger odds of not being one you wanted?
At the end of the day, what matters is each individuals position in the game and what they are trying to achieve. For me, I have 146 5* champs with virtually all the champs available in the basic pool. I am better off at saving my 5* shards from duped 4’s for pulling a featured 5* rather than waste them on a 1 in 5 with a greater chance of getting a champ I don’t want.
The legendary crystal is more for players wanting to increase their rosters rather than focus on getting a particular champ.
(1 per fortnight would get me to sign up ASAP)
But what’s currently on offer has very little value to a 1m base hero rated account like mine.
The best deal is the $7.99AUD monthly unit card - get 135 units ASAP and then 20 each day for 30 days.’
That’s the smartest deal Kabam have ever offered and I thank them for it each month.
But will agree about the Legendary crystal that's over priced
People saying you get more 5* shards on the basis you get a 5* are missing the point that most players are hunting specific champions for either clearing content or competitiveness in AW or Prestige. The best chance for a specific character is the featured crystal for 15k 5* shards. How many people spent year hunting Starlord? One guy in my alliance finally duped his after 4 years of playing. Ironically, SL isn’t even that coveted anymore... so he laughed about his “luck”.
While over the course of 4 years, he should have duped SL. The odds got worse and worse with each passing basic pool available champions increase. It came to the point that you now have a greater chance of pulling something you do not want versus a champ you do want. Look at the posts of complaints on horrible pulls from the basic crystals that appear regularly on the forums.
At 5k shards, the deal is better for those that want to expand their 5* rosters. However, if you are hunting for a specific champ and already have an extensive roster, it is better to collect 5* shards in opening 4* crystals to use when the champ you are looking for is in the 5* featured crystal. Even then, the odds are still fickle. I have yet to pull Doom from the current one in order to dup him... even after 30 attempts. While statistically I had a strong chance of pulling him at least once, I did not. I am not upset about it, it just that the odds didn’t work out in my favor.
No probabilities or equations can determine when I will get my dup... it is all random and will always be subject to the odds of the crystal I am opening at that exact moment. Will I get him? Eventually... When? No one knows. My odds will be better with the current 5* featured for 15k shards versus when he will eventually enter the basic pool.
The problem with probabilities is they create assumptions that you will get the champ. However, there is a chance you may not. People tend to get more and more emotional with each pull that they don’t get their desired outcome. Yet on paper, the numbers say the should.
The moral of the story is do not wager more than you intend to lose... and accept the outcome regardless of the results. But never false assume your odds are ever greater than the advertised rates even upon multiple attempts. There are anomalies and outliers that will contradict in both ways. Even making what appear to be sound bets, you still are subject to the Gambler’s Fallacy. The outcomes are completely random and there are no patterns.
Just know you have a 1 in 5 for a 1 in 140 chance for a specific champ should you be in the search for a particular champ. Unless you are willing to accept the high chance of using 2.5x 4* shards for a 20% chance at much higher chance of getting a 5* champ you do not want, the buyer should beware.
If they buy the Legendary crystal instead of trading for 5* shards, they are *guaranteed* to get more ISO and Gold. For people who are constrained on both, that should be a significant consideration. On top of that, they have an overwhelmingly high chance of getting at least as many and possibly more 5* champions.
If they think that's a bad deal, maybe that explains why they are short of ISO and Gold.
The Legendary crystal does have a guaranteed result: four champs verses one. They might be four 4* champs, or a mix of 4* and 5* champs, but you will definitely get four champs. And that will always generate more ISO and Gold than one 5* champ, because 5* duplication generates the same ISO and Gold as 4* duplication. So four > one.
If you only care about getting guaranteed 5* champs, such that you're fine with getting guaranteed 5* champs even if 99% of people who gamble will do as good or better than you, then the 4* -> 5* trade is the best deal. If you care about getting the most 5* champs over time, and you're willing to take the chance that you're not going to be among the <1% of worst luck players, then the Legendary crystal is the better trade. If you're concerned about ISO and Gold, then the Legendary crystal is better than the 4* -> 5* trade. Just buying 4* champs is even better, but it reduces your 5* champion acquisition to the worst possible level out of all the options.
Paying 2,5 times the price of a 4 star for a crystal that give you 80% chances to get a 4 star champion is too high !
Lower the price to 3000 4 stars shards and make the legendary crystal a Nexus legendary crystal. that would be a good deal
Nexus crystal does not give you 50% chance to get a 5 stars champion as every one of the three possible champions of the nexus crystal have the same probability (80% for a 4 stars and 20% for a 5 stars) but at least that give you the choice of the champion you will have.
It is the “Focus Crystal” that would first roll whether it is a 4* or a 5* and then gives you 3 choices all of either 4* or all at 5* to choose from.
Having this black market Legendary made into a “Focus” crystal would be nice though (if that is what you really meant, even if you seemed to confirm that is not what you meant), so that at least on the 20% chance that it rolls a 5* you could at least then choose WHICH 5* you would want from among 3 choices. (hopefully at least one of the 3 would be a halfway decent choice as a 5*).
for example, my sigil expires in 2 days. since the last time i renewed, i should have had access to, for example, 6k 5 star shards. now i get 5k. this also applies to everything else in the store. i PAID for the access for the amounts and quantities at the beginning of the month, and now at the end of the month, they have reduced what i can get.
its not hard to wrap your mind around, its simple math. kabam has given me less than i agreed to pay for, the product they advertised to me is not the product i received.
they should have done the responsible thing and made it so all the new changes go into effect AFTER you renew if you were on the old system.
why is this hard to understand?