**WINTER OF WOE - BONUS OBJECTIVE POINT**
As previously announced, the team will be distributing an additional point toward milestones to anyone who completed the Absorbing Man fight in the first step of the Winter of Woe.
This point will be distributed at a later time as it requires the team to pull and analyze data.
The timeline has not been set, but work has started.
As previously announced, the team will be distributing an additional point toward milestones to anyone who completed the Absorbing Man fight in the first step of the Winter of Woe.
This point will be distributed at a later time as it requires the team to pull and analyze data.
The timeline has not been set, but work has started.
There is currently an issue where some Alliances are are unable to find a match in Alliance Wars, or are receiving Byes without getting the benefits of the Win. We will be adjusting the Season Points of the Alliances that are affected within the coming weeks, and will be working to compensate them for their missed Per War rewards as well.
Additionally, we are working to address an issue where new Members of an Alliance are unable to place Defenders for the next War after joining. We are working to address this, but it will require a future update.
Additionally, we are working to address an issue where new Members of an Alliance are unable to place Defenders for the next War after joining. We are working to address this, but it will require a future update.
Comments
I’m not sure what that does to the numbers, but 500 matches for a 33% win rate is excessive. Even the 50% win rate is 6+ matches a day for 28 days, which isn’t feasible for anyone who wants to do any other content. Plus that’s only to get into the gladiator circuit. Leaving you with no way to progress there.
What did I just read, Professor? 😂
I think that @BitterSteel ’s idea of a 2:1 ratio would probably make it feel a bit more user friendly in terms of advancement for the more average players, and judging by the rank cutoffs the target is for most people to end up in the circuit.
That being said, in terms of advancement, it should get easier as time goes on as the better players/rosters advance out of the Victory Track.
They marketed and placed out the rewards on this thing badly. This season format is very similar to the way Hearthstone does their seasons. Basically, the tiers are just supposed to separate you out over the course of the season. You are supposed to be able to relatively rapidly rise up to about the proper tier where you'll win about 50% of games. And then with some effort, improvement and luck, you can maybe scrap your way up another tier or two. You keep playing for that chance of improvement, because the game is fun, but also for the ongoing rewards associated with playing a few matches a day (which they've also kept here). But the big rewards are supposed to come at the end of the season, based upon the tier you were able to reach.
Hearthstone has a lot more tiers. And a lot more players. They also run their season longer. So I'm not sure exactly how it should balance out to be appropriate here, and I'm guessing Kabam hasn't worked that out either.
If its balanced properly, less than 1% of players should actually reach that Gladiator circuit. Less than 30% should probably get higher than Plat.
The big problem as I see it is just that they presented this thing like everyone is supposed to get to the Gladiator circuit. They loaded all the rank rewards up there, and like you've said, for most people its going to take a prohibitively long number of matches to get there. What they should have done is trusted the tier system to separate people out, and loaded the rank rewards on the various tier levels. Gladiator shouldn't even be a thing anyone thinks about except for the most massively skilled players.
But I think if they can figure out the balance on the rewards, it really could work well.
There's also the "paid tier" rewards issue associated with the marks, but that's another problem for another post.
One "would think" that your win rate would start a bit higher in bronze against a likely more mixed to lower difficulty field, and by the time you hit platinum and diamond, would lower as you face a field strong enough to get there... so it may be that you start with a 75% win rate, but it declines say 10% per tier as you progress.
I recognize this is an assumption... and my coefficients are totally made up... but I think its more realistic than say being the same percentage the entire journey (unless of course you are some godly player or a modder where the probabilities are like 99% decreasing to 90%)... but even modders eventually face other modders, and will sometimes lose.
Thanks to MCOC Kam (or Kam MCOC) for being brave enough to double check these calculations.
I seriously wonder if they expected to try and control it to around this number or want more to progress into this bracket. If I were to play this mode and I couldn’t make it out of the Victory Track at all over 4 weeks I would be extremely discouraged to play this in the future.
But I think this would be a good opportunity to consider a discussion of the finer points of Monte Carlo Markov estimation. Or actually, the simulation inverse of that, but let the math Ph.Ds worry about that. Let's let the computer do all the work, in other words. We simply write a program that implements the trophy state and the win probability for each fight, and iterate a couple million times to estimate the average matches required to reach a particular amount of trophies before promotion. The advantage of doing this is that not only can we analyze much more complex scoring systems, we can also attempt to determine how strategic choices influence the outcome. For example, what's the best use of shields? We can attempt to calculate this directly, or we can just let the computer try every possible option until we find the best one. Fun is fun, but I vote the computer.
Also, random chance means no one is going to see these numbers precisely, some players will see shorter journeys and some will see longer ones. The idea behind these kinds of numbers is to give people an idea of the average cost, not predict what their own journey will cost. We can't make predictions like that, neither in the game nor anywhere else in life, but people still have to make decisions based on probability and risk, not on certainties.
I think it is important to state explicitly that calculations like this don't "assume" what a player's win rate will be, or how it will change over time. That's a misconception of what numerical analysis like this does, or is intended to do. If I say that some mutual fund averages a 6% return on investment, what does that actually mean? Mathematically, it means a lot, but unless you actually know a lot of math, that meaning is hidden from you. If I were to present a table that says that this means if you started with 1000 dollars, you'd have 1060 in a year, 1338 in five years, 1791 in ten years, and 3207 in twenty years, I am *not* assuming someone is going to hold that fund for twenty years. I am trying to show what the *meaning* of "6% return" is, by projecting that meaning over longer periods of time. A 6% return per year is, in some sense the same thing as a 220% return in twenty years. Six sounds small, two hundred sounds like a lot, but those are the same return just examined over different time windows.
These kinds of analyses attempt to show what certain numbers mean in other contexts that might have more intuitive context. The context is designed to be illustrative, not predictive.
Season is 30 days long. 188 matches is then 6.3 a day. Match takes what, 8 minutes on average? Makes about 50 minutes of playing this game mode every day. Can do 4 matches from a full charge, so unless you are using items or money, you'd need 2 sessions. Using about 94 energy every day.
I do not want to grind this game that much. For me, about 60 ish matches in a season would be ideal. Roughly 2 a day, pretty close to what gets me the full bi-daily 5 match rewards. If I could get near-ish to my equilibrium point by 50 matches, and the reward I get to at that point is decent enough to make it worthwhile, this thing is golden, it'll become my favorite mode. If I can't get anything useful by that point, I probably won't play it. I'm a decent, maybe a bit above average player, looking at the maths I think that'd get me about mid-high gold.
That's also the reason this math may not fit here, as the probability to go from one state to another is actually dependent on time basically. If people could play for some long period of time, we'd end up with all players but N in the top tier, and 1 player for each of N tier that is not top. Wich is actually another great reason to go back to common leaderboard, wich I like better for many reasons
Also, 60 energy is enough for 5 matches, as first 4 would usually take enough time to get back some energy for one more fight.
Doesn't help when you're entering the fight with 37 seconds left.
But in general though, it’s getting so much tougher to get something out of this now.