why would anyone go for the unstable rifts? garbage rng is garbage.
I'd bet Dollars to Drachma that people will want the Gem. Lol.
I would bet more than half the top tier crystals would be the unstable variety just because of that awakening gem. I just wish you didn't have to sacrifice as much crystal value for a shot at that, it is a bit too much of a double risk-penalty for my design sensibilities.
Very excited for the solo events so credit where credit is due. The stable and unstable rewards look decent but gonna wait to see some mathwiz to determine which one is economically better lol
Very excited for the solo events so credit where credit is due. The stable and unstable rewards look decent but gonna wait to see some mathwiz to determine which one is economically better lol
What about a paint god?
Personally i rate 18000 t2a higher than a 5* featured, also, why is 5000 5* shards listed as awesome but a whole 5* as meh?
Very excited for the solo events so credit where credit is due. The stable and unstable rewards look decent but gonna wait to see some mathwiz to determine which one is economically better lol
What about a paint god?
Personally i rate 18000 t2a higher than a 5* featured, also, why is 5000 5* shards listed as awesome but a whole 5* as meh?
Very excited for the solo events so credit where credit is due. The stable and unstable rewards look decent but gonna wait to see some mathwiz to determine which one is economically better lol
What about a paint god?
Personally i rate 18000 t2a higher than a 5* featured, also, why is 5000 5* shards listed as awesome but a whole 5* as meh?
Cause I am not a very smart person and didn't notice when doing this haha
Very excited for the solo events so credit where credit is due. The stable and unstable rewards look decent but gonna wait to see some mathwiz to determine which one is economically better lol
What about a paint god?
Personally i rate 18000 t2a higher than a 5* featured, also, why is 5000 5* shards listed as awesome but a whole 5* as meh?
No matter what, it is still all RNG. How can stable rifts have "more predictable" rewards when it is still RNG based. Yes, the percentages are more even, but that even makes it harder to predict what you will get. Have a feeling those sig stones and low shard rewards are going to come up a lot.
Very excited for the solo events so credit where credit is due. The stable and unstable rewards look decent but gonna wait to see some mathwiz to determine which one is economically better lol
What about a paint god?
wish I would have read up to page 3 before wasting my time in Excel...paint god!
Very excited for the solo events so credit where credit is due. The stable and unstable rewards look decent but gonna wait to see some mathwiz to determine which one is economically better lol
What about a paint god?
wish I would have read up to page 3 before wasting my time in Excel...paint god!
Very excited for the solo events so credit where credit is due. The stable and unstable rewards look decent but gonna wait to see some mathwiz to determine which one is economically better lol
What about a paint god?
wish I would have read up to page 3 before wasting my time in Excel...paint god!
The alternate way I present the trade off: if you are interested in picking the statistically best value in the long run, the question is which would you value more: 7000 5* shards and 250 6* shards combined, or one AG. If you think the AG is worth more, the unstable crystal is more valuable. If you think the shards are worth more, the stable crystal is worth more.
That's averages. Here's a different, more complex question: which crystal generates better results more often? In other words, imagine you roll a six sided dice and you can choose one of two options: in the first option no matter what you roll you get ten dollars, and in the second option if you roll 1-5 you get a buck, and if you roll a 6 you get a hundred dollars. Statistically, the second option is better: you'll average $17.50 per roll compared to ten. However, 83% of the time the first option is better: its $10 beats the other option's one dollar five out of six times. So one option "wins" more often, and one option wins more stuff overall. Which crystal wins "more often?"
It would take too long to discuss the methodology in detail and justify it mathematically, but here's basically what I did: I grouped the rewards into four categories: 5* champion rewards, 6* champion rewards, T2/Sig stone rewards, and T5/AG rewards. There's a 40% chance to get 5* champion rewards in each crystal, 20% chance to get 6* champion rewards, 30% chance to get T2/Sig rewards, and 10% chance to get T5/AG rewards. Since these are now identical for both crystals they can be individually compared.
For 5* rewards there's a 75% chance for the unstable crystal to pull 500 shards which is worse than any stable 5* champion reward. So the stable crystal beats the unstable crystal here at least 75% of the time. Furthermore, in the one in eight chance that you pull 5000 shards from the unstable crystal, the stable one would still beat it if you pulled a 5* full crystal (in terms of value) which happens 25% of the time. So overall the stable crystal beats the unstable crystal 78.125% of the time.
For 6* rewards there's about a 67% chance for the unstable crystal to pull 250 shards which is worse than either of the stable crystals, so the stable crystal beats the unstable crystal 67% of the time.
For T2/Sig rewards the stable crystal generates T2 67% of the time and sig stones 33% of the time, the unstable is the reverse. If you value T2A more than a few 5* sig stones (and I think most but not all players would) then the stable crystal beats the unstable crystal 67% of the time.
Finally, there's the T5AG rewards. Assuming you value an AG as more than 2250 T5 fragments, then the unstable crystal beats the stable one 100% of the time in this category.
Overall, this means the stable crystal will beat the unstable crystal about 64.75% of the time. If you just care about getting better or worse rewards, but not how much better or worse, the stable crystal beats the unstable crystal about two times in three. If you care about the total average haul across lots and lots of openings, then the unstable crystal probably wins overall (assuming you agree with the value of an AG as stated above).
Do you have any timeline when the Special Login Calendar be available to get the additional rifts? I want to set a timeframe where I can receive it. I have been planning for a vacation and I dont want to miss it. @Kabam Miike
Comments
Does tier 4 correspond to master?
Beginner—tier 1
Normal—2
Heroic—3
Master—4
The rewards look like uncollected difficulty, so I think someone should clarify that. It looks like beginner and normal got lumped into one rift lol.
Also, is there a little pool of champs that can be in the rift like previous editions? Is it the same pool as the solo event pool?
I might have misread, but it doesn’t look like there’s a bonus for completing tier 4 (500 5* shards in the past)
Overall, it looks like an incredible event!
I’m sure I’m going to get 5* sig stones on at least one rift though lol
Thank you sir
Both will yield on average
1 t2a
2250 T5B
2 Sig Stones
Difference comes down to
Stable:
1500 6* shards
15000 5* shards
Unstable
1375 6* shards
11500 5* shards
.5 AG
Essentially comes down to giving up some shards for a shot at an AG.
The alternate way I present the trade off: if you are interested in picking the statistically best value in the long run, the question is which would you value more: 7000 5* shards and 250 6* shards combined, or one AG. If you think the AG is worth more, the unstable crystal is more valuable. If you think the shards are worth more, the stable crystal is worth more.
That's averages. Here's a different, more complex question: which crystal generates better results more often? In other words, imagine you roll a six sided dice and you can choose one of two options: in the first option no matter what you roll you get ten dollars, and in the second option if you roll 1-5 you get a buck, and if you roll a 6 you get a hundred dollars. Statistically, the second option is better: you'll average $17.50 per roll compared to ten. However, 83% of the time the first option is better: its $10 beats the other option's one dollar five out of six times. So one option "wins" more often, and one option wins more stuff overall. Which crystal wins "more often?"
It would take too long to discuss the methodology in detail and justify it mathematically, but here's basically what I did: I grouped the rewards into four categories: 5* champion rewards, 6* champion rewards, T2/Sig stone rewards, and T5/AG rewards. There's a 40% chance to get 5* champion rewards in each crystal, 20% chance to get 6* champion rewards, 30% chance to get T2/Sig rewards, and 10% chance to get T5/AG rewards. Since these are now identical for both crystals they can be individually compared.
For 5* rewards there's a 75% chance for the unstable crystal to pull 500 shards which is worse than any stable 5* champion reward. So the stable crystal beats the unstable crystal here at least 75% of the time. Furthermore, in the one in eight chance that you pull 5000 shards from the unstable crystal, the stable one would still beat it if you pulled a 5* full crystal (in terms of value) which happens 25% of the time. So overall the stable crystal beats the unstable crystal 78.125% of the time.
For 6* rewards there's about a 67% chance for the unstable crystal to pull 250 shards which is worse than either of the stable crystals, so the stable crystal beats the unstable crystal 67% of the time.
For T2/Sig rewards the stable crystal generates T2 67% of the time and sig stones 33% of the time, the unstable is the reverse. If you value T2A more than a few 5* sig stones (and I think most but not all players would) then the stable crystal beats the unstable crystal 67% of the time.
Finally, there's the T5AG rewards. Assuming you value an AG as more than 2250 T5 fragments, then the unstable crystal beats the stable one 100% of the time in this category.
Overall, this means the stable crystal will beat the unstable crystal about 64.75% of the time. If you just care about getting better or worse rewards, but not how much better or worse, the stable crystal beats the unstable crystal about two times in three. If you care about the total average haul across lots and lots of openings, then the unstable crystal probably wins overall (assuming you agree with the value of an AG as stated above).