Why keep playing when "RNG" is the enemy?

Between deals, gifting events, daily events and AW I've pulled 10 5* crystals since December 6. My pulls in order: Nebula, Iron Patriot, Archangel, Rocket, Hulk, Karnak, King Groot, Yellow Jacket, Ultron and just today Black Panther (Civil War). 10 pulls, 10 different champs, 9 of them mostly useless (AA being the exception) and, get this, NOT ONE PULL OF A CHAMP RELEASED AFTER MAY 2017. What are the odds that in 10 pulls there wouldn't be a single champion released in the 18 months prior? Not even a bad one, not a single newer champ at all.

But, you know, RNG...

Comments

Sixshot1

Since I don't think anyone actually answered the question, and I actually remember how to do this, based on the infographic from Trucos that shows 108 current 5 stars in the basic crystal, and 35 champions available post May 2017 (the Nebula / Yondu month), your odds of not pulling a champion released after that point in ten crystals is approximately 2%.

Sixshot1

Sixshot1 wrote: »

Since I don't think anyone actually answered the question, and I actually remember how to do this, based on the infographic from Trucos that shows 108 current 5 stars in the basic crystal, and 35 champions available post May 2017 (the Nebula / Yondu month), your odds of not pulling a champion released after that point in ten crystals is approximately 2%.

Of course I'm pretending you opened them all just now, ignoring the changes to the crystal between Dec. 6th and now, but the effect this would have on the result is negligible. Frankly, if newer champs is what you wanted, you've gotten quite unlucky friend.

ESF

I had to look. Out of 40 five-stars, the most recent release pulled from a basic was Hela, last month.

I have never opened a featured.

I have pulled Groot three times, Ant-Man, Spider-Gwen and She-Hulk twice each.

I say this for one reason: While I do believe there is RNG, I do not believe for one second that drop rates are the same.

I do believe that you are more likely to pull Groot than Corvus Glaive. She-Hulk and Spider-Gwen more than Domino.

So no, I do not believe the drop rates are even in the basic. I have been around long enough to simply not ever believe that

DNA3000

ESF wrote: »

I had to look. Out of 40 five-stars, the most recent release pulled from a basic was Hela, last month.

I have never opened a featured.

I have pulled Groot three times, Ant-Man, Spider-Gwen and She-Hulk twice each.

I say this for one reason: While I do believe there is RNG, I do not believe for one second that drop rates are the same.

I do believe that you are more likely to pull Groot than Corvus Glaive. She-Hulk and Spider-Gwen more than Domino.

So no, I do not believe the drop rates are even in the basic. I have been around long enough to simply not ever believe that

Fair enough. But since the data disagrees with you, you have to accept the fact that there's some non-zero probability you're wrong, and if you're wrong, there's nothing Kabam or anyone else can ever do to make that situation better for you. You're just locked into a situation where you will forever believe the game is rigged against you, because there's no "fix" for that problem.

In fact, even if you're right there's nothing anyone can do to fix the problem, because while I cannot actually state with absolute certainty that the game has guaranteed equal odds, I can state with absolute certainty that any game that did have absolutely guaranteed equal odds would still generate the kinds of results that are convincing you the game is rigged. That would seem to be an intractable problem.

V1PER1987

DNA3000 wrote: »

ESF wrote: »

I had to look. Out of 40 five-stars, the most recent release pulled from a basic was Hela, last month.

I have never opened a featured.

I have pulled Groot three times, Ant-Man, Spider-Gwen and She-Hulk twice each.

I say this for one reason: While I do believe there is RNG, I do not believe for one second that drop rates are the same.

I do believe that you are more likely to pull Groot than Corvus Glaive. She-Hulk and Spider-Gwen more than Domino.

So no, I do not believe the drop rates are even in the basic. I have been around long enough to simply not ever believe that

Fair enough. But since the data disagrees with you, you have to accept the fact that there's some non-zero probability you're wrong, and if you're wrong, there's nothing Kabam or anyone else can ever do to make that situation better for you. You're just locked into a situation where you will forever believe the game is rigged against you, because there's no "fix" for that problem.

In fact, even if you're right there's nothing anyone can do to fix the problem, because while I cannot actually state with absolute certainty that the game has guaranteed equal odds, I can state with absolute certainty that any game that did have absolutely guaranteed equal odds would still generate the kinds of results that are convincing you the game is rigged. That would seem to be an intractable problem.

Prove him wrong. You can’t. Just like he can’t prove he’s right. But you can’t assert 100% he’s wrong. You have no data to back it up. How can you say “the data disagrees with you” when you don’t have the data?

DalBot

V1PER1987 wrote: »

DNA3000 wrote: »

ESF wrote: »

I had to look. Out of 40 five-stars, the most recent release pulled from a basic was Hela, last month.

I have never opened a featured.

I have pulled Groot three times, Ant-Man, Spider-Gwen and She-Hulk twice each.

I say this for one reason: While I do believe there is RNG, I do not believe for one second that drop rates are the same.

I do believe that you are more likely to pull Groot than Corvus Glaive. She-Hulk and Spider-Gwen more than Domino.

So no, I do not believe the drop rates are even in the basic. I have been around long enough to simply not ever believe that

Fair enough. But since the data disagrees with you, you have to accept the fact that there's some non-zero probability you're wrong, and if you're wrong, there's nothing Kabam or anyone else can ever do to make that situation better for you. You're just locked into a situation where you will forever believe the game is rigged against you, because there's no "fix" for that problem.

In fact, even if you're right there's nothing anyone can do to fix the problem, because while I cannot actually state with absolute certainty that the game has guaranteed equal odds, I can state with absolute certainty that any game that did have absolutely guaranteed equal odds would still generate the kinds of results that are convincing you the game is rigged. That would seem to be an intractable problem.

Prove him wrong. You can’t. Just like he can’t prove he’s right. But you can’t assert 100% he’s wrong. You have no data to back it up. How can you say “the data disagrees with you” when you don’t have the data?

Agreed. That was a really smug response that contained the exact same amount of provable information as the one be was trying to take down.

Mr_M

I've done as one commenter suggested and you'd my odds of getting newer champs by going for the featured 5* crystals.

I've pulled Medusa and Blade from the old awesome featured.

Ive pulled Void, and Sentry, caiw, imiw duped, hela, sabertooth

I've also pulled Colossus, vulture, winter soldier, miles Morales, superior iron Man, Jane Foster ... From featured crystals. TBH I can't even remember where some of my champs came from ... Quake?? Storm?? Ms?? GG?? Yondu??

I saved 5* shards from October 2018 until the latest featured Crystal was added. I managed to save 90k shards only spending 50 bucks at Christmas time. Bought 6 featured and pulled she hulk, 2 Stark Spidey, champion, night thrasher, and yj.

To me, the odds of getting something just a little bit nicer is worth the extra cost, but ymmv.

unknown

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Zarakik

There is no odds everything is pre decided before you put you're crystal, i'm 4 years in this game, like today i opened 2 crystals 3* and 5* and both gave Deardevil Netflix, this is happening all the time, there is always few players in alliance that have insane luck but thats done to encourage other players to buy/grind/open more crystals, by the way you're pulls are bad i have Ultron 5* 4/55 and never use him, he is my diversity champ in AW, Nebula and Hulk dust as a 1/25 and probably will not go higher

Hammerbro_64

DENY THE ODDS!!!!!!!

New_Noob168

Nothing is truley random. It’s as good as the programmer. So how would RNG get 3 magnetos in a row

godsquad891

I just don't get it I get there are bad and better more powerful champions but if you don't have the skill to use the champs you've got what does it really matter I see so many posts of people crying I didn't get a 6 or 5* corvus if your end game and in a top alliance I feel you but with the rate and speed you open champs your bound to get a decent champ eventually anyway. yes certain champs make life easier but it has been proven time and again that most content has more than one counter or solution. You don't need a 6* domino to complete act 5 but if your near the end you've probably pulled at least one good champ .

XxLoganTDCxX

If you got a champ that you wanted every time, the game wouldn't be fun

unknown

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godsquad891

Fjolnir wrote: »

It’s tough to stay positive when you’re pulling arena fodder. I’ve opened four 5* dungeon crystals and only 1 was a solid hero.

5* Dungeon crystals
Blue cyclops
Rogue
King Groot
Agent Venom

Opened two 5* featured crystals recently:
Agent venom
She hulk

A lot of work with very little payoff for all that

so you have a duped av rouge is a great champ and
king groot awakened has a crazy regain

unknown

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DrZola

DNA3000 wrote: »

DrZola wrote: »

OP is making an argument that doesn’t reside in the tinfoil hat dimension—as far as I can tell, he doesn’t believe Kabam is out to get him or rigging his pulls.

To be frank, the OP is throwing things at the wall hoping something sticks. Any time someone points out a flaw in something he's said, he's dismissed it as being entirely irrelevant.

Rather, his point (as I understand it) is that he thinks the pRNG engine underpinning crystal drops is flawed. His evidence is personal and anecdotal, but for that matter all of our evidence is—we don’t have access to the global statistics the game team does, we don’t know the way pRNG in game works, etc.

That's actually false. We have access to recordings of real time crystal openings which cannot suffer from selection bias (i.e. only reporting the good or bad pulls) or reporting bias (since they are actual recordings). We can analyze them across ranges of different players to see if there are any statistically significant anomalies. To the best extent I can tell, there are no such detectable anomalies. You cannot prove a negative in this situation (that the system is perfectly random and there's no deviation from that), but you can prove a positive statement: that if statistical anomalies exist, they are small enough that anyone who thinks they've detected them in their own personal pulls is simply wrong.

Unless, and this is important to state, you believe your own pulls are special, or that the game is explicitly rigged in such a way to attempt to evade detection. Both of those are very specific conspiratorial indictments against the game operator.

Over time, one would think imbalances like OP’s should even out in a “random” systems.

If that did happen, it would be incontrovertible proof that the crystal openings were rigged to produce that result. Random systems don't behave that way. In fact, this is one of the tests that can be used to determine a pRNG is broken.

Still flipping that quarter. Can’t quite get to 30 straight but I’m determined.

Not trying to be sarcastic, but how many crystal openings have you watched? How many do you believe would be enough to definitively detect anomalies or determine that none exist? Just COW’s? Or more than that? What we have access to is scattered individual recordings of certain openings. I’ve watched Dave once or twice when he did his Friday openings, but I confess after 5 or 6 pops I lost interest. Even so, I’m unsure watching even all of his openings on every Friday show would be sufficient to determine the overall validity or invalidity of the system’s randomness.

Can you tell the period length for the pRNG from those video snippets? Is it long enough? How often are the seed values refreshed? What kind of pRNG is in use? Are seeds reused over and over?

And while, yes, I recognize that pRNG wouldn’t and shouldn’t (necessarily) produce a perfectly symmetrical distribution of results, I don’t think you are suggesting that a player getting zero “new” champs (however defined) over even 30 results is a probable outcome. Possible, yes, but not probable in a system where every champ purportedly has an equal chance of being pulled every time. If not, then the “randomness” is really more like simple “determinism” and not at all what we think it is. That’s what I mean by “evening out”—not that you should expect perfectly equivalent outcome distributions—but that a reliable pRNG system doesn’t operate outside of basic probability.

Or perhaps it does, and all the sage advice about “chin up, all random, keep popping crystals, luck changes” is just rubbish?

Dr. Zola

Kormo

'The RNG is not working as Intended ' #rigged

Vdh2008

ESF wrote: »

I had to look. Out of 40 five-stars, the most recent release pulled from a basic was Hela, last month.

While I do believe there is RNG, I do not believe for one second that drop rates are the same.

I do believe that you are more likely to pull Groot than Corvus Glaive. She-Hulk and Spider-Gwen more than Domino.

So no, I do not believe the drop rates are even in the basic. I have been around long enough to simply not ever believe that

After playing since launch, starting multiple accounts, spending thousands of $$$ and opening hundreds if not thousands of crystals, I have to agree with this.

I have heard numerous times that every champ has the same drop rate, but my experience doesn't match that.

The "RNG" is the most frustrating experience of this game. I will continue to play, because I still have fun doing it, but week after week, month after month, RNG punishes you much more than it rewards you.

godsquad891

pulling champs on 2 separate accounts is interesting I have pulled 4* omega red on both and recently on my second account ultron I have him as my second top champ on my main account. odds seem slim after all the techs I would pull him as a 5*

Shrimkins

It's easy to claim crystals are rigged because there is no proof and no way to prove it.

Lurker

@DNA3000 - I always enjoy your insight into both the mobile gaming production world and the theoretical math involved in the crystals that we are addicted to. I am an electrical engineer (decades of experience as a software developer), so while I am not on your level with statistics by any stretch, I am capable of understanding the higher math concepts that you regularly remind us of. (it is now a personal challenge to see how many sentences I can end with a preposition). Gambler's fallacy and such are important things to be reminded of. We need your voice of reason when our RNGsus forsakes us. So I am in no way suggesting you should stop, but...

I would like to add 2 possible ideas that could affect a lot of the statistical arguments you make.

1. computers can't generate truly random numbers but numbers that are "random enough" (which I know you already know). https://softwareengineering.stackexchange.com/questions/124233/why-is-it-impossible-to-produce-truly-random-numbers this is not a source exactly, but a good source of links and some good points. The math concepts are theoretical and don't translate perfectly to the real world problem of pseudo random. This is not a dismissal of those concepts but let's at least agree on the possibility that the kabam implemented RNG is just as buggy as the rest of their software and maybe it doesn't truly mirror statistical theory sometimes.

2. we cannot prove or disprove if kabam meddles with the odds based on any number of conditions like pay vs free. I will admit that the complexity of software required to implement most of the theories I've read on this forum would be so complex that I won't buy into them, but I'm a 100% believer that kabam tampers with the odds in some way. As an example of something I believe to be possible, each summoner has a score calculated based on factors kabam considers important (spending, current roster, recent roster, time spent playing, etc ..) and that score is used to change the posted odds. I don't believe they tweak specific accounts or target specific accounts, but I do not believe the youtube videos are a good cross section for analyzing the "fairness" of odds. youtubers probably have high "scores" just because they are super grinders, super spenders, super whatever affects your accounts odds.

****, I got lost in my points and forgot to end all my sentences with a preposition. fail.

DalBot

Lurker wrote: »

2. we cannot prove or disprove if kabam meddles with the odds based on any number of conditions like pay vs free. I will admit that the complexity of software required to implement most of the theories I've read on this forum would be so complex that I won't buy into them, but I'm a 100% believer that kabam tampers with the odds in some way. As an example of something I believe to be possible, each summoner has a score calculated based on factors kabam considers important (spending, current roster, recent roster, time spent playing, etc ..) and that score is used to change the posted odds. I don't believe they tweak specific accounts or target specific accounts, but I do not believe the youtube videos are a good cross section for analyzing the "fairness" of odds. youtubers probably have high "scores" just because they are super grinders, super spenders, super whatever affects your accounts odds.

This is hitting the nail on the head. I honestly think algorithms factor in to account time spent playing (more than 3 years here), spending activity (more than I would like to admit), game progress/what you've accomplished (100% every advanced game mode including LoL and Variant) as well as prestige and size of current roster (around 9300 prestige now and could be much higher if I awaken my 5R5 Domino and sig her up). I think all of these factors give a weight to what RNG options are even available to a specific account for specific crystals (free vs paid).

Shrimkins

DalBot wrote: »

Lurker wrote: »

2. we cannot prove or disprove if kabam meddles with the odds based on any number of conditions like pay vs free. I will admit that the complexity of software required to implement most of the theories I've read on this forum would be so complex that I won't buy into them, but I'm a 100% believer that kabam tampers with the odds in some way. As an example of something I believe to be possible, each summoner has a score calculated based on factors kabam considers important (spending, current roster, recent roster, time spent playing, etc ..) and that score is used to change the posted odds. I don't believe they tweak specific accounts or target specific accounts, but I do not believe the youtube videos are a good cross section for analyzing the "fairness" of odds. youtubers probably have high "scores" just because they are super grinders, super spenders, super whatever affects your accounts odds.

This is hitting the nail on the head. I honestly think algorithms factor in to account time spent playing (more than 3 years here), spending activity (more than I would like to admit), game progress/what you've accomplished (100% every advanced game mode including LoL and Variant) as well as prestige and size of current roster (around 9300 prestige now and could be much higher if I awaken my 5R5 Domino and sig her up). I think all of these factors give a weight to what RNG options are even available to a specific account for specific crystals (free vs paid).

That's a great theory and all but it's all fallacy because there is zero evidence. Kabam has also denied any such claims.

Even if kabam is lying and they do meddle with drop rates, it cannot be proven because it is seemingly so close to random that we will never be able to tell.

Personally I believe the "kabam is out to get me" philosophy to be nonsense. Been playing for over 3 years and we probably have similar accounts. I've pulled many trash champs and many good ones. I see no evidence of kabam fixing drops.

DrZola

Lurker wrote: »

@DNA3000 - I always enjoy your insight into both the mobile gaming production world and the theoretical math involved in the crystals that we are addicted to. I am an electrical engineer (decades of experience as a software developer), so while I am not on your level with statistics by any stretch, I am capable of understanding the higher math concepts that you regularly remind us of. (it is now a personal challenge to see how many sentences I can end with a preposition). Gambler's fallacy and such are important things to be reminded of. We need your voice of reason when our RNGsus forsakes us. So I am in no way suggesting you should stop, but...

I would like to add 2 possible ideas that could affect a lot of the statistical arguments you make.

1. computers can't generate truly random numbers but numbers that are "random enough" (which I know you already know). https://softwareengineering.stackexchange.com/questions/124233/why-is-it-impossible-to-produce-truly-random-numbers this is not a source exactly, but a good source of links and some good points. The math concepts are theoretical and don't translate perfectly to the real world problem of pseudo random. This is not a dismissal of those concepts but let's at least agree on the possibility that the kabam implemented RNG is just as buggy as the rest of their software and maybe it doesn't truly mirror statistical theory sometimes.

2. we cannot prove or disprove if kabam meddles with the odds based on any number of conditions like pay vs free. I will admit that the complexity of software required to implement most of the theories I've read on this forum would be so complex that I won't buy into them, but I'm a 100% believer that kabam tampers with the odds in some way. As an example of something I believe to be possible, each summoner has a score calculated based on factors kabam considers important (spending, current roster, recent roster, time spent playing, etc ..) and that score is used to change the posted odds. I don't believe they tweak specific accounts or target specific accounts, but I do not believe the youtube videos are a good cross section for analyzing the "fairness" of odds. youtubers probably have high "scores" just because they are super grinders, super spenders, super whatever affects your accounts odds.

****, I got lost in my points and forgot to end all my sentences with a preposition. fail.

Interesting points. I think what you say in #1 is consistent with what several of us are suggesting. And I too appreciate @DNA3000 engaging in these discussions—I’m removed from heavy quant work by several years in my career(s), so it’s nice to have someone who is comfortable talking about number theory and statistics.

I have reasonable faith in numbers. But I probably have more faith in human error.

Dr. Zola

DalBot

Shrimkins wrote: »

That's a great theory and all but it's all fallacy because there is zero evidence. Kabam has also denied any such claims.

Even if kabam is lying and they do meddle with drop rates, it cannot be proven because it is seemingly so close to random that we will never be able to tell.

Personally I believe the "kabam is out to get me" philosophy to be nonsense. Been playing for over 3 years and we probably have similar accounts. I've pulled many trash champs and many good ones. I see no evidence of kabam fixing drops.

You can't call something a fallacy when you also have no evidence to back up what you say. You're relying entirely on trust of an entity with profit motives. Historically not a great idea. You don't have the data to show it's wrong so you are speculating just as much as you accuse me of doing.

Just because you don't see it on your account doesn't mean that it doesn't occur on others.

V1PER1987

Shrimkins wrote: »

DalBot wrote: »

Lurker wrote: »

2. we cannot prove or disprove if kabam meddles with the odds based on any number of conditions like pay vs free. I will admit that the complexity of software required to implement most of the theories I've read on this forum would be so complex that I won't buy into them, but I'm a 100% believer that kabam tampers with the odds in some way. As an example of something I believe to be possible, each summoner has a score calculated based on factors kabam considers important (spending, current roster, recent roster, time spent playing, etc ..) and that score is used to change the posted odds. I don't believe they tweak specific accounts or target specific accounts, but I do not believe the youtube videos are a good cross section for analyzing the "fairness" of odds. youtubers probably have high "scores" just because they are super grinders, super spenders, super whatever affects your accounts odds.

This is hitting the nail on the head. I honestly think algorithms factor in to account time spent playing (more than 3 years here), spending activity (more than I would like to admit), game progress/what you've accomplished (100% every advanced game mode including LoL and Variant) as well as prestige and size of current roster (around 9300 prestige now and could be much higher if I awaken my 5R5 Domino and sig her up). I think all of these factors give a weight to what RNG options are even available to a specific account for specific crystals (free vs paid).

That's a great theory and all but it's all fallacy because there is zero evidence. Kabam has also denied any such claims.

Even if kabam is lying and they do meddle with drop rates, it cannot be proven because it is seemingly so close to random that we will never be able to tell.

Personally I believe the "kabam is out to get me" philosophy to be nonsense. Been playing for over 3 years and we probably have similar accounts. I've pulled many trash champs and many good ones. I see no evidence of kabam fixing drops.

As more and more newer (better) champs are added to the pool, you would think that people would start to see newer champs get pulled more frequently. But I keep seeing (from myself, alliance members, and friends) frequent old champs pulled. A lot of Rhinos, Spider Gwen’s, She Hulks, the ones considered trash tier. Not seeing batches of Starlords or Magiks pulled.

Another thing I keep seeing from the stout Kabam believers is literally any pull you have, they say that’s just proves RNG is working. 4 Colossus in a row? RNG is working. Spider Gwen, SheHulk, Hulkbuster, Rhino, and Cyclops? RNG is working. So what pulls have to happen in order for one of them to say maybe RNG isn’t working? Even 100 She Hulks in a row would have DNA saying it’s still possible. Yes, it may be possible, but really?

And I’ve heard the argument about the system not knowing what bad champs are. You’re seriously misguided if you don’t think Kabam doesn’t know who the trash champs are. They purposely litter all the crystals with trash champs to keep you coming back for the good ones when you miss. So to say Kabam doesn’t intentionally give you bad champs isn’t quite accurate either IMO.

I don’t don the tin foil hat but I consider myself a fool if I believed 100% that Kabam’s RNG system isn’t tilted even slightly even if only due to human/computer error.

Shrimkins

DalBot wrote: »

Shrimkins wrote: »

That's a great theory and all but it's all fallacy because there is zero evidence. Kabam has also denied any such claims.

Even if kabam is lying and they do meddle with drop rates, it cannot be proven because it is seemingly so close to random that we will never be able to tell.

Personally I believe the "kabam is out to get me" philosophy to be nonsense. Been playing for over 3 years and we probably have similar accounts. I've pulled many trash champs and many good ones. I see no evidence of kabam fixing drops.

You can't call something a fallacy when you also have no evidence to back up what you say. You're relying entirely on trust of an entity with profit motives. Historically not a great idea. You don't have the data to show it's wrong so you are speculating just as much as you accuse me of doing.

Just because you don't see it on your account doesn't mean that it doesn't occur on others.

Not relying entirely on the trust of kabam because after 3 years of playing the game, it seems totally random.

If @Viper1987 could produce evidence of people pulling 100 she hulks or even 4 colossus in a row or 4 of any champ in a row, it may change my mind.

I've pulled back to back spider gwens and back to back hulkbusters. Highly unlucky but still very much in the realm of possibility. I also pulled 2 hyperions in 3 crystals so there's some good rng.

People have been saying the crystals are rigged since the beginning when we only had 12 5* champs. Even then no one could produce evidence that they weren't random.

I fully understand that there is no such thing as a perfect RNG calculator and that there may be glitches in the system, but that is a far cry from what you are describing.

DrZola

Well, I can tell everyone something that clearly doesn’t benefit your crystal drops: forums activity.

It’s Groundhog Day for me again with my 4th pull of 5* Iron Fist overall and second in past ten basics. Just spectacularly awesome.

On the 2018 topic, that’s Sentry alone for me from non-bought crystals from 2018.

Dr. Zola

Kabam Zibiit

Hey there, as we've mentioned before, the chance of pulling any individual Champion from a Crystal is the exact same chance as pulling any other Champion, unless otherwise stated on the Crystal. Since some of the comments are starting to get a little personal, and since this topic has been addressed numerous times before, this thread will now be closed.