About the probability of inperias rex christals

I took the 100 avobe christals and I got no tier 6 hero, so I calculated these probability(P).
P = (1-0.015)^100 ≒ 22%
I think if you pay about $100, the probability of getting no tier 6 hero is 22%. Moreover, the probability of getting no tier 5 or 6 pick up hero is 45%.
I think some gift is given to a person pay $100 for supporting these game.
What do you think about that?

Comments

beeredpapa

sorry, I miss it. $100→$1000.

Woogieboogie

I think you should save the money and invest in Rosetta Stone.

beeredpapa

No way, I'm more interested in the probability of the christals in this game than Rosetta Stone.

Woogieboogie

No way, I'm more interested in the probability of the christals in this game than Rosetta Stone.

Your spelling is atrocious. It’s not a Christ al.

beeredpapa

oh, I see, crystal〜

unknown

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beeredpapa

Do you know poisson distribution? It is basic statistic for small samples. We can estimate the probability using it.

Woogieboogie

oh, I see, crystal〜

Thank you 😘

beeredpapa

In poisson distrbution, the probability of no tier 6 in 100 crystals is below:
P = exp(-0.015×100) ≒ 22%

FreeToPlay_21

I'm sorry, I'm usually not the guy to judge people from their grammar/spellings but man, that title is painful to read.

Bear3

Could be that it’s not his first language, in which case people are being kind of insensitive and unreasonable.

unknown

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shadow_lurker22

In poisson distrbution, the probability of no tier 6 in 100 crystals is below:
P = exp(-0.015×100) ≒ 22%

Kid loves math. I am assuming you are young because you spell things like I did when I was a kid (not being judgemental just wanted to point it out so that people on here wont judge you for you spelling mistakes).

beeredpapa

OK, you are lack of knowledge of statistics lol.

Demonzfyre

In poisson distrbution, the probability of no tier 6 in 100 crystals is below:
P = exp(-0.015×100) ≒ 22%

Or in your case it was 100%....

unknown

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DNA3000

Do you know poisson distribution? It is basic statistic for small samples. We can estimate the probability using it.

Actually, you don't use Poisson approximations for small samples. Poisson would only be useful in situations where the true situation is calculable as a binomial expansion and the number of events in the sequence is sufficiently large relative to the margin of error of the calculated event density.

In this case, the interval window is large enough for the Poisson approximation to be reasonably valid. Poisson says the odds of seeing zero events would be e^(-a)[a^0)/0!] = e^(-a)[1] = e^(-1.5) ~= 0.22313 or 22.313%. The actual odds are [1-0.015]^100 ~= 0.22061 or 22.061%.

Fairly close, but I don't know why anyone would do the lambda calculation instead of the direct one.

beeredpapa

Do you know poisson distribution? It is basic statistic for small samples. We can estimate the probability using it.
Actually, you don't use Poisson approximations for small samples. Poisson would only be useful in situations where the true situation is calculable as a binomial expansion and the number of events in the sequence is sufficiently large relative to the margin of error of the calculated event density.

In this case, the interval window is large enough for the Poisson approximation to be reasonably valid. Poisson says the odds of seeing zero events would be e^(-a)[a^0)/0!] = e^(-a)[1] = e^(-1.5) ~= 0.22313 or 22.313%. The actual odds are [1-0.015]^100 ~= 0.22061 or 22.061%.

Fairly close, but I don't know why anyone would do the lambda calculation instead of the direct one.

I need you, thank you for your adding for my calculation. You are right.