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The math doesn’t seem to work quite right...

MfallsMfalls Posts: 94 ★
in General Discussion
So we just lost this war matchup, but based on the numbers the math is possible but highly improbable. What are the odds that the other team would die 8 more times and only have 1 fewer attack bonus?jhovviu0akxl.jpeg

Comments

  • Lmr5401Lmr5401 Posts: 3 ★
    You must be omitting boss kills... they rule the war world
  • BitterSteelBitterSteel Posts: 9,254 ★★★★★
    If you got 150 kills for a boss it’s still only 3 attack bonuses you’ve lost.

    The opposition could get 5 kills overall but if they’re all on different nodes then that’s 5 attack bonuses
  • MfallsMfalls Posts: 94 ★
    I get the one node left up, and the boss kills were 3-3. Like I said I know it’s possible but the probability of the difference in 8 defender kills being only 1 attack bonus is low. A difference of 4 attack bonus swings the win to us.
  • MfallsMfalls Posts: 94 ★
    DNA3000 wrote: »
    Mfalls wrote: »
    So we just lost this war matchup, but based on the numbers the math is possible but highly improbable. What are the odds that the other team would die 8 more times and only have 1 fewer attack bonus?

    Others have already commented on how this could happen mathematically, but I'll address the question of how likely it is. It is actually not all that unlikely.

    The max attack bonus possible is 495 (which includes traversing empty nodes). You had 441. So you lost 54. Three of those come from the defender you left behind. So you lost 51 attack bonuses to deaths and they got 56 kills. That suggests five of your deaths were on nodes that already had three kills. They had 440 attack bonuses and thus lost 55. They didn't leave any defenders behind and your side got 64 defender kills. So 9 of their deaths were on nodes with more than three kills.

    So your side had five deaths on depleted defender nodes and their side had nine deaths on those depleted nodes. That's not a terribly weird end result.

    When you break it down like that it makes a lot more sense than it did to me sense I hadn’t ever heard it broken down like that thanks!
  • MfallsMfalls Posts: 94 ★
    So leaving a node up is between a 250-370 point swing.
  • ZzyzxGuyZzyzxGuy Posts: 1,292 ★★★
    Mfalls wrote: »
    So we just lost this war matchup, but based on the numbers the math is possible but highly improbable. What are the odds that the other team would die 8 more times and only have 1 fewer attack bonus?

    Actually... very high.

    After 3 kills, it doesn't matter. How many times have you seen a defender with more than 3 kills?

    Every kill after that is lagniappe and doesn't mean anything.
  • OmniOmni Posts: 574 ★★★
    DNA3000 wrote: »
    ZzyzxGuy wrote: »
    Every kill after that is lagniappe and doesn't mean anything.

    Congratulations: this is the first time I've looked up something weird someone typed into the forums and discovered it was a legitimate English word spelled correctly I was unaware of.

    Challenge accepted I’m tossing in random obscure words in every post going forward

  • cradlemancradleman Posts: 86 ★
    If you left a node up you also didn't get max points for exploration. So while you have more attack bonus and diversity the points from less than 100% explore is what did you in. 300 points would have put you over the top.
  • SnizzbarSnizzbar Posts: 2,144 ★★★★★
    Omni wrote: »
    DNA3000 wrote: »
    ZzyzxGuy wrote: »
    Every kill after that is lagniappe and doesn't mean anything.

    Congratulations: this is the first time I've looked up something weird someone typed into the forums and discovered it was a legitimate English word spelled correctly I was unaware of.

    Challenge accepted I’m tossing in random obscure words in every post going forward

    Chuck in words that you've made up but he'll still have to look up anyway.
  • BitterSteelBitterSteel Posts: 9,254 ★★★★★
    Snizzbar wrote: »
    Omni wrote: »
    DNA3000 wrote: »
    ZzyzxGuy wrote: »
    Every kill after that is lagniappe and doesn't mean anything.

    Congratulations: this is the first time I've looked up something weird someone typed into the forums and discovered it was a legitimate English word spelled correctly I was unaware of.

    Challenge accepted I’m tossing in random obscure words in every post going forward

    Chuck in words that you've made up but he'll still have to look up anyway.

    That would just be bargantuous
  • BitterSteelBitterSteel Posts: 9,254 ★★★★★
    ShadPrince wrote: »
    BitterSteel wrote: »
    Snizzbar wrote: »
    Omni wrote: »
    DNA3000 wrote: »
    ZzyzxGuy wrote: »
    Every kill after that is lagniappe and doesn't mean anything.

    Congratulations: this is the first time I've looked up something weird someone typed into the forums and discovered it was a legitimate English word spelled correctly I was unaware of.

    Challenge accepted I’m tossing in random obscure words in every post going forward

    Chuck in words that you've made up but he'll still have to look up anyway.

    That would just be bargantuous

    huh...
    51829d856d8n.png



    Edit: dammit I fell for it

    nesowbcx2yuz.gif
  • ZzyzxGuyZzyzxGuy Posts: 1,292 ★★★
    edited August 2018
    DNA3000 wrote: »
    ZzyzxGuy wrote: »
    Every kill after that is lagniappe and doesn't mean anything.

    Congratulations: this is the first time I've looked up something weird someone typed into the forums and discovered it was a legitimate English word spelled correctly I was unaware of.

    It's kind of a southern Louisiana special. We use it a lot.
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