Does anyone know the math of getting herc from featured 6? Also how are champions selected!

What are the odds on getting herc from featured 6? does anyone know the math!

Hey MCOC forums!

Does anyone know what the chances are on pulling hercules out of the current featured 6?
I've opened 23, got 0 featured best pull is medusa (nr 19 and 21, 23 ) and karnak on 22.

Rest are guilly 4 times, as gamorra, some cyclops, DD, joe, etc.

Does anyone have the math on this?

And when is the champion selected, when crystal is bought?
When you spin and "tap" ?
When set in the wheel, or when popped any insight helps, i'm looking into any superstition pep/pop 5 times in, tap at 3 or 5 nothing seem to work xD

Comments

Lorddrew

Also side note, i opened 35 featured 5, no herc, got peni twice there!

and 5 rocket raccoon, the visual is just a tease! saw a few 6* and 5* herc just after my "duds" several times. brutal!

unknown

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Lorddrew

The odds are the same for all champs

oddly, your comment is hopefull, with a bitter taste tho

"just bad rng?"

unknown

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DRTO

Well there's 24 champs in the crystal, so you have a 1/24, or about a 4% chance to pull Hercules

And there's no superstition or secret method to getting the champ you want. Once you click on the crystal it has already decided what champ you're gonna get, the reel is nothing but an animation. It's all RNG nothing else to it

MrSakuragi

My assumption is equal chance for each champ. Could be wrong though.

Bad RNG? I got Herc on my 2nd attempt.

Lorddrew

My assumption is equal chance for each champ. Could be wrong though.

Bad RNG? I got Herc on my 2nd attempt.

NGL, this is making me real jealous

StevieManWonder

Like others said, it’s roughly a 4% chance to pull any given champ in the pool. Sounds like you just got unlucky. I pulled two Hercs in 8 crystals

Lorddrew

same, experience here tho, seems that 3 ppl in my ally got herc (even dub) in first 5, 6 star featured and 5*,
Was thinking is it me, my account, method of openings etc.

Scarcity27

Well you can always try different methods to open crystals. The champion is selected when you 'tap to stop' while spinning, or when you hit 'open crystal' while popping.

Rudolph_Raindeer

Like others said, it’s roughly a 4% chance to pull any given champ in the pool. Sounds like you just got unlucky. I pulled two Hercs in 8 crystals

From Where do you know there is an equal change to pull every champ i the wheel? I know people commonly assume it is 100/24 = ~4%, but I have never seen Kabam confirm this.

Lorddrew

Like others said, it’s roughly a 4% chance to pull any given champ in the pool. Sounds like you just got unlucky. I pulled two Hercs in 8 crystals

Spin or pop? What time did you open etc? I’m really thinking it’s me, my pulls has been disastrous.

Lorddrew

Well you can always try different methods to open crystals. The champion is selected when you 'tap to stop' while spinning, or when you hit 'open crystal' while popping.

About this,, if you start the spinning animation there is a first champion, I saw Hercules there a few times as first choice. Does this mean I would pull herc if I popped?

StevieManWonder

Like others said, it’s roughly a 4% chance to pull any given champ in the pool. Sounds like you just got unlucky. I pulled two Hercs in 8 crystals
Spin or pop? What time did you open etc? I’m really thinking it’s me, my pulls has been disastrous.

Spin, I opened one on Cyber Weekend, three a few days after, and then another three another few days after that. I don't remember when I opened the eighth.

StevieManWonder

Like others said, it’s roughly a 4% chance to pull any given champ in the pool. Sounds like you just got unlucky. I pulled two Hercs in 8 crystals
From Where do you know there is an equal change to pull every champ i the wheel? I know people commonly assume it is 100/24 = ~4%, but I have never seen Kabam confirm this.

While it has never been confirmed that each champ in the Featured has an equal chance of being pulled (at least to my knowledge) Kabam has said in the past that every champ in the Basic has an equal chance so it is reasonable to assume that the same is true for the featured.

Lorddrew

Thank you for reply, would be nice if anyone can confirm a thread on chances of featured.(by a thread or comment from kabam)

for now it's my bad luck on RNG, opened 20ggc, 5k 6* shards, no luck there.
It's like a theme , 37 5* featured, and no herc aswell. making me insane

Annyhow this post can be closed! thanks again for the reply's.

CoatHang3r

Their chances are equal unless it’s noted in the drop rates. The following statement is not limited to any type of crystal but covers all crystals wether phc or featured.

Kabam states, “Specific Champions do not have a higher drop rate than any other Champion unless otherwise noted in the drop rates on the crystal.”

unknown

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Lorddrew

number 26, venompool third time from this crystal, burned out. 2 bad the ones we want we dont get.

Scopeotoe987

@DNA3000

DNA3000

What are the odds on getting herc from featured 6? does anyone know the math!

Hey MCOC forums!

Does anyone know what the chances are on pulling hercules out of the current featured 6?
I've opened 23, got 0 featured best pull is medusa (nr 19 and 21, 23 ) and karnak on 22.

Rest are guilly 4 times, as gamorra, some cyclops, DD, joe, etc.

Does anyone have the math on this?

And when is the champion selected, when crystal is bought?
When you spin and "tap" ?
When set in the wheel, or when popped any insight helps, i'm looking into any superstition pep/pop 5 times in, tap at 3 or 5 nothing seem to work xD

Every champion in the featured crystal has the same chance to drop, so one in twenty four.

The way champion crystals work is every champion crystal has a reward table that is frozen into it. What you actually get is determined randomly when you open the crystal. So for example, if the featured crystal contains twenty four different champions, that set of twenty four is baked into the crystal. That set is going to be the same set whether you open that crystal today, tomorrow, or ten years from now. But until you open it, the game doesn't pick one.

There's a special case of this: the basic pool. When a champion crystal has a chance to drop a champion from the basic pool of champs, that fact is baked into the crystal. But the basic pool itself changes over time as champions are added. So if you buy a 5* basic crystal today, but hold it for a year, when you open it the champion you get will be picked from among the 5* basic pool as it exists at that moment in time. You could get a champ that did not exist when you bought the crystal, but was added to the game, then added to the basic pool, while you were holding the crystal.

Most people believe that the crystal drop is determined at the moment you tap the crystal if you are spinning it, or when the game auto taps the crystal if you let it spin out, or at the moment you open the crystal if you open directly. The reason for this belief is that if you happen to get a champion that is not yet in your roster you will get a notification of a new champ. That notification highlight pops onto your screen on or just after you tap the crystal, but before the crystal stops spinning. That implies your game already knows the result before the crystal stops spinning, but this never happens before you tap the crystal to stop it (unless you let it spin out, in which case it happens automatically eventually). Another way to see this effect is to log into two different accounts in the same alliance: the alliance window will tell everyone else what you got after you tap but before the crystal spinning stops.

A common misconception is that random chance is usually fairly "even." Like if every champ has an equal chance to drop we shouldn't see four of one and none of another. But actually random chance generates such clusters fairly often. If you think about it, if every champ has the same chance to drop, it would be incredibly unlikely if you got exactly one of every champ. You say you opened 23 and didn't get any of the featured champs. There are six featured champs. So the odds of pulling one of them in every spin is 6 out of 24 or 1 in 4. That means the odds of not pulling one of them is 3 in 4. The odds of not pulling a featured in 23 spins is (doing the math) (3.4)^23 ~= 0.0013 or about 0.13%. This is one in 747. It is unlikely, but it is also about the same chance as pulling Weapon X out of a GGC. Unlikely, but out of thousands of players opening featured crystals, it is bound to happen to someone.

Ghostboytjie

@DNA3000 technically theres a 100% chance to pull 1 of 24 champs. Each champ has 4% chance to be pulled (all are even) and then ontop of that theres a 4% chance FROM the 4% chance to pull a SPECIFIC champ right? So around 0.0016 for herc. If im correct?

Rasilover

Idk just open one and you MIGHT get Hercules just like me

AverageDesi

DNA3000 technically theres a 100% chance to pull 1 of 24 champs. Each champ has 4% chance to be pulled (all are even) and then ontop of that theres a 4% chance FROM the 4% chance to pull a SPECIFIC champ right? So around 0.0016 for herc. If im correct?

No. It's still a 4% chance to pull herc.

Replace 24 with 2 and herc with heads in a coin. By your method you would get P(heads) to be 1/4. But it is in fact 1/2 in a single toss

Mqc19

1 in 24 everytime you open one it resets to the same odds

DNA3000

@DNA3000 technically theres a 100% chance to pull 1 of 24 champs. Each champ has 4% chance to be pulled (all are even) and then ontop of that theres a 4% chance FROM the 4% chance to pull a SPECIFIC champ right? So around 0.0016 for herc. If im correct?

No, the fact that each champion has a ~4% chance to show up means literally that there's a 4% chance for Herc to show up, a 4% chance for Peni to show up, a 4% chance for Nebula to show up, etc. So there's no second step after that to determine the chance for Herc to show up. His chance is the same 4% as every other champ (1/24 ~= 0.04167 or about 4.167%).

Champ_Z

Didn't get herc, but did pull guillotine 7 times from the 6* featured. So that's something

altavista

@DNA3000 technically theres a 100% chance to pull 1 of 24 champs. Each champ has 4% chance to be pulled (all are even) and then ontop of that theres a 4% chance FROM the 4% chance to pull a SPECIFIC champ right? So around 0.0016 for herc. If im correct?

I think you are thinking of the Featured cavalier crystals here. The Cavalier crystals have that increased chance of pulling that featured champ, and if the champion is already in the basic pool, then it is the chance in basic pool plus featured chance. Although I may be mistaken.

@DNA3000 is right on probability math. Each crystal has a 1/24 chance of pulling a specific champion, but when you’re talking about multiple crystals then the terminology is about odds. The crystals remain independent of each other (1 opening doesn’t affect the next), but the odds show how unlikely/likely you are to get specific outcomes.

Lorddrew

I'm over 40 in featured 5 this sucks! thanks @DNA3000 for giving some insights.
TBH, it's given me new perspective on the game, not going hard anymore and just going to play cassually.

Lorddrew

PS featured 6, and 5. atleast featured 5 I got most of the featured but herc.