What are the most generally pulled 6*s?

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  • Zee_Reborn wrote: »
    Roll a die 60 times and see if you get 10 of each number.

    Yeah... that's called RNG.

    That's not what I'm referring to. If that were truly the case, then sometimes on various crystals we'd see the majority pull be a top champ. Been playing almost four years and I've never seen that. Cinematic majority? Iron Patriot. Current featured majority, Vulture.

    But that's not my point here, I just truly want to know what 6*s are mostly out there.

    Sorry, but this is once again another example of confirmation bias: people only remember what they want to remember. You remember people saying that IP was the most common drop that was reported out of the Cinematic crystal. However, you don't remember multiple people stating that was false. And in fact, as of the last time I checked and recorded the poll thread results, the top reported pull was Stark Enhanced Spiderman. The *second* highest reported pull was Iron Man Infinity War. Iron Patriot was third. And in fact, at no time was Iron Patriot the single most reported drop: it was tied for the top spot very early on, but it was quickly surpassed by Sparky, and then IMIW. It was trading third with Wasp at the end.

    You've seen the top pull be a top champ lots of times, because its happened lots of times. You just don't remember any of them, or remember them incorrectly.

    In any case, my 6* pulls to date have been Nebula, Loki, Loki, and Sabretooth in that order.
  • spaceoctopusspaceoctopus Posts: 1,072 ★★★
    DNA3000 wrote: »
    Zee_Reborn wrote: »
    Roll a die 60 times and see if you get 10 of each number.

    Yeah... that's called RNG.

    That's not what I'm referring to. If that were truly the case, then sometimes on various crystals we'd see the majority pull be a top champ. Been playing almost four years and I've never seen that. Cinematic majority? Iron Patriot. Current featured majority, Vulture.

    But that's not my point here, I just truly want to know what 6*s are mostly out there.

    Sorry, but this is once again another example of confirmation bias: people only remember what they want to remember. You remember people saying that IP was the most common drop that was reported out of the Cinematic crystal. However, you don't remember multiple people stating that was false. And in fact, as of the last time I checked and recorded the poll thread results, the top reported pull was Stark Enhanced Spiderman. The *second* highest reported pull was Iron Man Infinity War. Iron Patriot was third. And in fact, at no time was Iron Patriot the single most reported drop: it was tied for the top spot very early on, but it was quickly surpassed by Sparky, and then IMIW. It was trading third with Wasp at the end.

    You've seen the top pull be a top champ lots of times, because its happened lots of times. You just don't remember any of them, or remember them incorrectly.

    In any case, my 6* pulls to date have been Nebula, Loki, Loki, and Sabretooth in that order.

    Well again I was basing it off stats in my alliance where IP was the most pulled champ. Currently Vulture is the most pulled champ in our alliance from the featured crystal. I understand 30 people is about ridiculously small sample size, but I've also been looking at it for near the three years and in our alliance at least, the garbage rises to the top.

    Now I've already admitted based on what's been brought up here that I am wrong. I do find it strange that our alliance so often ends up with trash on top, but whatever, guess by the law of averages that means we're due for a great spell of openings coming soon.
  • I do find it strange that our alliance so often ends up with trash on top, but whatever, guess by the law of averages that means we're due for a great spell of openings coming soon.

    I don't find this particularly strange. You're concentrating on the wrong odds. You're asking what are the odds of thirty people in one alliance having the especially bad luck you've observed. But the correct question is, what are the odds that you and the other twenty nine members of your alliance just happen to be the exceptional one in a million human being that can report these odds correctly through nothing but observation without rigorous hard data collection to analyze? This has been tested scientifically: the odds of that being the case here are incredibly low.

    If you had a spreadsheet of all the drops pulled by all the members of your alliance across a multi-year timeframe immune to selection bias that could be independently analyzed, that would be something. But the anecdotal observation that your alliance consistently gets "unlucky drops" requires that the person making that observation have literally superhuman observational skills.
  • spaceoctopusspaceoctopus Posts: 1,072 ★★★
    DNA3000 wrote: »
    I do find it strange that our alliance so often ends up with trash on top, but whatever, guess by the law of averages that means we're due for a great spell of openings coming soon.

    I don't find this particularly strange. You're concentrating on the wrong odds. You're asking what are the odds of thirty people in one alliance having the especially bad luck you've observed. But the correct question is, what are the odds that you and the other twenty nine members of your alliance just happen to be the exceptional one in a million human being that can report these odds correctly through nothing but observation without rigorous hard data collection to analyze? This has been tested scientifically: the odds of that being the case here are incredibly low.

    If you had a spreadsheet of all the drops pulled by all the members of your alliance across a multi-year timeframe immune to selection bias that could be independently analyzed, that would be something. But the anecdotal observation that your alliance consistently gets "unlucky drops" requires that the person making that observation have literally superhuman observational skills.

    Lol, wow.

    Well I did have all of our pulls collected on spread sheets. Not difficult data to collect. Screen cap the alliance activity tab, not much room for human error that way either.
  • DNA3000 wrote: »
    I do find it strange that our alliance so often ends up with trash on top, but whatever, guess by the law of averages that means we're due for a great spell of openings coming soon.

    I don't find this particularly strange. You're concentrating on the wrong odds. You're asking what are the odds of thirty people in one alliance having the especially bad luck you've observed. But the correct question is, what are the odds that you and the other twenty nine members of your alliance just happen to be the exceptional one in a million human being that can report these odds correctly through nothing but observation without rigorous hard data collection to analyze? This has been tested scientifically: the odds of that being the case here are incredibly low.

    If you had a spreadsheet of all the drops pulled by all the members of your alliance across a multi-year timeframe immune to selection bias that could be independently analyzed, that would be something. But the anecdotal observation that your alliance consistently gets "unlucky drops" requires that the person making that observation have literally superhuman observational skills.

    Lol, wow.

    Your reaction is the expected one, consistent with the basic phenomenon. Maybe if this wasn't true, reports of statistical infidelity would be taken more seriously when they occurred, but when to a first order approximation all of them are both inaccurate yet vigorously prosecuted, the return on investment on pursuing any of them is essentially zero. I've actually found statistical anomalies traceable to bugs in game code before, and the effort it takes to break through the natural resistance to examining such reports is astronomically high. But it is understandable, because if you could bet against every player making these observations, you wouldn't need to work as a game developer anymore.
    Well I did have all of our pulls collected on spread sheets. Not difficult data to collect. Screen cap the alliance activity tab, not much room for human error that way either.

    Maybe next time you should lead with that, if that data actually exists. But given the practical limitations of alliance chat scrollback, anyone saying this is easy data to collect isn't likely to have actually tried to do it.
  • spaceoctopusspaceoctopus Posts: 1,072 ★★★
    Ok I'm done. Thanks for picking on me. I was asking a legit question, just wanted to know the most common 6* pulls. Then when presented with data from the cinematic crystal I admitted my previous inclination was wrong. Yet I'm continued to be bashed in here. There was no reason to being up my "data" in the first part of this thread, because that wasn't the point. Now why you don't you go pick apart the posters in the 5* featured crystal thread, because those guys are actually saying all the stuff that you're implying I am.

    If anyone has a link or graph it anything that shows who has pulled what 6*s so there's an idea of which are currently more common place in the game I'd appreciate seeing it. Again after all that's all the information I was actually after.
  • BitterSteelBitterSteel Posts: 2,937 ★★★★★
    Ok I'm done. Thanks for picking on me. I was asking a legit question, just wanted to know the most common 6* pulls. Then when presented with data from the cinematic crystal I admitted my previous inclination was wrong. Yet I'm continued to be bashed in here. There was no reason to being up my "data" in the first part of this thread, because that wasn't the point. Now why you don't you go pick apart the posters in the 5* featured crystal thread, because those guys are actually saying all the stuff that you're implying I am.

    If anyone has a link or graph it anything that shows who has pulled what 6*s so there's an idea of which are currently more common place in the game I'd appreciate seeing it. Again after all that's all the information I was actually after.

    Nobody was picking you from what I can see. I can only speak for myself but I only wished to correct you and meant no offense by it. I simply wanted to point out where I believe you are wrong. There is no “most common” 6* since they all have equal odds.

    Of course, there will be some slight variation due to RNG and also the fact that 6* being added to the crystals are staggered, I.e there was a few months of Luke cage being pulled before domino was able to be pulled when she was added later, so logically there will be more Luke cages than domino.

    But apart from that, there isn’t “a most common 6*”. Again, sorry for any offense caused, I was just correcting.
  • spaceoctopusspaceoctopus Posts: 1,072 ★★★
    I took no offense to anything you said @BitterSteel I understand the variation due to champs being added later. However, despite the RNG there are certainly more prevalent 6*s in the game than others. Again, that's how RNG works. That's the info I was looking for, just a type of statistical breakdown of who is out there
  • I took no offense to anything you said @BitterSteel I understand the variation due to champs being added later. However, despite the RNG there are certainly more prevalent 6*s in the game than others. Again, that's how RNG works. That's the info I was looking for, just a type of statistical breakdown of who is out there

    This is also in part to some 6* being around for longer periods of time. For example DPX... He's been around since the beginning, so naturally more people have him than 6* Corvus. I promise you that I can completely sympathize with your original post, because I am one of those with the unfortunate bad luck on all three of my 6* pulls :disappointed: I understand how hard it is to accept that odds are truly random. We have no other choice, however. Kabam has said they are completely RNG and all champs have the same drop rates.
  • I took no offense to anything you said @BitterSteel I understand the variation due to champs being added later. However, despite the RNG there are certainly more prevalent 6*s in the game than others. Again, that's how RNG works. That's the info I was looking for, just a type of statistical breakdown of who is out there

    This is a bit tricky. This gets into the technicalities of trials and polls beyond the issue of statistical randomness, but the bottom line is that it isn't always easy to generalize the results of a poll like this with the whole. If the generator is biased, then the results of the poll have a certain probability of reflecting that bias across the whole. But if the generator is non-biased, and statistically random, then subsets are not likely to represent the whole. In fact, some of the tests for randomness encapsulates the idea that subsets should not reflect the whole.
  • spaceoctopusspaceoctopus Posts: 1,072 ★★★
    DNA3000 wrote: »
    I took no offense to anything you said @BitterSteel I understand the variation due to champs being added later. However, despite the RNG there are certainly more prevalent 6*s in the game than others. Again, that's how RNG works. That's the info I was looking for, just a type of statistical breakdown of who is out there

    This is a bit tricky. This gets into the technicalities of trials and polls beyond the issue of statistical randomness, but the bottom line is that it isn't always easy to generalize the results of a poll like this with the whole. If the generator is biased, then the results of the poll have a certain probability of reflecting that bias across the whole. But if the generator is non-biased, and statistically random, then subsets are not likely to represent the whole. In fact, some of the tests for randomness encapsulates the idea that subsets should not reflect the whole.

    Agree. I've seen some things like it on Reddit before, but not one for 6*s. I know it wouldn't necessarily be accurate, but it would be interesting, to me at least.
  • DNA3000 wrote: »
    I took no offense to anything you said @BitterSteel I understand the variation due to champs being added later. However, despite the RNG there are certainly more prevalent 6*s in the game than others. Again, that's how RNG works. That's the info I was looking for, just a type of statistical breakdown of who is out there

    This is a bit tricky. This gets into the technicalities of trials and polls beyond the issue of statistical randomness, but the bottom line is that it isn't always easy to generalize the results of a poll like this with the whole. If the generator is biased, then the results of the poll have a certain probability of reflecting that bias across the whole. But if the generator is non-biased, and statistically random, then subsets are not likely to represent the whole. In fact, some of the tests for randomness encapsulates the idea that subsets should not reflect the whole.

    Agree. I've seen some things like it on Reddit before, but not one for 6*s. I know it wouldn't necessarily be accurate, but it would be interesting, to me at least.

    I think the reason we haven't seen too much of this is that 6* crystals are still a bit too infrequently opened for the poll to have sustainability. The best wide data set collection I've seen so far was the FGMC one on Reddit that included several hundred pulls. There was also the Blade featured pull. Usually, we can collect good data when everyone is opening something at roughly the same time (Blade, Cinematic) or when people can open them in batches (FGMC, PHC). But most people are opening one 6* crystal every few months at best. It is a lot harder to collect a lot of data before the thread gets pushed off the front page and no one can see it anymore.
  • spaceoctopusspaceoctopus Posts: 1,072 ★★★
    DNA3000 wrote: »
    DNA3000 wrote: »
    I took no offense to anything you said @BitterSteel I understand the variation due to champs being added later. However, despite the RNG there are certainly more prevalent 6*s in the game than others. Again, that's how RNG works. That's the info I was looking for, just a type of statistical breakdown of who is out there

    This is a bit tricky. This gets into the technicalities of trials and polls beyond the issue of statistical randomness, but the bottom line is that it isn't always easy to generalize the results of a poll like this with the whole. If the generator is biased, then the results of the poll have a certain probability of reflecting that bias across the whole. But if the generator is non-biased, and statistically random, then subsets are not likely to represent the whole. In fact, some of the tests for randomness encapsulates the idea that subsets should not reflect the whole.

    Agree. I've seen some things like it on Reddit before, but not one for 6*s. I know it wouldn't necessarily be accurate, but it would be interesting, to me at least.

    I think the reason we haven't seen too much of this is that 6* crystals are still a bit too infrequently opened for the poll to have sustainability. The best wide data set collection I've seen so far was the FGMC one on Reddit that included several hundred pulls. There was also the Blade featured pull. Usually, we can collect good data when everyone is opening something at roughly the same time (Blade, Cinematic) or when people can open them in batches (FGMC, PHC). But most people are opening one 6* crystal every few months at best. It is a lot harder to collect a lot of data before the thread gets pushed off the front page and no one can see it anymore.

    Great point.
  • DrZolaDrZola Posts: 3,496 ★★★★★
    GG, Luke Cage and Kingpin with another one on the way. Make of that what you will.

    Dr. Zola
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