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Should you buy the Digital Chronometer

For those not familiar, the Digital Chronometer is a special item you will be able to purchase when the Red Room Rifts launch - see: https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/193279/you-are-being-contacted-on-behalf-of-the-red-room-academy

I'm going to focus on the Epic difficulty tier for this discussion. Without getting into the details, the bottom line is if you do everything you can do to earn the currency you need to enter these Rifts you'll be able to enter the Epic 18 times. BUT if you buy the Chronometer package you'll only be able to enter 13 times. The Chronometer basically will cost you five entries, which means fiver fewer times you can get Rift rewards.

But the catch is the Chronometer can be used ONCE to force the Rift you're in to give you whichever reward you want. So if you want the awakening gem and the class you want is on your current map you don't have to rely on luck: you just use the Chronometer and bam, you'll be on that path, and that awakening gem is yours.

So should you buy it? Is the value of picking the reward worth losing five entries?

First of all, if you really, really want a 5* awakening gem, my recommendation is (assuming you are capable of earning everything you need and can do the Rifts at Epic difficulty in the first place) buy the Chronometer, and then every time you enter look for the class you want: if you see it, burn it. You'll have thirteen tries to get the class you want: there's a 91% chance the class you want will eventually pop up. If you want at least two different classes, the odds are even better: 99.5% chance that one of those two classes will come up.

But what if you don't want the awakening gem? Maybe you have a bunch of them, maybe you don't need anything awakened, maybe you want something else even more, like 6* shards. Is it worth it to trade five entries for picking the reward then?

Probably. First of all, what's the statistical average expected outcome if you enter the Epic Rift five times? Basically, the math says:

5.5 5* sig tones
7200 5* shards
340 6* shards
2475 T5B fragments
0.45 T2A

That's the statistical average total haul for five entries. Of course, different people will get different results randomly. But that's the average value of five entries. Note: to get the 7200 5* shards I decided to value the 5* featured crystal as approximately 10,000 shards. I know they cost 15k, but Sigil players pay less and the *value* to a player might be nothing more than one more 5* pull. So I thought that was a safe estimate for the value of the crystal.

If you want 1000 6* shards instead of the 5* awakening gem, I'd say you should use the Chronometer. But if your thought was to target either the 10000 5* shards or the 5* featured crystal, I think it is a closer proposition. Personally, I think that package of stuff listed above is worth at least as much as 10k 5* shards or a featured 5* crystal. But other people might disagree.

In my opinion, buy the Epic Chronometer if a) you're targeting the 5* awakening gem, b) you're targeting the 1000 6* shards, c) you really, really, really hate having bad luck. But if you were not specifically targeting those resources, and you think your luck is not bad, and you're looking for the best possible value, then I'd consider carefully if the Chronometer is really giving you the best possible value. For example I don't think I would buy the Chronometer and target the T5B shards.

Of course, if you really really want something, then buy the Chronometer and target that thing. That's entirely your choice: do what will make you happy. But if you don't have a super strong preference (among the top rewards) and want to know which option gives more value, then the question is: is there something you can target with the Chronometer that is worth more than that basket of stuff above. If you believe you can, get the Chronometer. If you think none of the rewards you might pick is as good as that basket of stuff, and you don't mind leaving it to chance, skip the Chronometer.


As an aside, I'm 99.9% sure this is NOT how it works (NOT NOT NOT), but what would have made the Chronometer very interesting is if it could be used *after* you went through the path selector in the Rift. In other words, if the Chronometer could have erased one bad random roll. That would have been very interesting.
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Comments

  • DeaconVelvetDeaconVelvet Posts: 1,695 ★★★★
    respect for the thought it took to write all of this. i was leaning one way for sure until you mentioned it's like giving up 5 tries of which you'd probably get that gem anyway. now it's a tough choice .. gee thanks man LOL
  • Skillful_starSkillful_star Posts: 681 ★★★
    Honestly if I didn't need the skill awakening gem(I actually need 2 but you know) I would probably have preferred to risk it because aside from the sig stones I need pretty much everything. But it is what it is. Also could you please explain how you to a 91% chance of getting a specific awakening gem? Cause as far as I understand(assuming all classes have an equal chance) you have a 16.66% for a specific class to drop and 13 tries so how does it get to 91%?(not meaning to be rude or anything just curious)
  • HavanaknightHavanaknight Posts: 151
    I’m curious if you can buy a chronometer during a quest and use it. Just in case you are one of the special 9% that never sees the AG class you wanted.
  • FreeToPlay_21FreeToPlay_21 Posts: 1,594 ★★★★
    I need a Tech awakening gem for my Ghost and a Skill awakening gem for Ægon. I'm definitely going to get the Chronometer.
  • Akkarin23Akkarin23 Posts: 75
    I need a cosmic or skill ag, so I'm doing the safe bet and going for the chronometer. Solid post by the way.
  • GagoHGagoH Posts: 1,515 ★★★★
    Are the fights going to be variant like difficulty since its 2*’s?
  • Rodomontade_BoiRodomontade_Boi Posts: 1,196 ★★★★
    Wait so you can buy the chronometer, and use it when you see the (in my case) awakening gem class you want? I thought it would just force in an awakening gem crystal (1 out of 6 rng stuff) into your rift if you use the chronometer.

    I'm beyond confused now
  • TP33TP33 Posts: 1,394 ★★★★
    It depends on every individual account. Maybe there is somebody like me who REALLY needs an AG and so they would use the chronometer, but maybe somebody else does not need it and this decides it’s not worth it
  • hawk34hawk34 Posts: 41

    Wait so you can buy the chronometer, and use it when you see the (in my case) awakening gem class you want? I thought it would just force in an awakening gem crystal (1 out of 6 rng stuff) into your rift if you use the chronometer.

    I'm beyond confused now

    From what I've understood, a gem appears in one of the paths on the rift instead of a AG crystal. If you want to get that specific class gem you can then use the chronometer and if you don't, you can save the chronometer for later use and instead go for rng in that rift.
  • Still_Worthy_1Still_Worthy_1 Posts: 69
    edited April 2020
    I don't need any specific 5* awaken gem but I want 6* shard so what if I don't but chronometer is it hard to get them I didn't understand the concept of it.
    What happen if I don't buy chronometer and complete the path with 6* shard. Did I get it what it that percentage with reward.
    Sorry for bad English I am still learning it so manage.
    And Help me About understand this concept specially chronometer and percentage of reward what it meant.
    @Mike439
    @TP33
    @hawk34
    @Ebony_Naw
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 12,077 Guardian

    Wait so you can buy the chronometer, and use it when you see the (in my case) awakening gem class you want? I thought it would just force in an awakening gem crystal (1 out of 6 rng stuff) into your rift if you use the chronometer.

    I'm beyond confused now

    Think of the Chronometer as a "path selector." When you go into a Rift, normally there's a fight, then a portal, and when you enter the portal the game randomly puts you on a path, and each path as a reward on it. The path you get teleported to determines the reward you get from that Rift.

    The Chronometer, based on the description, unlocks a special portal where *you* pick the path. The Chronometer doesn't change the rewards. It let's you pick the path you want, and thus the reward you get. Instead of jumping onto a random path, you pick your path.
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 12,077 Guardian
    Ebony_Naw said:

    respect for the thought it took to write all of this. i was leaning one way for sure until you mentioned it's like giving up 5 tries of which you'd probably get that gem anyway. now it's a tough choice .. gee thanks man LOL

    If you pay to bypass the RNG you are almost guaranteed a specific class. If you do not buy the chronometer, you are statistically unlikely to get the class you are targeting.
    If you decide to skip the Chronometer, the odds of getting at least one awakening gem in 18 runs is about 42%. But if you want one specific class, there's only a one in six chance of getting that one, which means the odds of pulling one specific class AG are closer to 9%.

    Note: this is not 42%/6 = 7%. The odds of pulling the awakening gem path is 3%. But the odds of that AG being the class you want is 3%/6 = 0.5%. The odds of pulling at least one of those is thus 1 - (1-0.005)^18 ~ 0.086.
  • Sparx265Sparx265 Posts: 153
    What I'm gonna do is just do the first 12 runs and if I get the ag I want, well then I'll just keep going, but if I get trash and still need the ag, then I'll just buy the chronometer and get an ag (hopefully one of the two that I want).
  • ValdeValde Posts: 12

    I'm probably gonna run it 12 times and if I'm having luck keep going but if I keep getting shafted then at that point I will use the chronometer

    I was thinking the same thing, hopefully it won't come to that. I think it's more likely to get lucky earlier on and keep the gamble going.
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 12,077 Guardian
    Sparx265 said:

    What I'm gonna do is just do the first 12 runs and if I get the ag I want, well then I'll just keep going, but if I get trash and still need the ag, then I'll just buy the chronometer and get an ag (hopefully one of the two that I want).

    I would suggest buying the Chronometer if you don't get the AG you want by run 11. That way you have two shots at it, and you have a greater than 50% chance to get one of the two you want if you take two shots (the odds would be about 56% of getting one of two you want, and 44% that you don't get one of those two in two runs).

    Also, you need to be absolutely certain you will get that last run in.
  • Skillful_starSkillful_star Posts: 681 ★★★
    DNA3000 said:

    Honestly if I didn't need the skill awakening gem(I actually need 2 but you know) I would probably have preferred to risk it because aside from the sig stones I need pretty much everything. But it is what it is. Also could you please explain how you to a 91% chance of getting a specific awakening gem? Cause as far as I understand(assuming all classes have an equal chance) you have a 16.66% for a specific class to drop and 13 tries so how does it get to 91%?(not meaning to be rude or anything just curious)

    So here's the short mathy explanation. If you try to calculate the odds of getting one specific class awakening gem given six random possibilities, there are a lot of possibilities to consider. Let's say you want cosmic. You could get cosmic first, or cosmic second, or a cosmic fifth and also ninth, etc. You would have to itemize and calculate the odds of all those different possibilities and sum them up, making sure not to double count anything (the odds of getting it second are included in the odds of getting it first, because you could get two in a row).

    But there's only *one* way to *not* get the one you want: you have to strike out all 13 times. Because there's only one way to completely miss, that's much easier to calculate. The odds of missing the first time are 5/6. And then you have to do that again and again, twelve more times, thirteen times in a row. The odds of that happening are 5/6 x 5/6 x 5/6 x ... x 5/6 thirteen times. (5/6)^13 is about 0.09, or about 9%. If the odds of completely failing to get that one specific type is 9%, then the odds of getting it at least once must be the inverse of that, or 91%.
    Oh ok thanks for the explanation. Probability isn't my strongest suit so this helps.
  • Great write-up...

    But unanswered yet (maybe people know for sure now that the quests are live), is whether you need to have ALREADY BOUGHT the Chronometer BEFORE actually entering the quest and seeing whether the particular Class Awakening is there ??

    So that if by quest 13, you still have never seen the Class AG you want, you can then have saved the extra Intel in order to run the quest another 5 times (instead of having to buy the Chronometer in advance and then end up not really needing to use it).
  • HCMmcocHCMmcoc Posts: 54
    My understanding is that you will need to have brought one before entering the side quest.
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 12,077 Guardian

    Great write-up...

    But unanswered yet (maybe people know for sure now that the quests are live), is whether you need to have ALREADY BOUGHT the Chronometer BEFORE actually entering the quest and seeing whether the particular Class Awakening is there ??

    So that if by quest 13, you still have never seen the Class AG you want, you can then have saved the extra Intel in order to run the quest another 5 times (instead of having to buy the Chronometer in advance and then end up not really needing to use it).

    This doesn't directly answer your question, but I will mention that the Chronometer isn't sold separately, it is sold combined with an entry. So after running twelve times, you have a choice: buy your thirteenth entry with the Chronometer, or just buy an entry and then be committed to not using the Chronometer (because you won't have enough intel to buy it anymore).

    So if you want to delay buying the Chronometer, and assuming you're going to max out on entries, you can run 12. Then if you haven't gotten what you want yet, you have to buy the combo package, get entry 13 and the Chronometer, and then use it in that map no matter what.

    it is possible that you could buy the Chronometer after you enter a Rift, say Rift #6, but you can't wait to the literal end because you have to buy it with an entry.
  • Monto_Carlos28Monto_Carlos28 Posts: 246
    Jeez this its giving me a headache.
  • Thicco_ModeThicco_Mode Posts: 8,784 ★★★★★
    DNA3000 said:

    Great write-up...

    But unanswered yet (maybe people know for sure now that the quests are live), is whether you need to have ALREADY BOUGHT the Chronometer BEFORE actually entering the quest and seeing whether the particular Class Awakening is there ??

    So that if by quest 13, you still have never seen the Class AG you want, you can then have saved the extra Intel in order to run the quest another 5 times (instead of having to buy the Chronometer in advance and then end up not really needing to use it).

    This doesn't directly answer your question, but I will mention that the Chronometer isn't sold separately, it is sold combined with an entry. So after running twelve times, you have a choice: buy your thirteenth entry with the Chronometer, or just buy an entry and then be committed to not using the Chronometer (because you won't have enough intel to buy it anymore).

    So if you want to delay buying the Chronometer, and assuming you're going to max out on entries, you can run 12. Then if you haven't gotten what you want yet, you have to buy the combo package, get entry 13 and the Chronometer, and then use it in that map no matter what.

    it is possible that you could buy the Chronometer after you enter a Rift, say Rift #6, but you can't wait to the literal end because you have to buy it with an entry.
    Would holding 3000 Intel whenever you enter a rift be a viable strategy? My thinking is that if you see the one you want, you buy the chronometer and take it. If you don't, then you save the Intel until your next rift.
  • DoubleDeltaDoubleDelta Posts: 1,993 ★★★★
    @Kabam Miike @Kabam Zibiit @Kabam Lyra

    Are you able to clarify?

    Great write-up...

    But unanswered yet (maybe people know for sure now that the quests are live), is whether you need to have ALREADY BOUGHT the Chronometer BEFORE actually entering the quest and seeing whether the particular Class Awakening is there ??

    So that if by quest 13, you still have never seen the Class AG you want, you can then have saved the extra Intel in order to run the quest another 5 times (instead of having to buy the Chronometer in advance and then end up not really needing to use it).

    Theoretically, if I were to save 3000, keep that to one side. I would be able to purchase a chronometer once inside a rift, and use that to select a reward I want?

    Just thinking there aren't any rewards, in particular, I desperately want at this moment in time. However, having the ability to buy a chronometer after entering is a nice safety net if I see something I really want. But I don't want to waste 5 extra chances if there is nothing I want in the earlier rifts.
  • @DNA3000 , yep, guess you can’t wait to buy until inside the 13th time already (must buy prior to 13th).

    Unless someone is doing a lowest level Tier-1 Beginner Rift today, we’ll have to wait until tomorrow before having enough Intel to run an Epic Rift and see how the option to use a Chronometer would even work.

    But most should save up Intel for many days before doing any Rift, unless they know they are not gonna want to ever use a Chronometer.
  • Sidd777Sidd777 Posts: 127
    I just have one question and it’s not related to the chance of me getting something.

    So if I buy a tier 4 rift and enter it, and see that there’s a skill awakening gem that I rly want for some reason, but I haven’t bought the chronometer yet, will I be able to go to the intel store, purchase the chronometer bundle for 3000 intel, go back into the rift and use it? And when I say go to the intel store from the rift, I do not mean quitting the quest. Just using the drop down menu to go to the store and buy
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