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What are the chances of pulling back to back champs?

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Comments

  • Speeds80Speeds80 Posts: 2,008 ★★★★
    I've actually seen a mail
    From a kabam support team address this question from
    Someone who pulled 3 identical
    Champs From phcs from memory and they said there actually was an algorithm to Encourage duping champs which was designed to act in our favour, the amount of people In my alliance who've awakened someone with a gem then duped them next crystal would suggest that algorithm is in play there too.
  • CodornasCodornas Posts: 542 ★★
    eh92amlfvfie.png
    2x2hnvu2qo3f.png

    Iron Patriot - Iron Patriot - Gambit - Iron Patriot

    What are the odds?

    At least angela is good
  • tutyimutyitutyimutyi Posts: 326
    There is a chance for this pull thereotically,but not in a reality,with normal random generator.even from 20 heroes,the odds are very low,to pull the same,2 times after each other.here we are talking about much bigger numbers,more than 100,if it is a 4*.even from a phc,we get the same 2* heroes 2 times in row so many times,that is just super sick.with a broken,or manipulated algorythm,everything is possible.
  • KestrelleKestrelle Posts: 441 ★★
    tutyimutyi wrote: »
    There is a chance for this pull thereotically,but not in a reality,with normal random generator.even from 20 heroes,the odds are very low,to pull the same,2 times after each other.here we are talking about much bigger numbers,more than 100,if it is a 4*.even from a phc,we get the same 2* heroes 2 times in row so many times,that is just super sick.with a broken,or manipulated algorythm,everything is possible.

    Actually, it's not as strange as you think, especially given the number of opportunities. People have to remember that pulling the same **** champ two times in a row has the exact same odds as pulling gwenpool and then pulling hyperion.
  • tutyimutyitutyimutyi Posts: 326
    1st of all,there is a much higher chance to pull a crappy hero,than a good one,otherwise the players are gonna get the new and op heroes much easier,ergo they spend much less.if more people has a strong roster,also they spend less,they can do the harder contents much easier,so better to give them iron patriot and luke cage,with the explanation:this is just rng!very easy to try real random generator simulators on the internet.you never going pull the same numbers from 80-100 numbers 2 times in a row.there is one more thing.why the apple created this new rule about the loot box mechanism?where they bored?i do not think so.
  • SvainSvain Posts: 453 ★★
    I pulled crossbones from 4* crystals 3x in a row over the holidays. No joke
  • LeNoirFaineantLeNoirFaineant Posts: 8,638 ★★★★★
    edited January 2018
    I pulled back to back Luke Cage and back to back AA in the month of December. I'm not complaining since I now have a duped 5* AA but I've gotta think that's pretty improbable
  • tutyimutyitutyimutyi Posts: 326
    That is nice congratulation.i would like to have youre luck mate.agent venom and cyclops are the last 2 five stars:S
  • LeNoirFaineantLeNoirFaineant Posts: 8,638 ★★★★★
    tutyimutyi wrote: »
    That is nice congratulation.i would like to have youre luck mate.agent venom and cyclops are the last 2 five stars:S

    Just pulled Kamala after exploring the last chapter of the uncollected quest so it's not all good luck lol.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 36,234 ★★★★★
    zero7 wrote: »
    (1/78)X(1/78)=1/6084
    pretty unlikely!

    Yeah there's no multiply on that. Just twice at 1/78.
  • CoatHang3rCoatHang3r Posts: 4,965 ★★★★★
    edited January 2018
    People make me sad. The odds of pulling a champion back to back are 1/(number of champions in pool)
  • KestrelleKestrelle Posts: 441 ★★
    One thing to consider is that people always complain about duping champs back to back using only two opportunities. Why only two? Pick a random pull and examine the pull before AND after. There are two opportunities for any individual pull. Go a step further...consider the odds of back to back champs in ten pulls? Twenty? Now multiply by the number of players. It's not just likely to happen fairly regularly, it's practically assured
  • ContestOfNoobsContestOfNoobs Posts: 1,454 ★★★★
    @Bahamut

    u saw it on reddit...because im the same person who posted it.

    o_o!
  • AquarDragon65AquarDragon65 Posts: 189 ★
    Kid in my Alliance... his very 1st 5* was Hulk.

    A week later he completed his 2nd 5* crystal... Hulk!

    Insane!!! Cool... but Insane!!!

    So... if 2.6% is what the math says (seems high but OK)... then more power to ya.

    Still his only 5*!
  • Dr_ARCHerDr_ARCHer Posts: 125 ★
    edited January 2018
    The odds of pulling any champion twice consecutively is 1/78 (assuming there are 78 champs in the pool, and all champs have the same odds).

    Now, if we have 7800 forum contributors, we would see 100 posts complaining about back to back pulls.
  • PalanthraxPalanthrax Posts: 918 ★★★★
    I popped 2 5 star crystals last month and got Star Lord x 2, see the post and screenshot below:

    https://www.reddit.com/r/ContestOfChampions/comments/7iqd51/duped_my_starlord_twice/

    The chances had to be astronomically low.

    icmhlx307o8p.png
  • serfi7serfi7 Posts: 9 ★
    I am sure that the odds to obtain some characters instead to others it is not the same. In my experience, I have also multi accounts and I often saw the same kind of characters. 6 months ago when I decided to stop to play in allies with my first account I opened 4 accounts. Now it is easy to grow accounts It is enough to take the free prizes.
    So I got 10-15 4* in any account. It is strange but I have many characters that are present in the different accounts.
    Sometimes I opened the same character in a row changing account. I am a mathematician I am completely agree with contestofnoobs. It is possible to make different calculations to see that in this games there are some ''coincidences'' with very low odds if you assumed that the probability to find a fixed character is the same.
    Also if you assume that the odds to find a 4 star from a pch, or a 4 class catalyst from a map crystal are fixed you obtain strange results. I am pretty sure that the odds to find any items in this game it is not fixed, probably depends on time
  • BahamutBahamut Posts: 2,307 ★★★★
    ContestOfNoobs wrote: »
    @Bahamut

    u saw it on reddit...because im the same person who posted it.

    o_o!

    *Gasps Dramatically*
  • JRock808JRock808 Posts: 1,149 ★★★★
    Trying to argue probability on a forum is like trying to use Captain Marvels sp2... futile.
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