**WINTER OF WOE - BONUS OBJECTIVE POINT**
As previously announced, the team will be distributing an additional point toward milestones to anyone who completed the Absorbing Man fight in the first step of the Winter of Woe.
This point will be distributed at a later time as it requires the team to pull and analyze data.
The timeline has not been set, but work has started.
There is currently an issue where some Alliances are are unable to find a match in Alliance Wars, or are receiving Byes without getting the benefits of the Win. We will be adjusting the Season Points of the Alliances that are affected within the coming weeks, and will be working to compensate them for their missed Per War rewards as well.

Additionally, we are working to address an issue where new Members of an Alliance are unable to place Defenders for the next War after joining. We are working to address this, but it will require a future update.

Why keep playing when "RNG" is the enemy?

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Comments

  • Sixshot1Sixshot1 Posts: 459 ★★
    Since I don't think anyone actually answered the question, and I actually remember how to do this, based on the infographic from Trucos that shows 108 current 5 stars in the basic crystal, and 35 champions available post May 2017 (the Nebula / Yondu month), your odds of not pulling a champion released after that point in ten crystals is approximately 2%.
  • Sixshot1Sixshot1 Posts: 459 ★★
    Sixshot1 wrote: »
    Since I don't think anyone actually answered the question, and I actually remember how to do this, based on the infographic from Trucos that shows 108 current 5 stars in the basic crystal, and 35 champions available post May 2017 (the Nebula / Yondu month), your odds of not pulling a champion released after that point in ten crystals is approximately 2%.

    Of course I'm pretending you opened them all just now, ignoring the changes to the crystal between Dec. 6th and now, but the effect this would have on the result is negligible. Frankly, if newer champs is what you wanted, you've gotten quite unlucky friend.
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 18,558 Guardian
    ESF wrote: »
    I had to look. Out of 40 five-stars, the most recent release pulled from a basic was Hela, last month.

    I have never opened a featured.

    I have pulled Groot three times, Ant-Man, Spider-Gwen and She-Hulk twice each.

    I say this for one reason: While I do believe there is RNG, I do not believe for one second that drop rates are the same.

    I do believe that you are more likely to pull Groot than Corvus Glaive. She-Hulk and Spider-Gwen more than Domino.

    So no, I do not believe the drop rates are even in the basic. I have been around long enough to simply not ever believe that

    Fair enough. But since the data disagrees with you, you have to accept the fact that there's some non-zero probability you're wrong, and if you're wrong, there's nothing Kabam or anyone else can ever do to make that situation better for you. You're just locked into a situation where you will forever believe the game is rigged against you, because there's no "fix" for that problem.

    In fact, even if you're right there's nothing anyone can do to fix the problem, because while I cannot actually state with absolute certainty that the game has guaranteed equal odds, I can state with absolute certainty that any game that did have absolutely guaranteed equal odds would still generate the kinds of results that are convincing you the game is rigged. That would seem to be an intractable problem.

  • V1PER1987V1PER1987 Posts: 3,474 ★★★★★
    DNA3000 wrote: »
    ESF wrote: »
    I had to look. Out of 40 five-stars, the most recent release pulled from a basic was Hela, last month.

    I have never opened a featured.

    I have pulled Groot three times, Ant-Man, Spider-Gwen and She-Hulk twice each.

    I say this for one reason: While I do believe there is RNG, I do not believe for one second that drop rates are the same.

    I do believe that you are more likely to pull Groot than Corvus Glaive. She-Hulk and Spider-Gwen more than Domino.

    So no, I do not believe the drop rates are even in the basic. I have been around long enough to simply not ever believe that

    Fair enough. But since the data disagrees with you, you have to accept the fact that there's some non-zero probability you're wrong, and if you're wrong, there's nothing Kabam or anyone else can ever do to make that situation better for you. You're just locked into a situation where you will forever believe the game is rigged against you, because there's no "fix" for that problem.

    In fact, even if you're right there's nothing anyone can do to fix the problem, because while I cannot actually state with absolute certainty that the game has guaranteed equal odds, I can state with absolute certainty that any game that did have absolutely guaranteed equal odds would still generate the kinds of results that are convincing you the game is rigged. That would seem to be an intractable problem.

    Prove him wrong. You can’t. Just like he can’t prove he’s right. But you can’t assert 100% he’s wrong. You have no data to back it up. How can you say “the data disagrees with you” when you don’t have the data?
  • DalBotDalBot Posts: 1,616 ★★★★★
    V1PER1987 wrote: »
    DNA3000 wrote: »
    ESF wrote: »
    I had to look. Out of 40 five-stars, the most recent release pulled from a basic was Hela, last month.

    I have never opened a featured.

    I have pulled Groot three times, Ant-Man, Spider-Gwen and She-Hulk twice each.

    I say this for one reason: While I do believe there is RNG, I do not believe for one second that drop rates are the same.

    I do believe that you are more likely to pull Groot than Corvus Glaive. She-Hulk and Spider-Gwen more than Domino.

    So no, I do not believe the drop rates are even in the basic. I have been around long enough to simply not ever believe that

    Fair enough. But since the data disagrees with you, you have to accept the fact that there's some non-zero probability you're wrong, and if you're wrong, there's nothing Kabam or anyone else can ever do to make that situation better for you. You're just locked into a situation where you will forever believe the game is rigged against you, because there's no "fix" for that problem.

    In fact, even if you're right there's nothing anyone can do to fix the problem, because while I cannot actually state with absolute certainty that the game has guaranteed equal odds, I can state with absolute certainty that any game that did have absolutely guaranteed equal odds would still generate the kinds of results that are convincing you the game is rigged. That would seem to be an intractable problem.

    Prove him wrong. You can’t. Just like he can’t prove he’s right. But you can’t assert 100% he’s wrong. You have no data to back it up. How can you say “the data disagrees with you” when you don’t have the data?

    Agreed. That was a really smug response that contained the exact same amount of provable information as the one be was trying to take down.
  • Mr_MMr_M Posts: 35
    I've done as one commenter suggested and you'd my odds of getting newer champs by going for the featured 5* crystals.

    I've pulled Medusa and Blade from the old awesome featured.

    Ive pulled Void, and Sentry, caiw, imiw duped, hela, sabertooth

    I've also pulled Colossus, vulture, winter soldier, miles Morales, superior iron Man, Jane Foster ... From featured crystals. TBH I can't even remember where some of my champs came from ... Quake?? Storm?? Ms?? GG?? Yondu??

    I saved 5* shards from October 2018 until the latest featured Crystal was added. I managed to save 90k shards only spending 50 bucks at Christmas time. Bought 6 featured and pulled she hulk, 2 Stark Spidey, champion, night thrasher, and yj.

    To me, the odds of getting something just a little bit nicer is worth the extra cost, but ymmv.
  • ZarakikZarakik Posts: 178
    There is no odds everything is pre decided before you put you're crystal, i'm 4 years in this game, like today i opened 2 crystals 3* and 5* and both gave Deardevil Netflix, this is happening all the time, there is always few players in alliance that have insane luck but thats done to encourage other players to buy/grind/open more crystals, by the way you're pulls are bad i have Ultron 5* 4/55 and never use him, he is my diversity champ in AW, Nebula and Hulk dust as a 1/25 and probably will not go higher
  • Hammerbro_64Hammerbro_64 Posts: 7,463 ★★★★★
    DENY THE ODDS!!!!!!!
  • New_Noob168New_Noob168 Posts: 1,562 ★★★★
    Nothing is truley random. It’s as good as the programmer. So how would RNG get 3 magnetos in a row
  • godsquad891godsquad891 Posts: 779 ★★
    I just don't get it I get there are bad and better more powerful champions but if you don't have the skill to use the champs you've got what does it really matter I see so many posts of people crying I didn't get a 6 or 5* corvus if your end game and in a top alliance I feel you but with the rate and speed you open champs your bound to get a decent champ eventually anyway. yes certain champs make life easier but it has been proven time and again that most content has more than one counter or solution. You don't need a 6* domino to complete act 5 but if your near the end you've probably pulled at least one good champ .
  • XxLoganTDCxXXxLoganTDCxX Posts: 2,561 ★★★★
    If you got a champ that you wanted every time, the game wouldn't be fun
  • godsquad891godsquad891 Posts: 779 ★★
    Fjolnir wrote: »
    It’s tough to stay positive when you’re pulling arena fodder. I’ve opened four 5* dungeon crystals and only 1 was a solid hero.

    5* Dungeon crystals
    Blue cyclops
    Rogue
    King Groot
    Agent Venom

    Opened two 5* featured crystals recently:
    Agent venom
    She hulk

    A lot of work with very little payoff for all that

    so you have a duped av rouge is a great champ and
    king groot awakened has a crazy regain
  • DrZolaDrZola Posts: 8,480 ★★★★★
    DNA3000 wrote: »
    DrZola wrote: »
    OP is making an argument that doesn’t reside in the tinfoil hat dimension—as far as I can tell, he doesn’t believe Kabam is out to get him or rigging his pulls.

    To be frank, the OP is throwing things at the wall hoping something sticks. Any time someone points out a flaw in something he's said, he's dismissed it as being entirely irrelevant.
    Rather, his point (as I understand it) is that he thinks the pRNG engine underpinning crystal drops is flawed. His evidence is personal and anecdotal, but for that matter all of our evidence is—we don’t have access to the global statistics the game team does, we don’t know the way pRNG in game works, etc.

    That's actually false. We have access to recordings of real time crystal openings which cannot suffer from selection bias (i.e. only reporting the good or bad pulls) or reporting bias (since they are actual recordings). We can analyze them across ranges of different players to see if there are any statistically significant anomalies. To the best extent I can tell, there are no such detectable anomalies. You cannot prove a negative in this situation (that the system is perfectly random and there's no deviation from that), but you can prove a positive statement: that if statistical anomalies exist, they are small enough that anyone who thinks they've detected them in their own personal pulls is simply wrong.

    Unless, and this is important to state, you believe your own pulls are special, or that the game is explicitly rigged in such a way to attempt to evade detection. Both of those are very specific conspiratorial indictments against the game operator.
    Over time, one would think imbalances like OP’s should even out in a “random” systems.

    If that did happen, it would be incontrovertible proof that the crystal openings were rigged to produce that result. Random systems don't behave that way. In fact, this is one of the tests that can be used to determine a pRNG is broken.

    Still flipping that quarter. Can’t quite get to 30 straight but I’m determined.

    Not trying to be sarcastic, but how many crystal openings have you watched? How many do you believe would be enough to definitively detect anomalies or determine that none exist? Just COW’s? Or more than that? What we have access to is scattered individual recordings of certain openings. I’ve watched Dave once or twice when he did his Friday openings, but I confess after 5 or 6 pops I lost interest. Even so, I’m unsure watching even all of his openings on every Friday show would be sufficient to determine the overall validity or invalidity of the system’s randomness.

    Can you tell the period length for the pRNG from those video snippets? Is it long enough? How often are the seed values refreshed? What kind of pRNG is in use? Are seeds reused over and over?

    And while, yes, I recognize that pRNG wouldn’t and shouldn’t (necessarily) produce a perfectly symmetrical distribution of results, I don’t think you are suggesting that a player getting zero “new” champs (however defined) over even 30 results is a probable outcome. Possible, yes, but not probable in a system where every champ purportedly has an equal chance of being pulled every time. If not, then the “randomness” is really more like simple “determinism” and not at all what we think it is. That’s what I mean by “evening out”—not that you should expect perfectly equivalent outcome distributions—but that a reliable pRNG system doesn’t operate outside of basic probability.

    Or perhaps it does, and all the sage advice about “chin up, all random, keep popping crystals, luck changes” is just rubbish?

    Dr. Zola
  • KormoKormo Posts: 77
    'The RNG is not working as Intended ' #rigged
  • godsquad891godsquad891 Posts: 779 ★★
    edited January 2019
    pulling champs on 2 separate accounts is interesting I have pulled 4* omega red on both and recently on my second account ultron I have him as my second top champ on my main account. odds seem slim after all the techs I would pull him as a 5*
  • ShrimkinsShrimkins Posts: 1,479 ★★★★
    It's easy to claim crystals are rigged because there is no proof and no way to prove it.
  • LurkerLurker Posts: 196
    @DNA3000 - I always enjoy your insight into both the mobile gaming production world and the theoretical math involved in the crystals that we are addicted to. I am an electrical engineer (decades of experience as a software developer), so while I am not on your level with statistics by any stretch, I am capable of understanding the higher math concepts that you regularly remind us of. (it is now a personal challenge to see how many sentences I can end with a preposition). Gambler's fallacy and such are important things to be reminded of. We need your voice of reason when our RNGsus forsakes us. So I am in no way suggesting you should stop, but...

    I would like to add 2 possible ideas that could affect a lot of the statistical arguments you make.

    1. computers can't generate truly random numbers but numbers that are "random enough" (which I know you already know). https://softwareengineering.stackexchange.com/questions/124233/why-is-it-impossible-to-produce-truly-random-numbers this is not a source exactly, but a good source of links and some good points. The math concepts are theoretical and don't translate perfectly to the real world problem of pseudo random. This is not a dismissal of those concepts but let's at least agree on the possibility that the kabam implemented RNG is just as buggy as the rest of their software and maybe it doesn't truly mirror statistical theory sometimes.

    2. we cannot prove or disprove if kabam meddles with the odds based on any number of conditions like pay vs free. I will admit that the complexity of software required to implement most of the theories I've read on this forum would be so complex that I won't buy into them, but I'm a 100% believer that kabam tampers with the odds in some way. As an example of something I believe to be possible, each summoner has a score calculated based on factors kabam considers important (spending, current roster, recent roster, time spent playing, etc ..) and that score is used to change the posted odds. I don't believe they tweak specific accounts or target specific accounts, but I do not believe the youtube videos are a good cross section for analyzing the "fairness" of odds. youtubers probably have high "scores" just because they are super grinders, super spenders, super whatever affects your accounts odds.

    ****, I got lost in my points and forgot to end all my sentences with a preposition. fail.
  • DalBotDalBot Posts: 1,616 ★★★★★
    Lurker wrote: »

    2. we cannot prove or disprove if kabam meddles with the odds based on any number of conditions like pay vs free. I will admit that the complexity of software required to implement most of the theories I've read on this forum would be so complex that I won't buy into them, but I'm a 100% believer that kabam tampers with the odds in some way. As an example of something I believe to be possible, each summoner has a score calculated based on factors kabam considers important (spending, current roster, recent roster, time spent playing, etc ..) and that score is used to change the posted odds. I don't believe they tweak specific accounts or target specific accounts, but I do not believe the youtube videos are a good cross section for analyzing the "fairness" of odds. youtubers probably have high "scores" just because they are super grinders, super spenders, super whatever affects your accounts odds.

    This is hitting the nail on the head. I honestly think algorithms factor in to account time spent playing (more than 3 years here), spending activity (more than I would like to admit), game progress/what you've accomplished (100% every advanced game mode including LoL and Variant) as well as prestige and size of current roster (around 9300 prestige now and could be much higher if I awaken my 5R5 Domino and sig her up). I think all of these factors give a weight to what RNG options are even available to a specific account for specific crystals (free vs paid).
  • ShrimkinsShrimkins Posts: 1,479 ★★★★
    DalBot wrote: »
    Lurker wrote: »

    2. we cannot prove or disprove if kabam meddles with the odds based on any number of conditions like pay vs free. I will admit that the complexity of software required to implement most of the theories I've read on this forum would be so complex that I won't buy into them, but I'm a 100% believer that kabam tampers with the odds in some way. As an example of something I believe to be possible, each summoner has a score calculated based on factors kabam considers important (spending, current roster, recent roster, time spent playing, etc ..) and that score is used to change the posted odds. I don't believe they tweak specific accounts or target specific accounts, but I do not believe the youtube videos are a good cross section for analyzing the "fairness" of odds. youtubers probably have high "scores" just because they are super grinders, super spenders, super whatever affects your accounts odds.

    This is hitting the nail on the head. I honestly think algorithms factor in to account time spent playing (more than 3 years here), spending activity (more than I would like to admit), game progress/what you've accomplished (100% every advanced game mode including LoL and Variant) as well as prestige and size of current roster (around 9300 prestige now and could be much higher if I awaken my 5R5 Domino and sig her up). I think all of these factors give a weight to what RNG options are even available to a specific account for specific crystals (free vs paid).

    That's a great theory and all but it's all fallacy because there is zero evidence. Kabam has also denied any such claims.

    Even if kabam is lying and they do meddle with drop rates, it cannot be proven because it is seemingly so close to random that we will never be able to tell.

    Personally I believe the "kabam is out to get me" philosophy to be nonsense. Been playing for over 3 years and we probably have similar accounts. I've pulled many trash champs and many good ones. I see no evidence of kabam fixing drops.
  • DrZolaDrZola Posts: 8,480 ★★★★★
    Lurker wrote: »
    @DNA3000 - I always enjoy your insight into both the mobile gaming production world and the theoretical math involved in the crystals that we are addicted to. I am an electrical engineer (decades of experience as a software developer), so while I am not on your level with statistics by any stretch, I am capable of understanding the higher math concepts that you regularly remind us of. (it is now a personal challenge to see how many sentences I can end with a preposition). Gambler's fallacy and such are important things to be reminded of. We need your voice of reason when our RNGsus forsakes us. So I am in no way suggesting you should stop, but...

    I would like to add 2 possible ideas that could affect a lot of the statistical arguments you make.

    1. computers can't generate truly random numbers but numbers that are "random enough" (which I know you already know). https://softwareengineering.stackexchange.com/questions/124233/why-is-it-impossible-to-produce-truly-random-numbers this is not a source exactly, but a good source of links and some good points. The math concepts are theoretical and don't translate perfectly to the real world problem of pseudo random. This is not a dismissal of those concepts but let's at least agree on the possibility that the kabam implemented RNG is just as buggy as the rest of their software and maybe it doesn't truly mirror statistical theory sometimes.

    2. we cannot prove or disprove if kabam meddles with the odds based on any number of conditions like pay vs free. I will admit that the complexity of software required to implement most of the theories I've read on this forum would be so complex that I won't buy into them, but I'm a 100% believer that kabam tampers with the odds in some way. As an example of something I believe to be possible, each summoner has a score calculated based on factors kabam considers important (spending, current roster, recent roster, time spent playing, etc ..) and that score is used to change the posted odds. I don't believe they tweak specific accounts or target specific accounts, but I do not believe the youtube videos are a good cross section for analyzing the "fairness" of odds. youtubers probably have high "scores" just because they are super grinders, super spenders, super whatever affects your accounts odds.

    ****, I got lost in my points and forgot to end all my sentences with a preposition. fail.

    Interesting points. I think what you say in #1 is consistent with what several of us are suggesting. And I too appreciate @DNA3000 engaging in these discussions—I’m removed from heavy quant work by several years in my career(s), so it’s nice to have someone who is comfortable talking about number theory and statistics.

    I have reasonable faith in numbers. But I probably have more faith in human error.

    Dr. Zola
  • DalBotDalBot Posts: 1,616 ★★★★★
    Shrimkins wrote: »

    That's a great theory and all but it's all fallacy because there is zero evidence. Kabam has also denied any such claims.

    Even if kabam is lying and they do meddle with drop rates, it cannot be proven because it is seemingly so close to random that we will never be able to tell.

    Personally I believe the "kabam is out to get me" philosophy to be nonsense. Been playing for over 3 years and we probably have similar accounts. I've pulled many trash champs and many good ones. I see no evidence of kabam fixing drops.

    You can't call something a fallacy when you also have no evidence to back up what you say. You're relying entirely on trust of an entity with profit motives. Historically not a great idea. You don't have the data to show it's wrong so you are speculating just as much as you accuse me of doing.

    Just because you don't see it on your account doesn't mean that it doesn't occur on others.
  • V1PER1987V1PER1987 Posts: 3,474 ★★★★★
    Shrimkins wrote: »
    DalBot wrote: »
    Lurker wrote: »

    2. we cannot prove or disprove if kabam meddles with the odds based on any number of conditions like pay vs free. I will admit that the complexity of software required to implement most of the theories I've read on this forum would be so complex that I won't buy into them, but I'm a 100% believer that kabam tampers with the odds in some way. As an example of something I believe to be possible, each summoner has a score calculated based on factors kabam considers important (spending, current roster, recent roster, time spent playing, etc ..) and that score is used to change the posted odds. I don't believe they tweak specific accounts or target specific accounts, but I do not believe the youtube videos are a good cross section for analyzing the "fairness" of odds. youtubers probably have high "scores" just because they are super grinders, super spenders, super whatever affects your accounts odds.

    This is hitting the nail on the head. I honestly think algorithms factor in to account time spent playing (more than 3 years here), spending activity (more than I would like to admit), game progress/what you've accomplished (100% every advanced game mode including LoL and Variant) as well as prestige and size of current roster (around 9300 prestige now and could be much higher if I awaken my 5R5 Domino and sig her up). I think all of these factors give a weight to what RNG options are even available to a specific account for specific crystals (free vs paid).

    That's a great theory and all but it's all fallacy because there is zero evidence. Kabam has also denied any such claims.

    Even if kabam is lying and they do meddle with drop rates, it cannot be proven because it is seemingly so close to random that we will never be able to tell.

    Personally I believe the "kabam is out to get me" philosophy to be nonsense. Been playing for over 3 years and we probably have similar accounts. I've pulled many trash champs and many good ones. I see no evidence of kabam fixing drops.

    As more and more newer (better) champs are added to the pool, you would think that people would start to see newer champs get pulled more frequently. But I keep seeing (from myself, alliance members, and friends) frequent old champs pulled. A lot of Rhinos, Spider Gwen’s, She Hulks, the ones considered trash tier. Not seeing batches of Starlords or Magiks pulled.

    Another thing I keep seeing from the stout Kabam believers is literally any pull you have, they say that’s just proves RNG is working. 4 Colossus in a row? RNG is working. Spider Gwen, SheHulk, Hulkbuster, Rhino, and Cyclops? RNG is working. So what pulls have to happen in order for one of them to say maybe RNG isn’t working? Even 100 She Hulks in a row would have DNA saying it’s still possible. Yes, it may be possible, but really?

    And I’ve heard the argument about the system not knowing what bad champs are. You’re seriously misguided if you don’t think Kabam doesn’t know who the trash champs are. They purposely litter all the crystals with trash champs to keep you coming back for the good ones when you miss. So to say Kabam doesn’t intentionally give you bad champs isn’t quite accurate either IMO.

    I don’t don the tin foil hat but I consider myself a fool if I believed 100% that Kabam’s RNG system isn’t tilted even slightly even if only due to human/computer error.
  • ShrimkinsShrimkins Posts: 1,479 ★★★★
    DalBot wrote: »
    Shrimkins wrote: »

    That's a great theory and all but it's all fallacy because there is zero evidence. Kabam has also denied any such claims.

    Even if kabam is lying and they do meddle with drop rates, it cannot be proven because it is seemingly so close to random that we will never be able to tell.

    Personally I believe the "kabam is out to get me" philosophy to be nonsense. Been playing for over 3 years and we probably have similar accounts. I've pulled many trash champs and many good ones. I see no evidence of kabam fixing drops.

    You can't call something a fallacy when you also have no evidence to back up what you say. You're relying entirely on trust of an entity with profit motives. Historically not a great idea. You don't have the data to show it's wrong so you are speculating just as much as you accuse me of doing.

    Just because you don't see it on your account doesn't mean that it doesn't occur on others.

    Not relying entirely on the trust of kabam because after 3 years of playing the game, it seems totally random.

    If @Viper1987 could produce evidence of people pulling 100 she hulks or even 4 colossus in a row or 4 of any champ in a row, it may change my mind.

    I've pulled back to back spider gwens and back to back hulkbusters. Highly unlucky but still very much in the realm of possibility. I also pulled 2 hyperions in 3 crystals so there's some good rng.

    People have been saying the crystals are rigged since the beginning when we only had 12 5* champs. Even then no one could produce evidence that they weren't random.

    I fully understand that there is no such thing as a perfect RNG calculator and that there may be glitches in the system, but that is a far cry from what you are describing.
  • DrZolaDrZola Posts: 8,480 ★★★★★
    edited January 2019
    Well, I can tell everyone something that clearly doesn’t benefit your crystal drops: forums activity.

    It’s Groundhog Day for me again with my 4th pull of 5* Iron Fist overall and second in past ten basics. Just spectacularly awesome.

    On the 2018 topic, that’s Sentry alone for me from non-bought crystals from 2018.

    Dr. Zola
This discussion has been closed.