Kabam Answer Please: What are the actual ODDS in the new 5* crystals?

Yes please. Short of divulging proprietary information, this ought to be disclosed.

Dr. Zola

spumington

They will never disclose the odds in crystals...

whycallmenoob

@Kabam Mike

Yes we need to know the odds of sub-feature be basic champs for a 15K featured crystals in order to plan our crystal opening.

Please don't give us vague answers come on.

spumington:

I'm not hopeful either. But we ought to know ballpark numbers so we can make resource decisions accordingly. Tell us it's about 1 in 6 or 1 in 7 for a feature and about 1 in 10 for a sub. That's hardly proprietary and would at least give some directional guidance.

Transparency, remember?

Dr. Zola

Kabam Miike

While we definitely want to be able to share more information with you guys, we still do not share numbers on drop rates.

I can't really even give you relative rates, but I can say that you're still most likely to get a Basic 5-Star Hero, followed by the Featured Hero, followed by a Hero from the Sub-Featured pool.

SubTypical

@Kabam Miike , recently in China there were laws put in place requiring gaming companies to reveal odds for in-game items such as this. Other companies have already started to comply. Since Kabam merged the Chinese version of the game with this one, which is still available in China, wouldn't that mean Kabam would have to comply as well? And even if there's a loophole around this, if laws are getting passed in countries requiring information like this to be revealed, wouldn't it be the right thing for Kabam to make this information available?

mashable.com/2017/05/05/overwatch-loot-box-probability/#SO7Hko5_Taqt

Understood Miike, although I find it all a little too "double top secret." It's not like we all will suddenly be able to cook up the Coke formula with a little generic drop rate guidance.

Can I at least get a clarification whether the drop rate is unchanged for featureds under the new system--which would mean that the sub-feature drop rate replaced a little of the basic drop rate?

Dr. Zola

DanielRand

Many people equate the crystal spinning to gambling and Kabam wants to distance itself from that perception(And I am in no way comparing it to gambling, just so we are clear). The interesting thing is that gambling is all math based and you can always figure out the odds, even if they are not published by a casino. With crystal spinning there is no way for a player to know what their chances are when they spin. So not sure how math, can be proprietary information.

Draco2199

That answer is bad. Your chances are bad.

Haha Draco!

The only real reason I can guess for not giving at least directional guidance is if the rates are not identical for all players at all times and in all circumstances--the ever nefarious "in game factors."

But if Miike is willing to just say "your chances are bad...really bad" I will accept that too.

DZ

MarzGroove

In a 5* crystal, featured or basic, you have a 100% chance to pull a 5* hero.

The real question is (or at least should be), is there an drop rate for individual summoners?

If not, and they gave you the drop rate of a crystal (example: PHC 1:50 = 3*, 1:100 = 4*), it could be impossible to determine your actual chances of getting either, as it would be determined on how many crystals are opened game wide, and if you happened to be the one to open the exact right one at the exact right moment. Chances are they actually don't know the drop rate for individuals. This would likely explain the resistance to share.

JSnook wrote: »

The real question is (or at least should be), is there an drop rate for individual summoners?

If not, and they gave you the drop rate of a crystal (example: PHC 1:50 = 3*, 1:100 = 4*), it could be impossible to determine your actual chances of getting either, as it would be determined on how many crystals are opened game wide, and if you happened to be the one to open the exact right one at the exact right moment. Chances are they actually don't know the drop rate for individuals. This would likely explain the resistance to share.

It's not possible to have an RNG that is different for individual Players. Let me rephrase that. You would have to create an algorithm for every Player. Not likely. It's possible. They would still be working on it since the game's inception. There's only one Drop Rate. It doesn't change based on the Player.

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

JSnook wrote: »

The real question is (or at least should be), is there an drop rate for individual summoners?

If not, and they gave you the drop rate of a crystal (example: PHC 1:50 = 3*, 1:100 = 4*), it could be impossible to determine your actual chances of getting either, as it would be determined on how many crystals are opened game wide, and if you happened to be the one to open the exact right one at the exact right moment. Chances are they actually don't know the drop rate for individuals. This would likely explain the resistance to share.

It's not possible to have an RNG that is different for individual Players. Let me rephrase that. You would have to create an algorithm for every Player. Not likely. It's possible. They would still be working on it since the game's inception. There's only one Drop Rate. It doesn't change based on the Player.

I didn't mean different for each summoner. I meant are the drop rates of crystals for individuals or for entire game community .

So let's say the drop rate is 1:100 = 4* out of PHC. Every 100 crystals opened across the entire platform, 1 crystal will contain the 4* star hero.

This is different than saying that for every 100 crystals a specific summoner opens will result in a 4* hero.

The first scenario is the most plausible.

DrZola wrote: »

Can I at least get a clarification whether the drop rate is unchanged for featureds under the new system--which would mean that the sub-feature drop rate replaced a little of the basic drop rate?

The original announcement said that the odds of pulling the featured champ is unchanged, and in another post Kabam Miike stated that the odds of pulling a subfeatured champion were significantly smaller than the odds of pulling featured, and reduced the odds of pulling a basic to compensate (compensate in the sense that obviously the total odds have to add up to 100%).

For example purposes, given the general playerbase guestimate that the odds of pulling a featured were 20% originally, that would imply that the featured crystal used to have odds of 20%/80% split between featured and basic, it will now have odds of 20%/X%/Y% split between getting the featured, getting one of the subfeatureds, and getting a basic 5* champion, where X+Y = 80% and X<20%. My wild guess is its probably somewhere in the general area of 20/5/75 or something like that.

JSnook wrote: »

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

JSnook wrote: »

The real question is (or at least should be), is there an drop rate for individual summoners?

If not, and they gave you the drop rate of a crystal (example: PHC 1:50 = 3*, 1:100 = 4*), it could be impossible to determine your actual chances of getting either, as it would be determined on how many crystals are opened game wide, and if you happened to be the one to open the exact right one at the exact right moment. Chances are they actually don't know the drop rate for individuals. This would likely explain the resistance to share.

It's not possible to have an RNG that is different for individual Players. Let me rephrase that. You would have to create an algorithm for every Player. Not likely. It's possible. They would still be working on it since the game's inception. There's only one Drop Rate. It doesn't change based on the Player.

I didn't mean different for each summoner. I meant are the drop rates of crystals for individuals or for entire game community .

So let's say the drop rate is 1:100 = 4* out of PHC. Every 100 crystals opened across the entire platform, 1 crystal will contain the 4* star hero.

This is different than saying that for every 100 crystals a specific summoner opens will result in a 4* hero.

The first scenario is the most plausible.

I see what you mean. No. It's the same odds. When you open each individual Crystal, a random outcome is generated. That's why people are surprised when they open multiple Crystals and come up unexpected. Opening more gives more chances but not better odds.

JSnook wrote: »

The real question is (or at least should be), is there an drop rate for individual summoners?

If not, and they gave you the drop rate of a crystal (example: PHC 1:50 = 3*, 1:100 = 4*), it could be impossible to determine your actual chances of getting either, as it would be determined on how many crystals are opened game wide, and if you happened to be the one to open the exact right one at the exact right moment. Chances are they actually don't know the drop rate for individuals. This would likely explain the resistance to share.

That's not really how probability works. In a lottery, the odds of winning per ticket are the same for everyone, but of course (and I'm simplifying here) one person wins and everyone else loses. That doesn't mean that one person's individual odds of winning were 100% and everyone else's was zero.

LocoMotives

It's the same. Your odds would still be 1% no matter what. An RNG does not track the number of champs given out and adjust accordingly, it picks a random number. In this case, if it picks "1" then you win. If it picks "2-100", you lose.

Mikeself9 wrote: »

It's the same. Your odds would still be 1% no matter what. An RNG does not track the number of champs given out and adjust accordingly, it picks a random number. In this case, if it picks "1" then you win. If it picks "2-100", you lose.

This is it. When we see people wondering why they opened, let's say 100 Crystals, and never got a 4*, it's because it's not a guaranteed outcome if you have 100. If the odds are 1/100 and you have 100 Crystals, you have 100 chances at 1/100. Not 100% probability.

DNA3000 wrote: »

JSnook wrote: »

The real question is (or at least should be), is there an drop rate for individual summoners?

If not, and they gave you the drop rate of a crystal (example: PHC 1:50 = 3*, 1:100 = 4*), it could be impossible to determine your actual chances of getting either, as it would be determined on how many crystals are opened game wide, and if you happened to be the one to open the exact right one at the exact right moment. Chances are they actually don't know the drop rate for individuals. This would likely explain the resistance to share.

That's not really how probability works. In a lottery, the odds of winning per ticket are the same for everyone, but of course (and I'm simplifying here) one person wins and everyone else loses. That doesn't mean that one person's individual odds of winning were 100% and everyone else's was zero.

In the lottery they post the odds as 1:4.5 million (or some large number). It is understood that you have a minimal chance at winning. But there is also no guarantee that anyone will win. With the crystals that is different. There is a guarantee that someone WILL in fact be the 'winner'.

spumington

DNA3000 wrote: »

DrZola wrote: »

Can I at least get a clarification whether the drop rate is unchanged for featureds under the new system--which would mean that the sub-feature drop rate replaced a little of the basic drop rate?

The original announcement said that the odds of pulling the featured champ is unchanged, and in another post Kabam Miike stated that the odds of pulling a subfeatured champion were significantly smaller than the odds of pulling featured, and reduced the odds of pulling a basic to compensate (compensate in the sense that obviously the total odds have to add up to 100%).

For example purposes, given the general playerbase guestimate that the odds of pulling a featured were 20% originally, that would imply that the featured crystal used to have odds of 20%/80% split between featured and basic, it will now have odds of 20%/X%/Y% split between getting the featured, getting one of the subfeatureds, and getting a basic 5* champion, where X+Y = 80% and X<20%. My wild guess is its probably somewhere in the general area of 20/5/75 or something like that.

There was a post made by Kabam Miike a while back when they added more basic 5* champs to the 5* crystals. There was an explanation at that time how the crystals work. It's not broken into a percentage like you described above. Each featured crystal gives you a specific chance to open a featured champ. If we assume that it's 20%, then you have an 80% chance to not get the featured champ. Then you had an equal chance to get every other champ that's in the crystal. It's a two-step process; one step to determine if you get the featured, and the second step activates if you don't get it. Assuming the same process applies, we're looking at something like this:

20% chance to get the featured. 80% chance you don't get the featured.
If you don't get it, 15% chance to get the sub featured. 85% chance you don't get sub-featured.
If you don't get it, 100% chance to get a basic.

The crystal opening process is several steps. It doesn't give you a specific % chance for each champion type in one spin.

JSnook wrote: »

DNA3000 wrote: »

JSnook wrote: »

The real question is (or at least should be), is there an drop rate for individual summoners?

If not, and they gave you the drop rate of a crystal (example: PHC 1:50 = 3*, 1:100 = 4*), it could be impossible to determine your actual chances of getting either, as it would be determined on how many crystals are opened game wide, and if you happened to be the one to open the exact right one at the exact right moment. Chances are they actually don't know the drop rate for individuals. This would likely explain the resistance to share.

That's not really how probability works. In a lottery, the odds of winning per ticket are the same for everyone, but of course (and I'm simplifying here) one person wins and everyone else loses. That doesn't mean that one person's individual odds of winning were 100% and everyone else's was zero.

In the lottery they post the odds as 1:4.5 million (or some large number). It is understood that you have a minimal chance at winning. But there is also no guarantee that anyone will win. With the crystals that is different. There is a guarantee that someone WILL in fact be the 'winner'.

When the computer generates an outcome based on set probability, each generated outcome is individual. It's also possible no one will get a 4*. Although the odds of winning the the lottery are much less than the odds of a 4*. That's why we see people getting them.

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

JSnook wrote: »

DNA3000 wrote: »

JSnook wrote: »

The real question is (or at least should be), is there an drop rate for individual summoners?

If not, and they gave you the drop rate of a crystal (example: PHC 1:50 = 3*, 1:100 = 4*), it could be impossible to determine your actual chances of getting either, as it would be determined on how many crystals are opened game wide, and if you happened to be the one to open the exact right one at the exact right moment. Chances are they actually don't know the drop rate for individuals. This would likely explain the resistance to share.

That's not really how probability works. In a lottery, the odds of winning per ticket are the same for everyone, but of course (and I'm simplifying here) one person wins and everyone else loses. That doesn't mean that one person's individual odds of winning were 100% and everyone else's was zero.

In the lottery they post the odds as 1:4.5 million (or some large number). It is understood that you have a minimal chance at winning. But there is also no guarantee that anyone will win. With the crystals that is different. There is a guarantee that someone WILL in fact be the 'winner'.

When the computer generates an outcome based on set probability, each generated outcome is individual. It's also possible no one will get a 4*. Although the odds of winning the the lottery are much less than the odds of a 4*. That's why we see people getting them.

I see. I think a large percentage of people think something is done behind the scenes to changes these probabilities, which would change the perceived drop rates for individuals. Everyone goes through dry spells, where they don't pull one for months, then all of a sudden they start pulling every 2-3 days.

Personally I don't think they change anything, nor do they have time to do such a thing. Could it become bugged? Sure look at the game.

MayhemEffect

JSnook wrote: »

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

JSnook wrote: »

DNA3000 wrote: »

JSnook wrote: »

The real question is (or at least should be), is there an drop rate for individual summoners?

If not, and they gave you the drop rate of a crystal (example: PHC 1:50 = 3*, 1:100 = 4*), it could be impossible to determine your actual chances of getting either, as it would be determined on how many crystals are opened game wide, and if you happened to be the one to open the exact right one at the exact right moment. Chances are they actually don't know the drop rate for individuals. This would likely explain the resistance to share.

That's not really how probability works. In a lottery, the odds of winning per ticket are the same for everyone, but of course (and I'm simplifying here) one person wins and everyone else loses. That doesn't mean that one person's individual odds of winning were 100% and everyone else's was zero.

In the lottery they post the odds as 1:4.5 million (or some large number). It is understood that you have a minimal chance at winning. But there is also no guarantee that anyone will win. With the crystals that is different. There is a guarantee that someone WILL in fact be the 'winner'.

When the computer generates an outcome based on set probability, each generated outcome is individual. It's also possible no one will get a 4*. Although the odds of winning the the lottery are much less than the odds of a 4*. That's why we see people getting them.

I see. I think a large percentage of people think something is done behind the scenes to changes these probabilities, which would change the perceived drop rates for individuals. Everyone goes through dry spells, where they don't pull one for months, then all of a sudden they start pulling every 2-3 days.

Personally I don't think they change anything, nor do they have time to do such a thing. Could it become bugged? Sure look at the game.

but if the drop rates become bugged they will see it in the metrics. The keep track of how much of something drops on a grand scale over time, or at least everything that has been said over the past year leads me to see that. Komish(as known on the last forums) looks at those numbers.

JSnook wrote: »

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

JSnook wrote: »

DNA3000 wrote: »

JSnook wrote: »

The real question is (or at least should be), is there an drop rate for individual summoners?

If not, and they gave you the drop rate of a crystal (example: PHC 1:50 = 3*, 1:100 = 4*), it could be impossible to determine your actual chances of getting either, as it would be determined on how many crystals are opened game wide, and if you happened to be the one to open the exact right one at the exact right moment. Chances are they actually don't know the drop rate for individuals. This would likely explain the resistance to share.

That's not really how probability works. In a lottery, the odds of winning per ticket are the same for everyone, but of course (and I'm simplifying here) one person wins and everyone else loses. That doesn't mean that one person's individual odds of winning were 100% and everyone else's was zero.

In the lottery they post the odds as 1:4.5 million (or some large number). It is understood that you have a minimal chance at winning. But there is also no guarantee that anyone will win. With the crystals that is different. There is a guarantee that someone WILL in fact be the 'winner'.

When the computer generates an outcome based on set probability, each generated outcome is individual. It's also possible no one will get a 4*. Although the odds of winning the the lottery are much less than the odds of a 4*. That's why we see people getting them.

I see. I think a large percentage of people think something is done behind the scenes to changes these probabilities, which would change the perceived drop rates for individuals. Everyone goes through dry spells, where they don't pull one for months, then all of a sudden they start pulling every 2-3 days.

Personally I don't think they change anything, nor do they have time to do such a thing. Could it become bugged? Sure look at the game.

I don't think so. What we're seeing is RNG. Just the opposite actually. The outcome is generated based on the odds everytime. There is nothing that increases or decreases them based on how many bad pulls you get. It's luck of the draw.

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

JSnook wrote: »

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

JSnook wrote: »

DNA3000 wrote: »

JSnook wrote: »

The real question is (or at least should be), is there an drop rate for individual summoners?

If not, and they gave you the drop rate of a crystal (example: PHC 1:50 = 3*, 1:100 = 4*), it could be impossible to determine your actual chances of getting either, as it would be determined on how many crystals are opened game wide, and if you happened to be the one to open the exact right one at the exact right moment. Chances are they actually don't know the drop rate for individuals. This would likely explain the resistance to share.

That's not really how probability works. In a lottery, the odds of winning per ticket are the same for everyone, but of course (and I'm simplifying here) one person wins and everyone else loses. That doesn't mean that one person's individual odds of winning were 100% and everyone else's was zero.

In the lottery they post the odds as 1:4.5 million (or some large number). It is understood that you have a minimal chance at winning. But there is also no guarantee that anyone will win. With the crystals that is different. There is a guarantee that someone WILL in fact be the 'winner'.

When the computer generates an outcome based on set probability, each generated outcome is individual. It's also possible no one will get a 4*. Although the odds of winning the the lottery are much less than the odds of a 4*. That's why we see people getting them.

I see. I think a large percentage of people think something is done behind the scenes to changes these probabilities, which would change the perceived drop rates for individuals. Everyone goes through dry spells, where they don't pull one for months, then all of a sudden they start pulling every 2-3 days.

Personally I don't think they change anything, nor do they have time to do such a thing. Could it become bugged? Sure look at the game.

I don't think so. What we're seeing is RNG. Just the opposite actually. The outcome is generated based on the odds everytime. There is nothing that increases or decreases them based on how many bad pulls you get. It's luck of the draw.

And the biggest problem people seem to have with RNG, is you can never prove it's not random.

JSnook wrote: »

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

JSnook wrote: »

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

JSnook wrote: »

DNA3000 wrote: »

JSnook wrote: »

The real question is (or at least should be), is there an drop rate for individual summoners?

If not, and they gave you the drop rate of a crystal (example: PHC 1:50 = 3*, 1:100 = 4*), it could be impossible to determine your actual chances of getting either, as it would be determined on how many crystals are opened game wide, and if you happened to be the one to open the exact right one at the exact right moment. Chances are they actually don't know the drop rate for individuals. This would likely explain the resistance to share.

That's not really how probability works. In a lottery, the odds of winning per ticket are the same for everyone, but of course (and I'm simplifying here) one person wins and everyone else loses. That doesn't mean that one person's individual odds of winning were 100% and everyone else's was zero.

In the lottery they post the odds as 1:4.5 million (or some large number). It is understood that you have a minimal chance at winning. But there is also no guarantee that anyone will win. With the crystals that is different. There is a guarantee that someone WILL in fact be the 'winner'.

When the computer generates an outcome based on set probability, each generated outcome is individual. It's also possible no one will get a 4*. Although the odds of winning the the lottery are much less than the odds of a 4*. That's why we see people getting them.

I see. I think a large percentage of people think something is done behind the scenes to changes these probabilities, which would change the perceived drop rates for individuals. Everyone goes through dry spells, where they don't pull one for months, then all of a sudden they start pulling every 2-3 days.

Personally I don't think they change anything, nor do they have time to do such a thing. Could it become bugged? Sure look at the game.

I don't think so. What we're seeing is RNG. Just the opposite actually. The outcome is generated based on the odds everytime. There is nothing that increases or decreases them based on how many bad pulls you get. It's luck of the draw.

And the biggest problem people seem to have with RNG, is you can never prove it's not random.

There are ways of detecting the probability if one examines all drops as a collective over time, as opposed to being biased to who does and does not get good ones.
However, for the purpose of example, I will say that you can never prove that people aren't reading your thoughts. It doesn't encourage me to wear tin foil.

spumington wrote: »

There was a post made by Kabam Miike a while back when they added more basic 5* champs to the 5* crystals. There was an explanation at that time how the crystals work. It's not broken into a percentage like you described above. Each featured crystal gives you a specific chance to open a featured champ. If we assume that it's 20%, then you have an 80% chance to not get the featured champ. Then you had an equal chance to get every other champ that's in the crystal. It's a two-step process; one step to determine if you get the featured, and the second step activates if you don't get it. Assuming the same process applies, we're looking at something like this:

20% chance to get the featured. 80% chance you don't get the featured.
If you don't get it, 15% chance to get the sub featured. 85% chance you don't get sub-featured.
If you don't get it, 100% chance to get a basic.

The crystal opening process is several steps. It doesn't give you a specific % chance for each champion type in one spin.

That's algorithmically likely to be true, but its mathematically irrelevant. In the example you specify above, that algorithm is indistinguishable from an algorithm that gave a 20% chance for featured, 12% chance for subfeatured, 68% chance for basic. Its just a question of how the game designer decided to create the reward tables.