Probability of obtaining a Single Class Gem

I’ve got cap iw but id much rather awaken fury/aegon, so I’m thinking of only using my t4 chrono once (and if) I see skill pop up.

Curious about my odds, I decided to calculate it and got a value of around 90%.

Way I did it is simplifying it for another situation: The probability of obtaining heads at least once during two coin tosses.

Listing all the permutations, you get 75% which is equal to 1 - (1/2)^2

Adjusting the values for this case it becomes 1 - (5/6)^13 or 90%.

With these odds I feel fairly confident but still aren’t sure because RNG can be , well RNG...

Comments

AzKicker316

Other posts have also calculated around 91% chance to SEE the specific AG within the 12 rifts. Good luck, I'm also wanting skill gem #1, with mystic as second choice.

DNA3000

I’ve got cap iw but id much rather awaken fury/aegon, so I’m thinking of only using my t4 chrono once (and if) I see skill pop up.

Curious about my odds, I decided to calculate it and got a value of around 90%.

Way I did it is simplifying it for another situation: The probability of obtaining heads at least once during two coin tosses.

Listing all the permutations, you get 75% which is equal to 1 - (1/2)^2

Adjusting the values for this case it becomes 1 - (5/6)^13 or 90%.

With these odds I feel fairly confident but still aren’t sure because RNG can be , well RNG...

Yes, that's the correct calculation.

If you want to know why that calculation works and why it is used, it comes down to a fairly simple principle of probability. The odds for a set of events happening which are independent (and that's a complex topic in the general case, how to know for sure two events are independent) is just the sum of the odds of each particular event happening.

So if you want to know what the odds of seeing a Skill AG at least once are, all you have to do is figure out every possible way that can happen and add them up. But that's kinda tedious. It could come up the first Rift, or the second, or the third, or the fourth. It could come up the fifth Rift and the eighth Rift together. How do you list them all and calculate them all and then add them up?

Fortunately, there's a shortcut. What are the odds of a Skill AG never coming up? Well, there's only one way that can happen. It fails to come up in Rift 1, and then it fails in Rift 2, and so on, for 13 Rifts. The odds of that sequence of 13 fails happening in a row are the odds of it happening the first time multiplied by the odds of it happening the second time, etc. So the odds of it happening once is 5/6. The odds of that happening 13 times in a row is (5/6)^13. That's about 9%. So the odds of that specific complete failure NOT happening is the inverse of that, or 1 - 9% = 91%. The difference between mine and yours is just round off.

If you have a second choice class, the odds get way better. The odds of seeing one of two different classes in thirteen Rift runs is 1 = (2/3)^13 ~= 99.5%.

If you really want Skill and hold out to the end, the odds of getting Skill after 12 Rifts is about 89%. After that, the odds of getting either Skill or your second best option in the last Rift is 2/3. So the odds of not getting Skill and not getting your second choice in the last Rift is 1 - (5/6)^12 x (2/3) ~ 93%. If you decide to take your second choice if it pops up in the last two Rifts, the odds of getting one of those is 1 - (5/6)^11 x (2/3)^2 ~= 94%.

To improve your odds of getting something you want, you could decide to settle for other things earlier and earlier, but then that would also reduce the chances of getting your first choice as well. You have to decide how long to hold out for the one thing you want, and when to start deciding to settle for less.

DrZola

I’ve got cap iw but id much rather awaken fury/aegon, so I’m thinking of only using my t4 chrono once (and if) I see skill pop up.

Curious about my odds, I decided to calculate it and got a value of around 90%.

Way I did it is simplifying it for another situation: The probability of obtaining heads at least once during two coin tosses.

Listing all the permutations, you get 75% which is equal to 1 - (1/2)^2

Adjusting the values for this case it becomes 1 - (5/6)^13 or 90%.

With these odds I feel fairly confident but still aren’t sure because RNG can be , well RNG...

Yes, that's the correct calculation.

If you want to know why that calculation works and why it is used, it comes down to a fairly simple principle of probability. The odds for a set of events happening which are independent (and that's a complex topic in the general case, how to know for sure two events are independent) is just the sum of the odds of each particular event happening.

So if you want to know what the odds of seeing a Skill AG at least once are, all you have to do is figure out every possible way that can happen and add them up. But that's kinda tedious. It could come up the first Rift, or the second, or the third, or the fourth. It could come up the fifth Rift and the eighth Rift together. How do you list them all and calculate them all and then add them up?

Fortunately, there's a shortcut. What are the odds of a Skill AG never coming up? Well, there's only one way that can happen. It fails to come up in Rift 1, and then it fails in Rift 2, and so on, for 13 Rifts. The odds of that sequence of 13 fails happening in a row are the odds of it happening the first time multiplied by the odds of it happening the second time, etc. So the odds of it happening once is 5/6. The odds of that happening 13 times in a row is (5/6)^13. That's about 9%. So the odds of that specific complete failure NOT happening is the inverse of that, or 1 - 9% = 91%. The difference between mine and yours is just round off.

If you have a second choice class, the odds get way better. The odds of seeing one of two different classes in thirteen Rift runs is 1 = (2/3)^13 ~= 99.5%.

If you really want Skill and hold out to the end, the odds of getting Skill after 12 Rifts is about 89%. After that, the odds of getting either Skill or your second best option in the last Rift is 2/3. So the odds of not getting Skill and not getting your second choice in the last Rift is 1 - (5/6)^12 x (2/3) ~ 93%. If you decide to take your second choice if it pops up in the last two Rifts, the odds of getting one of those is 1 - (5/6)^11 x (2/3)^2 ~= 94%.

To improve your odds of getting something you want, you could decide to settle for other things earlier and earlier, but then that would also reduce the chances of getting your first choice as well. You have to decide how long to hold out for the one thing you want, and when to start deciding to settle for less.

So there’s a ~10% chance you don’t get a shot at the one AG you want.

What’s Widow’s evade chance again?

Dr. Zola

bloodyCain

I love probability and permutations when I was in high school.
Too bad I forgot about it except the basic stuff.
This one in this post is quite out of my current knowledge.
Anyway, all the best of getting that AG

Snizzbar

I’ve got cap iw but id much rather awaken fury/aegon, so I’m thinking of only using my t4 chrono once (and if) I see skill pop up.

Curious about my odds, I decided to calculate it and got a value of around 90%.

Way I did it is simplifying it for another situation: The probability of obtaining heads at least once during two coin tosses.

Listing all the permutations, you get 75% which is equal to 1 - (1/2)^2

Adjusting the values for this case it becomes 1 - (5/6)^13 or 90%.

With these odds I feel fairly confident but still aren’t sure because RNG can be , well RNG...

Yes, that's the correct calculation.

If you want to know why that calculation works and why it is used, it comes down to a fairly simple principle of probability. The odds for a set of events happening which are independent (and that's a complex topic in the general case, how to know for sure two events are independent) is just the sum of the odds of each particular event happening.

So if you want to know what the odds of seeing a Skill AG at least once are, all you have to do is figure out every possible way that can happen and add them up. But that's kinda tedious. It could come up the first Rift, or the second, or the third, or the fourth. It could come up the fifth Rift and the eighth Rift together. How do you list them all and calculate them all and then add them up?

Fortunately, there's a shortcut. What are the odds of a Skill AG never coming up? Well, there's only one way that can happen. It fails to come up in Rift 1, and then it fails in Rift 2, and so on, for 13 Rifts. The odds of that sequence of 13 fails happening in a row are the odds of it happening the first time multiplied by the odds of it happening the second time, etc. So the odds of it happening once is 5/6. The odds of that happening 13 times in a row is (5/6)^13. That's about 9%. So the odds of that specific complete failure NOT happening is the inverse of that, or 1 - 9% = 91%. The difference between mine and yours is just round off.

If you have a second choice class, the odds get way better. The odds of seeing one of two different classes in thirteen Rift runs is 1 = (2/3)^13 ~= 99.5%.

If you really want Skill and hold out to the end, the odds of getting Skill after 12 Rifts is about 89%. After that, the odds of getting either Skill or your second best option in the last Rift is 2/3. So the odds of not getting Skill and not getting your second choice in the last Rift is 1 - (5/6)^12 x (2/3) ~ 93%. If you decide to take your second choice if it pops up in the last two Rifts, the odds of getting one of those is 1 - (5/6)^11 x (2/3)^2 ~= 94%.

To improve your odds of getting something you want, you could decide to settle for other things earlier and earlier, but then that would also reduce the chances of getting your first choice as well. You have to decide how long to hold out for the one thing you want, and when to start deciding to settle for less.
So there’s a ~10% chance you don’t get a shot at the one AG you want.

What’s Widow’s evade chance again?

Dr. Zola

It depends on who Miike's rig ray is aimed at when you're fighting her, but somewhere between 3% and 100%.

Thicco_Mode

I’ve got cap iw but id much rather awaken fury/aegon, so I’m thinking of only using my t4 chrono once (and if) I see skill pop up.

Curious about my odds, I decided to calculate it and got a value of around 90%.

Way I did it is simplifying it for another situation: The probability of obtaining heads at least once during two coin tosses.

Listing all the permutations, you get 75% which is equal to 1 - (1/2)^2

Adjusting the values for this case it becomes 1 - (5/6)^13 or 90%.

With these odds I feel fairly confident but still aren’t sure because RNG can be , well RNG...

Yes, that's the correct calculation.

If you want to know why that calculation works and why it is used, it comes down to a fairly simple principle of probability. The odds for a set of events happening which are independent (and that's a complex topic in the general case, how to know for sure two events are independent) is just the sum of the odds of each particular event happening.

So if you want to know what the odds of seeing a Skill AG at least once are, all you have to do is figure out every possible way that can happen and add them up. But that's kinda tedious. It could come up the first Rift, or the second, or the third, or the fourth. It could come up the fifth Rift and the eighth Rift together. How do you list them all and calculate them all and then add them up?

Fortunately, there's a shortcut. What are the odds of a Skill AG never coming up? Well, there's only one way that can happen. It fails to come up in Rift 1, and then it fails in Rift 2, and so on, for 13 Rifts. The odds of that sequence of 13 fails happening in a row are the odds of it happening the first time multiplied by the odds of it happening the second time, etc. So the odds of it happening once is 5/6. The odds of that happening 13 times in a row is (5/6)^13. That's about 9%. So the odds of that specific complete failure NOT happening is the inverse of that, or 1 - 9% = 91%. The difference between mine and yours is just round off.

If you have a second choice class, the odds get way better. The odds of seeing one of two different classes in thirteen Rift runs is 1 = (2/3)^13 ~= 99.5%.

If you really want Skill and hold out to the end, the odds of getting Skill after 12 Rifts is about 89%. After that, the odds of getting either Skill or your second best option in the last Rift is 2/3. So the odds of not getting Skill and not getting your second choice in the last Rift is 1 - (5/6)^12 x (2/3) ~ 93%. If you decide to take your second choice if it pops up in the last two Rifts, the odds of getting one of those is 1 - (5/6)^11 x (2/3)^2 ~= 94%.

To improve your odds of getting something you want, you could decide to settle for other things earlier and earlier, but then that would also reduce the chances of getting your first choice as well. You have to decide how long to hold out for the one thing you want, and when to start deciding to settle for less.
So there’s a ~10% chance you don’t get a shot at the one AG you want.

What’s Widow’s evade chance again?

Dr. Zola

If you put it that way, then we stocking up on awakening gems boys

DrZola

I’ve got cap iw but id much rather awaken fury/aegon, so I’m thinking of only using my t4 chrono once (and if) I see skill pop up.

Curious about my odds, I decided to calculate it and got a value of around 90%.

Way I did it is simplifying it for another situation: The probability of obtaining heads at least once during two coin tosses.

Listing all the permutations, you get 75% which is equal to 1 - (1/2)^2

Adjusting the values for this case it becomes 1 - (5/6)^13 or 90%.

With these odds I feel fairly confident but still aren’t sure because RNG can be , well RNG...

Yes, that's the correct calculation.

If you want to know why that calculation works and why it is used, it comes down to a fairly simple principle of probability. The odds for a set of events happening which are independent (and that's a complex topic in the general case, how to know for sure two events are independent) is just the sum of the odds of each particular event happening.

So if you want to know what the odds of seeing a Skill AG at least once are, all you have to do is figure out every possible way that can happen and add them up. But that's kinda tedious. It could come up the first Rift, or the second, or the third, or the fourth. It could come up the fifth Rift and the eighth Rift together. How do you list them all and calculate them all and then add them up?

Fortunately, there's a shortcut. What are the odds of a Skill AG never coming up? Well, there's only one way that can happen. It fails to come up in Rift 1, and then it fails in Rift 2, and so on, for 13 Rifts. The odds of that sequence of 13 fails happening in a row are the odds of it happening the first time multiplied by the odds of it happening the second time, etc. So the odds of it happening once is 5/6. The odds of that happening 13 times in a row is (5/6)^13. That's about 9%. So the odds of that specific complete failure NOT happening is the inverse of that, or 1 - 9% = 91%. The difference between mine and yours is just round off.

If you have a second choice class, the odds get way better. The odds of seeing one of two different classes in thirteen Rift runs is 1 = (2/3)^13 ~= 99.5%.

If you really want Skill and hold out to the end, the odds of getting Skill after 12 Rifts is about 89%. After that, the odds of getting either Skill or your second best option in the last Rift is 2/3. So the odds of not getting Skill and not getting your second choice in the last Rift is 1 - (5/6)^12 x (2/3) ~ 93%. If you decide to take your second choice if it pops up in the last two Rifts, the odds of getting one of those is 1 - (5/6)^11 x (2/3)^2 ~= 94%.

To improve your odds of getting something you want, you could decide to settle for other things earlier and earlier, but then that would also reduce the chances of getting your first choice as well. You have to decide how long to hold out for the one thing you want, and when to start deciding to settle for less.
So there’s a ~10% chance you don’t get a shot at the one AG you want.

What’s Widow’s evade chance again?

Dr. Zola
If you put it that way, then we stocking up on awakening gems boys

Hahaha...I’m thinking it only works one way...

Dr. Zola