**Mastery Loadouts**
Due to issues related to the release of Mastery Loadouts, the "free swap" period will be extended.
The new end date will be May 1st.
Due to issues related to the release of Mastery Loadouts, the "free swap" period will be extended.
The new end date will be May 1st.
Can someone please calculate the odds?
Deadlygamer98
Posts: 743 ★★★
I pulled magik twice in 2 different crystals. They were opened at different times. Cab someone calculate the odds of this?
4
Comments
Odds of pulling some champ twice is n/n^2 = 1/n
n is the number of champs in crystal
10 crystals.
2 of those were Beardo who i already have max sig.
oh well.
**** happens.
The problem here is selection bias. Suppose I roll five six-sided dice and they all come up sixes. What are the odds of that happening? It actually depends. Suppose I said that I rolled those dice over and over again *until* they came up all sixes. What are the odds of *that* happening? You'd need to know how many times I rolled over and over to know what the odds of that happening were overall. Of course, the odds of those dice coming up all sixes *on that specific roll* are calculable: they are one in 7776. But the odds that I would see this eventually in this circumstance is basically 100% if I do it long enough. If you don't know how long I did this, you can't say how improbable the eventual roll was.
You pulled Magik twice in a row. It is possible to calculate the odds of this happening in two consecutive crystal openings (other people have done that in the thread already). But what are the odds that you would have seen something like this today, or this week, or this month? That would depend on how many crystals you've opened.
The problem is you were not aiming to pull Magik twice. You just opened crystals and your brain happened to notice this coincidence at this moment in time. But the odds of *something* catching your attention out of all the crystals you open start to approach 100% if you open enough crystals.
This is something they teach people when it comes to statistical analysis. You have to be extremely careful about calculating probabilities after the fact. The way I explain this to people is the odds of something happening that has already happened is 100%, because it happened.
Actually, no: no one can.
The problem here is selection bias. Suppose I roll five six-sided dice and they all come up sixes. What are the odds of that happening? It actually depends. Suppose I said that I rolled those dice over and over again *until* they came up all sixes. What are the odds of *that* happening? You'd need to know how many times I rolled over and over to know what the odds of that happening were overall. Of course, the odds of those dice coming up all sixes *on that specific roll* are calculable: they are one in 7776. But the odds that I would see this eventually in this circumstance is basically 100% if I do it long enough. If you don't know how long I did this, you can't say how improbable the eventual roll was.
You pulled Magik twice in a row. It is possible to calculate the odds of this happening in two consecutive crystal openings (other people have done that in the thread already). But what are the odds that you would have seen something like this today, or this week, or this month? That would depend on how many crystals you've opened.
The problem is you were not aiming to pull Magik twice. You just opened crystals and your brain happened to notice this coincidence at this moment in time. But the odds of *something* catching your attention out of all the crystals you open start to approach 100% if you open enough crystals.
This is something they teach people when it comes to statistical analysis. You have to be extremely careful about calculating probabilities after the fact. The way I explain this to people is the odds of something happening that has already happened is 100%, because it happened.
@Deadlygamer98 😑
Few months before I open battlechips and got three 3* punisher at the same time. So odd.
Last week I just have enough shards to pull my 11th 6* crystal. Before that I told myself “pls give me something good, no more iron fist”......and then the pull stop at Iron Fist. Odd.