Cavalier crystals seem to be only dropping 3*s.

phiguy721

It looks like the Cavalier crystals are only dropping 3*s at the moment. I don't know whether or not this is a bug. However, it only started a few days ago. For further reference, I'm only buying them one at a time, so maybe that's part of it. Yet, I've never had this happen before, and I've gotten multiple 4*s, a few 5*s, and even a couple 6*s in the past. Nevertheless, caveat emptor.

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phiguy721

Arsoz said:

Rng

I thought so at first, but after the seventh one in a row over the course of multiple days, RNG doesn't explain what is effectively a probabilistic impossibility.

Rockypantherx

I mean, I’ve bought a few the last couple of days and only gotten 3*s but honestly. We’ve probably just got terrible luck.

phiguy721

Rockypantherx said:

I mean, I’ve bought a few the last couple of days and only gotten 3*s but honestly. We’ve probably just got terrible luck.

I've had times in the past when I've got 3-4 3*s in a row. I can't remember for sure, but there might have been even one time with five in a row. However, it's always come back around, until now that is.

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phiguy721

SquishyjrThe_4TH said:

phiguy721 said:

Arsoz said:

Rng

I thought so at first, but after the seventh one in a row over the course of multiple days, RNG doesn't explain what is effectively a probabilistic impossibility.

You must have iron clad evidence

Kabam has the logs of my pulls, so you'll have to talk to them if you want evidence of that sort.

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phiguy721

Jestress said:

roflcopter

Thank you for your insightful contribution to the discussion.

phiguy721

The only thing I've done differently recently is that I sold all my ISO because I needed gold. Maybe that triggered something algorithmically because it looked like I was trying to prepare my account for sale, or something of that nature. Though, for the record: I'm not trying to do so; I never have, and never would.

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Hammerbro_64

https://www.amazon.com/Archie-McPhee-Tin-Foil-Humans/dp/B07CXZBRW5

Thought you might like this

te_dua_shum

phiguy721 said:

Arsoz said:

Rng

I thought so at first, but after the seventh one in a row over the course of multiple days, RNG doesn't explain what is effectively a probabilistic impossibility.

do cavalier crystals have around 50% chance to drop a three star, right? if so, it isn't that impossible: the probability to get seven 3* in a row is around 1/128, not low at all if compared to others.

have you ever got the same 3* two times in a row? that's a much lower probability:
[number of champions in the crystal]^2
if the champs are 100, and probably are even more, i think around 130, the probability becomes 1/10.000 (or 1/16.900 if 130 champs considered), and i've seen it occour more than one time to me

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doctorb

Got 5*...groot

phiguy721

Hammerbro_64 said:

https://www.amazon.com/Archie-McPhee-Tin-Foil-Humans/dp/B07CXZBRW5

Thought you might like this

Thank you for your supremely meaningful contribution to the discussion.

phiguy721

Jestress said:

phiguy721 said:

Jestress said:

roflcopter

Thank you for your insightful contribution to the discussion.

You call it probabilistic impossibility. The chances of pulling a 3* from a cavalier xtal are 50%. Crystal drop rates are independent of each other. You just flipped the wrong side of the 50/50 7 times. Nothing special going on here. You can't expect to pull a 4/5/6* every time you pop a xtal.

Flipping a coin and getting heads seven times in a row is probabilistically improbable, if not impossible. Though, again, thank you for your insightful contribution to the discussion.

GroundedWisdom

The largest Drop Rate is 3*s. You're going to get a majority of them. 50% chance for every Crystal. Not 50/50. 50/38/11/1. Each Crystal has a majority chance of being a 3*.

phiguy721

te_dua_shum said:

phiguy721 said:

Arsoz said:

Rng

I thought so at first, but after the seventh one in a row over the course of multiple days, RNG doesn't explain what is effectively a probabilistic impossibility.

do cavalier crystals have around 50% chance to drop a three star, right? if so, it isn't that impossible: the probability to get seven 3* in a row is around 1/128, not low at all if compared to others.

have you ever got the same 3* two times in a row? that's a much lower probability:
[number of champions in the crystal]^2
if the champs are 100, and probably are even more, i think around 130, the probability becomes 1/10.000 (or 1/16.900 if 130 champs considered), and i've seen it occour more than one time to me

1/128 isn't 1/2, and the latter is what is being advertised. As I said elsewhere, if you flip a coin seven times, and get heads every time, you're either dealing with a very improbable outcome; or, your coin isn't normal.

phiguy721

GroundedWisdom said:

The largest Drop Rate is 3*s. You're going to get a majority of them. 50% chance for every Crystal. Not 50/50. 50/38/11/1. Each Crystal has a majority chance of being a 3*.

When you get the crystal, it isn't 50/38, 50/11, or 50/1. It's 50/38+11+1, which last I checked, is 50/50. Or, the drop rates aren't as advertised, and they're like you're saying (i.e. 50/11 for 3*s vs. 5*s).

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GroundedWisdom

The Crystals have a largest possibility of being a 3*. There's nothing wrong with them. It's RNG. 50% 3*. 38% 4*. 11% 5*. 1% 6*. You will probably drive yourself mad calculating probability with that coin toss theory, seen it many times, but I can assure you the majority chance is 3*s and you will see that in the results. As I've said countless times, there's no predictable pattern to determine something wrong based on individual samples. If every single outcome that everyone in the game pulled was a 3*, you may have cause for concern. As it stands, you're just not lucky.

GroundedWisdom

They're also separately-generated outcomes. That doesn't mean you're guaranteed 1 6* per 100. You could very well pull 100 3*s.

Snizzbar

Cavalier crystals seem to be only dropping 3*s.

There you are - I found an explanation for you.

JosephPoerio

phiguy721 said:

te_dua_shum said:

phiguy721 said:

Arsoz said:

Rng

I thought so at first, but after the seventh one in a row over the course of multiple days, RNG doesn't explain what is effectively a probabilistic impossibility.

do cavalier crystals have around 50% chance to drop a three star, right? if so, it isn't that impossible: the probability to get seven 3* in a row is around 1/128, not low at all if compared to others.

have you ever got the same 3* two times in a row? that's a much lower probability:
[number of champions in the crystal]^2
if the champs are 100, and probably are even more, i think around 130, the probability becomes 1/10.000 (or 1/16.900 if 130 champs considered), and i've seen it occour more than one time to me

1/128 isn't 1/2, and the latter is what is being advertised. As I said elsewhere, if you flip a coin seven times, and get heads every time, you're either dealing with a very improbable outcome; or, your coin isn't normal.

I agree with this. Kabam loves to hide behind the phrase “each crystal’s probability is independent from other crystals”, and while this is true, it’s not the whole story. If it’s a TRUE 50/50 “coin flip” with each crystal, you should end up with approximately a 50/50 result in combined total outcomes. It’s that simple. I’m not saying the Cav crystals are bugged or rigged, but pulling 7-10 3* in a row should be an EXTREMELY rare occurrence which I believe happens far too often.

ThatGuyYouSaw235

my friend, you are suffering from a little disease called "True Free To Play Experience"

and if you aren't Free to Play, Kabam Miike probably has his rig ray on you

DNA3000

phiguy721 said:

te_dua_shum said:

phiguy721 said:

Arsoz said:

Rng

I thought so at first, but after the seventh one in a row over the course of multiple days, RNG doesn't explain what is effectively a probabilistic impossibility.

do cavalier crystals have around 50% chance to drop a three star, right? if so, it isn't that impossible: the probability to get seven 3* in a row is around 1/128, not low at all if compared to others.

have you ever got the same 3* two times in a row? that's a much lower probability:
[number of champions in the crystal]^2
if the champs are 100, and probably are even more, i think around 130, the probability becomes 1/10.000 (or 1/16.900 if 130 champs considered), and i've seen it occour more than one time to me

1/128 isn't 1/2, and the latter is what is being advertised. As I said elsewhere, if you flip a coin seven times, and get heads every time, you're either dealing with a very improbable outcome; or, your coin isn't normal.

Thousands if not tens of thousands of players open Cavalier crystals. The odds of any one of them getting seven 3* champs in a row in exactly seven openings is low: it is one out of 128. However, across ten thousand players the statistical average is that 78 of those players will get seven 3* champs in a row after exactly seven openings each. It is unlikely for any one of them to see it, but it is pretty much guaranteed that someone will.

Furthermore, the odds of seeing seven in a row if you only open seven in your entire life is one in 128. However, the odds of seeing seven in a row if you open eight is three out of 256 or about one in 85 which is not all that rare. There's a recursive formula for calculating this that I'd rather not pencil out, so I just looked it up: the odds of seeing seven in a row if you open forty crystals is about 13% or about one in 7.63. In other words, if you get eight people to open forty Cav crystals, the odds are that one of them will see seven 3* champs in a row.

Human intuition is horrible when it comes to statistics. People make these kinds of mistakes all the time on the forums.

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DNA3000

May_The_Way said:

The majority of the time, you are going to pull 3*’s. It’s pretty well known at this point. Better to just save your money/units then keep getting disappointed.

At this point, I kind of wish everyone who believed this conspiracy theory stopped buying the crystals, so they aren't constantly reporting improper analysis of faulty data. Some of the people promoting this idea publicly seem to have a fundamental lack of understanding of basic arithmetic, much less statistics.

If the people who think the crystals are rigged contrary to the reported drop odds would stop buying them, literally everyone would be happier: those who stopped buying them, and those who continued buying them. Rarely does anyone have the option to make everyone happier with a trivial action. I wish they would take it.

JMORG1111

I'm at 5 in a row for 3*. Then an alliance mate pulled 5 and 6 star Mysterio from his featured crystal with two pulls. This game is all about "randomness"