Odds of getting bad champs from the 5* crystal
the_eradicator
Member Posts: 391 ★★★
So I have been pulling cyclops ,karnak ,civil warrior and magneto dupes for the past 2 months straight. Like what the hell. When there are so many champs in the reel . The distribution should be even. It does not seem that there is equal probability of pulling each champ from the crystal. Imagine doing incursions for the 5* crystal and all you get is 20 more levels on cyclops. There should be more ways to get 5* crystal . If the odds are bad you should increase ways to get them . And at this stage in the game it just looks awful to get such bad luck. I really feel like leaving. AW season rewards duped my karnak and 6* crystal duped punisher 2099. I am not even mentioning 6* cos its okay....6* is in its early stages. But we need more ways to get 5* champs atleast. The uncollected gives like 1 shot at it. You pull a trash champ you are done.
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When you work so hard towards getting AW rewards , getting into platinum 3 and higher . You need to have some kind of control over what you get. At-least hand us the nexus crystal so we have 3 chances at our fate. Especially during the flow tactics when so much of coordination is needed and items get used up .
All I am saying is Kabam needs to hear this out , there should be something to work towards . If people pull stuff like this , they will not be motivated to pay for stuff or grind events or anything.
Or,
The other solution -- Buff all the old champs who have become ir-relevant. They just do not hold up in this game at the moment .
I mean cyclops , magneto and all they are so powerful in the comics. And absolute dudds in the game .
1. first from dungeon crystal.
2. duped from another dungeon crystal
3. variant 1 100% reward got me another duped
4. last duped from incursion crystal
all dungeon and incursion crystal were the 27k shards one.
red cyclop> rocket raccon > punisher 2099 > blue cyclop were my last 6 star pulls btw
Each successive roll does not increase your chance of pulling said champion, it still remains an individual 1/170.
I’m afraid that’s just how the maths works. Eventually you will pull the champion you wanted, but it doesn’t become more likely with each successive crystal.
There should be more shards in game though with such a huge pool.
The primary problem is that there are a lot more champions who have little or no value; so you pull them more often. So you're probably going to get disappointed 60-80% off the time, depending on your existing roster. And the more advanced you get, the more disappointments you experience.
Add to that the facts that recall bias and selection bias are such that people who pull 5*Loki four times out of a dozen crystals (and that's a shame mate, sorry) are more likely to remember it (and way more likely to post about it on the forums) than people who pull Domino four times from a dozen crystals are.
Bear in mind this game is played by hundreds of thousands of people, and statistical abnormalities are to be expected. But if the only people who wrote posts are the statistical outliers, it's very easy to perceive a bias that isn't really there.
With that in mind: I keep track of my pulls - my last twenty 5* champions are:
- Captain Marvel Movie (woo-hoo!)
- Havok (woo-hoo!)
- Groot (reality check!)
- Killmonger (yay!)
- Magik (Dupe - wahey!)
- Hood
- Cable
- Symbiote Spiderman
- Captain Marvel Classic
- Cable (Awakened him)
- Colossus (Hmmm. He's good now, right?...)
- Ghost Rider (+20 Sig)
- Black Panther Civil War
- Beast
- Groot (Awakened him - oh well...)
- Falcon
- Man-Thing
- Domino (Oooooooh....)
- Crossbones
- Iceman (Mmm. This would have been a great pull two years ago...)
So I've pulled and Awakened both Groot and Cable in those twenty; and the majority of them are champions with little application in Act 6 or requirement game areas. On the other hand I've also drawn six or seven really solid champions; including a couple of candidates for R5. But if my twenty-first champion is Groot or Cable again, it would be easy to perceive a bias that isn't really there. It's just bad luck.If there are 170 champs in the game, and only 15 are considered great, 25 or so are considered decent. And the rest are considered bad pulls that makes a lot of sense.
Great: ~8.8%
Decent: ~14.7%
Bad: ~76.4%
Even if you consider 70 champs to decent pulls you have a 50/50 chance of pulling trash.
I mean like dupes of the champs I already have like cyclops dupe level 100 like thats heart-breaking.
Saw a post in the forums where a guy had a good view on why players were leaving the game - cos of one element of the game where our hard work yields rewards which are out of our control. Isn't that wrong ?
Like after completing Act 6 and getting daredevil or black panther or cyclops from the 6* crystal or the nexus crystals that would permanently make you so un-satisfied as if you were receiving punishment for completion of the hardest content in the game.
I really do hope Kabam does try to make this aspect less luck based , the featured crystals are fine cos you need to buy them . But these crystals are from the hard work and grinding of the summoners.
How about splitting the champs into a teir list and increasing the number of shards to get them to get a guaranteed shot at them , idk but something like this which makes players comfortable while opening and not leave them dead inside after AW season rewards or Act completion. Cos I have a lot of players who just left cos they cannot take it.
The more you open, the more likely you are to get something you want. If you are on the Sigil and are an active player, you can get 3K 5s shards a week. Without the sigil, iff you grind the 5s arena twice/week for shards, you can get 2-4K 5s shards a week. If you do Incursions you can get both 5s shards and artifacts that you can spend on 5s crystals. And then there is AW, SA, and the monthly EQ that rewards 5s shards.
4.20% Warlock
4.20% Groot
4.20% Ghost
4.20% Cable
4.20% Aegon
4.20% Karnak
etc.
That would put my mind at ease when I pull another garbage champ the 10th time in a row!
as a 5* after 6-10 crystals pop out.So that he can progress in the game. it is somtimes INSULTING, when you see ppl who never even came 10% on a 4* basic arena have those champions as 5* just by opening a random crystals. Its a big joke on our face. And yes hes also cavalier as me so there is no progression difference . Nd my last few pulls 30k shards wasted on twice duped hela, ryhno, nd iron man(2015).
30k shards on bin 30k!!
Can i show a middle finger? No i cant !
There is no sneaky person in Kabam HQ cackling evil as they hide certain champions from you..
These rigged crystals posts are getting tedious now.
it right now , just one of the hundred possibilities . The algorithm is smart and it knows all the activities and what you need in your account to be done with the game. But that does not matter.
Maybe you have not experienced it yet , but there are a lot (trust me when I say a lot) of people with really really bad luck and great skill , who play map 6 and get loads of 5* dupes of worthless champs.
There is no balance in this ,just expecting to get something good after putting all the hard work in . Is in the end it is just expecting.
I am only raising this point now cos maybe its time in the game now to remove some aspect of RNG from the big rewards , not the uncollected shards or anything. Just the big ones like Act 6 or Act 7 upcoming. That way we know we will get someone good , or make it like a 2019 or 2020 crystals cos they are atleast new.
“Good” and “bad” are subjective.
Look at the basic pool, count the number of champs you feel that are “good”. Then count the total number of champs.
Take the first number divided by the second number then multiply it by 100%. That’s the odds of a “good” champ.