Please fix this algorithm

Dhorne61

There’s no way that this is random. Every variant completed, science 3>4 gem and 4>5 gem. I’m maxed on the 4>5 gems and used one of the 3>4 on classic Spider-Man cause he’s one of my favorite characters in game.

DNA3000

There are six possible classes. So what you're basically saying is that Yahtzee is impossible to roll (which requires five six-sided dice to come up the same value) unless the dice are rigged. Every time someone has rolled Yahtzee in a game, they've been cheating.

Dhorne61

DNA3000 said:

There are six possible classes. So what you're basically saying is that Yahtzee is impossible to roll (which requires five six-sided dice to come up the same value) unless the dice are rigged. Every time someone has rolled Yahtzee in a game, they've been cheating.

Do you know math

GinjabredMonsta

Oh man they threw down the math gauntlet. Here we go.

Dhorne61

That’s a 1/6 chance for three pulls. There’s less than a 1% chance that if I did this three more time I would get three of the same class again. They have a patented algorithm that gives you more of what you already have.

_Kill_Switch_

Lol I'm maxed out on science too, with two science awakening gems and 0 useful champs to use em on. Got them from Variant too.

MagicBenton

Dhorne61 said:

That’s a 1/6 chance for three pulls. There’s less than a 1% chance that if I did this three more time I would get three of the same class again. They have a patented algorithm that gives you more of what you already have.

Then why didn't I get more of what I already had?

Dhorne61

MagicBenton said:

Dhorne61 said:

That’s a 1/6 chance for three pulls. There’s less than a 1% chance that if I did this three more time I would get three of the same class again. They have a patented algorithm that gives you more of what you already have.

Then why didn't I get more of what I already had?

Because you probably were able to use it. You are one in a million I guess. Congrats

Dhorne61

And if you don’t have anything useful to add, then don’t. I’m here suggesting they do something about a problem a lot of summoners have. If you don’t have that problem, good on you. Wish you well. Move on.

SknZn

DNA3000 said:

There are six possible classes. So what you're basically saying is that Yahtzee is impossible to roll (which requires five six-sided dice to come up the same value) unless the dice are rigged. Every time someone has rolled Yahtzee in a game, they've been cheating.

1/216 chance here

DNA3000

Dhorne61 said:

DNA3000 said:

There are six possible classes. So what you're basically saying is that Yahtzee is impossible to roll (which requires five six-sided dice to come up the same value) unless the dice are rigged. Every time someone has rolled Yahtzee in a game, they've been cheating.

Do you know math

You're not from around these here parts, are you stranger.

CoatHang3r

Dhorne61 said:

DNA3000 said:

There are six possible classes. So what you're basically saying is that Yahtzee is impossible to roll (which requires five six-sided dice to come up the same value) unless the dice are rigged. Every time someone has rolled Yahtzee in a game, they've been cheating.

Do you know math

@danielmath ?

Demonzfyre

GinjabredMonsta said:

Oh man they threw down the math gauntlet. Here we go.

@GinjabredMonsta my eyes popped out of my head too when they asked that. Lol

Demonzfyre

Dhorne61 said:

And if you don’t have anything useful to add, then don’t. I’m here suggesting they do something about a problem a lot of summoners have. If you don’t have that problem, good on you. Wish you well. Move on.

Nothing wrong with algorithm, only with your understanding. Pulling what you pulled is entirely in the realm of probability. Its highly unlikely but ultimately possible. Its working the way its supposed, random results don't equal different results.

You're saying it shouldn't be possible to get heads twice in a row when flipping a coin.

DNA3000

SknZn said:

DNA3000 said:

There are six possible classes. So what you're basically saying is that Yahtzee is impossible to roll (which requires five six-sided dice to come up the same value) unless the dice are rigged. Every time someone has rolled Yahtzee in a game, they've been cheating.

1/216 chance here

Actually, it is one in 1296.

DNA3000

Dhorne61 said:

That’s a 1/6 chance for three pulls. There’s less than a 1% chance that if I did this three more time I would get three of the same class again. They have a patented algorithm that gives you more of what you already have.

1. The patent stuff has been discussed to death, but the bottom line is those patents don't actually say what most people seem to think they say.

2. Also, Kabam says those algorithms aren't in use in MCOC.

3. And if you don't believe Kabam, the patent dates suggest the algorithms couldn't have been incorporated into MCOC when it was created.

4. And statistical analysis of drop rates in the past have shown no signs of such an algorithm in effect.

5. AND you can't patent "give people more of what they have" anyway, as that is too simple to patent.

6. AND if such an algorithm was patented, the whole point of patents is to protect the invention and prevent others from using it. So if Kabam is doing this and it is patent protected, no one else can. Absolutely no one believes Kabam has cornered the entire gaming market on lootbox manipulation, except for Kabam conspiracy theorists.

7. AND what's the point of such an algorithm? Some people don't want more of what they have, but others do. So you'd just be helping some players and hurting others, in the same way random chance would. You can't actually make money in the long run by doing this, because eventually this evens out. Long ago people used to bemoan cosmic awakening gems because there were few cosmic champs worth awakening. Now there are tons, and anyone who had stockpiled tons of those back when they were "worthless" were suddenly granted a bonanza when the cosmic trend reversed.

The same thing is true for rank up gems. Kabam keeps introducing new champs of different classes and keeps adding content that encourages players to rank up a diverse set of champs. So rank up gems that might not be useful today have a good chance of becoming useful tomorrow. There's no net benefit to Kabam, assuming they were actively trying to load up players with "useless" items, to work extra hard to skew drops towards things players already have.

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EthanGamer

DNA3000 said:

Dhorne61 said:

That’s a 1/6 chance for three pulls. There’s less than a 1% chance that if I did this three more time I would get three of the same class again. They have a patented algorithm that gives you more of what you already have.

1. The patent stuff has been discussed to death, but the bottom line is those patents don't actually say what most people seem to think they say.

2. Also, Kabam says those algorithms aren't in use in MCOC.

3. And if you don't believe Kabam, the patent dates suggest the algorithms couldn't have been incorporated into MCOC when it was created.

4. And statistical analysis of drop rates in the past have shown no signs of such an algorithm in effect.

5. AND you can't patent "give people more of what they have" anyway, as that is too simple to patent.

6. AND if such an algorithm was patented, the whole point of patents is to protect the invention and prevent others from using it. So if Kabam is doing this and it is patent protected, no one else can. Absolutely no one believes Kabam has cornered the entire gaming market on lootbox manipulation, except for Kabam conspiracy theorists.

7. AND what's the point of such an algorithm? Some people don't want more of what they have, but others do. So you'd just be helping some players and hurting others, in the same way random chance would. You can't actually make money in the long run by doing this, because eventually this evens out. Long ago people used to bemoan cosmic awakening gems because there were few cosmic champs worth awakening. Now there are tons, and anyone who had stockpiled tons of those back when they were "worthless" were suddenly granted a bonanza when the cosmic trend reversed.

The same thing is true for rank up gems. Kabam keeps introducing new champs of different classes and keeps adding content that encourages players to rank up a diverse set of champs. So rank up gems that might not be useful today have a good chance of becoming useful tomorrow. There's no net benefit to Kabam, assuming they were actively trying to load up players with "useless" items, to work extra hard to skew drops towards things players already have.

r/theydidthemath
Also it is possible but the chances are significantly slim.

danielmath

CoatHang3r said:

Dhorne61 said:

DNA3000 said:

There are six possible classes. So what you're basically saying is that Yahtzee is impossible to roll (which requires five six-sided dice to come up the same value) unless the dice are rigged. Every time someone has rolled Yahtzee in a game, they've been cheating.

Do you know math

@danielmath ?

haha nice tag there! But ya teach crystal is an independent event, so odds are the same to pull 6 science or 1 of each, or any other combo

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Liss_Bliss_

Dhorne61 said:

DNA3000 said:

There are six possible classes. So what you're basically saying is that Yahtzee is impossible to roll (which requires five six-sided dice to come up the same value) unless the dice are rigged. Every time someone has rolled Yahtzee in a game, they've been cheating.

Do you know math

I’m handing out free 🍿 who wants some.

Dhorne61

Ebony_Naw said:

danielmath said:

CoatHang3r said:

Dhorne61 said:

DNA3000 said:

There are six possible classes. So what you're basically saying is that Yahtzee is impossible to roll (which requires five six-sided dice to come up the same value) unless the dice are rigged. Every time someone has rolled Yahtzee in a game, they've been cheating.

Do you know math

@danielmath ?

haha nice tag there! But ya teach crystal is an independent event, so odds are the same to pull 6 science or 1 of each, or any other combo

Wouldn't that only be true if you were hunting for a specific class each time?

If I were instead to want a unique class, the odds of that would be 6/6 * 5/6 * 4/6 (using simple P/A * P(B/A) probability)

@danielmath is correct. The law of multiplication wouldn’t apply. Each pull is its own probability. Just salty that I keep getting science gems and no one to use it on.

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Felganos

According to Bayesian statistics, each one of the occurrences (pulling a 5 star science gem) is an independent outcome, meaning that the likelihood of getting a science gem 6 times would be the probability of getting it once (1/6) multiplied to the power of however many times you got it (6). This means that the odds of that happening to you (assuming you've told us the truth and you've only gotten science gems consecutively this whole time), should be 0.1666x0.1666 x0.1666x0.1666x0.1666x0.1666 which comes out to 1/46656

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