**Mastery Loadouts**
Due to issues related to the release of Mastery Loadouts, the "free swap" period will be extended.
We have not set an end-date for the new period, but we will update this banner when we have more information.
Due to issues related to the release of Mastery Loadouts, the "free swap" period will be extended.
We have not set an end-date for the new period, but we will update this banner when we have more information.
Comments
24 champs in a featured crystal...out of 5 crystals last featured I got Emma frost x3 and Morningstar x2.
If Emma represents the # 10 and MS # 15 out of those 24 numbers then it’s like having 5 spins and spinning the number 10 ..3 times and the number 15 ..2 times out of 5 spins and out of all those numbers lol
Idk man ,..those odds seem highly unlikely to me
I have my doubts...and will always.
I've had lousy luck with lots of other crystals & often moan about it & Kabam. I've actually create a web app where I manage my champs & I have built a crystal puller. It tells me the odds of getting a new champ, awakening or a double dupe & I can open X amount of crystals to emulate what I might pull. I've used actually used a "Random" rather than "Rigged" NG & it's interesting to see the results & how they vary, even when opening big batches of crystals.
To be honest I have probably been too critical of Kabam's RNG although I am sure that their weighting isn't even for every champion in the crystal. I am sure I've have read that Kabam have confirmed this.
However it's very frustrating that there is so much luck involved. e.g. I ideally need Aegon to finish off LOL. I could wait years & open 100s of crystals & not get him. I know someone who opened 10 feature Aegon crystals & got 2x 6* Aegon & a 5* Aegon. I've open about 15 & got a 5* Sentry & have got 3x 5*s from 57 featured cavaliers & two thirds have been 3*s.
Ideally they should address this. Maybe there should be guaranteed odds - e.g. you buy 10x featured crystals & you're guaranteed one 5*.
Kabam have talked about creating a 5* crystal where you choose 30 champs to go into it. If that actually happens it will be massively better.
If it’s as simple as something like P(A) x P(B) x P(C)—using approximate numbers for champs in each pool and assuming the first two were duals—then around1/300,000 to 1/400,000. Which is to say not ridiculous.
Dr. Zola
It does suck when it works like that—I empathize.
Dr. Zola
Me and some of my alliancemates open crystals in hoard, once a month. I got Sorc Supreme twice in a row, then MODOK, then Kingpin all within the same day. My alliancemate got Annihilus thrice in a row in the featured. Then another one got Winter Soldier in a basic, twice... in a row. Yea, I know it's possible with RNG, it's just that everytime this happens my eyes get squinty like Leonardo De Carpio's. Lol.
Does it happen *more* often than it should? I'd like to say no, but this is one of the few places where I wouldn't make a definitive statement and the data is relatively silent. When I did analysis of huge amounts of PHC crystal openings, there was the barest tiny hint of a correlation signal in the data, but not strong enough to say it couldn't just be random. And I wouldn't trust my own anecdotal observations on something that subtle.
I will say that any bug or anomaly that could cause someone to open two in a row in rapid-fire openings can't really affect openings widely separated, like by a day, even if they are consecutive openings for the player. There's no bug that does that, and there's no reason for the game code to deliberately do that, even if Kabam was of a mind to manipulate crystal odds. So that's almost certainly just luck.
And if you’re hoping for a “good” champion, assuming that “good” champions are evenly distributed between classes, the odds haven’t changed at all
Dr. Zola
The naive calculation would be 1/55 * 1/55 * 1/140, or one in 423500. However, this is where the actuarial rubber meets the road. Three Hoods in a row would be one in 423500. But had I pulled three Dooms in a row, or three Caps in a row, I'd still be posting the same thing. The noteworthy thing in this case is three champs in a row. Which is one in 7700.
The concept of noteworthiness in statistical analysis is a complex thing. But you can illustrate the importance of the concept by opening three crystals in a row and then asking what the odds of that specific sequence coming up is. No matter what you pull, the odds of that specific sequence coming up is exactly the same. Hood followed by Hood followed by Hood has the exact same odds as Hulk followed by Magik followed by Storm. Since every champ has the same chance of appearing (if it is in the crystal) the odds for all sequences must be identical. But nobody posts their Hulk followed by Magik followed by Storm openings, because nobody cares. And I didn't post my opening because Hood was coming up, it was because it was three of a kind. Any three of a kind would have generated the same "result" - namely me preserving and commenting on the opening.
This is *not* an easy thing to wrap your mind around, and it has to do with the fact that probability is extremely well defined when it comes to events that haven't happened yet. If, before I opened any crystals you asked what the odds of opening three Hoods in row were, that would be one in 423500. But probability is not quite so well defined when the events have already happened. Asking the same question *after* I open crystals is more tricky, because the odds of that happening are now 100% - because it happened. The question you're really asking is "what would the odds have been before you opened the crystals" but you yourself have been affected by the opening: you're asking about Hood, because you now know Hood comes up. In effect, your question has been contaminated by knowledge of the future. And removing that contamination to do the right calculation keeps statisticians up at night.