**WINTER OF WOE - BONUS OBJECTIVE POINT**
As previously announced, the team will be distributing an additional point toward milestones to anyone who completed the Absorbing Man fight in the first step of the Winter of Woe.
This point will be distributed at a later time as it requires the team to pull and analyze data.
The timeline has not been set, but work has started.
There is currently an issue where some Alliances are are unable to find a match in Alliance Wars, or are receiving Byes without getting the benefits of the Win. We will be adjusting the Season Points of the Alliances that are affected within the coming weeks, and will be working to compensate them for their missed Per War rewards as well.

Additionally, we are working to address an issue where new Members of an Alliance are unable to place Defenders for the next War after joining. We are working to address this, but it will require a future update.

Actual Crystal Odds

Zuko_ILCZuko_ILC Posts: 1,503 ★★★★★
For those wondering what your actual chance per dollar to get 1 featured champ I did a little Math for everyone.

27sq5w3dqwy6.png

Comments

  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 36,189 ★★★★★
    ^
  • Animejay70Animejay70 Posts: 400 ★★★
    Each crystal is its own chance. it's not dependent on any other crystal. So multiplying is meaningless.
  • RaganatorRaganator Posts: 2,498 ★★★★★
    Yeah. No.
  • ShrimkinsShrimkins Posts: 1,479 ★★★★
    Animejay70 wrote: »
    Each crystal is its own chance. it's not dependent on any other crystal. So multiplying is meaningless.

    It is possible to calculate probability of recurring events but the OP just did it wrong.

    The correct way would be to take the chance to NOT pull a feature 5* (0.996) and then take that to the power of however many crystals you buy and subtract that from 1.

    For instance: if I bought 250 crystals it would be 1-(0.996^250) = 0.633 or a 63.3% chance that I would pull at least 1 5* feature.
  • Mitchell35Mitchell35 Posts: 1,897 ★★★★
    Although it illustrates the point well.
  • ShrimkinsShrimkins Posts: 1,479 ★★★★
    edited August 2018
    Mitchell35 wrote: »
    Although it illustrates the point well.

    Not really. It's far worse than the OP suggests. To get over a 90% probability of pulling feature 5* you would have to buy 600 crystals which (by the OPs math) would be $9600.
  • ZzyzxGuyZzyzxGuy Posts: 1,292 ★★★
    OMG... Are people still convinced percentages are cumulative?

    Roll a die. You have a 1 in 6 chance to roll a 6. Roll it again. Same chance to roll a 6. No matter how many times you roll it, it's still a 1 in 6 chance.
  • DrZolaDrZola Posts: 8,479 ★★★★★
    Shrimkins wrote: »
    Animejay70 wrote: »
    Each crystal is its own chance. it's not dependent on any other crystal. So multiplying is meaningless.

    It is possible to calculate probability of recurring events but the OP just did it wrong.

    The correct way would be to take the chance to NOT pull a feature 5* (0.996) and then take that to the power of however many crystals you buy and subtract that from 1.

    For instance: if I bought 250 crystals it would be 1-(0.996^250) = 0.633 or a 63.3% chance that I would pull at least 1 5* feature.

    Thank you for this. If only everyone could be required to calculate the odds correctly before they (1) purchased a FGMC and (2) made a forums post about it.

    Dr. Zola
  • DemonzfyreDemonzfyre Posts: 20,860 ★★★★★
    Zuko_ILC wrote: »
    For those wondering what your actual chance per dollar to get 1 featured champ I did a little Math for everyone.

    27sq5w3dqwy6.png

    #fakenews
    #timenotwellspent
  • Zuko_ILCZuko_ILC Posts: 1,503 ★★★★★
    Shrimkins wrote: »
    Animejay70 wrote: »
    Each crystal is its own chance. it's not dependent on any other crystal. So multiplying is meaningless.

    It is possible to calculate probability of recurring events but the OP just did it wrong.

    The correct way would be to take the chance to NOT pull a feature 5* (0.996) and then take that to the power of however many crystals you buy and subtract that from 1.

    For instance: if I bought 250 crystals it would be 1-(0.996^250) = 0.633 or a 63.3% chance that I would pull at least 1 5* feature.

    Prove it show us a graph
  • AppleisgodAppleisgod Posts: 1,420 ★★★★
    Zuko_ILC wrote: »
    Shrimkins wrote: »
    Animejay70 wrote: »
    Each crystal is its own chance. it's not dependent on any other crystal. So multiplying is meaningless.

    It is possible to calculate probability of recurring events but the OP just did it wrong.

    The correct way would be to take the chance to NOT pull a feature 5* (0.996) and then take that to the power of however many crystals you buy and subtract that from 1.

    For instance: if I bought 250 crystals it would be 1-(0.996^250) = 0.633 or a 63.3% chance that I would pull at least 1 5* feature.

    Prove it show us a graph

    You're not the brightest bulb are you? He just showed you the math. No need for a graph
  • Zuko_ILCZuko_ILC Posts: 1,503 ★★★★★
    edited August 2018
    Appleisgod wrote: »
    Zuko_ILC wrote: »
    Shrimkins wrote: »
    Animejay70 wrote: »
    Each crystal is its own chance. it's not dependent on any other crystal. So multiplying is meaningless.

    It is possible to calculate probability of recurring events but the OP just did it wrong.

    The correct way would be to take the chance to NOT pull a feature 5* (0.996) and then take that to the power of however many crystals you buy and subtract that from 1.

    For instance: if I bought 250 crystals it would be 1-(0.996^250) = 0.633 or a 63.3% chance that I would pull at least 1 5* feature.

    Prove it show us a graph

    You're not the brightest bulb are you? He just showed you the math. No need for a graph

    Make a graph, I just did a simple spreadsheet showing if all odds were the same the unit costs to $ amount. I didn't include probability it was just for fun. To show that in Kabams mind if probability was removed a champ should cost $2419. It was really just to show people how ridiculously over priced crystals are in a simple form. It's okay to be angry at the world. We forgive you.
  • DrZolaDrZola Posts: 8,479 ★★★★★
  • ZzyzxGuyZzyzxGuy Posts: 1,292 ★★★
    edited August 2018
    DrZola wrote: »

    Yabut, probability =/= percentage.

    It does not increase the drop rate if you buy 1 crystal or 1000 crystals. The percentage of drop is still the same.

    Edit: you have a higher probability of hitting the low percentage drop with more "rolls".
  • Zuko_ILCZuko_ILC Posts: 1,503 ★★★★★
    DrZola wrote: »

    When we introduce probability then the outcome can actually be 1 out of 100,000,000 as it is per crystal and that probability can happen even as unlikely as it is. My simple chart shows that if probability is removed and you have a 0.4% chance it would cost you $2419 just for 1 champ. Again its just a simple exercise so people can see what the costs could be.
  • ShrimkinsShrimkins Posts: 1,479 ★★★★
    Zuko_ILC wrote: »
    Shrimkins wrote: »
    Animejay70 wrote: »
    Each crystal is its own chance. it's not dependent on any other crystal. So multiplying is meaningless.

    It is possible to calculate probability of recurring events but the OP just did it wrong.

    The correct way would be to take the chance to NOT pull a feature 5* (0.996) and then take that to the power of however many crystals you buy and subtract that from 1.

    For instance: if I bought 250 crystals it would be 1-(0.996^250) = 0.633 or a 63.3% chance that I would pull at least 1 5* feature.

    Prove it show us a graph

    No idea what this proves but I'm bored at work so here you go:
    gs4y96f7dedl.png
  • Zuko_ILCZuko_ILC Posts: 1,503 ★★★★★
    Shrimkins wrote: »
    Zuko_ILC wrote: »
    Shrimkins wrote: »
    Animejay70 wrote: »
    Each crystal is its own chance. it's not dependent on any other crystal. So multiplying is meaningless.

    It is possible to calculate probability of recurring events but the OP just did it wrong.

    The correct way would be to take the chance to NOT pull a feature 5* (0.996) and then take that to the power of however many crystals you buy and subtract that from 1.

    For instance: if I bought 250 crystals it would be 1-(0.996^250) = 0.633 or a 63.3% chance that I would pull at least 1 5* feature.

    Prove it show us a graph

    No idea what this proves but I'm bored at work so here you go:
    gs4y96f7dedl.png

    It proves your math is wrong
  • John757John757 Posts: 1,085 ★★★
    @Kabam Miike @Kabam Wolf @Kabam Vydious @Kabam Lyra can someone take this down. It’s completely incorrect information and will confuse people that don’t have a knowledge of probability
  • DarthPhalDarthPhal Posts: 1,064 ★★★★
    f77yfyec53ta.jpeg

    35% of households have cats so this chart is clearly wrong, unless 7% of people prefer TP all over the bathroom floor.
This discussion has been closed.