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7* awakening gems class crazy chance

SplinterBGSplinterBG Member Posts: 25 ★
in General Discussion
How is that even possible - 5 mutant awakening gems in a row(placed one on Dazzler)? What are the chances! Option to change awakening gems should be available!

Comments

  • Dr. CrabDr. Crab Member Posts: 867 ★★★★
    I’ve opened up 7, 4 of which were science the other 3 all mutant. It’s been so disappointing.
  • Dr. CrabDr. Crab Member Posts: 867 ★★★★
    BTW, I believe your chances are 5!
    (1 out of 5x4x3x2x1 which is 1 out of 120, i.e. 0.8%)
    I haven’t done stats in awhile but I believe that’s correct.
  • captain_rogerscaptain_rogers Member Posts: 13,451 ★★★★★
    MystG said:

    You've opened 5 awakening crystals? That's sick

    Most ftp players have opened around 5 or more.

    I remember getting 2 tech, 2 skill, 2 cosmic ags at this point from different sources
  • MystGMystG Member Posts: 151 ★
    edited July 12
    captain_rogers said:

    MystG said:

    You've opened 5 awakening crystals? That's sick

    Most ftp players have opened around 5 or more.

    I remember getting 2 tech, 2 skill, 2 cosmic ags at this point from different sources
    was a joke lol

    I've also opened about 5-6 of em

    Edit: 3 skill, 2 cosmic, 1 mystic iirc AND
    0 science cuz I've been desperately wanting to dupe my photon for prestige
  • captain_rogerscaptain_rogers Member Posts: 13,451 ★★★★★
    Dr. Crab said:

    BTW, I believe your chances are 5!
    (1 out of 5x4x3x2x1 which is 1 out of 120, i.e. 0.8%)
    I haven’t done stats in awhile but I believe that’s correct.

    Your rep is wrong though, it's not 5!, it's 1/5! (Sorry my maths ass couldn't resist correcting)
  • willrun4adonutwillrun4adonut Member Posts: 6,883 ★★★★★
    captain_rogers said:

    Dr. Crab said:

    BTW, I believe your chances are 5!
    (1 out of 5x4x3x2x1 which is 1 out of 120, i.e. 0.8%)
    I haven’t done stats in awhile but I believe that’s correct.

    Your rep is wrong though, it's not 5!, it's 1/5! (Sorry my maths ass couldn't resist correcting)
    I'm pretty sure that it's 1/(5^5) for five mutant gems, and 1/(5^4) for any five gems being the same. But I also haven't done probability in a long time.
  • Herbal_TaxmanHerbal_Taxman Member Posts: 2,599 ★★★★★
    willrun4adonut said:

    captain_rogers said:

    Dr. Crab said:

    BTW, I believe your chances are 5!
    (1 out of 5x4x3x2x1 which is 1 out of 120, i.e. 0.8%)
    I haven’t done stats in awhile but I believe that’s correct.

    Your rep is wrong though, it's not 5!, it's 1/5! (Sorry my maths ass couldn't resist correcting)
    I'm pretty sure that it's 1/(5^5) for five mutant gems, and 1/(5^4) for any five gems being the same. But I also haven't done probability in a long time.
    Definitely something more like this. 1/5 is far too low for the chance of pulling the same class in five consecutive crystals, each with a 1/6 chance.
  • MonkehelloMonkehello Member Posts: 11 ★
    I got skill ☹️
  • willrun4adonutwillrun4adonut Member Posts: 6,883 ★★★★★
    Herbal_Taxman said:

    willrun4adonut said:

    captain_rogers said:

    Dr. Crab said:

    BTW, I believe your chances are 5!
    (1 out of 5x4x3x2x1 which is 1 out of 120, i.e. 0.8%)
    I haven’t done stats in awhile but I believe that’s correct.

    Your rep is wrong though, it's not 5!, it's 1/5! (Sorry my maths ass couldn't resist correcting)
    I'm pretty sure that it's 1/(5^5) for five mutant gems, and 1/(5^4) for any five gems being the same. But I also haven't done probability in a long time.
    Definitely something more like this. 1/5 is far too low for the chance of pulling the same class in five consecutive crystals, each with a 1/6 chance.
    I think he meant 5 factorial, and I forgot there were six classes (just going off of the post without really reading), so it should be 1/(6^5) for mutant only I think
  • PolygonPolygon Member Posts: 5,577 ★★★★★
    Its not a factorial because pulling a gem once doesnt impact the chances of pulling it a 2nd time. The odds are "mutually exclusive"
  • BringPopcornBringPopcorn Member Posts: 9,613 ★★★★★
    I got 1 cosmic sitting in my inventory and no one other than Scream to use it on, and I don't want to use it on her. I know as soon as I use it I will get her from a Crystal. Its an unwritten rule of MCoC
  • Dr. CrabDr. Crab Member Posts: 867 ★★★★
    Oh man, brutal blunder. After almost 10 years I forgot there are six classes, man getting old sucks…Anyway, that puts it at 1/6! which is ~0.1% (or significantly higher if you believe that MCoC’s internal coding sways your probability into giving you outcomes that are less likely to help you, i.e. your 5th similar awakening gem, definitely more on the conspiratorial side though).
  • ShashankGuptaShashankGupta Member Posts: 732 ★★★
    captain_rogers said:

    Dr. Crab said:

    BTW, I believe your chances are 5!
    (1 out of 5x4x3x2x1 which is 1 out of 120, i.e. 0.8%)
    I haven’t done stats in awhile but I believe that’s correct.

    Your rep is wrong though, it's not 5!, it's 1/5! (Sorry my maths ass couldn't resist correcting)
    Why using brain when we have @DNA3000 for all our maths questions
    Hope he answer it as well 😅
  • BringPopcornBringPopcorn Member Posts: 9,613 ★★★★★
    ShashankGupta said:

    captain_rogers said:

    Dr. Crab said:

    BTW, I believe your chances are 5!
    (1 out of 5x4x3x2x1 which is 1 out of 120, i.e. 0.8%)
    I haven’t done stats in awhile but I believe that’s correct.

    Your rep is wrong though, it's not 5!, it's 1/5! (Sorry my maths ass couldn't resist correcting)
    Why using brain when we have @DNA3000 for all our maths questions
    Hope he answer it as well 😅
    You want him to waste his time on the chances of pulling 1/6 on individually resetting tries?...
    There is a very old analog device you can try to experiment. I know its crazy, the only thing you gotta do is assign 1 side a class in the game. Its called a Dice.
  • The_0wenpusThe_0wenpus Member Posts: 370 ★★★
    willrun4adonut said:

    Herbal_Taxman said:

    willrun4adonut said:

    captain_rogers said:

    Dr. Crab said:

    BTW, I believe your chances are 5!
    (1 out of 5x4x3x2x1 which is 1 out of 120, i.e. 0.8%)
    I haven’t done stats in awhile but I believe that’s correct.

    Your rep is wrong though, it's not 5!, it's 1/5! (Sorry my maths ass couldn't resist correcting)
    I'm pretty sure that it's 1/(5^5) for five mutant gems, and 1/(5^4) for any five gems being the same. But I also haven't done probability in a long time.
    Definitely something more like this. 1/5 is far too low for the chance of pulling the same class in five consecutive crystals, each with a 1/6 chance.
    I think he meant 5 factorial, and I forgot there were six classes (just going off of the post without really reading), so it should be 1/(6^5) for mutant only I think
    And 1/6^4 for a 5-in-a-row streak of any class.
  • BringPopcornBringPopcorn Member Posts: 9,613 ★★★★★
    The_0wenpus said:

    willrun4adonut said:

    Herbal_Taxman said:

    willrun4adonut said:

    captain_rogers said:

    Dr. Crab said:

    BTW, I believe your chances are 5!
    (1 out of 5x4x3x2x1 which is 1 out of 120, i.e. 0.8%)
    I haven’t done stats in awhile but I believe that’s correct.

    Your rep is wrong though, it's not 5!, it's 1/5! (Sorry my maths ass couldn't resist correcting)
    I'm pretty sure that it's 1/(5^5) for five mutant gems, and 1/(5^4) for any five gems being the same. But I also haven't done probability in a long time.
    Definitely something more like this. 1/5 is far too low for the chance of pulling the same class in five consecutive crystals, each with a 1/6 chance.
    I think he meant 5 factorial, and I forgot there were six classes (just going off of the post without really reading), so it should be 1/(6^5) for mutant only I think
    And 1/6^4 for a 5-in-a-row streak of any class.
    Can you throw a dice and get the same number 5 times in a row? Yes its possible
  • Dr. CrabDr. Crab Member Posts: 867 ★★★★
    edited July 12
    I checked it out, it’s actually (1/6)^5 so about 0.01%

    (Kudos @willrun4adonut)
  • MystGMystG Member Posts: 151 ★
    bro the thread derailed.. my condolences OP
  • TerminatrixTerminatrix Member Posts: 4,116 ★★★★★
    So with this being said, I think it's about time for some AG Selectors 😂
  • BringPopcornBringPopcorn Member Posts: 9,613 ★★★★★
    Terminatrix said:

    So with this being said, I think it's about time for some AG Selectors 😂

    Wouldn't a generic AG be more convenient? 🙄
  • TheUglyone123TheUglyone123 Member Posts: 722 ★★★★
    The last three awakening gem crystals I have opened have all been mutant, I feel your pain
  • TerminatrixTerminatrix Member Posts: 4,116 ★★★★★
    edited July 12
    BringPopcorn said:

    Terminatrix said:

    So with this being said, I think it's about time for some AG Selectors 😂

    Wouldn't a generic AG be more convenient? 🙄
    They didn't have 5 RARE generics though 🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄. Now chill.
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