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Numbers Don’t Lie

I’ve speculated in the past about the drop rates of certain champs in different crystals but it wasn’t until this 5* featured that I decided to put pen to paper. What I found was astounding.

I have opened 3 5* featured crystals in the past few weeks and all of them have produced a 5* Thor Jane Foster. Assuming every champ has the same drop rate, the probability of pulling a TJF is 1/24. Here is where it gets interesting... Opening crystals are independent events. To find the probability of multiple independent events all occurring, you simply multiply their individual probabilities. So, the odds of getting a TJF is 1/24, multiply that by the probability of getting a second TJF on your next pull (1/24) and you get 1/576. That’s pretty unlikely but plausible. Now, take that probability and multiply it by the probability of getting a third consecutive TJF (1/24) and you get 1/13,824. That’s 0.007%. Again, that’s pretty unlikely but still plausible. I very well could be the unluckiest person in the whole MCOC community.

Here is where I find issue.... I have an alliance mate that has had similar luck. 3 5* Beasts in a row from 5* featured crystals. Again, independent events. The odds of my 3 TJF (1/13,824) multiplied by the odds of his 3 beasts (1/13,824) and you get 1/191,102,976!!!! That’s an astounding 0.000000523%. But it gets worse! Those are bad enough odds that this scenario can happen to two different people within the MCOC community for any given crystal, but when you take into account the fact that we are in the same group of 30 people out of the tens of thousands of people that play this game, the numbers really take a turn for the worse.

With all that being said, I can’t help but think that there are most likely similar stories out there where people have experienced this kind of luck. At some point we can’t just keep saying “that’s RNG for ya!” and we have to realize that maybe different champs are more likely to drop than others despite the assumption that they are all equal.

Anyways, rant over. Let me know what you all think. Maybe I’m off my rocker or maybe you agree with me. I’m interested to hear all sides.

Comments

  • Colinwhitworth69Colinwhitworth69 Posts: 3,948 ★★★★★
  • DjinDjin Posts: 1,902 ★★★★★
    Statistically speaking there's always a chance for unlikely events to take place.
  • PsyLifePsyLife Posts: 399 ★★
    So DNA3000 just took my post and elaborated it.🤣 Jk I couldn’t of explained that myself, plus I’m on mobile.
  • PsyLife said:

    So DNA3000 just took my post and elaborated it.

    Inspired by a true story.
  • SlashingSunsetSlashingSunset Posts: 244 ★★
    edited February 2020
    I do feel the same way as well sometimes. I mean, all of the time. My first 5* was a Beast back then, and I was so excited to open my second 5* when that time eventually came. I actually pulled him a second time. Good times!
    There's def something weird going on with those Crystals.
  • lowlevelplayerlowlevelplayer Posts: 4,293 ★★★★★
    @DNA3000 Sometimes I wonder what your day job is. Are you a math professor or just another math guy
  • PsyLifePsyLife Posts: 399 ★★
    @lowlevelplayer Teaching people math on the forums.
  • DemonzfyreDemonzfyre Posts: 14,287 ★★★★★
    @CoachLed go move defense.
  • HalleyHalley Posts: 257
    You: How could I win 5* Thor Jane with 0.000001% ??
    Kabam: Lucky you!! Congratulations! You win the game, like you did as a sperm long time ago!! It's a miracle, right? Enjoy & dont need to thank us!!
    🎊🎊🎊🎉🎉🎉💯💯💯
  • tklmctklmc Posts: 42
    edited February 2020
    I think exactly same as Plinko, RNG is not as it suppose to be. I have 29 5* champs and only tech is howard:(( So I have 15 tech t4c(now 19) usefulness in my inventory, last week I need mutant t4c and opened 5 t4 class crystal hoping mutant catalyst then what I saw is 4 tech and 1 cosmic that are the most unnecessary t4c's for my roster
  • DemonzfyreDemonzfyre Posts: 14,287 ★★★★★
    tklmc said:

    I think exactly same as Plinko, RNG is not as it suppose to be. I have 29 5* champs and only tech is howard:(( So I have 15 tech t4c usefulness in my inventory, last week I need mutant t4c and opened 5 t4 class crystal hoping mutant catalyst then what I saw is 4 tech and 1 cosmic that are the most unnecessary t4c's for my roster

    So if RNG is what it's supposed to be, what should you have?
  • KerneasKerneas Posts: 2,748 ★★★★★
    You all are thinking too small. You think that pulling 3x the same thing in a row is barely possible. But on the greater scale it is a normal phenomenon. If a million crystals are opened (and this happens), quite often happens that 3 same champions are opened by one person in a row
  • frzbrfrzbr Posts: 3
    from november 2019 to january 2020, i got 5 5* king groot in a row... and 6 4* magneto in a row ( counting both magnetos )... my first 6* was HT, and 2 months later, my 2nd 6* was HT again... i know its an rng but maybe something is brokens... lol...
  • tklmctklmc Posts: 42

    tklmc said:

    I think exactly same as Plinko, RNG is not as it suppose to be. I have 29 5* champs and only tech is howard:(( So I have 15 tech t4c usefulness in my inventory, last week I need mutant t4c and opened 5 t4 class crystal hoping mutant catalyst then what I saw is 4 tech and 1 cosmic that are the most unnecessary t4c's for my roster

    So if RNG is what it's supposed to be, what should you have?
    It could be more variable. I think RNG is not randomized and works with a code that increases the chance of pulls which you need the least
  • CoatHang3rCoatHang3r Posts: 4,604 ★★★★★
    Well this thread pretty much proves that numbers are so good at lying people have built entire belief systems around the lies they tell.
  • DrZolaDrZola Posts: 5,745 ★★★★★
    Ally mate pulled 4 6* Karnaks in a row from basic 6*.




    I offer this example only because I suspect the number of 6* pulls to be (and to have been) significantly less over time than 5* pulls. That may mean an extreme result like L100 Karnak is likelier than not because of a smaller sample size. Or maybe not.

    I don’t think there’s any reasonable doubt that the drops are randomized. But I do wonder what “randomized” actually means sometimes to the game’s basic chance engine.

    Dr. Zola
  • DemonzfyreDemonzfyre Posts: 14,287 ★★★★★
    tklmc said:

    tklmc said:

    I think exactly same as Plinko, RNG is not as it suppose to be. I have 29 5* champs and only tech is howard:(( So I have 15 tech t4c usefulness in my inventory, last week I need mutant t4c and opened 5 t4 class crystal hoping mutant catalyst then what I saw is 4 tech and 1 cosmic that are the most unnecessary t4c's for my roster

    So if RNG is what it's supposed to be, what should you have?
    It could be more variable. I think RNG is not randomized and works with a code that increases the chance of pulls which you need the least
    How can RNG be more variable? What about it says it has to be that?

    Do you have proof that code is enforced in the game?
  • PlinkoPlinko Posts: 171 ★★

    tklmc said:

    I think exactly same as Plinko, RNG is not as it suppose to be. I have 29 5* champs and only tech is howard:(( So I have 15 tech t4c usefulness in my inventory, last week I need mutant t4c and opened 5 t4 class crystal hoping mutant catalyst then what I saw is 4 tech and 1 cosmic that are the most unnecessary t4c's for my roster

    So if RNG is what it's supposed to be, what should you have?
    A variety and not the same thing you can't use every time you roll.
  • PsyLifePsyLife Posts: 399 ★★
    Actually, if you were to get variety, it would be less random. Check this out: https://www.daxthink.com/think/2017/2/27/apple-made-itunes-shuffle-less-random-to-make-it-more-random

    This is an example that actually disproves your point but enforces your thoughts. Kabam should change the rng system to get better business like apple did.
  • DemonzfyreDemonzfyre Posts: 14,287 ★★★★★
    Plinko said:

    tklmc said:

    I think exactly same as Plinko, RNG is not as it suppose to be. I have 29 5* champs and only tech is howard:(( So I have 15 tech t4c usefulness in my inventory, last week I need mutant t4c and opened 5 t4 class crystal hoping mutant catalyst then what I saw is 4 tech and 1 cosmic that are the most unnecessary t4c's for my roster

    So if RNG is what it's supposed to be, what should you have?
    A variety and not the same thing you can't use every time you roll.
    @Plinko that's not RNG.
  • PlinkoPlinko Posts: 171 ★★

    Plinko said:

    tklmc said:

    I think exactly same as Plinko, RNG is not as it suppose to be. I have 29 5* champs and only tech is howard:(( So I have 15 tech t4c usefulness in my inventory, last week I need mutant t4c and opened 5 t4 class crystal hoping mutant catalyst then what I saw is 4 tech and 1 cosmic that are the most unnecessary t4c's for my roster

    So if RNG is what it's supposed to be, what should you have?
    A variety and not the same thing you can't use every time you roll.
    @Plinko that's not RNG.
    That’s not an argument. Do you take every carny and used car salesman’s word for it when they tell you something. You have no proof that they don’t do it just as I don’t have any that they do. I have results from pulls to go on and that’s pretty strong evidence to me and many of the others experiencing the same thing. If you work for kabam or are friends with them that’s fine. But to say it’s impossible for them to have a system that isn’t highly dependent on your inventory is laughably naive.

  • _I__I_ Posts: 306
    if a person gets hit by a speeding vehicle yet survives we term it as a miracle but if the same person dies we term it as accidental death. but the probability of that hit n run victim to die or survive was always 50% at the instance of being hit. the outcome of the event just ends up being a source of relief or dismay depending on the result.
    so I do not feel the Kabam guys have done such rigorous maths so as to design such a cunning way that some champs are to be thrown down at us more frequently than the rest of the champions. its more abt the randomness becoming a reoccurring event n not some casino styled treachery.
    As I said before too that what u see in videos of end game players or players who spend regularly to buy champs, their pool or variety of possession of champions is due to their opportunity to have more chances to roll the dice or simply put as they are opening more crystals. The higher the no. of chances they are taking the greater the access to the probability of pulling a desirable champ. A player who can open only two 5 * crystals a month vs a player who will buy units n attempt those cavalier crystals @200 units a piece will obviously have higher chances to pull a desirable champ out of his many items.So the more u stake n gamble the more u will feel rewarded in the form of variety.This game is either for the patient guy or the impatient guy. A patient guy will just sit out like we sit out while fishing n bait the catch. An impatient guy will say forget fishing let's go buy the fish n eat it too.But at the end if the day target is to eat the fish. To eat it for free or buy it to savour its taste is our choice. Nothing else.
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