Can someone calculate the probability of this??

🤷🏻‍♂️

Comments

PHCs have a 3% drop rate for 4*s

That means to get 1 is a 3/100 chance.
To get 2 is 3/100 x 3/100.
To get 3 is 3/100 x 3/100 x 3/100 which is 27/1000000 chance or 0.000027

X_E_Cutioner

PHCs have a 3% drop rate for 4*s

That means to get 1 is a 3/100 chance.
To get 2 is 3/100 x 3/100.
To get 3 is 3/100 x 3/100 x 3/100 which is 27/1000000 chance or 0.000027

Sorry but you're wrong ... I get what you did there but getting consecutive 4*s has low probability on it's own .... And getting 3 consecutive 4*s ... Well 🤷🏻‍♂️ .... I am sure it's lower than what you stated.
Or am i wrong? 😂😂 I am dumb ... I don't know 🤦🏻‍♂️

Destroy4589

Not really. Each crystal has an equal chance of getting whatever drop. It's not like the chance decreases just because you pulled one

Kill_Grey

PHCs have a 3% drop rate for 4*s

That means to get 1 is a 3/100 chance.
To get 2 is 3/100 x 3/100.
To get 3 is 3/100 x 3/100 x 3/100 which is 27/1000000 chance or 0.000027
Sorry but you're wrong ... I get what you did there but getting consecutive 4*s has low probability on it's own .... And getting 3 consecutive 4*s ... Well 🤷🏻‍♂️ .... I am sure it's lower than what you stated.
Or am i wrong? 😂😂 I am dumb ... I don't know 🤦🏻‍♂️

It's independent event probability, so yes, TP33 is right.

winterthur

What did you do in-between 45s to get 9 units?

Giuliameij

The chances of that happening is 3 times 3%. That's it.

Mathgeek

The chances of that happening is 3 times 3%. That's it.

Actually its (3%)³

Thicco_Mode

The chances of that happening is 3 times 3%. That's it.

That would mean the more crystals you open, the higher chance you have to get consecutive four stars. What mathgeek said is correct

Giuliameij

@Thicco_Mode every crystal it stays 3%. I might have said it wrong.

If you open a crystal and get a 4 star. you have a 3% chance to get a 4 star the crystal after. If you pulled 2, and want to pull another, you have a 3% change to get a 4 star.

It does not matter how many 4 stars you have pulled, the chances of pulling the next 4 star is still 3%.

But I must admid, from a pure probability standpoint, (3%)^3 is correct. Even if it is completely irrelivant.

Djin

0.000027

Kill_Grey

0.000027

Out of what?

unknown

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Thicco_Mode

@Thicco_Mode every crystal it stays 3%. I might have said it wrong.

If you open a crystal and get a 4 star. you have a 3% chance to get a 4 star the crystal after. If you pulled 2, and want to pull another, you have a 3% change to get a 4 star.

It does not matter how many 4 stars you have pulled, the chances of pulling the next 4 star is still 3%.

But I must admid, from a pure probability standpoint, (3%)^3 is correct. Even if it is completely irrelivant.

Yeah I think you just worded it wrong. This is correct

DarthPhal

@Thicco_Mode every crystal it stays 3%. I might have said it wrong.

If you open a crystal and get a 4 star. you have a 3% chance to get a 4 star the crystal after. If you pulled 2, and want to pull another, you have a 3% change to get a 4 star.

It does not matter how many 4 stars you have pulled, the chances of pulling the next 4 star is still 3%.

But I must admid, from a pure probability standpoint, (3%)^3 is correct. Even if it is completely irrelivant.
Yeah I think you just worded it wrong. This is correct

Incorrect. The OP wasn’t asking the probability of a single opening. He was asking the probability of pulling 3 consecutively, which is not the same.

This reply answers a question that was not asked.

Thicco_Mode

@Thicco_Mode every crystal it stays 3%. I might have said it wrong.

If you open a crystal and get a 4 star. you have a 3% chance to get a 4 star the crystal after. If you pulled 2, and want to pull another, you have a 3% change to get a 4 star.

It does not matter how many 4 stars you have pulled, the chances of pulling the next 4 star is still 3%.

But I must admid, from a pure probability standpoint, (3%)^3 is correct. Even if it is completely irrelivant.
Yeah I think you just worded it wrong. This is correct
Incorrect. The OP wasn’t asking the probability of a single opening. He was asking the probability of pulling 3 consecutively, which is not the same.

This reply answers a question that was not asked.

I was referring to his last statement
This is what the op was asking

But I must admid, from a pure probability standpoint, (3%)^3 is correct. Even if it is completely irrelivant.

Djin

0.000027
Out of what?

Or 0.0027%
It's very rare.

Kyuff

Good thing he didnt ask for the odds of pulling 4 star Venom, Hela and Ginger in that particular order.

Phew!

Doomsfist79

PHCs have a 3% drop rate for 4*s

That means to get 1 is a 3/100 chance.
To get 2 is 3/100 x 3/100.
To get 3 is 3/100 x 3/100 x 3/100 which is 27/1000000 chance or 0.000027
Sorry but you're wrong ... I get what you did there but getting consecutive 4*s has low probability on it's own .... And getting 3 consecutive 4*s ... Well 🤷🏻‍♂️ .... I am sure it's lower than what you stated.
Or am i wrong? 😂😂 I am dumb ... I don't know 🤦🏻‍♂️

So.. if you know that he's wrong.. you must know how to make the calculation yourself.. so why don't you do that?

Agent_X_zzz

If only my Cavs were like this

unknown

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DarthPhal

Also, to anybody who thinks the odds to pull a single 4* from a phc are the same as pulling 3 in a row...

You’re all invited to my home casino.

Notsavage19

Good thing he didnt ask for the odds of pulling 4 star Venom, Hela and Ginger in that particular order.

Phew!

(3/100*1/162)^3=0.0000000006351%?

I'm not sure though.

Feuerschwer

Good thing he didnt ask for the odds of pulling 4 star Venom, Hela and Ginger in that particular order.

Phew!
(3/100*1/162)^3=0.0000000006351%?

I'm not sure though.

This is accurate (assuming 162 champs in the 4* pool). Same odds for any specific combination of champs.

King_Leo321

My probability is Luck.

Edeuink

RNG

Holros

OK now my head is burning from all this maths,I guess probability isn't meant for me

TChallla

One time they were selling these crystals that would give you a cavalier grandmaster or some other kind. Cavalier was the most rare and i got it and then pulled a six from that one.

Menkent

Marvel Contest of Maths is my favorite part of this community.

Mathgeek

Marvel Contest of Maths is my favorite part of this community.

Definitely

Deadlygamer98

3x3x3= 0000000000000.3736255.72626.7666% chance. Am i smart now?