Question on Nexus Daily Crystal

RiderofHellRiderofHell Posts: 2,812 ★★★★★
Since its ending on the 29th and Doom is being added to Basic next tuesday and mystic daily will be tomorrow. My question is will doom be in daily mystic nexus crystal next friday?

If he is i am willing to risk the 5 bucks lol

Comments

  • He will be added to the crystal, if you save it till then
  • Crumb3307Crumb3307 Posts: 307 ★★
    Is that confirmed? I thought once you buy/obtain a crystal, the champion pool is locked.
  • ArondightArondight Posts: 125

    Since its ending on the 29th and Doom is being added to Basic next tuesday and mystic daily will be tomorrow. My question is will doom be in daily mystic nexus crystal next friday?

    If he is i am willing to risk the 5 bucks lol

    You were gonna buy a cheeseburger with that 5$ anyway. :D
  • GamerGamer Posts: 6,578 ★★★★★
    Crumb3307 said:

    Is that confirmed? I thought once you buy/obtain a crystal, the champion pool is locked.

    That’s only from the 5 star fractured cystal since this cystal is look with the champions pool
  • DrZolaDrZola Posts: 3,545 ★★★★★
    edited February 21
    Different question: is the nexus three different bites at the apple—meaning, do you get what essentially amounts to three spins (meaning more like a 14.3% 5* chance)?

    Or is each set of three champs curated to preserve the relative odds of the crystal?

    If so, how does this work? Sets of three are predetermined? Is it even possible to get all 5*’s?

    I tend to think the latter is accurate, but I can’t remember seeing anything specific.

    Dr. Zola
  • awesomesauceawesomesauce Posts: 340 ★★
    DrZola said:

    Different question: is the nexus three different bites at the apple—meaning, do you get what essentially amounts to three spins (meaning more like a 14.3% 5* chance)?

    Or is each set of three champs curated to preserve the relative odds of the crystal?

    If so, how does this work? Sets of three are predetermined? Is it even possible to get all 5*’s?

    I tend to think the latter is accurate, but I can’t remember seeing anything specific.

    Dr. Zola

    Its 3 separate rolls technically, and each roll has a flat 5% chance for a 5* champion.
  • DrZolaDrZola Posts: 3,545 ★★★★★
    edited February 21

    DrZola said:

    Different question: is the nexus three different bites at the apple—meaning, do you get what essentially amounts to three spins (meaning more like a 14.3% 5* chance)?

    Or is each set of three champs curated to preserve the relative odds of the crystal?

    If so, how does this work? Sets of three are predetermined? Is it even possible to get all 5*’s?

    I tend to think the latter is accurate, but I can’t remember seeing anything specific.

    Dr. Zola

    Its 3 separate rolls technically, and each roll has a flat 5% chance for a 5* champion.
    Interesting...so with each roll an independent shot at a 5*, that means the crystal odds are a good bit greater than 5%? Assuming of course that the odds on each independent roll are 5% each...

    Dr. Zola
  • mostlyharmlessnmostlyharmlessn Posts: 855 ★★★
    edited February 21
    DrZola said:

    Different question: is the nexus three different bites at the apple—meaning, do you get what essentially amounts to three spins (meaning more like a 14.3% 5* chance)?

    Or is each set of three champs curated to preserve the relative odds of the crystal?

    If so, how does this work? Sets of three are predetermined? Is it even possible to get all 5*’s?

    I tend to think the latter is accurate, but I can’t remember seeing anything specific.

    Dr. Zola

    Without direct knowledge I would guess for speed sake, it's N, N+1, N+2

    So in the Array of champs in the crystal, the first champ would be the random start position in the array, the next 2 two would be the next champ, and the champ after that... So more like your grew 3 mouths and each mouth took a bite at the same time....

    I do think it's a special crystal that has pre-configured grouping of champs so you are most likely to get 3 of the same * levels

    But this is just a guess.... we really don't know.
  • DrZolaDrZola Posts: 3,545 ★★★★★

    DrZola said:

    Different question: is the nexus three different bites at the apple—meaning, do you get what essentially amounts to three spins (meaning more like a 14.3% 5* chance)?

    Or is each set of three champs curated to preserve the relative odds of the crystal?

    If so, how does this work? Sets of three are predetermined? Is it even possible to get all 5*’s?

    I tend to think the latter is accurate, but I can’t remember seeing anything specific.

    Dr. Zola

    Without direct knowledge I would guess for speed sake, it's N, N+1, N+2

    So in the Array of champs in the crystal, the first champ would be the random start position in the array, the next 2 two would be that Champ, next champ, and the champ after that... So more like your grew 3 mouths and each mouth took a bite at the same time....

    But this is just a guess.... we really don't know.
    Like a champ ticker tape?

    Dr. Zola
  • awesomesauceawesomesauce Posts: 340 ★★
    i don't fully understand statistics and probability (don't claim to be a mathematician)
    however, i do understand "RNG"; as having developed games and programming.

    So lets say the chances of rolling on a single crystal are as follows:
    5% = 5*
    15% = 4*
    80% = 3*

    (I am pretty sure those are the actual values of the crystal without looking)

    Now let's just say to keep things simple there are 150 basic-pool champs for each * rarity.

    So the game will do basically "two rolls" for a single crystal. (which may or may not be how their code is setup, it might be 1 roll with some skewed values) but for sake of sanity, let's say it is a two-roll system.
    First roll will be a value between 1-100.
    1-80 = 3* champion
    81-95 = 4* champion
    96-100 = 5* champion

    Once the rarity has been established, next comes the actual champion roll
    1-150
    where (for instance)
    1 = gamora
    2 = bpcw
    3 = IMIW
    etc etc


    I would go as far as to guess these nexus crystals *PROBABLY* eliminate a portion of that 2nd roll, to avoid pulling "two of the same champ in a single nexus crystal"
    So if your first option was a 4* gamora, and you happen to get another 4* roll, that now brings it down to 1-149 possible rolls.

    Now beyond that for actual statistics and probability, each roll still has a flat chance of 5% for a 5* champion, however there are 3 rolls which arguably you could say the "chance" of a 5* is higher than 5%. (though your chance for a 3&4* are higher, too)
  • Nexus chance of a 5* (assuming prior reply of 5% stated drop rate is correct) should be ...

    1st choice being a 5* is 5%
    Chance that 2nd choice is 5* without having a 5* in spot before it would be 5% times the 1st choice odds of that one NOT being a 5*. So 0.05 * 0.95 = 0.0475 or 4.75%.
    So far thru 2 choices odd of either one being a 5* are thus 9.75% (so odds that neither one are a 5* are 90.25%).

    Lastly, chance that 3rd choice is 5* without having a 5* in either spot before it would be 0.05 * 0.9025 = 0.045125 or 4.51 (and a quarter hundredth) %.

    So overall odds of getting at least one choice in Nexus crystal being a 5* champ is in all 14.26%

    I know there is some Permutation/Combination style formula for achieving this, but above is basically in layman’s terms.

    Hopefully Kabam's stated DROP RATE for this crystal is 5% each (on a “PER CHOICE” basis), and has not factored in these calculations and lowered the chance of each individual choice of the 3 down to a little below 2% for each
  • DrZolaDrZola Posts: 3,545 ★★★★★

    Nexus chance of a 5* (assuming prior reply of 5% stated drop rate is correct) should be ...

    1st choice being a 5* is 5%
    Chance that 2nd choice is 5* without having a 5* in spot before it would be 5% times the 1st choice odds of that one NOT being a 5*. So 0.05 * 0.95 = 0.0475 or 4.75%.
    So far thru 2 choices odd of either one being a 5* are thus 9.75% (so odds that neither one are a 5* are 90.25%).

    Lastly, chance that 3rd choice is 5* without having a 5* in either spot before it would be 0.05 * 0.9025 = 0.045125 or 4.51 (and a quarter hundredth) %.

    So overall odds of getting at least one choice in Nexus crystal being a 5* champ is in all 14.26%

    I know there is some Permutation/Combination style formula for achieving this, but above is basically in layman’s terms.

    Hopefully Kabam's stated DROP RATE for this crystal is 5% each (on a “PER CHOICE” basis), and has not factored in these calculations and lowered the chance of each individual choice of the 3 down to a little below 2% for each

    That’s what the OP above implies, more or less. I’m not sure why the crystal itself doesn’t say that the odds are ~14% if that is the case.

    If it is a flat 5% overall, that would suggest the odds per result might be somewhat different.

    How these crystals work exactly is unclear to me. If there’s a official explanation somewhere, I’d appreciate a link.

    Dr. Zola
  • NeotwismNeotwism Posts: 1,796 ★★★★★
    I've purchased the nexus daily crystal every day it's been available and still haven't gotten a single 5*. I don't think the odds increase with each crystal. I think it's a flat 5% chance, but that's just from my observation after not seeing any 5* after a bunch of crystals.
  • DrZolaDrZola Posts: 3,545 ★★★★★
    edited February 21
    Neotwism said:

    I've purchased the nexus daily crystal every day it's been available and still haven't gotten a single 5*. I don't think the odds increase with each crystal. I think it's a flat 5% chance, but that's just from my observation after not seeing any 5* after a bunch of crystals.

    That’s probably true.

    But how does it work then? 5% chance you get a single 5*? Never multiples? It’s not a big deal, but if they are going to market them as something out of the ordinary, they should probably explain how it “peers into multiple dimensions.”

    Here’s my best guess: it’s a GMC that fills with 3*’s unless you hit the 5% 5* chance, in which case it populates the other two fields with 3/4* champs. If you don’t hit the 5% 5* chance but hit the 4* instead, it populates with a 4* and two 3*’s. Best odds are a trio of 3*’s.

    Dr. Zola
Sign In or Register to comment.